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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Aaaaaaaand…

    So does Tannehill.
     
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  2. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    That has nothing to do with what I said.
     
  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Niners blew that SB game away. They held Mahomes to 10 points the entire first half. That game should of been over by then. Garoppolo isnt the answer and we learned alot that Sunday that the coaches dont trust him. He overthrew a wide open Sanders.

    Damien Williams is the real SB MVP
     
  4. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    He's considered a "choker" by ignorant people who know little about football, maybe.
     
  5. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    You keep writing Mahomes when I think you really mean "TEAM". Mahomes isn't out there by himself. He isn't blocking for himself or catching for himself. Your narrow view of football is ignorant.
     
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  6. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Oh we all forgot about that 2013 Seattle D that made him look like a scrub. Were so quick to forget.

    The fact that Manning had HoF WRs throughout his career and win only two SBs (wich really had nothing to do with his play) is in itself an eye opener.
     
  7. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    My narrative on football is on point. Bosa and Buckner harrassed Mahomes all game. Mahomes wasnt the best player on the field on his team or overall is my point. Damien Williams had a bigger impact than he did.
     
  8. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Or by people who actually seen him perform in the playoffs throughout his career.
     
  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, it makes complete sense to judge the overall body of work of a player, by a couple games, while ignoring the overwhelming majority of his play. There are many reasons why a QB could look bad in a game, without it being his fault.
     
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  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right. So if defenders are able to harass a QB, then that means other players on offense aren't doing their jobs.
     
  11. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    Again, you're cherry picking. Cbrad showed you that Brady and Manning's postseason play is nearly identical. You're also claiming that Manning had HoF WR's throughout his career and you're once again wrong. Manning played with ONE HoF receiver (Harrison) and he did so for 8-9 years. The last two of which he had a total of 80 receptions for 900 yards and 6 TD's. Manning played for 7 more years after Harrison retired. And asserting that Brady never had good WR's is also pretty ****ing stupid.

    I can point to a few Super Bowl winning seasons for the Pats where the teams overcame very poor play by Brady.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
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  12. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    The only point you have is on the top of your head. Your posts clearly lack any thought or validity.
     
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  13. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    So you're admitting you haven't watched him? How old are you?
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Know who I always saw claiming Peyton was a choker? Brady fans. People who want to say Brady is the GOAT have to make other QBs look bad to defend their position that a QB who doesn't possess elite physical tools is the GOAT.
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I've actually heard it from more people. What I personally attribute this to is that there are a few QB's: Montana, Young and Brady that not only were very good QB's but played on fantastic teams for so many years in a row that the probability of them winnning in the playoffs and winning the SB is just so much higher than for other QB's. People forget how difficult it is to win a SB.

    Just an example. Dan Marino in 1984 had one of the most impressive seasons ever for a QB, and it's captured in his z-score of 2.8 (one of the best ever). Even for that high a z-score the historic probability (based on the best-fit curve to historical data) of winning a SB is still only 28.7%. Mahomes' z-score in the 2019 regular season was still a very impressive 1.389 and the historic probability of winning a SB for any QB that plays as well as he did in the regular season (and there should be no doubt about that) is only 8.74%.

    In other words, winning a SB is HARD because of all the other good teams out there. Montana, Young and Brady just skew the discussion away from what should be the expected probabilities.

    And for reference, the equation for calculating SB win% given z-score passer rating (PR) is: 2.719*e^(0.8415*PR).
     
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  16. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    I'm 29, and I have.
     
  17. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Not neccesarily. The oline wasnt all that bad throughout the game considering 9ers rush.
     
  18. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Manning has always had Pro Bowl players to throw to, from Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark to DT, Sanders and Decker.

    Brady's top targets were Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens early on his career, then Randy Moss, Welker, Gronk, Edelman more recently. It really wasn't until 2007, the year after the Patriots made the AFC Championship Game with Reche Caldwell as their top WR, that New England started to surround Brady with more dynamic weapons.

    Manning entered the league with Marshall Faulk and Marvin Harrison, who despite your assessment was trending toward a very good WR. Faulk is a Hall of Famer. Then the Colts traded Faulk and drafed Edgerin James in the first round and Reggie Wayne in the first round.

    Brady entered the starting role with Antoine Smith, Troy Brown and David Patten as his top weapons. Then they brought in Deion Branch and David Givens. All these WRs did well with Brady. Even Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell had career years with Brady. None of them did anything anywhere else.

    As soon as Brady got a top WR in Moss, he broke records. That should tell you a lot about how Brady elevates the players around him.

    Here are some of Manning's playoff gems:

    - lost to Jets, who didn't even make the Super Bowl, 41-0

    - threw 4 interceptions in a 24-14 loss to the Patriots

    - couldn't find the end zone in a 20-3 loss to the Patriots

    - threw the sealing interception in the red zone in a SuperBowl loss to the Saints

    And again the Seahawks massacre

    Brady playoff > manning playoffs. Simple as that.
     
  19. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Did cbrad show you the stat, where Brady led 3 clutch 4th quarter TD drives in the playoffs against statistically 2 of the best defenses in NFL history?!...
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well you can't have it both ways. If the oline is doing its job, then players aren't going to be able to get to the QB. So if the QB is constantly harassed and under duress, there is a failure of the oline to do it's job. This isn't a difficult concept.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Culpepper looked all world throwing to Moss to.

    I could lob balls up to Moss too.
     
  22. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Well you know as "great" as he is, he should be able to make that oline work a lil, no? Even the great Marino said that making the oline work is also a QBs job..
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Don't shift the argument. If he's under pressure, the oline isn't doing its job, correct? Mahomes made plays, and KC won, correct? I guess he made the oline play work for him.
     
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  24. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    If hes under pressure doesnt mean the oline is not doing their job. It could mean alot of things besides oline not holding up. Pass rushers usually win majority of the battles facing elite lines. That doesnt excuse his poor play.
     
  25. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    You use the media and their catch phrases, "clutch", "GOAT", ect., in order to explain why you believe what you believe. Opinions are fine. However, completely ignoring the objective facts is not fine. It makes a person ignorant. It's fairly obvious that you don't really know what you're talking about, which is fine, but you should step back a little and maybe you'd learn something.

    Claiming that Brady hasn't played with great players and teams, and Manning has, is just false.

    Here is a little homework for you:

    Find out the average defensive rankings for the Patriots since 2000 and do the same for the Colts during Manning's time there.

    Once you find those averages let me know your thoughts.
     
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  26. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    In 2015, Denver defense in the playoff gave up 14.6pts/game which is better than all 4 of Brady's playoff defense that won the superbowl. Manning on offense got 2 tds to 1ints for the whole playoff (3games total). Again Manning basically did nothing on offense to help that team in the playoff

    The Patriots defense in the playoff in 2001 gave up 15.7pts/game, 19pts/game in 2003, 17 pts/game in 2004, and 20.7 pts/game in 2015.

    On offense during playoff, Brady threw 1td - 1int in 2001, 5tds - 2ints in 2003, 5tds - 0ints in 2004, and 10tds - 4ints in 2015. (3games total each year)

    There is just no comparison between the two.

    What is most impressive about Brady to me is that his play level hasn't fallen off this late in his career. But from a pure talent perspective (arm strength, accuracy, etc.) I think Marino and Rodgers are the best ever.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Peyton is career playoffs stats, 40tds 25 ints, 63 comp%, and like an 88 rating. Rating would have to be adjusted, according to cbrad, to compare. Like, you're pulling out some individual games to act like he was trash in the playoffs. Factually incorrect, and exemplifies why cherry picking is not useful.

    Further, why didn't you choose to use Peyton's 2003 numbers? If you adjusted his 106 rating from that year, he would be significantly higher in 2015/19 rating.

    Also, in no way is it appropriate to use 2015 Peyton as evidence of what he was like as a QB.
     
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  28. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    When comparing two of the greatest to play, it should be considered. Quarterback is arguably the most important position in all of sports. To say I'm just following what they say on talk radio is not only inaccurate but condescending. How many teams have won a championship with bad QB play? In order to do so, you need a dominate, historic defense. Why is that? It's because the QB position is so key. There's a reason why teams like the Browns are losing every year: They don't have a QB.
     
  29. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Lets look at playoff wins

    1.Tom Brady - 22-9

    2.Joe Montana - 16-7

    5. Peyton Manning - 12-11



    3.Peyton Manning has 9, "1-and-done" playoff appearances

    Tom Brady has been to 9 AFC Championship games
     
  30. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Manning team defense ranks since 1998 (Colts/Broncos)

    2015: 1st

    2014: 3rd

    2013: 19th

    2012: 2nd

    2011: 25th

    2010: 20th

    2009: 18th

    2008: 11th

    2007: 3rd

    2006: 21st

    2005: 11th

    2004: 29th

    2003: 11th

    2002: 8th

    2001: 30th

    2000: 22nd

    1999: 15th

    1998: 29th

    Average of 15.44



    Here's how the Patriots have ranked in total defense since 2001, when Brady became the starter:



    2015: 9th

    2014: 13th

    2013: 26th

    2012: 25th

    2011: 31st

    2010: 25th

    2009: 11th

    2008: 10th

    2007: 4th

    2006: 6th

    2005: 26th

    2004: 9th

    2003: 7th

    2002: 23rd

    2001: 24th



    Average of 16.6
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The most important measure of offense or defense is points scored/points allowed (doesn't matter how many yards you give up if you give up few points). So you want ranks by points:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/index.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/index.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/den/index.htm

    Very clear Brady played on very good defenses most of the time while Manning didn't with the Colts, though he did in Denver.
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So what? Why are we using team accomplishments to determine who is a better individual QB. Let's look at the drop off in total wins when Brady missed a season vs when Manning left the Colts? One team won 11 games. One team won 2.
     
  33. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    Once again, you're cherry picking.

    What are you talking about? The Pats won 6 Super Bowls and have been to 9. lol..

    The Pats' 6 winning Super Bowl defenses were ranked 5th, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 1st, and 7th, respectively. The Pats lost the Super Bowl with the 15th, 5th, and 4th ranked defenses.

    In 3 out of Brady's 18 playing seasons, the Pats have had a defense ranked out of the top 10 just three times. The Pats failed to make the playoffs one of those times (17th). Lost in the division round of the playoffs one time (17th). And lost the Super Bowl one other time (15th). That means the Pats missed the playoffs, with Brady, when they had a defense out of the top 10 33% of the time. The Patriots had a top 5 defense 9 out of 18 seasons with Brady (50%).

    During Brady's entire career, the Pats' defense has averaged 7th best in the league.


    In the Colts' 2 Super Bowls with Manning they had the 23rd ranked defense (Win) and the 8th ranked defense (Loss). In Denver with Manning, the Broncos had a 22nd ranked defense (Loss) and a 4th ranked defense (Win).

    When Manning was with the Colts, (13 years), the Colts defense was ranked out of the top 10 eight times. The Colts made the playoffs 6 out of those 8 (75%). Compare that to Brady's 66% and tell me who was more important to their team.

    The Colts averaged 16th during those 13 years.

    People love to talk about Denver's defense when Manning was there, but half the time he was with Denver they had a defense worse than league average.

    The Colts defense had a top 5 defense twice in 13 seasons (15%).
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
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  34. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    The Pats have had a dominating defense each year.
     
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  35. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    You're using total defense as if it means something. Use points allowed unless you believe yards win games.

    Here are the true defensive rankings:

    Patriots:

    upload_2020-2-6_13-1-18.png



    Colts:

    upload_2020-2-6_13-2-21.png


    Denver:

    upload_2020-2-6_13-2-54.png
     
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  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Don’t come in here preaching Tom Brady. We’ve been down this road way too often.
     
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  37. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    I gave you total defense, not points allowed. How is points allowed a good measure of a team's defense? Let me give you an example.

    Peyton Manning throws an interception and the defender returns it to the 2 yard line. Jamaal Charles runs it in from 2 yards out for a touchdown. Points allowed by defense: 7.

    Here's another. Jacoby Jones returns the opening kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. Points allowed by opposing defense: 7.

    And it goes on like that. Just look at the stats in 2015. Denver was the best defense when measured by yards allowed but just 4th in points allowed. I don't think there is anyone who would argue Denver had the 4th best defense in 201y..they were clearly the best defense.

    I even stated that those numbers were "total defense" and then you replied you weren't sure where I got my numbers from, and proceeded to give me numbers from a completely different defensive category. If you can't see the flaw in measuring a defense by just looking at points allowed, then you are in the minority. Total defese is widely accepted as the go to stat when referring to the best defenses in the league.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Points are all that matter. Points are what win or lose games. Don't care about total defense. Don't care about yards allowed. Points are all you need to look at.

    The dolphins defense was first in points scored a couple seasons ago for much of the season, maybe the whole season, but the defense still gave up too many points, so they lost games.
     
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  39. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    You've got a lot to learn. Which is OK as long as you're willing to learn it.

    "Clutch" is also widely used in the media. It's fake and doesn't exist. Points matter. Yards matter, but they matter little compared to points.
     
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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I have to disagree with that. Patrick Mahomes just the other day quarterbacked his team from a 95% probability of losing to a 100% probability of winning with only 7 minutes and 26 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. That extreme change in win probability associated with his performance is what I'd call "clutch."

    He could've had the exact same performance up by 40 points or down by 40 points and it wouldn't have been clutch at all, because it would've been virtually meaningless in terms of changing win probability.
     

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