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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    He's always performed as a good QB when he had complimentary pieces around him. That doesn't make him elite.

    And he still takes too many sacks and fumbles. Colts sacked him 6 times and forced a fumble. He has 24 sacks and 6 fumbles to date in 6.5 games.

    So, "no".
     
  2. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Again, this is hardly unique. NFL history is littered with guys failing then going to other teams finding a fit and succeeding. Hell, Brees is a perfect example in New Orleans. Plunkett did it leaving NE for Oakland back in the day. Steve Young, Tampa for SF... Brett Favre, Atlanta for GB... it happens.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Those are exceptions to the rule, however (and I wouldn't include Favre in that group, as he had only four pass attempts for Atlanta). NFL history consists of a far greater percentage of quarterbacks whose level of performance didn't change significantly throughout their careers, despite changes in their surroundings.

    What that suggests is that there is a large percentage of quarterbacks for whom the necessary or optimal surroundings are unlikely to be assembled or unlikely to be sustained. Again it'll take a while to determine whether Tannehill is part of that group.
     
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  4. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  5. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    An elite is a select group.

    The sportswriters and media have said Tannehill has played in the top 5 QB stats ratings since he started with the Titans 6 games ago.

    That means Tannehill is playing as an elite QB, since the top 5 rating represents an elite group.

    You said he wasn't elite. The sports writers and media say he is, at least in the last 6 games. You were RONG. Your opinion doesn't nullify the independent support that the sports writers and media have stated.
     
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  6. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    :king:
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's not sports writers saying that- it's Tannehill's passer rating since it's the 2nd highest in the league. Kinda hard to say he's not playing elite today when he's better than 30 other QB's.
     
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  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    It is also kind hard when since he took over they have scored 13 more points per game and have almost 100 yards more per game
     
  9. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    And remember folks, the Dolphins are paying him $5 Million this year to put up those numbers.
     
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  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I've been telling everyone I told you so for quite a few years. Our substandard coaching staff and not Tannehill himself was holding him back while he was in Miami.
     
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  11. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Its supported by his z-score being so much worse than his career average.

    Also like I said, watching him it was very clear he was no longer prime Brady.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully cbrad will weigh in in his typically timely manner with the z-score based on the adjusted passer ratings, but I would be shocked if his season passer rating of 97.7 last year was significantly lower than his career passer rating of 97.1.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We still don’t know whether things internal to Tannehill, and not things in his external surroundings, are responsible for the difference in his performance. The above conclusion is also inconsistent with the fact that Tannehill had multiple coaching staffs in Miami.
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    He had incredibly inconsistent coaching. 3 HCs and like 5 OCs. He was in a different system almost every other year.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    He’s definitely played at an elite level during this stretch of games. The questions now become 1) what are the reasons for that, and 2) for how long can it be sustained. The fact that he’s playing at that level, in itself, answers neither of those questions.
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And he’s in a different system with different coaches this year as well. How does that explanation make any sense when he’s experiencing the same thing this year, yet doing so much better?
     
  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    He already posted all of Bradys Z-scores, maybe I'm interpreting them wrong which is a serious possibility, but it showed an enormous dropoff from his previous few years. That to me signals the start of a decline at his age. Also last year at the start of the year there were a ton of people saying hes done.

    Though he did pick up his play a lot if I'm remembering correctly towards the middle/end of the year.
     
  18. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Dude, go back to your pint and call me "RONG" when he's played at the top 5 level for multiple seasons, including playoffs and taken teams to the AFCC or SB. I'd welcome it. Till then, just bide you time and don't entrench on untenable positions. The only guy who's going to prove anyone right or "RONG" is Tannehill himself.

    I like Ryan Tannehill as much as the next guy, and think he was screwed over from the start by Philbin, but we've seen him play at a high level for spurts in the past. That doesn't make him elite as a pro, nor for his career, but I'm enjoying his success in TN and hope it continues.

    As for arguing that well the beat writers and media said so... LMGDAO. These are the same clowns that called him a "bust" a few years ago, said "he can't throw deep", labelled him a "coach killer", and heavily blamed him for things that went wrong in Miami under Philbin and Gase. They can fk right off.
     
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  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The coaching is competent? The team overall is better? It's allowing Tannehill to do what he's good at.
     
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  20. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Already asked and answered. System fit and surrounding cast. Same with all successful QBs and RBs.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's ok. The question will keep getting repeated as if it hasn't been answered.
     
  22. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Jared Goff played at an elite level for a while. Playing at an elite level does not necessarily make you elite. Consistently playing at an elite level makes you elite.
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    How do we know that with any certainty? Certainly we can’t let the difference in Tannehill’s performance alone determine the certainty of that.

    Also, that represents a change in your previous explanation, which focused only on the number of different coaching staffs he’s experienced, and not the quality of them.
     
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Come on man. You don't cycle through all those coaches if they're good. I'm simply pointing out, his coaching in Miami was bad. Really bad. That's not even debatable. So it's not a stretch to attribute success to a better environment.

    What I mean by that, is he's in an environment that is utilizing his strengths.
     
  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    1) Folks here have named a lot of reasons (RB, new city, longer to heal up, scheme, teammates, coaching, better confidence, etc.). Some of those may be right...or maybe none of them are. Rarely do we get a concrete answer on the "why".

    2) How long can any player sustain playing at a high level? Again, it's not something we can answer without using voodoo magic or a crystal ball. Only time will tell if this is the new Tannehill or simply a great stretch of games.
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    How good did the coaching in Tennessee look prior to Tannehill’s insertion?
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    For that to be consistent with the data, Tannehill and Marcus Mariota would have to be qualitatively radically different quarterbacks. Is that the case?
     
  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Update- Ryan Tannehill is now #1 in passer rating for the season after Cousins had a rough night.

    As others have said, it may not be sustainable but I'm happy for him nonetheless. Criticisms aside, we all know that he has always been a hard worker and tough as nails, so it's good to see something finally going his way. Go Titans!
     
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  29. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    What data? You've provided nothing but opinion, and continually toss peanut hulls and nitpick the data others do provide.

    In a passing league, Mariota has only ever topped 20 TDs once in his career. His previous high was 19 and he averages 15 passing TDs a season. That's abysmal in this league.

    The only times that Tannehill failed to get 19+ TDs in a full season was his rookie season and the injury seasons of 2016 (13 games), 2017 (DNP), and 2018 (11 games). He's currently on pace for ~20 TDs now in only half a season.
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Brady's career z-score is currently 1.0933 and was 1.1629 at end of last year. Brady year-by-year z-scores are posted here:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/tua-to-the-patriots.94787/#post-3228084

    For 2018 he ended with a +0.4004 while so far in 2019 he's -0.2491. Last year's z-score was the 2nd lowest of his career up to that point (and well below his career average) while this year is the worst ever and for the first time is negative, though it's not yet statistically significant. But those stats to the "eye" do support the idea he is regressing. Also, the regression can be seen within this year alone. His rating over his first 5 games is 99.43 while his rating since then is 81.22, though that's also not statistically significant because of tiny sample size.

    In any case, remember that a "career rating of 97.1" is what you get when you don't account for passer rating inflation – you don't adjust ratings to a common year. Last year saw the highest league average passer rating ever with a 92.9 so 97.7 is not much above average.
     
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  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The TD stat is partly due to Tannehill starting more games in a season than Mariota AND he's played 2 more years. Tannehill started all 16 games 4 times while Mariota never once did that though he did start 15 games twice. If you look at TD% the difference isn't that big:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MariMa01.htm

    In any case, statistically speaking the probability the game-by-game ratings (after adjusting to a common year) for both QB's "come from the same QB" is still a very high 65.76% so they're not that different from each other from that point of view. What might be surprising to some is that Mariota's 2019 ratings (game by game) compared to Tannehill's 2019 ratings, so on the same team and with the same surrounding cast, are ALSO not statistically significant. The probability those ratings come from the same QB is 21.34%.

    However.. that's almost certainly due to the small sample sizes so that percentage can change quite a bit with each extra game played.
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The data consists of simply the quantitative difference between Mariota and Tannehill’s performance this season, with the same coaching staff, system, and surroundings.

    You can’t say the system fit and the surroundings are responsible for the difference in their performance without also supporting the notion that they are qualitatively radically different players. If the same system fits one player so much better than the other, then those two players must be extremely different.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2019 at 12:41 PM
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The question for me is whether Brady’s performance in 2018 was significantly different from his own career average, not from the average in the league.
     
  34. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    It made him elite while he played at an elite level.

    Go back and review the meaning of the word elite. It is not defined as an all time great, which is the conceptual argument you are making against his being an elite player.

    He was at one time an elite player as even you had referenced.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's one of the most infuriating things about trying to discuss this stuff with him. Never an answer, just dismissal or ignoring of other positions.
     
  36. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Actually it does answer one of those questions. If he played at an elite level, then during that period of time he was elite!
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No, the only year in Brady's career that is statistically significant is 2007 with a p-value of 0.0083. Exclude 2007 and no year is statistically significant: p-value is 0.0784. Also, so it's clear, when I said "statistically significant" in the post you quoted I meant statistically significant relative to Brady's own career ratings, not league average (the z-scores themselves are the only relations to league average).
     
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  38. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    So many words with so little meaning. If someone plays at an elite level, then they were elite players during that period of time.

    If you are looking for an "all time great" kind of status, then pick a word that has that meaning.

    Spek Engrish, use a damn dictionary Mr. RONG.
     
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  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It seems unlikely that a player who has been near the top of the league his entire career seemingly would be jumped by a bunch of other QB while still playing to the level of excellence he set himself.

    I'm not saying it's impossible and I am interested in your question being answered as well, but logically it wouldnt make sense to me to work that way.
     
  40. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I suspect you actually believe that. I'll take it into account as I read your spewing.
     

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