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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Craziest thing about this run Ten has had since Tannehill took over is you would think they would dominate time of possession. Its been exact opposite. They have only had more time of possession in 2 of their 9 wins and are around 27th in league over that time.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you're following, because the point is about high-volume games, not low-volume ones, but I suspect you may be busy with other things. Again the point is that in 2019 there have been NO high-volume games that were played well, while there WERE low-volume games that were played poorly.

    Obviously that configuration of data is going to diminish the correlation between pass attempts and passer rating considerably, while preventing a correlation from being a valid indicator of the fact that NO high-volume games were played well. In other words, a correlation is a distorted representation of the data.

    The question isn't "can Tannehill play both well and poorly in low-volume games." The answer to that question is a clear yes. The question is, "why does his performance diminish so much more than that of QBs with similarly high overall passer ratings in high-volume games."

    Correlation is the wrong measure in this case. But you've put in a lot of work here (as have I) and it appears we've reached an impasse, so thanks.
     
  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Maybe because of the scheme? Maybe beacause WRs cant create seperation? Theres alot of things that factor into those things.
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But now consider that we're talking about a pattern that's existed over Tannehill's seven-year career as a whole, across many configurations of surrounding variables.
     
  5. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Stafford has played in an offense of the DET that was very high volume, so has Andrew Luck with the Indianapolis Colts, how would you rate those QBs?
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Interesting question. Stafford's career average passer rating in low-volume games is 97.2. In high-volume games it's 85.7.

    For Luck those figures are 96.3 and 88.8.

    Again for Tannehill those figures are 97.9 and 80.5. Once again his figure in high-volume games is a good bit lower (though less in these cases) than even quarterbacks people might consider average (as opposed to the earlier comparisons with Brees, Mahomes, etc.).
     
  7. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Let’s look at these 2 datapoints
    First you havethe 20-30 loss to Carolina. Tannehill had an 82.3 passer rating. Good to win about 40% of games if I’m doing the math right. Carolina got out to a 17 point lead in the first half and forced the Titans into pass first mode. Few QBs have good games once they get down 0-17. Game recaps said that the Titans gameplan did not establish Derek Henry and the run in the first half.

    Second was the first game against Houston. Tannehill had a 92.2 rating, good for 50% chance of winning the game. However ne play in particular stands out and it was discussed at length at the time. Tannehilk threw an 18 yard pass to the 1 yard line which was caught by the receiver who took a step upfield, got hit and spilled the ball. This play had the biggest change in GWC of the gane, and the negative outcome was nothing to do with Tannehill. This is recorded officially as an interception. For argument’s sake if it was recorded as an 18 yard completion that became a forced fumble, then Tannehill’s passer rating goes up to about 110.

    So the Carolina game is arguable either a failure of coaching or a failure of Tannehill. I will let better tape watchers draw their conclusions.

    The Houston game, as far ad I am concerned showed Tannehill produced in a high volume game, with his rating being knocked down by factors beyond his control.

    in addition Tannehill’s 3rd highest volume game was a 33 attempt game against Tampa, which was a win where he recorded a 109.8 rating.
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You haven’t established that it does. You’ve spot checked a couple of QBs. You haven’t looked at Cousins, Garoppolo, Carr, Jackson, Stafford, Bridgewater, or Matt Ryan.
     
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  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Now we get to the hair splitting.
     
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  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But those two data points are high-volume games, where there is plenty of opportunity (given the high number of pass attempts) to overcome those arguably isolated incidents and perform well overall nonetheless. Why didn't that happen?

    When you look at the best quarterbacks in the league over their careers as a whole, they apparently tend to do just that in those games, because their average passer ratings in such games are astronomically higher than Tannehill's. Even quarterbacks who are more likely to be considered just average (like Stafford and Luck for example; see a few posts above) have performed a good bit better than Tannehill in such games.
     
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well explained. Perfectly reasonable approach.
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Prove your statement. You cant just make that sort of assertion without proof.
     
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    A quick check of the stats shows that Tannehill has attempted a far greater % of his passes while trailing that the QBs he is being compared to. That is a function of the quality of the Dolphins’ teams he played on.
     
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  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL “astronomically higher”...... now hyperbole is the tactic....
     
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  15. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Sorry for the confusion. I realize that the x-axis is passer ratings. I should have been more explicit.

    I feel that since a bad to average QB makes more mistakes when under less defensive pressure then a good QB, then getting pressured doesn't make him a whole lot worse, just worse. Think of it as having a failure rate that increases in a linear manner.

    I feel with an above average QB who doesn't make as many mistakes under less pressure, there is a breaking point where, when under pressure, he "tries to put the team on his back". This means he will take even more extreme risks than lower quality QB's, which makes his failure rate "jump off the deep end". Think of it as having a knee in a curve that gets steeper geometrically. A good example might be Tom Brady under strong pressure. I saw this in his last game of the season and the first game of the playoffs and suspect it would fit your data.

    I hope this makes my thoughts a little clearer than in my original post.
     
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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another couple QBs we haven't looked at here.

    Drew Brees's career average passer rating in low-volume games: 103.4. In high-volume games: 94.9. Again Tannehill's career figures are 97.9 and 80.5. Again we see the relatively small difference between them in low-volume games, and the huge difference between them in high-volume games.

    Lamar Jackson's figures in 2019: 111.7 and 87.7, similar to Tannehill's in 2019 (118.6 and 87.3).
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why do you act like the receivers factor into this at 0%? If a QB is throwing to average or poor receivers, I wouldn't expect his rating to climb the more he has to throw. If the QB is routinely playing in games where the team is behind, I wouldn't expect to see his rating climb when he has to throw a ton. Blowout wins where the QB is allowed to throw a ton is where you will ratings climb with more throws.

    Frankly, your conclusions are always so confusing.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK.. as promised.. I finally have the program to adjust by era for December ratings, at least since 1978. So it turns out that Tannehill's 124.6 December rating ranks 5th all time since 1978. Here are the leaders with 2019-adjusted ratings in parenthesis.

    1. Kurt Warner 2001 (146.02)
    2. Drew Brees 2019 (137)
    3. Drew Brees 2011 (130.71)
    4. Chad Pennington 2002 (125.15)
    5. Ryan Tannehill 2019 (124.6)
    6. Brett Favre 1995 (124.36)
    7. Dan Marino 1991 (123.46)

    But man.. Brees!
     
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  19. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    3 former/Dolphins and a shoulda-been-a-Dolphin on that list.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Also as promised, the correlation between regular season passer ratings and the decrement between regular season passer ratings and playoff passer ratings (that decrement is about 10 passer rating points on average), for all QB seasons with minimum 150+ attempts for the regular season and minimum 10+ attempts for the playoffs, is 0.11.

    In other words, the degree to which there is an interaction effect (the degree to which the variance in one explains variance in the other) is 0.11^2 = 1.21%, so there's no real interaction effect here. So the degree to which the QB matters in the playoffs doesn't fundamentally change based on the particular matchup, at least not on average.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I watched several of the "talking heads" media today and they can't stop talking about Derrick Henry- they're saying if you stop Henry, you win the football game. And I guarantee you the Chiefs have had that drilled in their minds all week....all these elite defenders talked crap about not tackling Henry, then every single one of them got run over by him. It's all Henry this week.

    So if I'm the Titans, I'm coming out with a game plan that keeps the ball out of Henry's hands for most of the first half. You run a few, sure, but mainly you work off play-action and let Tannehill pick that defense to pieces in the first half. Attack through the air, get KC on their heels AND THEN unleash the beast in the 2nd half to close things out. Because let's face it; if the Texans could have run the ball even moderately well last week, they'd be here instead of KC.

    I don't think Tennessee makes that same mistake and I think they'll come out firing on all cylinders. They're going to win this freakin' ball game folks with our boy RT as the game MVP! Be sure to quote me on that once the Titans are in the Super Bowl.... =)
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I too think they should get the PA really cooking in the first half. If they can hit short/mid stuff all the way down the field, with a few runs mixed in (from Henry AND Tanny, maybe even a jet sweep), and score, especially if they get the ball first, they may be in business. They do that a drive or two, and Henry will be killing 'em.

    What hasn't been gaining too much attention, is the Titans DL...it seems like its getting more pressure the longer the season goes. If they can get the same general pocket contain they had on Lamar, after scoring first or having a lead, they'll be setting themselves up nice to snag a turnover, and that changes everything.

    Would love for RT to be the star of the game...but I wouldn't have an issue with Henry earning the MVP...that guy is on a TEAR and I'd like to see him break all the post-season rushing records. That OL is better at the rush anyway. As long as they get the W, I wouldn't complain about anything.

    Edit: Forgot one thing. Tannehill has been doing a fantastic job on reads, adjustments, putting them in the right play. I don't see any reason he can't keep this up. Can't wait for this game!
     
  23. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Ratbirds oline was ranked pretty high this year, and the subpar DL was able to generate enough pressure on Lamar. Lets hope that continues this week with Mahomes...
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    They are confusing because he comes to his conclusions first and then tries to shoehorn some fabricated explanation. To make matters worse, his fabricated explanation cannot take into account anything of substance that happens on the field because #AllAboutTheQB.
     
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  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I can’t even remember the original question posed that prompted this...been fighting with a certain poster over Tannehill lol
     
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  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Somewhat surprised, many Pats fans want the Titans to win it all.

    Just spent a few minutes on a Pats forum (ya, I need disinfectant), and a vast majority of them want Titans-Niners, with the Titans winning. They generally hate Rodgers and Mahomes (and its obvious why hahaha) lol.
     
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  27. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    So, who is the Ryan Tannehill guy you all speak of?
     
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  28. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    If I'm the Titans I go with what's been working . Henry has been an unstoppable beast lately so I keep feeding him until he's stopped. If the running game gets going early, and it should, imagine what that opens up for play action. K.C. would be on their heels for sure. On the other hand if K.C. scores at will, that would ultimately take the ball out of Henry's hands if the game clock becomes an issue. Therefore ,the best way from stopping the Chiefs offense from scoring is keeping them off the field. Run the ball and use the clock - the Titans are the perfect team to do that.
     
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  29. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    So you're suggestion is to take the ball out of Henrys hands and win the game with Tannehills arm? On purpose?
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely- it's straight out of Belichek's playbook. You shut down your opponent's #1 weapon and force them to beat you another way. KC is going to come out 8 in the box and Tannehill is going to absolutely torch them in the 1st quarter...just wait and see. =)
     
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  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Well, it's gonna take all 3 phases to take away KC's #1 weapon...and even then, I think it may just be hindered a little. Kid is freakin' HOT right now. Need the O to smoke the clock, need the S/Ts to pin 'em deep and cover their return guy (who is SICK good), and the defense to confuse/interrupt him. Tall damned order that is.

    Should be one hell of a cat and mouse game...I'm hyped.
     
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  32. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The important thing is that a certain Jamil Douglas was the starting RG in Tennessee’s game against Tampa. Henry had his lowest rushing total with Tannehill at QB, and it was Tanny’s wost rated game as a starter.

    It was the only game Jamil started while Tanny was the starting QB.

    co-incidence?
     
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  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Oh absolutely not Key! I understand what you're saying...try a little switch-a-roo on the Chiefs but the thing with Henry is that he gets STRONGER as the game goes on. Many of Henry's runs in the beginning of the game are 2 or 3 yard runs here and there, but it's that constant pounding against the front 7 that wears them down and allows Henry to run virtually at will.

    Until the Chiefs can demonstrate they have consistently figured out HOW to stop Henry, don't change who and what you are. Make the Chiefs play YOUR game...don't play THEIR game.
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Certainly plausible. However, consider the following.

    Here are Tannehill's average regular season adjusted (to 2019) passer ratings in high-volume games for every season of his career:

    2012: 65.3
    2013: 85.0
    2014: 88.7
    2015: 83.1
    2016: 84.5
    2018: (didn't play any high-volume games)

    In 2019 that figure was 87.3, despite that his overall passer rating was astronomically higher than it was in any of those previous seasons. In other words, even though he performed far better overall in 2019, he performed virtually just the same in high-volume games.

    Do you think we should attribute his poorer performance in high-volume games in 2019 to things like the absence of a single offensive lineman, or do you think we should consider it simply a continuation of his historical pattern of play in high-volume games across seven NFL seasons?
     
  35. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Alot of Pats fan are Titans player fans, Titans are pretty much like the AFC South Patriots, they have Deoin Lewis, Logan Ryan, Mike Vrabel, they all were in that franchise... and their color scheme is pretty much alot like Pats.
     
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  36. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Seems like a Nagy strategy. Stacking 8 in the box hasnt worked and Henry is still feasting. As an HC you would be dumb not to continue using Henry. Theres no reason why TEN should do anything differently unless the game doesnt work in their favor. Getting less Henry will only happen if Titans are down by 3 TDs in the first half.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
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  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Titans would be foolish to do anything differently when this was the case last weekend:

     
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  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    They had one of the highest % of explosive plays in the league. Their defense also did a lot of bend but don't break.
     
  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Jamil Douglas..... oh the painful memories.... Tannehill might have been nervous that game.
     
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You can determine what happened in each game by looking deeper. You choose not to do that because it keeps alive your narrative that Tannehill is the problem. For example, there was the INT in the Houston game this season that was totally on the TE. If he does his job, Tannehill ends up with a passer rating of 116. Tannehill played great in that game yet you want to imply he played poorly because of the passer rating. Passer rating is not a good measure of the QB's play in a single game. Hell, you spent the first 5 weeks of Tannehill starting saying that passer rating was not a good measure in so few games..... yet here you are.....

    BTW, even with the INT, Tannehill outplayed Watson (one of the guys you like to pimp) in that game.
     
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