1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    27,334
    31,204
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    You use the film to analyze what the QB does well and what he does poorly. You use it to isolate him from the surroundings. That's what QB evaluation is. So when I said for years that Tannehill is really good at P/A passes and would put up great numbers in a system that used more of that, it was based on my analysis of his film. I was not surprised that when he went to a system that asked him to do more of what he did well he played much better. It was never about volume. It was about the system.
     
    Irishman, The Guy and resnor like this.
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,742
    7,867
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    You're right. Teams routinely go through 3 head coaches and like 5 OCs during the first 7 years of players career.

    The problem is, the only proof you will accept is statistical...which is simply a mathematical representation of reality. You want to compare stuff to league norm...but can't even show what league norm is. So then you reject it all, and make assumptions.
     
  3. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    526
    572
    93
    Mar 4, 2020

    The problem with this Resnor is that Guy keeps citing Russell Wilson who has not had 3 head coaches and 5 OC's in his first 7 years in the NFL. Pete Carrol is one of the best head coaches in football. Another thing that has contributed to the success of Wilson. Not saying wilson is not great because he is.

    Nobody here thinks his success would be as great if he had been drafted by the Bengals or the Raiders. It matters where you get drafted and the quality of the organisation.
     
    Mcduffie81 and resnor like this.
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Sure, but play-action is meaningless when there is no threat of the run game, i.e., when offenses are forced to pass the ball almost exclusively because of game circumstances. Those circumstances were kept to an extreme minimum in 2019, partly because of Tannehill but also partly because of his extremely good running back. Not sure that's going to be replicable from season to season, and if it isn't, then how does Tannehill compensate if and when that forces him into circumstances in which he's played poorly historically?

    In other words, it is about passing volume (in part), because higher-volume circumstances are precisely the ones in which Tannehill's primary strength (play-action passing) is ineffective, and his primary weakness (sensing and evading pressure) is front and center.
     
  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,742
    7,867
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    You keep saying these things about the run game, but ignore that Henry was NOT putting up those numbers BEFORE Tannehill took over.
     
    Irishman, Mcduffie81 and Etrius24 like this.
  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    On your point about not all throws being equal, RT also completed the most statistically difficult pass in 2019 (according to advanced statistics), that roughly 50-yarder to I think AJ Brown at the 1 yard line against the Texans, where he was going out of bounds and RT dropped it in a freaking bucket in the only catchable place...from 50 yards out. And the 91 yard TD to AJ Brown in the Raiders game...in his own endzone, two guys in his face, 50 yards in the air on a dime w/o room to step into it. Come on now...how many people can hit those throws?
     
    Irishman, Etrius24 and resnor like this.
  7. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    526
    572
    93
    Mar 4, 2020

    Great points, great post.... 100% agree. To make those plays consistently... To read defenses at the line and call his own plays... To be that efficient as a passer with that level of accuracy and completion ... While making the tough throws for the longest distances. He has taken his game to the next level

    He was easily a top ten QB last year.
     
    Irishman, PhinFan1968 and resnor like this.
  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    2,198
    1,912
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    This is actually false.

    Play action isn't really tied to the success 9f the running game statistically. It's been posted on this site and perhaps even in this thread.

    Go ahead and look it up.

    It seems counter intuitive, but if you want to go strictly statistics you are waaaaay off base.
     
    FinFaninBuffalo likes this.
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    It's not that play-action is tied to the success of the run game -- it's that a fake handoff does nothing to the opposing defense when the defense knows you aren't going to run the ball, i.e., at times in games when teams have to pass almost exclusively. They aren't biting on play-action fakes at those times, and those were precisely the times that Tannehill had extremely few of in 2019, compared to the league norm.

    The question becomes, what happens if and when his passing volume can't stay that low for whatever reason, play-action fakes become meaningless, and Tannehill's difficulty with sensing and evading pressure takes center stage, when opposing teams are pinning their ears back?

    Look no further than the fourth quarter of the playoff game against Kansas City for a sampling of what would perhaps be most likely -- three sacks in one quarter, 3+ expected points for the other team associated with the plays Tannehill was involved in.
     
  10. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    526
    572
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Guy

    You can flip the same coin to the other side... If the Qb play is below average... The defense will just key in on the running game to win. With Mariotta stinking up the joint... Defenses keyed in on one thing and one thing only... The running game... They played a run defense... Challenging the Titans to beat them with the pass. Tannehill became the starter and instantly did just that. When teams had to change the strategy and play pass defense... It opened things up tremendously for Henry. And it made the Play action much more effective. Henry was efficient... Tannehill was efficient. It was a nice balance. That ideally is what you want.... When you have a healthy balance defenses have to respect both the pass and the run and that opens up many new opportunities.
     
    resnor likes this.
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    I have no argument against that. My argument is that the instances in which the team wasn't able to preserve that balance were extremely few compared to the league norm. The question is whether that's replicable, because if it isn't, then Tannehill's warts are going to show as the team has to pass the ball more.

    Again, he's not a guy who's going to carry you in the passing game, so if the team can't preserve that balance and the passing game has to become emphasized for whatever reason, Tannehill is likely to play considerably more poorly, whereas players like Wilson, Brees, and Mahomes are not.

    Again we're talking here not about whether his performance was good, but whether it's replicable. What I'm saying is that it's replicable to the extent that they can keep his passing volume low and keep him out of must-pass situations, and I'm not sure that's something that can be sustained from year to year with any high degree of probability.
     
  12. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    526
    572
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Guy

    Dude There were games Tannehill won last year because he threw and he ran and it was not because of Henry.
     
    Irishman and xphinfanx like this.
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    What does it mean to you that there were games with the Dolphins in which he did the same thing? What does it mean to you that there were games in 2019 in which Ryan Fitzpatrick did that?

    In other words, you have a long way to go before you've supported that assertion in a way that has any meaning with regard to establishing that Tannehill's performance in high-volume passing or must-pass situations -- should they become far more prevalent for him -- should be expected to be any different in the future than it has been in the past. In a season in which his passing volume was extremely low, it's real tough to say there was an indication that his performance changed significantly in high-volume situations.
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    He didn't see any of the games so he has no idea.
     
    Irishman, Etrius24, resnor and 3 others like this.
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    One of the more stable QB stats:

     
    resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.
  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    upload_2020-5-26_8-39-2.png
     
    resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.
  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    upload_2020-5-26_8-39-49.png
     
    resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    upload_2020-5-26_8-40-23.png
     
    resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    upload_2020-5-26_8-41-11.png
     
    resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.
  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    upload_2020-5-26_8-50-50.png
     
    resnor, Mcduffie81 and PhinFan1968 like this.
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    This guy (and some others) still doesn't seem to get that what we're talking about here is not whether he played well in 2019, but whether it's replicable. If it isn't replicable, he's Andy Dalton in 2015 or Nick Foles in 2013. If it is replicable, then he's a whole different caliber of QB.

    Notice we're now 8,220 posts in here and nobody here has ever answered the question of how much money he would put down on Tannehill's more or less replicating his 2019 season. And that's smart on their part -- people would be wise not to put down much if any.
     
  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Of course the topic became is it replicable AFTER the topic was:

    1. Will he ever get a chance again?
    2. Will he be better than he was in Miami?
    3. Will he continue this "hot streak"?
    4. Will he be able to lead his team to the playoffs?
    5. Will he win a playoff game?
    6 Will he win ANOTHER playoff game?

    You've never ONCE explained why you think it might not be replicable. You have been shown that:

    1. The Titans have had similar run/pass ratios for 4 years.
    2. Play action passing works whether or not the run game is successful.
    3. Tannehill is the best play action passer in the league.
    4. Tannehill had the best passer rating from both a clean pocket and under pressure.
    5. With Tannehill at QB the Titans had the highest yards per play in the league.
    6. Tannehill led the league in far too many passing categories for it to be a fluke.
    7. He doesn't need to replicate his 2019 numbers to be successful.

    I answered it. I would bet EVERY PENNY I would have won from you betting against Tannehill's 2019 season.

    Now how much would that have been?
     
    resnor likes this.
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Add to the highlighted portion above the fact that, like Tannehill in 2019, both Dalton in 2015 and Foles in 2013 had 1) abbreviated seasons, 2) low passing volumes per game compared to league norms, and 3) very strong (compared to the league norm) correlations game-by-game between the efficiency (yards per rush) of their run games and their own performances (passer rating).

    All of the above (the highlighted portion in the quote and the information just above) represented about 10 hours of information gathering and analysis on my part. For you to say I "haven't once shown why I think it may not be replicable" is ridiculous. I've probably put in more work than anyone on the planet regarding that topic.
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Not relevant unless you are going to show that a statistically significant number of abbreviated seasons are not replicable. You are cherry picking AGAIN.

    But NOT low passing volumes compared to the Titans of the last few years or the Raven, Seahawks, 49ers, Vikings, Colts, etc etc this year. So, it is DEMONSTRABLY REPLICABLE.

    Irrelevant again. This says NOTHING about the Titans ability to replicate. I am completely confident that the Titans running game will again benefit from the efficiency of Tannehill's passing game.

    I don't care how much time you've wasted.None of that says ANYTHING about whether the Titans can be effective again next season. Here are a few things in favor of them being able to:

    1. They are returning almost all of their players.
    2. Tannehill will have a full offseason as the starter and will get starter reps in practice.
    3. AJ Brown will be in his second year.
    4. Tannehill was the top QB in the most stable QB stats.
     
    resnor likes this.
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Yeah the point was just that I've shown pretty well why I think the replicability of his season is questionable. If you disagree that's fine, but I've certainly shown why I think that in a way rarely shown here (with lots of work, objective information, and analysis).
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Hey, Guy, you refused to answer this AGAIN. How about it? How much am I playing with?
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Let me fix that for you.

    (with lots of wasted work, tons of scrapped studies (because they didn't support your preconceived opinion), numerous false starts and switched arguments, a nearly complete abandonment of previously held positions (passer rating and YPA are king), objective cherry picked information, and biased analysis, all to further an 8 year long vendetta AFTER ALL OF YOUR 2019 PREDICTIONS WERE SHOWN TO BE WRONG!!)
     
    Irishman likes this.
  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    You've spent a lot of time pointing to Tannehill's past performances as an indicator of his future performances.

    Shouldn't that same approach apply to the people debating Tannehill's performances? Shouldn't YOUR failures in anticipating how Tannehill would play in 2019 be used to discount your predictions for 2020?

    Prior to 2019 I held the position that Tannehill would be a top 10 QB on a quality team. You held the opposite position. Answer this simple question by responding A or B:

    Who was correct in their opinion:

    A. FinFanInBuffalo
    B. The Guy
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  29. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    27,334
    31,204
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    I used the P/A pass as an example. It is not the only pass Tannehill throws well. The basic and obvious concept is that if you have the QB throw more of the passes he throws well and fewer of the passes he struggles with then he will perform better. It's about having a system that highlight's your most important player's strengths and masks his weaknesses. And what you saw was that Tannehill last season, in a better fitting system, produced in both low and high volume passing games last season. Because it's about the system, not the volume.
     
    Irishman, FinFaninBuffalo and resnor like this.
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    If that (the highlighted portion) were accurate, I would agree with you, but his performance plummeted 33 passer rating points on average in high-volume passing games in 2019, which is again consistent with his history with the Dolphins. And again that isn't something seen with the vast majority of the league's elites in high-volume games. So the system was effective for him if it was conditioned on low passing volume.

    And that stands to reason, because the system is about preserving balance, running the ball effectively, and throwing off of play-action. When balance is unable to be maintained because of game circumstances, all of that falls apart, and Tannehill is then forced to function like an elite QB who carries an offense through the air. That he can't do anywhere near as well.

    So his 2019 passer rating is predictive of his performance under pretty highly circumscribed circumstances. Everything has to hang together and keep him in a certain kind of limited role in the offense.
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    False. You are implying a cause/effect relationship that you have not proven.

    Secondly, the "highly circumscribed circumstances" were shared by many of the 2019 playoff teams. The circumstances are a goal of all offenses. The only thing you are pointing out is that the Titans were more effective at it than most.

    upload_2020-5-26_13-53-17.png
     
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Whether it's something striven for by all offenses has no bearing on how Tannehill performs when those circumstances aren't accomplished.

    Nobody is arguing the system is ineffective. What I'm arguing is the degree to which Tannehill is dependent on it, in comparison to the league's best QBs, who are not. That has a critical bearing on whether his 2019 performance is replicable.
     
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    You haven't proven he is DEPENDENT ON IT.
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    You are arguing nonsense. During the 2019 season, Tannehill had THREE GAMES BELOW A 108 PASSER RATING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    In all but three of his games he had a passer rating higher than the 4th highest in the league

    There is not nearly enough data to make ANY CONCLUSIONS WHATSOEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Your whole line of argument is unbelievably stupid.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    I'd say a career-long decrement in performance as a function of 1) high-volume passing games, and 2) range of high numbers of pass attempts (31-40) in individual games, that makes him different than the league's best QBs in that regard is proof enough. But of course anyone can simply sit back and say whatever they want about that information.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    This has been disproven numerous times by cbrad.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    And I'm not making conclusions in that regard -- I'm simply saying there was nothing he demonstrated in 2019 that suggests his historically poor performance in high-volume games is any different than it was with the Dolphins. And so the question becomes, is his 2019 performance replicable if and when his passing volume increases above the extremely low 1.98 standard deviations below the league average?
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    2,713
    942
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    This was cbrad's response to the point I'm making here:
     
  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    LOL..............

    Okay sure...... his 117.5 passer rating and 9.6 YPA are just the same as his performance in Miami, because you have cracked the code..... it is passing volume!!!!!!!

    How about our bet?

    I would bet EVERY PENNY I would have won from you betting against Tannehill's 2019 season.

    Now how much would that have been?

     
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    1,306
    1,861
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Where EXACTLY does he say that Tannehill was DEPENDENT on anything??????????????????

    You also know there were other posts where he directly refuted your claim that Tannehill was different than other QBs in that regard.
     

Share This Page