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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Be careful next week.

    The Titans have gotten by the past two weeks largely by having opposing teams play very poorly in the passing game. That's likely due to the Titans' efforts and/or their opposing teams' inadequacies, the ratio of which is difficult to determine. Against the Titans the Patriots' passer rating was a mere 59.5, and the Ravens' passer rating was similarly a mere 63.2.

    Between 2010 and 2018 there were 15 of the 99 playoff games in the NFL (15%) in which a team had a passer rating between 55 and 67, i.e., in the neighborhood in which New England and Baltimore played against the Titans the past two weeks.

    Those 15 teams with such low passer ratings won just 3 of those 15 games, by an average margin of 1.7 points. By contrast, the teams that won the other 12 of the 15 games won by an average margin of 12.8 points, nearly two touchdowns.

    So there are two findings there: 1) performing as poorly as the Titans' 2019 playoff opponents have in terms of passer rating is somewhat rare in the playoffs, and 2) when teams perform that poorly in terms of passer rating in the playoffs they stand far less a chance of winning, and when they do win, they do so in a nail-biter.

    So anyone betting on the Titans next week has to ask themselves a couple questions in my opinion: 1) how likely are the Titans to have three consecutive games in the playoffs in which they experience something that happens somewhat rarely in the playoffs, and 2) what kind of performance are they likely to put together if they don't experience that again.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2020
  2. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Because that had nothing to do with the post. If I were going to do that, I'd have listed all the RBs and their numbers for each QB.
     
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  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    I hope we do get the Chiefs.

    Their defense is horrible and Henry will run for 300 yards
     
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  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The Titans are 5 for 5 in the red zone. That is critical and a large part of the two wins. Tannehill has 2 TD throws on third and long in the red zone. Clutch. Long TD strike after the turnover on downs. Clutch. Critical throw on third down against the Pats. Clutch.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sure, I completely get that...but Tannehill has had to do so little because of Henry, the stats are actually misleading.
     
  6. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Not sure how you figure he had to do so little when the guy has hit bombs with Raymond and Smith, plus two jennings drop that would of resulted in another two tds.
     
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  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Derrick Henry had a 66 yard run. He was tackled at the 2 yard line. The ball came out and a Raven defender picked it up and tried to run (in case it was ruled a fumble). Take a look at who tackles the Raven player.

    upload_2020-1-12_12-50-34.png
     
  8. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    It's kind of crazy how both happy and sad I am to see Tannehill playing this well this year. It's nothing we didn't already know when he was here...he can win but needs the scheme and talent around him to succeed. There were just flat out haters here in Miami but it really all comes down to how moronic our coaching has been over the years. It is both a gut punch and vindicating seeing him in the AFC championship now. Amazing because he was always a team player and a effin stud when it came to playing his heart out...but now also a gut punch that we can confirm that we definitely had a QB that we could have won with all this time.

    People love to say how clueless Ross is and while that may be true at times with some of his decisions (philbin)...we at least have an owner that tries his hardest to win/make the fan experience better. It all really comes down to just missing on coaching for over a decade now which I guess is more common than not in the NFL.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Because without Henry, RT would have another 300+ passing yards and his stat total would look completely different (for better or worse).
     
  10. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well it seems like we are headed in the right direction with Flores.

    We can only look forward. Can't change the past. Ryan got a great second contract in Miami.. if only that dirty hit on his knee didn't happen. In retrospect it may not have been a bad thing in that exposed the fraud Gase but one can only wonder what would have happened.

    If I had the choice of Gase + Tannehill or rebuild + Flores I have to select the rebuild. Gase was that terrible of a coach and person. Hopefully he'll stick around the Jets long enough to ruin Darnold too.
     
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  11. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    he should have had another but Jennings dropped an absolute over the lb level red zone td dime
     
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  12. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    That chiefs d played much better the second half the year. Trending up Id say
     
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  13. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    You're missing the point... it was to show that his numbers are on par, or better, than a lot of other QBs who haven't been so maligned by many fans.

    As for the Henry stuff, that's a separate argument that used against a lot of the old QBs... Bradshaw, Griese, etc... back when Franco and Csonka were beasts.
     
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  14. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    lots of drop out zone when the titans had them way behind the sticks. Taking away the deep stuff in terms of quick strike points stuff but allowing for some soft mid level throws provided the qb could read it right.

    And forcing him to make plays from the pocket. To execute and take what’s there all the way down the field all the while bleeding the clock.

    Heck they couldn’t even go no huddle because he couldn’t execute it. Definition of front runner gameplan and qb
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I still don't get that....because Tannehill + Gase was highly successful when he was healthy. We saw much more of Gase + Cutler + Osweiler + Moore + Fales and still managed to be around a .500 team across those three seasons- I don't see how that's a major knock on Gase since few teams have done better with a backup QB (except in cases like Tennessee...where RT never deserved to be the backup in the 1st place).

    We'll never know what one more year together would have looked like but I have a feeling it would have completely changed this conversation. I do agree that Gase was a jerk and an ego-maniac, but I don't see either of those things as bad if your team is playing at a high level. And I do like Flores a lot so this isn't a knock towards him at all...I just really wish we saw one more year of RT.
     
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  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I don't understand how betting really works, but I saw an article from a sports book guy who said the Titans win was a windfall for them.
     
  17. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Agree with this. As much hate as Gase gets, he only had a completely healthy Tannehill for like 3/4 of the 2016 season.

    IMO, Philbin is the bum who should be getting the lion's share of hate and blame. Phlibin easily set this franchise back half a decade with his idiotic decisions.
     
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  18. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The defense was a complete joke. Remember, "Head Coach" Gase didn't worry about the defense which was historically bad.

    Coach Gase also ran a country club, didn't care about running the ball and ignored the offensive line. He also bad-mouthed some of his best players.

    It would have ended in a disaster. Miami barely scraped by when they won under Gase and got shellacked and killed when they lost. Not sustainable. I actually think Gase was worse than Philbo the Clown.
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We don't know this definitively at this point. It could be that for Tannehill to play at the level he has he requires such a perfect storm of positive surroundings that it's difficult to replicate in the NFL. When someone's performance is relegated to just one season, it's impossible to rule out that explanation. The Dolphins' surroundings during Tannehill's tenure could've been average, for example, and Tannehill may just need something far better than average. We can't know this either way until we see him play beyond this season.

    What we do know from yesterday however is that he has the ability to play at a level associated with winning in the playoffs. That wasn't known definitively until yesterday either.
     
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  20. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think gase was as bad as some others do but I mean in 2018 he ran max protect with mike gesicki responsible for the critical block at the poa or launch point all year long.

    Need I explain that further
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    In a nutshell, you could bet Baltimore minus ten points or Tennessee plus ten points. So if the game ended 20-10 Baltimore, Vegas calls it a tie since they were spotting Tennessee 10 points.

    Well, the opening line (which means betting line...who gets how many points) was Tennessee +7.5 and almost 100% of the bets were on Baltimore. Vegas tries to balance those odds out around 50/50 so they win no matter what, and they slowly raised the line on Tennessee the rest of the week. They gave them 8 points, 9 points, then a whopping 10 points...and the bets were still heavy on Baltimore. They couldn't "balance the bets" because nobody would touch Tennessee....meaning if Baltimore did win by 10+, they were losing their pants.

    However, since the Titans covered the spread, they won HUGE this week and they're laughing all the way to the bank.
     
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  22. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But we did well with those quick 4 yard passes!!!
     
  23. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    If they could have stuck with the no huddle offense they envisioned I think we’d be talking about a different story in Miami right now gase and tannehill.

    but really that cheap shot is how we got where we are. If that never happens tannehills still the qb in Miami I have zero doubt.
     
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  24. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I figured it was something like that, because some guys were saying you had to bet $100 on Baltimore to win $25, but a guy on a Titans board I've been visiting bet $20 and made $1,200.

    Edit: I'm not sure if he bet straight up or what, can't recall, but he put a picture of both of his bet receipts, 1 for $10 that won $800, and one for $10 that won $400.
     
  25. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Adam Gase offense. Big play TD then 5 consecutive third and 10+ for Ryan to overcome.

    Stuffed on first down for a loss. 2nd down screen for no gain. Third and long for sack.
     
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  26. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    yeah those were built ins. Wr screen built ins based primarily on box count.

    In terms of design we could have done something else
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Give. It. A. Rest.
     
  28. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    also gase is proving bad with personnel relationships. Seems to have followed him to the jets too.

    it’s everyone’s fault but mine
     
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  29. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Imagine if the Chiefs win with Mahomes getting hurt??

    AFC Championship game of Matt Moore vs Ryan Tannehill? Does this signal the end of the Indian Burial ground curse or the reawaking of the curse for another decade?
     
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  30. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    chiefs better maintain the sticks if that happens cause all Moore’s coverage ids have to come off of motion. Proved that in Miami

    the more freedom you give him the worse the results are
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Oh, that's a different bet completely- that's where you get odds on each team but no point spread. So Baltimore might have paid 1 to 5 odds (you win $20 for every $100 bet) while Tennessee might have been 7 to 1 (you win $700 for every $100 bet). The same thing happened in this betting line....everyone bet Baltimore so they kept shrinking their odds and boosting Tennessee's.

    If someone bet $20 to win $1200, that means they bet Tennessee straight up with 60:1 odds.

    For those who gamble, here's a little betting tip I used to use in my younger days. For every major horse race (Kentucky Derby, etc.) you'll have 5-15 world championship horses racing...none of them are scrubs because the owners have to stake hundreds of thousands just to compete. The favorite horse is usually around 2/5 odds (bet $100 to win $40) and then there will be 5-8 horses that are anywhere between 12 to 1 and 99 to 1. I used to bet all the longshots at $10 each Win/Place/Show (1st, 2nd or 3rd) and I never once lost money on a major race...but there were several years where I won thousands.

    That's because the odds aren't based on reality...they're based on betting trends and what other people think. Yet the majority of betters are placing their money on the favorites because that "should be" the surest bet...even though any of those horses had the potential to win the race. Again, every last one of them are champions that have won most of their races up until that point.
     
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  32. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    LOL!

     
  33. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    The chiefs defense is very good vs the pass. But you're right, kinda poor vs run. They are going to have to sell out to try to stop the run or Henry could really run for 300 lol
     
  34. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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  35. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I do. I consider trading Tannehill the dumbest singular move this organization has ever made in It's entire history. It's one of the reasons I want Grier fired yesterday.

    To look for as long as we have for a QB, find him and then get rid of him for nothing is mind boggling. We basically spent a first rounder, groomed him for four years and then rehabbed him for 2 1/2, and then got rid of him just as all that time was about to pay off
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2020
  36. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Henry is a throwback to a different era of heavy formations and downhill runners who used size and strength to punish defenders and impose their will. He's a rare breed of RB in today's NFL, where guys rely more on speed and quickness and who are comparatively lighter and slighter of build. He's pretty fast, too, so he could be the most complete player at the position that we've seen in awhile, more of a classic tailback.

    With NFL defenses designed to matchup with spread offenses and shut down speedy receivers and shifty ballcarriers in high-volume passing attacks, having a physical beast like Henry is a major advantage against smaller linebackers and safeties. I've been saying for a little while now, I thinkwe're going to witness a renaissance of smashmouth football in the coming years as teams look to counter smaller defensive units that are vulnerable to big linemen and power runners. It's refreshing to watch as a true football fan.
     
  37. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No it wasn't.

    Miami was not going to be fixed in time to have an offense to build around Tannehill.

    No OL
    No running game


    This revisionist history doesn't change the fact that Tannehill needed a change of scenery and that Miami wasn't designed to compete with him in 2019 and probably in to 2020.

    If one other GM in the league saw Tannehill as a starting QB his value would have been higher.

    This is not on Grier.

    The Titans have a RB that looks like prime Ricky, with Tannehill playing at an elite level with good protection and not being forced to carry the entire offense.

    Miami needs to look forward not the past. My only regret is that a coach the caliber of Flores never had the chance to coach Ryan in Miami.
     
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  38. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    They will both get offers. It just depends on how much
     
  39. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    It's all on Grier. The guy couldn't scout a QB if one landed in his lap. Trading Tannehill away? trading for Rosen? Right there are two trades that should get you fired and this is the guy Ross wants to determine who our next QB will be. I can almost guarantee whoever he chooses will be the wrong choice

    We had part of an oline and could have drafted a RB like Minnesota'S MATTISON so this idea the time had come is bunk. The fans had no patience, that is all. Blame the fans, blame ross, blame Grier or blame all of them. But don't think this was the right move unless everything falls into place. If Flores IS THE NEXT Belichik and Grier is the next Ozzie Newsome and our next QB is the next Aaron Rodgers then it will be the right move
     
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  40. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Agree. Philbin is probably the worst coach we ever had. He's worse than Cameron because he lasted three years
     
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