Ryan Tannehill

"The Guy wrote:

If you trade an NBA player to another team and have him stop shooting three-pointers and his field goal percentage increases significantly, you can't surmise on the basis of that that he's suddenly become a better three-point shooter.

Prior to 2019 the percentage of games in which Tannehill threw an above-average number of passes was 38. This year that figure was 18%, and in those games he played nowhere near like he did in the others.

What about an NFL QB where his YPA increases and his passer rating increases?

"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:

:deadhorse::smackhead:

Did you REALLY think he was going to give it up? He's all in still trying to argue his 2 pair beats a straight flush. :sidelol:

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Did you REALLY think he was going to give it up? He's all in still trying to argue his 2 pair beats a straight flush. :sidelol:

He's a high volume poster with a very low completion percentage

"cbrad wrote:

That's already answered in that graph for a single season. Just pick whatever your threshold is for "high" passer rating (e.g., 110 or above in 2019 numbers) and look at all points to the right of that threshold. Tannehill is either around average or slightly above depending on where you put that threshold.

This is his whole agenda:

1. Show that Tannehill isn't as good in some way as QBs he rates as elite
2. Imagine that Tannehill will have to face off against one of those QBs in passing frenzy shootout
3. Predict that Tannehill won't fair well
4. Make the assumption that an average QB wouldn't fair well either
5. Conclude that having Tannehill on the team is no better than having an average QB
6. Therefore Tannehill is an average QB

There are assumptions and/or cherry picking at every step.

1. He wants to pick and choose the QBs in the comparison. It is Mahomes or Wilson or Rodgers or Brees. Never once has he mentioned Cousins or Jimmy G (also high passer rating QBs).
2. He assumes the game will be a shootout with a large number of passing attempts by Tannehill. Nevermind that we have 12 games of evidence that Tennessee can score on par with KC in a balanced attack and that they beat KC that way this season.
3. He assumes that Tannehill won't do well and requires cherry picked stats to make that claim.
4. He assumes other QBs won't do well.
5. Bogus assumption since it ignores all of the other games that teams play. It is essentially ignoring the 9-3 record that it took to get here.
6. Completely ridiculous conclusion based on nonsense.

"adamprez2003 wrote:

He's a high volume poster with a very low completion percentage

Along with a huge number of INTs and no TDs.

"cbrad wrote:

Just pick whatever your threshold is for "high" passer rating (e.g., 110 or above in 2019 numbers) and look at all points to the right of that threshold. Tannehill is either around average or slightly above depending on where you put that threshold.

I predict he is scrambling to find the "right" threshold.......

"cbrad wrote:

That's already answered in that graph for a single season. Just pick whatever your threshold is for "high" passer rating (e.g., 110 or above in 2019 numbers) and look at all points to the right of that threshold. Tannehill is either around average or slightly above depending on where you put that threshold.

How does that tell us where the best QBs in the league are on the graph?

There's also no reason to look at career ratings here because Tannehill's career rating is close to average, so you wouldn't want to compare him to Brady, Wilson, etc... So the claim should be specific to 2019 and Tannehill's slightly better than expected (purple line) there.

We have a problem with restriction in range in that year, however, and the relation isn't linear. In low-volume games Tannehill's average passer rating was 118.6, with a standard deviation of 26.5. In high-volume games, his average passer rating was 87.3, with a standard deviation of a mere 4.95.

So again, in low-volume games in 2019 he bounced all over the place. In high-volume games he played far more consistently poorly. Obviously that's going to diminish the correlation between pass attempts and passer rating game-by-game that season.

And that's true for his career as well, where the variation in low-volume games is much higher than the variation in high-volume ones.

"cbrad wrote:

Well.. here's a surprise. I don't yet know how to explain this data, but this is what you get when you plot correlations between passing attempts and passer rating as a function of 2019-adjusted ratings for every QB season from 1978 with 150+ passing attempts:

First thing to notice is the purple line which is the league average correlation at each adjusted passer rating.

The slope is negative!

I have no idea WHY that is, but what that says is that the better a QB you are, the WORSE you tend to do as passing volume gets higher, relative to how all QB's do in high-volume situations (including bad ones). I thought (as you probably did) that the slope would be positive, but that's not true. Why that is, I have no idea, but that's the data.

The green circles are Tannehill's season-by-season correlations, with the far right one being for 2019 of course. So.. in 2019 Tannehill is actually slightly ABOVE league average in terms of the decrement in passer rating vs. passing attempts. In Miami, he was mostly below. Either way, for any of this to be statistically significant it would have to be beyond the middle 95% along a vertical line, and none are. Well.. I already did the hypothesis test and we know none of the data points are statistically significant, but you can see the distribution now.

So in summary: Tannehill is actually slightly above average for QB's with high passer rating (not in any "statistically significant" way of course) in 2019 w.r.t. how his passer rating is affected by passing attempts. And remember.. this is season by season so if you want to compare to Wilson or anyone else, you need to do it season by season. Oh, and the correlations you're quoting aren't correct if you properly adjust. You can't just lump everything together without adjustment or you're picking up passer rating inflation.

I suspect the slope is negative because I feel that the more a QB throws, the more likely the team is behind and with less and less time available to catch up, bigger risks are taken in the passing game.

This seems to be a logical conclusion for me to make.

"The Guy wrote:

How does that tell us where the best QBs in the league are on the graph?

If you're using passer rating as a proxy for QB ability, then obviously all data points to the right of whatever threshold you choose for "high" passer rating correspond to the "best" QB's.

"The Guy wrote:

We have a problem with restriction in range in that year, however, and the relation isn't linear.

No we don't because the relation is linear for the population. Of course, since Tannehill's correlation is near zero for 2019 any "linear" extrapolation will also be zero correlation. And the rest of your comments (which I didn't quote) were just cherry picking data.

Anyway, you're circling back to arguments already disproven before. Unless you have something new I think we're done here.

"Irishman wrote:

I suspect the slope is negative because I feel that the more a QB throws, the more likely the team is behind and with less and less time available to catch up, bigger risks are taken in the passing game.

This seems to be a logical conclusion for me to make.

You're reading the graph wrong. The x-axis is passer rating not passing attempts. That graph is saying that the better the QB is (more to the right on the x-axis = higher passer rating), the correlation between passing attempts and passer rating becomes more negative. In other words, the better the QB is the worse the decrement becomes with higher number of passing attempts.

What FinFaninBuffalo said in post #5042 however does make some sense:

I'd be willing to bet that if you could somehow factor in game situation (i.e. playing from behind) it would turn out that the better QBs were being asked to throw in more difficult situations or asked to make more difficult throws.

I can't test that, but it's plausible that the better a QB is the more they're asked to do when behind, leading to bigger decrements.

"cbrad wrote:

If you're using passer rating as a proxy for QB ability, then obviously all data points to the right of whatever threshold you choose for "high" passer rating correspond to the "best" QB's.

Right, and there are many of those that have vastly different correlations than Tannehill's. If Tannehill clusters into one area on that graph, and players like Mahomes and Brady cluster into a significantly different area, what does that tell us?

"cbrad wrote:

You're reading the graph wrong. The x-axis is passer rating not passing attempts. That graph is saying that the better the QB is (more to the right on the x-axis = higher passer rating), the correlation between passing attempts and passer rating becomes more negative. In other words, the better the QB is the worse the decrement becomes with higher number of passing attempts.

What FinFaninBuffalo said in post #5042 however does make some sense:

I can't test that, but it's plausible that the better a QB is the more they're asked to do when behind, leading to bigger decrements.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, thanks for all the effort. I've got to admit, I'm not trained in statistics, but what you post makes perfect sense. I can understand what you are saying without having the knowledge to do the analysis myself. So, kudos for knowing how to do it and knowing how to explain it.

This thread delivers. It's like watching a Rocky fight...only Rocky doesn't come back to whoop Clubber's ass at the end.

And the hits keep comin'! Tannehill has been voted the Professional Football Writers of America's "Comeback Player of the Year" and "Most Improved Player."

https://www.paulkuharsky.com/news/ryan-tannehill-doubles-up-on-pfwa-awards

"He became just the third quarterback in NFL history to post a completion percentage over 70 and a yards per attempt over 9, joining Joe Montana and Sammy Baugh.

A decisive thrower, Tannehill has thrived in play-action situations. He led the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating and 9.6 yards per attempt.

With six games with a passer rating of 130 or higher, he tied Russel Wilson (2019), Tony Romo (2014) and Aaron Rodgers (2011) for the most in a season since 1960. Four of those games came consecutively, against the Chiefs, the Jaguars, at the Colts and at the Raiders."

[ATTACH:full]

And that was despite not getting starter reps until the week he started his first game......

"The Guy wrote:

Right, and there are many of those that have vastly different correlations than Tannehill's. If Tannehill clusters into one area on that graph, and players like Mahomes and Brady cluster into a significantly different area, what does that tell us?

Well.. here are Brady's and Wilson's year-by-year data points plotted against Tannehill's 2019:

You can see that the trend line is pretty good in predicting the distribution of the stats for both QB's. In other words, both those QB's (and I suspect others too) tend to perform around that trend line over time. So based on the single data point in 2019 Tannehill is doing slightly better than expected even for QB's like Brady and Wilson.

In any case, no one should mistake Tannehill for QB's like Brady and Wilson that have proven they are some of the best year after year, at least not until he proves he can do the same. But at least for 2019 there's no statistical basis for the claim that the correlation between his passing attempts and passer rating is somehow worse than would be expected for similarly performing QB's.

And the hits just keep coming:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001097228/article/titans-must-attempt-to-lock-up-ryan-tannehill-and-derrick-henry

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

With six games with a passer rating of 130 or higher, he tied Russel Wilson (2019), Tony Romo (2014) and Aaron Rodgers (2011) for the most in a season since 1960. Four of those games came consecutively, against the Chiefs, the Jaguars, at the Colts and at the Raiders."

It should be pointed out that Tannehill did it in 10 games while Romo and Rodgers did it in 15 and Wilson did it in 16.

"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:

And the hits just keep coming:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001097228/article/titans-must-attempt-to-lock-up-ryan-tannehill-and-derrick-henry

Yep...been saying that a couple months now. Gotta keep BOTH.

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

This thread delivers. It's like watching a Rocky fight...only Rocky doesn't come back to whoop Clubber's *** at the end.

I think everyone has whipped him.

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

And the hits keep comin'! Tannehill has been voted the Professional Football Writers of America's "Comeback Player of the Year" and "Most Improved Player."

https://www.paulkuharsky.com/news/ryan-tannehill-doubles-up-on-pfwa-awards

"He became just the third quarterback in NFL history to post a completion percentage over 70 and a yards per attempt over 9, joining Joe Montana and Sammy Baugh.

A decisive thrower, Tannehill has thrived in play-action situations. He led the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating and 9.6 yards per attempt.

With six games with a passer rating of 130 or higher, he tied Russel Wilson (2019), Tony Romo (2014) and Aaron Rodgers (2011) for the most in a season since 1960. Four of those games came consecutively, against the Chiefs, the Jaguars, at the Colts and at the Raiders."

Post #433...

Actually they do. We drafted Tannehill and expected a lot from him...and he did indeed produce. Tannehill owns 9 Miami Dolphins franchise records, eclipsing the great Dan Marino and yet he is still the fall guy for the team rather than placing the fault on oh say...Joe Philbin, Adam Gase or any of the other members of the coaching staff that made STUPID calls and when they didn’t pan out, blame Tannehill instead.

I’m about to make a prediction...Tennessee is going to the playoffs, Tannehill will be named the Comeback Player of the Year and Dolphins fans are going to be crying that we lost him

https://www.thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-11#post-3222275

:thankyou:

"cbrad wrote:

Well.. here are Brady's and Wilson's year-by-year data points plotted against Tannehill's 2019:

But at least for 2019 there's no statistical basis for the claim that the correlation between his passing attempts and passer rating is somehow worse than would be expected for similarly performing QB's.

Be prepared to try every QB until you can find one that supports his claim.....

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Post #433...

Actually they do. We drafted Tannehill and expected a lot from him...and he did indeed produce. Tannehill owns 9 Miami Dolphins franchise records, eclipsing the great Dan Marino and yet he is still the fall guy for the team rather than placing the fault on oh say...Joe Philbin, Adam Gase or any of the other members of the coaching staff that made STUPID calls and when they didn’t pan out, blame Tannehill instead.

I’m about to make a prediction...Tennessee is going to the playoffs, Tannehill will be named the Comeback Player of the Year and Dolphins fans are going to be crying that we lost him

https://www.thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-11#post-3222275

:thankyou:

DAMN DUDE! Great call!!

Some guy doesn't understand the context of high volume passing and the numerous contrasting situations under which it can occur and why. High, or low, passing volume passing games transpire in many different ways in relation to opponent, gameplan, sticks, scoreboard, etc.

I'll now sit back and wait for the inevitable high volume statistical accumulation argument that said guy doesn't realize can not be used to determine the very specific circumstances of individual football games. J/K, I'm not waiting around for that crap.

Here is another comment from from Adamprez2003 in November that "The Guy" liked!!!! I presume that means he agreed with it. At the time, he was on his "it has only been four games. there is no evidence that he will continue.... blah blah blah" tirade.

https://www.thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-11#post-3222289

Fair enough. Let's say he has to win in the playoffs. At least get to the AFC Championship. LOTS OF GOOD QBs haven't been to the SB (rivers, stafford, etc). This way it proves he can win in the playoffs and if you can win in the playoffs you can win a SB

Hey, Guy? What happened?