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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Because throwing a 30 yard pass late in a game to a stud TE on a seam route late in a game is much more likely a completion than trying to throw a deep route to Bess late in a game.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And that's true for earlier in the game, as well. Why the difference in performance for the quarterback as a function of where we are in the game?
     
  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Because if you're a bad team, with bad blocking, you aren't trying to throw those deeper routes early in the games.

    All throws are not equal. Passer rating isn't telling what throws were being attempted/made. Certainly you can understand that throwing a bunch of 5-15 yard passes is very different than throwing a bunch 15-30 yard passes, and you can understand that late in a game you don't have time to be picky about what throw to make. You have to make longer throws with less time, cause you're also now fighting the clock.

    Literally NONE of these basic things makes it into your statistical predictions.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And where is the evidence that they should? Is the evidence that you believe them to be true sufficient for that? You're not presenting any actual objective evidence that those variables should be considered.

    I could just as easily say that Tannehill's passer rating should've shot up on passes 31-40 because defenses were lagging off and playing prevent and allowing underneath throws, thus allowing him to pad his statistics during garbage time.
     
  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Teams dont generally throw with their starting QB in garbage time so I dont think that would hold up. Unless you mean when behind, but still Its not typical to keep your starter out in a game you cant win.

    Whether they should or shouldnt encompass certain things is entirely opinion on both sides.

    That said, another issue is that the QB rating was never created to be a definitive ranking system for a QB. It's just a guideline that shows how well an offense is functioning overall.

    A better name for it would be something like "Quarterback Offensive Efficiency" or something similar, because simply the word rating makes people believe it measures a thing it doesnt.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, the point was just that we could come up with numerous explanations for the findings, with none of them being supported by objective information. I could just as easily say that defenses were lagging off Tannehill and preventing the downfield pass during throws 31-40 in games, and so his passer rating on those throws should've been even higher. Hell, we don't even know the degree to which the team was behind during those throws.

    The point is, if people are going to poke holes in objective findings, they should do it with objective info and not theories. If you believe the findings are explained by X, Y, and Z, then go get the relevant objective information and present it in support of that belief. Don't just do it with a theory, and then think that because there's at least one person who agrees with you on a message board, then the theory must be valid.

    Well if that's true, then what are we to make of Tannehill's (or the Titans') 2019 passer rating, since the thread revolves around the topic of what it indicates about his individual ability?
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    This is why I asked how it compares to other QBs. You have to know if other QBs have dropoffs in ratings on throws 30 and above. If they do what is the average drop in rating? You don't just post ratings. Of course the team and situation matters in regards to late game ratings.

    Further, the REASON rating has become important is because the Tannehill detractors used his rating, and rating differential, for years to"prove" Tannehill was not good. I've argued FOR YEARS that passer rating is not a good judge of QB play, as it is far too dependent on other factors. QB rating is really a measure of the team success offensively. So people started shoving Tannehill's ratings down your throat this off-season, because he demolished your criticisms of his past ratings.
     
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget that you are talking to a guy that harped on passer rating for years and yet had no idea how much they vary for a QB year over year. Like, completely baffled that a 10 - 30 point swing was common when QBs put up seasons in the 105 and up range.

    he had to delete a post where he touted the 87 - 117 variation that Brady had as evidence that elite QBs vary at so much higher levels. Whereas punks Like Tannehill only vary between 92 and 117......
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but I already asked what a finding in that context would mean to you, and you said you'd attribute it to Tannehill's unique surroundings on the Dolphins. What good does it do to explore the whole league with hours of work if the finding, regardless of what it is, will be attributed to the 2012-2018 Dolphins exclusively?

    You're essentially saying that the information regarding the entire league is meaningless because whatever context that puts Tannehill's performance in will be attributed to the 2012-2018 Dolphins anyway. Whatever we find with regard to how Tannehill deviates from a league norm must be because of the 2012-2018 Dolphins -- it can't be because of Tannehill. So why do the hours of work? We already know the answer.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No, you asked me what my conclusion would be if it differed significantly from Mahomes/Brees/Wilson. Not all QBs. If we are talking about those 3, then certainly other factors other than Tannehill can be at work.

    Now, if you said that the average decrement in passer rating on the league overall was 10 points, and Tannehill was like 25 points, then I would say we need to look further at this. In that case you'd have to see if Tannehill's teams were more in line with the teams that the guys with bigger decrements were on, and see how Tannehill's decrement compared to those QBs. If Tannehill's teams could be shown by various things to be better than those teams, then you could argue that Tannehill's decrement is more about him.

    Even in that case, then I'd argue that it's certainly in your best interest to keep Tannehill under 30 throws, but, given that high volume situations are usually a result of being behind, which is often the result of things other than QB contributing to that, I would still say that it isn't in and of itself an indictment of Tannehill.

    So, no, you can't simply trot a single stat out and say that it means anything.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the highlighted portion (above) nobody is ever going to show convincingly, especially with this audience, so I'm reluctant to do that amount of work if the interpretation of the findings hinges on that. You all here have the 2012-2018 Dolphins made out to be the Washington Generals, and there's no way of disproving that convincingly.

    Anyway, I was curious enough to compare Tannehill with two of his contemporaries in this regard, and here are the results (workload ~90 minutes, so you can imagine how long it would take to do the whole league):

    Ryan Tannehill 2012-2019 Passer Ratings
    Throws 1-30: 92.1 (2726 attempts)
    Throws 31-40: 75.9 (471 attempts)

    Andy Dalton 2012-2019 Passer Ratings
    Throws 1-30: 89.6 (3304 attempts)
    Throws 31-40: 82.6 (629 attempts)

    Russell Wilson 2012-2019 Passer Ratings
    Throws 1-30: 97.8 (3437 attempts)
    Throws 31-40: 111 (340 attempts)
     
  13. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Guy

    What were Tannehill's numbers this past season in games where he had 31-40 attempts.... Hmmm? Over 72% completion and a passer rating over 133!

    Just stop man you are not helping yourself any here. I appreciate the tenacity... I do... but are you trying to troll yourself at this point?
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    First, we're not talking about his passer rating in games in which he had 31-40 pass attempts. We're talking about his passer rating on attempts 31 to 40 within games and across his career, separating those attempts from attempts 1 through 30 across his career. In other words, we're looking at what happens during the period of time in games when he's operating under a heavy passing load.

    Second, what you're talking about above consisted of 18 attempts in 11 games -- 1.6 per game -- and so that elevated his career passer rating on attempts 31 to 40 in games a mere 2.2 points (73.7 to 75.9). Compare that to Drew Brees for example who had 73 such pass attempts in 11 games in 2019 -- 6.6 per game -- and a 130.4 passer rating on those attempts.

    Third, it's unlikely that his performance on his 18 attempts in 2019 represented a statistically significantly difference from what occurred in his previous 453 pass attempts in that range during his career, for which his passer rating was a mere 73.7. Think about it like this -- if he threw just one pass in the 31-40 range in 2019 and it was a 99-yard touchdown pass, would you think it meant anything with regard to his career as a whole within that passing range? Well he probably didn't throw enough passes more than that one for there to be any meaning, either.

    It's hard to argue that he established something different for himself in that range of passing load (31-40) in 2019 when he didn't do a whole lot of it.
     
  15. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dude

    It has been long established in this thread... over and over and over... Ryan Tannehill today is a better QB than Ryan Tannehill was in 2012.

    Furthermore... You have tried to move the goalposts on this and have been called out on it again and again.

    We witnessed this as you have tried to change arguments you have against Tannehill 137 times. ( Exaggeration, but not by much )

    Tannehill played on ****ty teams with ****ty coaches when he was young. He gets to a half-decent team with a half-decent coach as a mature QB and he lights it up. Just admit he has grown... You were wrong about him... and let's move on.

    The argument can be made that because Tannehill was so efficient with the football... Because he did not throw a lot of interceptions.. Because he led the #1 scoring red zone offense in football and the #2 scoring offense overall since he took over as starter last season... That the Titans were not behind late in games and they no longer had to throw the football. Hence the lower number of attempts. The coach wanted to chew clock and control the ball and he happened to have one of the ten best running backs in football on the roster..

    If the Titans were down two scores in the second half they cannot use Henry this way... Tannehill would have to throw, throw, throw

    When you complete over 70% of your passes have the 4th highest QB rating in the history of the league and are stingy throwing interceptions... This is a really easy argument to make.

    Tannehill's growth allowed Henry to be MUCH more effective as a runner. Look at the numbers for Henry with and without Tannehill as the starting QB. Henry's numbers dramatically improved. Teams could not focus on Henry.. When they stacked the line Tannehill could read the defense... buy time with his legs and burn teams finding the open receiver. Mariotta could not do these things... So teams were honing in on stopping Henry... Because Mariotta was not capable of making them pay for stacking the line.

    As soon as Tannehill started making plays the play action with Henry became lethal...

    I seriously question if you actually watched the games that Tannehill played in last year as the Starting QB?
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I haven't disagreed once in the thread that he played well in 2019 as a whole.

    The question is, was 2019 for Tannehill like just about any year for someone like Drew Brees, or was it like 2015 for Andy Dalton -- a one-year anomaly amidst an otherwise average career?

    There are contextual factors specific to 2019 that suggest it may have been a one-year anomaly, and the biggest ones of those were:

    1) his extremely light passing load (1.98 standard deviations below the league average in quarters 1 through 3).

    2) the absence of a correlation between his passing load and his own passing efficiency (YPA) game-by-game; in other words, his passing load wasn't light because of his own efficiency.

    3) the comparatively astronomical correlation game-by-game between his passing load and Derrick Henry's efficiency (yards per rush); in other words, the better Derrick Henry ran, the lighter Tannehill's passing load.

    4) the astronomical correlation (compared to the league norm) between his passer rating game-by-game and Derrick Henry's efficiency; in other words, the better Derrick Henry ran, the better Tannehill's performance.

    5) the decrement in his performance in high-volume passing games, which is consistent with his previous career; so when his passing load was heavy, his performance plummeted in a way not seen with the vast majority of the league's elite QBs, and that was consistent with his career previously.

    Now, like you said, there are also factors that suggest 2019 was not a one-year anomaly, but when we have just one year we're comparing to six previous ones, I submit we should err on the side of believing the one year to be an anomaly if there are significant suggestions of such, like those noted above.

    And this is where Vegas sits as well, with Tannehill's 2020 league MVP odds remaining about average among QBs since he signed his contract. So when there are stakes involved (money) and we aren't just bantering on a message board, the prevailing belief is that 2019 was an anomaly. If the prevailing belief was that 2019 was indicative of Tannehill's ability going forward, his league MVP odds would be right up there with those of Mahomes, Wilson, and Brees. After all, he led the league in passer rating in 2019.
     
  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention early in a game there is no pressure to force throws.

    Instead of forcing that ball in to the TE 30 yards downfield you can check down or throw it away and live another day.

    It's not remotely the same as being down by 7 in the late 4th Quarter.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So how does that explain that Russell Wilson's career passer rating of 97.8 on throws 1-30 in games vaults to 111 on throws 31-40?
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It doesn't. Nor should it be expected to. Are you arguing that all QBs should be expected to have that experience?

    Here's some things that need to be answered for that stat to have any meaning:

    1. How's many throws of that kind does he have? Does he have enough for a legitimate sample size?

    2. The offensive players around him.

    3. Despite those incredible numbers, what is Wilson's overall rating for those games?
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The person I responded to made a statement in that regard that applied to the league as a whole, so I suggest you take that up with him.

    340

    They're the same ones he had on throws 1-30, yet his passer rating vaults from 97.8 on those throws to 111 on throws 31-40.

    Russell Wilson's average passer rating in high-volume passing games is 96.9 (over his career). In low-volume passing games it's 101. He has a career decrement of just 4.1 points in that area.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2020
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes I understand that it's the same players aground him for each set of their throws. Better players result in better passer ratings at every block of throws.

    Also, passer rating doesn't tell you if his throws were short throws where receivers made players miss, or if the QB was getting his rating lowered by making harder throws and thus completing fewer. It's really dependent on have situations and coaching style.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The variation among QBs in the league with regard to performance in high-volume passing games is a function of quality of QB, with the elite ones performing far better than the average and below average ones under those circumstances. That suggests situational or environmental variables aren't driving the bus, but rather that the ability of the QB is. Surely you can't say all the elite QBs in the league are elite because they're the beneficiaries of superior surroundings, and the average and below-average ones are not.

    As for why Wilson specifically plays so well during passes 31-40 in games, I suspect it's the following:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/13302797/total-qbr-updates-2015-nfl
     
  23. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

     
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  24. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

     
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  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill's season is even more impressive when you compare Tannehill to Mariota.

    upload_2020-5-25_8-51-47.png
    upload_2020-5-25_8-52-11.png

    Nearly identical time to throw and expected completion percentage. Tannehill had more than 2 yards longer YPA and 11% higher completion percentage.

    That is the difference that drove the entire Titans offensive resurgence. That game them balance and made them difficult to defend.
     
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  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wilson was often under pressure BECAUSE of his play style.
     
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  27. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Guy will move the goal posts and say this does not matter...
     
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  28. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have been trying to get Guy to admit to this for months. The play action does not work if the passing game is not legit. Defenses have to fear the QB.... The QB has to show he can find the open man make plays and move chains... Then defenses cannot just stack the line to stop Henry.

    As another poster pointed out. ( Another point I made months ago ) Tannehill was reading the defense at the line and calling plays. Making it very difficult to defend against. Because he identified the coverages and saw what was coming he put his receivers and Henry in the best possible position to succeed. It is no coincidence that Henry's yards per carry went up by 50% the minute Tannehill became the starter


    Guy spent months on here trying to diminish Tannehill saying that the benefit was all the other way and Henry was the reason for Tannehills success... and then when that failed we got the... He can only succeed in games where he does not throw the football 40 times... Another variation of the the excuse that the success is all due to Henry.
     
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  29. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And speaking of an excellent point made by Resnor I think

    When comparing Wilson and Tannehill. Not all throws are equal... Tannehill led the NFL in yards per pass... He was making longer more difficult throws. So when he amassed the 4th highest QB rating in the history of the NFL he did it making harder throws than any other QB in the league. Not 2 yard dump offs to Henry and let him do all the work

    Chew on that for a while.
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's neither here nor there when he plays so well in the face of it. If you have the ability to evade pressure and make plays, why not allow receivers to become open downfield with the additional time, while the pressure mounts? So he's under a greater frequency of pressure because of an exceptional skill on his part.

    I'm sure you've seen a middle screen. The intent there is to allow pressure and then throw over the top of it. Wilson's style is analogous, only he's throwing downfield after evading pressure.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If you're going to challenge people and say something like "chew on that for a while," you should probably make sure you're presenting accurate information first.

    As measured by CPOE, the difficulty of Tannehill's passes in 2019 was just shy of a standard deviation above the league average. He wasn't making "harder throws than any other QB in the league."
     
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You seem to be unable to grasp the idea that we're in agreement that he played well in 2019, and that the question now is whether it's more or less replicable or was a one-year anomaly amidst an otherwise average career. Post #8176 covers this.
     
  33. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Guy

    I am not sure why you are going back to the Russell Wilson well over and over... Tannehill is a mobile QB that did an excellent job of using his legs buying time and salvaging broken plays last year.... He was even half-decent running the football. Tannehill had a much higher QB rating while making more difficult throws.

    I ****ing love Russel Wilson... I think he is a fantastic QB. The problem with this discussion is that for 200 pages you have tried to make arguments against giving praise to Tannehill. After a dozen of your arguments were squashed completely on here you came back with a generic response of: "Tannehill had a good 2019" ( But it was only one season )

    Thing is Tannehill had an INCREDIBLE 2019 season.
    #1 red zone offense
    #2 scoring offense
    #3 in completion %
    #1 in Yards per pass
    #1 in QB rating

    You are really making it interesting using Wilson over and over when Tannehill was more efficient, more accurate, making more difficult throws than Wilson last year with a less talented team. You may want to revisit your arguments and make amendments.
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The reason Wilson is relevant is because he's an example of an elite QB in the league who has been an elite QB year after year. He's not a guy who had just one great season amidst an otherwise average career. And when you examine Tannehill's season in 2019 and compare it to a typical season for someone like Wilson (or Brees, or Mahomes), you find that there were contextual factors, or situational advantages, for Tannehill that don't typically exist for the league's elites. These factors raise questions about whether Tannehill's performance will be more or less replicable.

    Again, there's a reason Tannehill's 2020 league MVP odds are about average among the league's QBs. If the prevailing belief was that Tannehill's 2019 season would be more or less replicable in 2020, his league MVP odds would be up around those of Mahomes, Wilson, and Jackson. He wouldn't be down the list with Sam Darnold.
     
  35. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Russell Wilson has played on great teams almost his entire NFL career. He came into the league with an elite dominating Running back. Seattle has always had multiple talented receivers and almost always has had great tight ends.

    So your situational advantage argument reeks of garbage

    Tannehill for most of his career has played on ****ty teams with horrendous coaching. If you wanted to argue situational advantages.. Overall it Makes Tannehill look even more impressive and Wilson slightly less so.
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah there isn't anybody here providing convincing arguments based on objective information regarding the strengths or weaknesses of QBs' environments. Scan back through the nearly 8,200 posts here and see if you can find one. All there is is personal opinion.
     
  37. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tons of stats and information have been presented to you... You just keep ignoring it. ( Because it disproves your personal opinion. )
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Find me the stats on the quality of QBs' environments, with a comparison to a league norm. There is nothing but conjecture regarding that. The 2012-2018 Dolphins were the Washington Generals, and every other team is the Globetrotters.
     
  39. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    IMO one of the problems is trying to find a stat that is all encompassing and all-knowing. There are too many variables. There is no objective stat that will replace sound film work.
     
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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue is that we're trying to determine the level of quality of Tannehill's surroundings (players and coaches) 2012-2018, in comparison to the league norm. Is there any sort of film work that can provide a definitive determination of that?
     

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