Ryan Tannehill

The guy has 2 seasons of 3000 plus passing yards, followed by 4000 yards back to back seasons. Thats 4 years of quality work, and Miami never thought he had elite potenial? Wow.

Mariota has had ONE 3000 plus yards followed by two garbage staticial seasons and yet Titans fans were still stuck wanting him as the franchise.

The difference within the fanbase is so weird....

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Talent around, is a huge part probably.

So if that's true, then what it would mean by extension is that Marcus Mariota, a player who historically has been indistinguishable from Tannehill statistically, is actually inferior to Tannehill by about the same degree as Josh McCown is inferior to Aaron Rodgers.

"KeyFin wrote:

I don't think that's a given. As I shared last year, Gase was quitting if he wasn't fired because he didn't agree with the approach we took this year. He felt strongly they were a few pieces away from a contender and he had full faith in Tannehill. RT did have a few horrible games to close out last season and we judged him harshly because it was after three years of injury & seven total seasons. Those strip sacks in particular drove everyone nuts and it the final straw for me...but it was three fumbles in two games that actually made up our minds. We were judging 7 years off of three really bad plays....

If Gase had won his argument, a different GM was hired and the team stayed largely intact, it would be hard to argue that the Tannehill we saw this season wouldn't have won 8+ games in Miami. Nine wins gave Tennessee the final wildcard slot and I'd argue that right now, today, we'd be a playoff team with Gase and Tannehill (plus Tunsil, Drake, Minkah and company). That would be Gase's 2nd playoff appearance in 4 years and 2/2 with his starting QB healthy for the majority of the season. And I honestly think that completely changes all the narratives we've had on Gase, RT, Grier, Ross, etc.

Again, give us all our players back Grier traded- does that equal 4 extra wins or not? If the answer is yes, then we threw away a playoff team for nothing. Could have it been "perennial" if we continued to build on that young roster?

We lost to the Skins 17-16
We lost to the Steelers 27-14
We lost to the Bills 31-21
We lost to the Jets 22-21

Six extra drives by Tannehill, the best QB in the league, could have earned us those 4 TD's/2 FG's and a playoff berth. Minkah's 5 INT's could have had the same effect. Just saying....not a whole lot would have had to change for us to be in the postseason right now and not praying for a miracle draft.

Something to think about.

Let’s review Gase’s record as a HC.

There is a theory called pythagorean wins which estimates expected wins based on points scored and points allowed. I find it to be a pretty good indicator of the true strength of a team

2016: 7.5 expected wins, 10 actual wins
2017: 4.9 expected wins, 6 actual wins
2018: 5.1 expected wins, 7 actual wins
2019: 5.6 expected wins, 7 actual wins.

Gase’s record as a HC is a mediocre 30-34
Based on points scored and allowed his teams would be expected to go 23.1-40.9

I don’t care if Gase was right about Tannehill. His history is that he coaches bad teams to mediocre W-L records. Even if you give him a pass for injuries/illness with his QBs, his defenses have still allowed lots of yards and points.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

The guy has 2 seasons of 3000 plus passing yards, followed by 4000 yards back to back seasons. Thats 4 years of quality work, and Miami never thought he had elite potenial? Wow.

Mariota has had ONE 3000 plus yards followed by two garbage staticial seasons and yet Titans fans were still stuck wanting him as the franchise.

The difference within the fanbase is so weird....

That's entirely a function of number of passing attempts, because Mariota's career YPA (yards per pass attempt) is actually higher than Tannehill's, even with this season included.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

The guy has 2 seasons of 3000 plus passing yards, followed by 4000 yards back to back seasons. Thats 4 years of quality work, and Miami never thought he had elite potenial? Wow.

Mariota has had ONE 3000 plus yards followed by two garbage staticial seasons and yet Titans fans were still stuck wanting him as the franchise.

The difference within the fanbase is so weird....

Efficiency stats are better for judging QB ability than volume stats. For example, passer rating has a correlation with win% of 0.633 across NFL history while passing yards is at 0.3103. The square of those numbers tells you what percentage of variation in win% is explained by each and it's 40% for passer rating while it's only 9.6% for passing yards.

And there are a lot of examples of QB's with lots of passing yards you wouldn't want to say have elite potential (or at least I wouldn't). For example, take Jameis Winston:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WinsJa00.htm

Winston came in 1st in passing yards this year with 5109 while he had a below average rating of 84.3. Which in your opinion better describes the QB? And as you can see he also had 2 4000+ yard seasons, one 3500+ season and one season 8 yards shy of 3000, similar to the numbers you described for Tannehill (plus of course the 5000+ season). But Winston is at best average IMO.

"The Guy wrote:

That's entirely a function of number of passing attempts, because Mariota's career YPA (yards per pass attempt) is actually higher than Tannehill's, even with this season included.

Flota's stats.

"Pauly wrote:

Let’s review Gase’s record as a HC.

There is a theory called pythagorean wins which estimates expected wins based on points scored and points allowed. I find it to be a pretty good indicator of the true strength of a team

2016: 7.5 expected wins, 10 actual wins
2017: 4.9 expected wins, 6 actual wins
2018: 5.1 expected wins, 7 actual wins
2019: 5.6 expected wins, 7 actual wins.

Gase’s record as a HC is a mediocre 30-34
Based on points scored and allowed his teams would be expected to go 23.1-40.9

I don’t care if Gase was right about Tannehill. His history is that he coaches bad teams to mediocre W-L records. Even if you give him a pass for injuries/illness with his QBs, his defenses have still allowed lots of yards and points.

this may be the most bizarre defense of a coach that I have ever seen. His w/l record outperformed his team’s crappy performances on offense and defense?

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Flota's stats.

Again that's a function of yards per pass attempt (YPA).

Tannehill has had 3,197 career pass attempts and 23,176 passing yards.

If Mariota had 3,197 career pass attempts, then with his greater YPA he would have 23,997 passing yards, about 800 more than Tannehill.

"The Guy wrote:

Again that's a function of yards per pass attempt (YPA).

Tannehill has had 3,197 career pass attempts and 23,176 passing yards.

If Mariota had 3,197 career pass attempts, then with his greater YPA he would have 23,997 passing yards, about 800 more than Tannehill.

Mariotas been in the league 5years?

"Cashvillesent wrote:

The guy has 2 seasons of 3000 plus passing yards, followed by 4000 yards back to back seasons. Thats 4 years of quality work, and Miami never thought he had elite potenial? Wow.

Mariota has had ONE 3000 plus yards followed by two garbage staticial seasons and yet Titans fans were still stuck wanting him as the franchise.

The difference within the fanbase is so weird....

It's the Marino effect, he is comparison for QBs in Miami. Did you see what he did his first full season starting? Plus, the competition for good QBs in the AFC east was Brady. Expectations are skewed.

***edit** lucky you right? Dolphins paid how much of Tannehills salary to dominate for your team?

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Mariotas been in the league 5years?

But his efficiency (YPA) is greater than Tannehill's, and so if he'd been in the league as long as Tannehill and/or had thrown as many passes as Tannehill, he'd actually have more career passing yards than Tannehill.

Think about it like this: what statistic would you use to determine that Derrick Henry is a better player than Chris Johnson, when Johnson has nearly 8,000 career rushing yards and Henry only about 3,800?

"The Guy wrote:

Again that's a function of yards per pass attempt (YPA).

Tannehill has had 3,197 career pass attempts and 23,176 passing yards.

If Mariota had 3,197 career pass attempts, then with his greater YPA he would have 23,997 passing yards, about 800 more than Tannehill.

Mariota never had that amount of attempts because he isnt a good thrower, and every coach that was under him knew that.

"Two Tacos wrote:

It's the Marino effect, he is comparison for QBs in Miami. Did you see what he did his first full season starting? Plus, the competition for good QBs in the AFC east was Brady. Expectations are skewed.

***edit** lucky you right? Dolphins paid how much of Tannehills salary to dominate for your team?

Miami ate $5M off his salary.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Mariota never had that amount of attempts because he isnt a good thrower, and every coach that was under him knew that.

But if his coaches would've used him as much as the coaches in Miami used Tannehill, Mariota would've amassed more passing yards than Tannehill.

The take-home message is that you're not dealing with a player who was lighting the world on fire in Miami.

"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:

this may be the most bizarre defense of a coach that I have ever seen. His w/l record outperformed his team’s crappy performances on offense and defense?

Not defending Gase at all. Just pointing out that his W-L record has a lot of smoke and mirrors and not much of a base

"Two Tacos wrote:

It's the Marino effect, he is comparison for QBs in Miami. Did you see what he did his first full season starting? Plus, the competition for good QBs in the AFC east was Brady. Expectations are skewed.

***edit** lucky you right? Dolphins paid how much of Tannehills salary to dominate for your team?

What he did in his first full year starting, would probably equate to like 7500 yards passing and 65 TDs, today. That season was RIDICULOUS! Most fun I ever had watching sports, until they lost to the Niners (my most hated team, even before then).

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

What he did in his first full year starting, would probably equate to like 7500 yards passing and 65 TDs, today.

If you adjust by the ratio of league average TD's today vs. league average TD's in 1984, and similarly for yards, Marino's 48 TD's in 1984 comes out to 54.4 TD's in 2019, and his 5084 yards in 1984 comes out to 5802 yards in 2019. Well beyond everyone else today.

"cbrad wrote:

If you adjust by the ratio of league average TD's today vs. league average TD's in 1984, and similarly for yards, Marino's 48 TD's in 1984 comes out to 54.4 TD's in 2019, and his 5084 yards in 1984 comes out to 5802 yards in 2019. Well beyond everyone else today.

That's great, and probably very accurate and all. But I like my numbers better :)

"The Guy wrote:

That's entirely a function of number of passing attempts, because Mariota's career YPA (yards per pass attempt) is actually higher than Tannehill's, even with this season included.

There's no way in hell you can ever convice me that Marcus is better than Ryan.

I've watched him the last 4 years and all he did was regressed. Confidence shot to a point where he couldnt even complete bubble screen passes this year wich led to him being benched

"Cashvillesent wrote:

There's no way in hell you can ever convice me that Marcus is better than Ryan.

I've watched him the last 4 years and all he did was regressed. Confidence shot to a point where he couldnt even complete bubble screen passes this year wich led to him being benched

Not trying to convince you that Mariota is better than Tannehill; only that Tannehill's performance in Miami wasn't better than Mariota's in Tennessee.

When you look back at Tannehill's performance in Miami, you should find more reasons to question whether his current performance will be sustained than you do reasons it should have been predicted to occur.

"cbrad wrote:

We don't have to make predictions based solely on stats. I'm fine with people making predictions however they see fit. But it's still a fluke if a person's ability to predict is no better than chance level, statistically speaking (there are statistical tests for this btw). And I have yet to see anyone here do so well at predicting how football games unfold or how well specific players will perform in different situations that I'd give them tons of credibility with their predictive ability.

For example, you can't just focus on people correctly predicting Tannehill could play at an elite level for a season. You have to also look at predictions those people did NOT get right, like past predictions of Tannehill doing well (e.g., in 2018) where statistics-based prediction was more accurate.

Point is.. it's still a fluke if a person is getting things right at approximately chance level or whatever the historical probability of correct predictions is in that situation. And I don't see the current situation any differently.

You're seriously using 2018 as an example of people being wrong? I just noticed you said that...that is completely ridiculous.

"The Guy wrote:

Not trying to convince you that Mariota is better than Tannehill; only that Tannehill's performance in Miami wasn't better than Mariota's in Tennessee.

When you look back at Tannehill's performance in Miami, you should find more reasons to question whether his current performance will be sustained than you do reasons it should have been predicted to occur.

I can only judge him by this year. I can tell he can throw the ball and his accuracy has been crazy good. Last QB that was here with the same talent was Matt Hasselbeck.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

There's no way in hell you can ever convice me that Marcus is better than Ryan.

I've watched him the last 4 years and all he did was regressed. Confidence shot to a point where he couldnt even complete bubble screen passes this year wich led to him being benched

People here clamored for Manziel.
That is how nuts the anti-Tannehill crowd got here

"resnor wrote:

You're seriously using 2018 as an example of people being wrong? I just noticed you said that...that is completely ridiculous.

Depends on the poster, but yes in general we've had many years in the past where people said Tannehill would be top 10 in passer rating that year etc... and it didn't occur. And yes best example was 2018 because so many agreed Tannehill finally had the right coach (Gase) and the right surrounding cast. Even the 5 games prior to injury Tannehill had a 92.9 rating, which was exactly league average!

"cbrad wrote:

You think Tannehill would have had similar production in Miami? I think it's ONLY if you Tannehill would have had such production here in Miami that one should "regret" losing such a QB. However, if you don't think Tannehill would have had similar production, then I see no reasons for regret (except that we hired the wrong GM and/or coach).

If Joe Philbin and Adam Gase has gone on and made elite quarterbacks with the Jets...and wherever Philbin ended up, I might could buy your argument but seeing remarkably successful they’ve been...

Let’s be completely honest and call it like it is, Tannehill had crap for coaching here in Miami.