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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's also worth pointing out that Henry pulled his hamstring 4 weeks ago, meaning several of those recent games were while nursing an injury...and he still didn't "lose his legs". If anything, this extra week should have helped more than anything.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Once again, cbrad has given you the definitive information regarding the above. What you choose to do with it no one else can control. This is no different from the “defense wins championships” issue.
     
  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Manning has had argubly the best weapons of any QB but no one cares about that they care about his ability and what he has done with them...


    Its cute how we ignore all the other positions in the NFL [for good or bad] and just discredit/credit the QB.

    Football is probably the biggest team friendly pro sport in the world and yet we are over here trying to analyze a QBs performance without including other positions in the team. I get it AMAZING QBs can EVAULATE other players, but to what extent? Manning has had first rounders talent WR/RBs his whole career, so did he really take an extra step to MAKE THEM BETTER than the talent they already had before they got drafted? Thats the question to ask yourself.

    TheGuy is really only focusing on some certain positions in football and making his judgement.

    Id argue Mahomes has much more weapons than Tannehill in the roster...so ofcourse Mahomes has a higher chance of being much more successful in the shoot out than Tannehill. On top of that Mahomes is obviously the more talented. To put the icing on the cake, Andy Reid has had a much longer and much more succesful resume than a rookie coach entering his 2nd year as an NFL HC Mike Vrabel.
     
  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    No it's not definitive, it's subjective. The argument used to declare such a position definitive is teams run the ball after gaining the lead through passing to control the clock and it's there that the yards are gain. This is not always the case, particular with Tennessee.

    Tennessee consistently uses the run as part of their offensive game plan, regardless if they are ahead or behind and as noted in detail above, when Derrick Henry himself rushes for more than 100 yards per game, the Titans win. It's indisputable, and I've illustrated other games, other than the Titans...play by play, situation by situation, regardless of the scoreboard and every time I've demonstrated that effective running during the game, as part of an offense's overall scheme results in wins every time.

    Folks like you, look at numbers and some mathematical algorithm. I on the other hand, look at the game in its totality itself, which is why I'm right more times than I'm not.
     
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  5. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    But as I've pointed out before Cash, this is not Tannehill versus Mahomes...

    It's Tannehill and the Titans offense versus the Chiefs' defense.
    It's Mahomes and the Chiefs offense versus the Titans' defense.

    It's not a matter of which quarterback is more talented than the other. It's a matter of whether each quarterback and the offensive unit is more talented than the opposing defense.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2020
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-1-16_6-56-15.png
     
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  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    It was pretty hilarious on this one Titans board, back around December 1st. Titans were red hot, Tannehill was playing super-efficient ball, and a Bills fan showed up on that board warning them how Tannehill was going to fall apart in December, 'cuz that's what he does. Meanwhile, hyping up Josh Allen as the next Jackson/Mahomes...and posted some tweets from some obscure dudes about Allen having "arrived." Anybody see those high school level mistakes he made in their playoff with Houston? lol

    His screen name was "Logical" hahaha. He continued to essentially ignore everything Tannehill did, into and through the playoffs, and maintain his stance that Tannehill didn't contribute to the team's situation at all. He took a virtual pounding but wouldn't budge.

    Reminds me of a certain other discussion...only much less passive-aggressive.
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I am FinFaninNOVA on that site (I no longer live in Buffalo). Go back and check my exchanges with him. Pretty funny.

    I also posted the info about Trent Murphy getting a signed Josh Allen jersey for my brother's grandson and personally delivering it two days before Christmas. So, not sold on Allen as a QB but he and Trent are good dudes. Kudos to them.

    80128288_2551778258284826_7660597445461540864_n.jpg
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I would like for you to understand the concept of the "exception to the rule."
     
  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's because there is a very strong correlation between passer rating differential and winning in the NFL, and so a large part of anyone's judgment about what's happening in the game, or will happen in a game, should be informed by quarterback play and pass defense.

    I'm focusing on the quarterback position no more than any NFL team does that doesn't have an adequate one. Watch them all clamor for the best ones coming out of college this year, as they do every year.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's entirely possible, however, that the game could unfold in such a way that it's essentially Tannehill versus Mahomes, and that isn't at all unusual in the NFL. Which quarterback can outplay the other determines a large percentage of games in the NFL. Obviously pass defense is an integral part of that equation as well.

    Just because there are games in the league that represent exceptions to the rule doesn't mean the rule shouldn't be focused on very heavily. If you were betting on the game for example you would be wise to consider first and foremost 1) the quality of the quarterbacks involved, and 2) the quality of the pass defenses involved. You could certainly consider other things as well, but you would be foolish (or at least uninformed) not to prioritize the above factors if you're actually trying to win money.
     
  12. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I agree that what you've stated in your post is correct. I don't think it includes a more direct indicator of performance that I see. I feel that a teams performance trajectory, for lack of a better term, is the best indicator of the next games outcome.

    Now consider the Titans and the Chiefs performance trajectory in their last 3 games; consider who they played against, and based on that, I'd like to see your prediction as to which team will be most likely to win on Sunday. Will this approach change who you think might win?

    I think its going to be the Titans.

    Their offense is strong running and passing and their defense was surprisingly stubborn across the board. I think the Titans defense will hold down the Chiefs offense more then the Chiefs defense will hold down the Titans offense, based on what I have seen these last 3 games. On this is the basis I predict a Titans victory. I doubt either team will score over 30 points.
     
  13. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't trust Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, Watson, and just about every other QB in the NFL to run with Mahomes in a pure shoot out. I guess that means they suck as well by your logic.
     
  14. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    No, if that was how he classified elite play, while wrong, I could at least respect that he planted his flag and makes a stand. But it isn't. As soon as Tannehill has a bad QB rating that becomes the end all be all. IF Tannehill isn't scoring as much as he should based on his QB rating that becomes the end all be all. IF Tannehill throws an interception late in the game that will be the end all be all that he uses to judge the QB. If vegas doesn't give Titans the advantage, that's also how he will judge the QB.

    Of course when Tannehill accomplishes the task, he will then go back to his talk that his surrounding cast is doing all the work, and it won't be possible to sustain that level of talent to allow an "average" to "below average" QB to keep these type of stats up.

    He wants to be contrarian to the obvious. Lucky for him the NFL is as complex an apparatus as you can find so there will never be any way to lock him down and "prove" him wrong. You could do the same thing for every QB that has ever existed. I attempted to engage him as a serious poster with questions about Tannehill, but if you view his latest couple of posts he is willing to make ridiculous claims that fail to make any sense, and then follow them up with a few level headed posts to make you come back into his web of argument.
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There's no reason you shouldn't trust Wilson or Rodgers, who I've already looked at in this regard. I don't have time to look at Brady or Watson right now.

    Rodgers's career average passer rating with a below-average number of pass attempts is 105.5. With an above-average number of pass attempts it's 98.6.

    Wilson's career average passer rating with a below-average number of pass attempts is 103.6. With an above-average number of pass attempts it's 93.4.

    Compare that to Tannehill, for whom those figures are 97.9 and 80.5. In 2019 his average passer rating with an above-average number of attempts was 87.3 (despite his league-leading overall passer rating of 117.5 -- consider that for a moment), so he didn't vault into the territory of Rodgers or Wilson in that area this year either, despite his better year overall.

    Mahomes's career average passer rating with an above-average number of attempts is 104.9.

    Obviously Tannehill's own pass defense is unlikely to be strong enough to mitigate that difference and limit Mahomes's performance to the degree that it makes Tannehill competitive with him in such a game.
     
  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Sheesh...

     
  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. How did Watson do AFTER being spotted 24 points?
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you're following what's really a very simple point in my opinion.

    Tannehill is playing well because the Titans' running game has enabled him to play in a low-volume role in the passing game, which, based on his abilities, maximizes his chances to perform well.

    If and when he has to engage in a high-volume passing game for whatever reason, then based on his history he isn't likely to play well, and we're likely to see him be dismantled much like Lamar Jackson was last week, when he was thrust into a high-volume role in the passing game after having the fewest number of pass attempts in the league in 2019.

    Again, I'm not the only one making this very simple observation:
    https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2...lphins-learn-from-tannehills-postseason-push/
     
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's insane- they've had a kicker for a month and he's yet to make an attempt? They need to sign me as kicker...I can do it coach!
     
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  20. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Awww I see, so now even though your premise is based on my opinion of not trusting Tannehill, if I equally don't trust these other guys, clearly I just don't trust enough... but not my no trust in Tannehill... cause you know... that no trust is real no trust...

    wow...
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I went ahead and looked at Brady and Watson as well.

    Brady's career average passer rating with a below-average number of pass attempts, 101.1. With an above-average number of pass attempts, 92.4. For Watson those figures are 100.9 and 96.1.

    Obviously Tannehill pales in comparison with a career figure of 80.5 with an above-average number of pass attempts.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So your lack of trust in Wilson or Rodgers in a high-volume passing game with Mahomes is based on, what? Your own intuition?

    It certainly shouldn't be based on their historical performances in such games, which I toiled to explore and outline for us in the post you quoted.
     
  23. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    They are scoring less points then Tannehill with higher volume passing this year... THAT should make you distrust them don't you think?
     
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  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    First, Tannehill isn't scoring all the points. He's accompanied by the leading rusher in the league in terms of total yards and yards per game, with the highest number of rushing attempts in the league, who also scored 16 touchdowns in 2019. The article I copied in post #4898 does a great job of illustrating how this has enabled Tannehill to take on a low-volume role in the passing game.

    What we're asking here is how likely these quarterbacks are to play well in a high-volume passing game, and thereby be able to keep pace with Mahomes in such a game.

    There is nothing more that needs to be explored in that regard than their historical performances in such games. I've already showed that the quarterbacks you mentioned -- Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, and Watson -- have fared far better than Tannehill in such games, even if we look at Tannehill's performance in such games in 2019 exclusively.
     
  25. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Nope, more passes equaling less points is bad. Clearly there is no way around that. If you HAVE to throw it 40 or 50 times a game you better be putting up more points then a team that is a primary run team. Otherwise you are wasting all of that precious volume.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    From a team success perspective that may be true, but what we're talking about here is whether individual quarterbacks have the ability to keep pace with Mahomes in a high-volume game.
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Get back to me when they change football from a team sport to an individual sport. Until then, your arguments make no sense.
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Henry scored basically 1 td a game. Who cares how many yards, if he isn’t scoring tds.
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    How'd it work out for Watson on Sunday?

    You are still trying to use your weather model to describe YESTERDAY'S weather.
     
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  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill's pace of 2.2 passing TDs per game would be good for 35 TDs. The most was 36 by Jackson...... So Mr. Low Volume would have been 2nd in the league in passing TDs.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Not well, despite that he had a passer rating of 95.7, which is consistent with his historical performance in such high-volume games (96.1).

    Now, how do you think it'd work out for Tannehill, whose historical performance in such games is 80.5?
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    On the Titans (vs the Dolphins teams he was unfortunate to be on), I like Tannehill better than Watson.

    But, you are missing a whole lot of nuance in the game of football. Not every high volume passing game is identical. Far from it.

    In the Chiefs-Texans game, KC made a ton of mistakes early and handed the Texans a 24-0 lead. Watson's passer rating in the first half was 128.3. He had 20 attempts in the first half and 32 attempts in the 2nd half. So, when playing with the lead and the whole playbook to work with, he was efficient.

    After KC roared back and in the 2nd half, Watson could not keep up. His passer rating in the 2nd half was 76.0. In crunch time, he failed. I would not expect Houston to keep pace. Throwing it 50 - 60 times per game is not their plan. In the first half they had 20 passes and 17 rushes. In the second half they had 32 passes and 4 rushes.

    KC had the highest percentage of passing plays of all the playoff teams and that includes the games that Mahomes did not play. They had the 6th fewest rushing attempts in the league. The next closest playoff team was the Saints at 16th. Then the Packers at 20th and Texans at 21st.

    Most of the teams that attempt more passes per game than KC were terrible and were playing from behind. Even KC goes to the run when they get a lead in the 2nd half. On Sunday, they ran the ball 5 times in the first half and 16 times in the second half. Mahomes threw 22 passes in the first half and 13 in the second half.

    You need to think more about the game and less about the numbers. You are missing the forest for the trees. Nobody in the NFL wants to get into a shootout with KC.
     
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  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I would like you to understand I AM the rule!!!
     
  34. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Nope, if you're not scoring more points when you are throwing more, Mahomes will win. There just isn't a way around that. In fact the team should think about their strategy... throwing more and putting up less points??? Who does that???

    Sounds like an indictment on all of the other QBs in the league that aren't named Tannehill to me. Well and Mahomes obviously cause he ACTUALLY throws more and scores more, you know, like you should.
     
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  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    When the two of them are actually on the field at the same time then it’ll be Tannehill versus Mahomes but until then, it’s each quarterback and their offenses versus the opposing defenses.

    Quit the nonsensical sensationalism
     
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  36. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    How are Tannehill’s past coaches working out?
     
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  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I pointed this very same thing out earlier in the thread. Don’t bother, it’s falling on deaf ears.

    Tannehill could win 3 or 4 Super Bowls playing the game he’s playing right now and he’d still be just average. :pity:
     
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  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    But could he win in a shootout, while blind folded, in a locust storm, on water, while playing against Jesus?
     
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  39. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Oh God. If this game is decided on a FG we are clearly losing. Titans kicking game sucked all year and they been signing and waiving kickers throughout the season.
     
  40. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Well since its an offensive passing happy league, QB vs QB has been throughout the roof talk. Apparently it is the offense that is more of a dominating factor than it is the defense in todays league. This is why this jibberish is shoved down by the fanbases now, and an "average QB" should be able to beat an average defense, or an "good QB" should be able to beat a "good defense", etc..
     
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