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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's what the issue boils down to, folks:

    If someone told you that the quarterback with the highest passer rating in the league was in a high-scoring, high passing volume shootout with another team, would you expect the QB with the highest passer rating in the league would have a good chance of winning that game?

    If you knew nothing else about that quarterback, your answer would likely be yes, and in fact it should be yes.

    However, if you knew the quarterback was Ryan Tannehill, then your answer should be no.

    And that isn't true for quarterbacks like Mahomes, Brees, and Wilson, despite that their passer ratings were lower than Tannehill's in 2019.

    In other words, Ryan Tannehill's 2019 passer rating isn't predictive of his performance in high-volume passing games, like the passer ratings of Mahomes, Brees, and Wilson are.

    So what does that mean? Well it means that for Ryan Tannehill to play like he did in 2019, his team has to limit his passing volume, and it therefore needs personnel ingredients that Mahomes, Brees, and Wilson's teams don't need, such as, number one, a bell cow running back who can shoulder the offensive load and play extremely well under those conditions.

    So the point is that Tannehill is dependent on his surroundings, whereas the other QBs noted above are not.
     
  2. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, because Mahomes has stud WRs across the board.....
     
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  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    And that is the STUPIDEST strategy a team can have in building a team! It’s the dumbest there is...here’s the epitome of how stupid that strategy is.

    For years, the Indianapolis Colts were perineal playoff teams with “The Sheriff”, Peyton Manning as it’s quarterback. But come 2010, all of those years of counting on the sheriff to write ticket after ticket (touchdown throws) had finally taken its toll. Manning nagging neck that had been bothering him for years culminated at the end of the 2010 season, requiring him to have neck surgery that caused him to sit out the entire 2011 season. And how did the Colts fair? A 2-14 season with Kerry Collins at quarterback.

    So when you bring up how Kansas City or New Orleans is Seattle doesn’t need a balanced offensive game because of Mahomes, Brees or Wilson, just remember what happened to the most electrifying team in the NFL when it’s ONLY offensive weapon went out for the season.

    I give credit though to Sean Payton and the Saints. At least he was smart enough to tailor his team to suit Bridgewater while Brees was out.
     
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  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    ^^^THIS^^^
    Post of the page!!!!!
     
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  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We're talking about two different things.

    You're talking about optimal strategies for team performance.

    I'm taking about what it takes to get Tannehill to perform as well as he can individually, and how that makes him different from the elite QBs in the league.

    Read post #8121 and try to follow along.
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That post reflects the same misunderstanding of the topic you have. I'm not surprised you're lauding it.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's more difficult to make the throws Tannehill was making with limited attempts than it is if you're throwing 30+ times a game.

    It's literally the argument we used to have about Russell Wilson.
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He has flipped nearly every one of his old arguments. They used to be:

    1. Passer rating and YPA were the ultimate measures. Now it is passing %.

    2. Supporting cast was irrelevant. Now it is all important.

    3. QBs make the players around them better. Now it is the other players propping up the QB.


    I had the same arguments with him comparing Wilson and Tannehill in the 2013-2016 time frame. My position was that Wilson had it easier due to the better running game, coaching, and defense. His position was that there wasn't much of a difference between the Dolphins and Seahawks in those areas and (blah, blah, blah #2 and #3 above). He spent a ridiculous amount of time trying to show that none of that mattered and it was all about the QB. We even had a running joke on Finheaven. We made up our own hashtag - #AllAboutTheQB.

    Then, as now, he took up extreme positions. When many of us made the case that supporting casts and coaching matters, he inevitably come back with some nonsense accusing people of thinking that QBs don't matter. I invented another phrase for that - "Just because it is not all about the QB doesn't mean that is not at all about the QB."

    And so it went for YEARS, until 2019 when Tannehill met every one of his (and the other Tannehaters) benchmarks for QB play. Magically, the rules changed..... Even early in 2019, he was harping about passer rating differential. He dropped that like a hot potato when Tannehill was the leader after 3 or 4 solid starts.

    Here is the big difference in what I used to argue in the Tannehill/Wilson debate - I never said Wilson was dependent on the supporting cast. I never took credit away from him. I also never guaranteed how Tannehill would perform with the advantages that Wilson had. I merely questioned how his performance and Tannehill's performance would compare if their surroundings were switched. I felt the two QBs were much closer in ability than the numbers showed. We got a glimpse of it in 2016 when (for the first time) Seattle did not have a top running game and Miami's was decent. Magically, Tannehill had a higher passer rating than Wilson that season.

    Then 2019 happened. Tannehill finally got to enjoy what Wilson enjoyed. Bingo, #1 in the league in passer rating and YPA and a trip to the AFC Championship game. I have no doubt that if the Titans had the Seattle defense from the 2012-2016 era, they would have won the SB this year.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
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  9. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree that Wilson and Tannehill have always been much closer in talent than the stats suggested or most realized. IMO Wilson is a better QB and given the option I would take Wilson over Tannehill, but it's not a huge difference. I have Wilson as a top 5 QB and Tannehill as a top 10 QB. Top 5 is better, but you could certainly win with either guy. IMO the difference is close enough that Tannehill would have won that same SB Wilson won had their positions been switched. I would guess that if they had been switched (Tannehill in Seattle and Wilson in Miami) you would have the same people on the other side claiming that Tannehill is so much better than Wilson b/c that's what the stats would reflect and Tannehill would have that SB win.
     
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  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's true that there is an optimal (i.e., not too few and not too many) number of pass attempts in a game for Tannehill, but it isn't 30+.

    Over his career these are his passer ratings based on numbers of attempts in individual games:

    1 to 10 attempts: 89.3
    11 to 20 attempts: 90.6
    21 to 30 attempts: 97.7
    31 to 40 attempts: 75.9

    So the "sweet spot" for him appears to be 21 to 30 pass attempts, but certainly not 31 to 40 attempts. You'd much rather him have 11 to 20 attempts than you would 31 to 40, and that's consistent with my overall point here -- if you limit his passing load, you get far better performance out of him.

    [The above data represented about 90 minutes of work on my part. This isn't something readily obtainable on the internet.]
     
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  11. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    1 reason @ryantannehill1 was so effective in 2019 was his ability to attack almost all areas of the field efficiently. Per Next Gen Stats, RT had a minimum passer rating of 102.5 throwing to every part of the field except 2. His best was the deep middle at 143.8!





    [​IMG]
     
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  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I am in 100% agreement on all points.

    Dolphins fans have spent far too much time debating who would be the better QB in crappy circumstances. The fact is that all QBs require decent circumstances to succeed.
     
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  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That is an insane chart....

    Now let the debate begin over why Tannehill can't throw deep right or behind the LOS on the right......LOL. must be some kind of inherent flaw. I'm sure DCs will force him to throw ONLY to those two areas of the field next season. He is DOOMED!
     
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  14. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    If we were talking about the Titans running game creating large openings and easy throws I'd probably agree with Guy.

    The thing is though, the throws he made were still at an above average to elite difficulty level a good portion of the time.

    The coverage wouldnt have been any tighter had they run it once or a hundred times.

    They simply don't have WR talent or TE talent to drop back and throw it 45 times. Regardless of who is at QB.

    When you're pointing at a set of statistics that show only one player requires a certain circumstance but ironically almost noone else has that same correlation, I'd urge anyone to consider if that is a statistical aberration rather than a holy truth.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I really do appreciate that work. However, it really doesn't address what I'm saying. The fewer attempts you have, the more important each one is. Also, the fewer easy passes you attempt, the harder it is to compete more difficult ones.
     
  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    They also don't have the pass blocking to do that either.
     
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  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/18/tennessee-titans-ryan-tannehill-elite-difficult-throws/

    For a guy who “just hands the ball off”, Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill was exceptional at making difficult throws in 2019.

    Of course, that’s the narrative that Tannehill’s naysayers push, claiming that he really isn’t that good and certainly not worth the four-year, $118 million extension the team gave him because he simply hands the ball off and lets Derrick Henry do the work.

    When someone says that, you can tell they didn’t watch Tannehill during the regular season and are solely basing that statement on two of the three playoff games in which Henry carried the Titans on his back.

    Long story short: Tannehill was completing difficult throws that otherwise should have lowered his 70.3 percent completion rate — which was second-best in the NFL — another eight percentage points.

    And it’s not like Tannehill was dinking and dunking, either. His 9.6 yards per attempt and 13.6 yards per completion ranked as the best in the NFL, on top of his league-best passer rating of 117.5.

    While there’s no question Tannehill thrives off the play-action setup by Henry and the running game, the Titans’ franchise quarterback has shown time and time again that he has the ability to make all the throws.

    In fact, he ranked as the best quarterback in the NFL last season in four different types of throws based on Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions’ metrics, according to Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar.

    The evidence that Tannehill brings much more to the table than his detractors give him credit for is overwhelming. When you break it all down, it’s understandable why the Titans wanted to lock him up this offseason.
     
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The Tennessee management should have read the forums here, and they would have realized why they are completely wrong about Tannehill.

    Lolol
     
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  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The fools have shown the whole league that they have no faith in Tannehill..... pass ratios!!!!!!
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue is that the more passes you throw, the more room there is for failure (and success). Tannehill historically has been a QB who fails with the additional pass attempts. Note for example the finding above that his career passer rating on attempts 31 through 40 in games is but 75.9.

    Compare that to Patrick Mahomes, for example, whose career passer rating on attempts 31 through 40 in games is 104.7. Russell Wilson's career passer rating on attempts 31 through 40 in games is 111. These are staggering differences.

    Again, the issue is that you have to limit his load so that he can avoid experiencing a number of pass attempts that makes his performance plummet. And that means you need Derrick Henry, and that means Tannehill is dependent on his surroundings in a way these other QBs are not, despite that his passer rating in 2019 was higher than theirs.
     
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Guy...this is where stats fail you, and understanding how humans work would help. QBs, just like pitchers, need to get warmed up and they have to be confident before throwing those very difficult throws. So, while contrary to what stats would say, throwing more does help QBs make this difficult throws when necessary. So, for Tannehill to get very limited throws, and still lead the league in so many categories is insane.

    There are a myriad of reasons outside of Tannehill's control that contribute to that lower of a passer rating.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah we're not talking about limiting him to an absurdly low number of throws. What we're talking about his keeping him out of high-volume games. Like I showed above, his sweet spot historically appears to be on passes 21 through 30. He's plenty warm by then. What he can't do are passes 31 through 40, even though he's just as warm. And that isn't the case for QBs like Mahomes and Wilson.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, when it comes to high volume games, there are myriad of reasons why we can assume his rating is lower. Losing teams are usually high volume. Teams that lose often are bad teams, with not great players. So, on a bad team throwing to average at best players, is an accurate representation of a QBs ability? Throwing a ton while losing means the defense just sits on routes. Anyone who watched any Miami games while Tannehill was there, saw an offense that couldn't get receivers open further than like 10 yards downfield, and didn't have time to throw it that far anyway.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Ryan Tannehill's win percentage with the Dolphins (for the games he started) was 47.7%. His career passer rating on throws 31 to 40 in games with the Dolphins was 73.7. His career passer rating on throws 1 to 30 in games -- with the same team -- was much higher.

    Drew Brees's teams in 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 7-9 each of those years -- a similar win percentage of 43.8% -- yet his passer ratings on throws 31 to 40 in games those years were 96, 91.9, and 96.8.
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Ok? Do most QBs have higher ratings on throws at the end of high volume games? Again, intuitively, it makes sense that throws late in losses would fare worse. You trying to push the ball , more prone to risky passes because you have to take more chances, fatigue in the part of all players on offense... The list goes on and on. Shouting a stat, without context, is meaningless. Not showing that other QBs don't fare similarly means that the stat isn't actually showing anything.
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Also what was his passer rating on throws 1-30? Whydid you leave that out?
     
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  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL at anyone trying to ding Tannehill for his passer rating in 2019.....
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Why would we compare the QB with the highest passer rating in the league to just "most QBs" or "other QBs" in general and not the best ones in the league? The comparisons above were with Mahomes, Wilson, and Brees.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That was in post #8130.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Not for the other QBs.
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why would you not? You still want to see if Tannehill dropping 15-20 points is similar to other QBs. You're acting like his drop is abnormal.
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And where does the disconnect come for you that you can't understand that throwing to Graham, Colston, Cooks, and Stills (Saints receivers in 2014)as a veteran QB is going to be very different than throwing to guys like Hartline, Bess, Legedu as a young QB going through constant turnover at HC and learning new offensive systems every other year.

    Oh, I don't recall Drew Brees having to run for his life

    Plus Brees played indoors a ton. It simply isn't a fair comparison.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Let's do this this way: what would your conclusion be if Tannehill's career decrement in passer rating from throws 1-30 to throws 31-40 is significantly worse than that for Mahomes, Brees, and Wilson?
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This is why I asked the above question. If you already have your conclusion, I'm not doing hours of work. Your rationale above doesn't explain why there would be a larger decrement for him on throws 31-40, but I'm not beating my head against the wall.
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I wouldn't draw a conclusion simply from that.

    This is the problem. You search for a stat that supports your premise, instead of looking at everything and then coming to a conclusion.
     
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  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hahaha

    Right. Of course. I mean, you do hours of stat stuff anyway, bit won't do the actual stat work to show that your stats have any real meaning.

    There is a massive difference between Tannehill throwing a **** ton from his rookie year onward, while having terrible olines, constant coaching turnover, sub average players, and new offensive systems every other year, and guys like Brees/Wilson/Mahomes. If you can't understand the differences, then the stats aren't going to bring you to the right conclusions.
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And that would be what, exactly. School me oh wise one.

    Those differences don't explain why there would be a larger decrement for him than for the best QBs in the league on a certain subset of pass attempts. All of those QBs function within the same teams for every throw they make. They don't change teams on throws 31-40.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is his whole MO. Period. Always has been. He has been called out on it repeatedly. He cherry picks data.

    He has been shown repeatedly that there is no evidence that Tannehill's performance difference between high volume and low volume passing games is any different that other QBs on average.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You literally don't actually read what I write.

    In your world these things don't matter:

    1. Being an established veteran QB vs being a raw, unpolished new to the league QB

    2. Having the same head coach for like 10 years vs changing head coaches 3 times in 5 years

    3. Running one offensive system for years vs changing offensive systems every other year

    4. Throwing to Colston/Graham/Thomas/etc vs throwing to Hartline/Bess/etc

    All of those things significantly contribute to passer rating.
     
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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Those things certainly matter, but they don't adequately explain these particular findings.

    Why is Russell Wilson for example able to have a career passer rating of 111 on throws 31-40 in games, which is actually higher than his overall career passer rating on all throws, whereas Tannehill's career passer rating on throws 31-40 in games is but 75.9, which is far lower than his overall career passer rating on all throws?

    Again, these guys don't magically switch teams on throws 31 through 40. Hartline and Bess are there on throws 31 through 40 just like they are on throws 1 through 30. Russell Wilson doesn't get a surrounding player transfusion of the greatest receivers and offensive linemen of all time on throws 31 through 40.
     

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