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Tim Boyle to start vs Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by TheHighExhaulted, Nov 20, 2023.

  1. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    The spread was Miami -6.5, it has now jumped to -9 with this news.

    This is going to be a laugher.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm confident we'll win, but the more important question is whether the Tua can do well against the Jets pass defense, which is currently ranked #7 with a passer rating allowed of 79.4. Would be nice to get that monkey of "can't do well against a good pass defense" off our back.

    btw.. Jets defense overall (by points allowed) is #11, so they have some work to do to really prove they belong in an "elite" category. I pointed this out early in the season, but the perception that the Jets defense is "elite" isn't matched by the stats. They're running out of games to show otherwise. Overall, Jets defense is good, not elite.
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    MetLife takeover
     
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  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Raiders passing offense is ranked 8th and he had a 106. I think the Monkey is off (frankly was off way before yesterday's game) to any reasonable person.

    In fact, the Raider's defense is ranked just below the Jets currently.

    After yesterday I'm hoping that the Jets defense has hung up the towel. They have no chance of making the postseason and maybe they're sick of risking their health for an offense that couldn't beat a high school JV squad.

    At the beginning of the season I thought we'd split with them. I now think we now have a great chance of sweeping them.

    The key (like most games) will be turnovers.

    My prediction(s):


    If we win the turnover battle:

    Miami 23
    Jets 9

    If we lose the turnover battle:

    Miami 17
    Jets 10
     
  5. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    You could worry about them getting some kind of random spark but he is probably a even worse QB who is only on the team because Rodgers likes him
     
  6. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the issues of the Jets O impact the D. Lowest 3rd down conversion rate by far, lowest number of first downs per game, and so forth. That D has so much pressure on it. And, they aren't the Lewis led Ravens, but no one is with todays rules. My point is, I think they are better than their numbers.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Raiders are currently ranked 14th, giving up an 87.5 rating on average:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm

    Screen Shot 2023-11-20 at 1.54.05 PM.png
     
  8. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I misread your initial post and thought you were talking about passing defense and that the Jets were ranked 7th. The Raiders are ranked 8th in passing defense. I just looked at the Jets are ranked 5th in passing defense.

    *Edit- Raiders WERE ranked 8th. After yesterday they are now 11th.
     
  9. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    I'm waiting for the Jets D to turn against it's O.They have to be frustrated.
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Umm.. I just linked to you the passer rating allowed. Raiders are ranked 14th in passer rating allowed (what I'm calling passing defense because that has the highest correlation to win% among passing defense stats). Which ones are you looking at?
     
  11. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Yes. You're looking at passer rating and I was talking about passing yards allowed. I thought that's what you meant in your initial post.

    Here is the Raiders current ranking in passing yards allowed. They were 8th before Tua put up over 300 yesterday.

    upload_2023-11-20_13-5-34.png
     
  12. Alan in England

    Alan in England Active Member

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    a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I see. In the SB era, the average correlation between passer rating allowed and win% is -0.59, while it's -0.18 for passing yards allowed.

    That translates to 34.8% of variation in win% explained by passer rating allowed, and 3.2% of variation in win% explained by passing yards allowed. So looking at passing yards allowed really tells you nearly nothing about what matters for predicting win%. Better to go with passer rating allowed, if the goal is to predict win%.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    We beat the Raiders.
     
  15. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    They also only allowed one QB over 250 yards this season and that was Allen who had 274 in Week 2.
     
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  16. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Who pissed in your tea this morning, Alan?
     
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  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Oh, I agree that passer rating is a much better way to look at things, I just thought you were talking yards strictly.

    BTW, how did you break down PFR to give you defense passer rating allowed? I've looked for that forever and have been doing all the math myself. lol
     
  18. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Who wrote that it would be easy?
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Go to this link:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm

    Scroll down to "Passing Defense" (3rd table), and just sort by "Rate".
     
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  20. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    We would have easily beat the Raiders if not for unforced turnovers. That wasn't anything their defense did, it was sloppy play.
     
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  21. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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  22. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    I'll be there !!!!!
     
  23. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Never change Alan, never change.

    I'm pretty confident if Tua puts up 325 yards, 2 TD's and a 103 rating against the Jets we win that game comfortably.
     
  24. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Is there a points per drive metric for defences? I wonder with the Jets offence being so horrific if their defence has to defend more plays which increase the chances of a big play or score?

    edit: Found it on profootball reference. The Jets are 5th best at 1.59 while the Dolphins are 13th at 1.89. The Browns are #1 with 1.24.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2023
  25. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    not so sure guys look back over our history with rookie qb against us. We tend to make them look like all pros a lot of the time. They have a legit defense do not overlook these clowns. We need to learn to put our foot on everyone’s throats all the time.
     
  26. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Boyle isn't a rookie. He's a 30 year old journeyman with 3 TD passes and 9 INT's on his career. The only reason he is on an NFL team is because he is buddies with Aaron Rodgers.
     
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  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    IMO, the points allowed is skewed because they have such a bad offense. Combine defending short fields with being on the field all day and that is bad for a defense.
     
  28. Tuanon4Life

    Tuanon4Life Well-Known Member

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    He's not a rookie and he's horrible. Anything can happen and they could get a spark benching Wilson but I don't think Miami is going to have any problems covering this one.
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Good for the jets making this move on a short week. It may sound like a "Jets" thing to do, but Wilson just can't get anything going and they desperately needed a change. Even if Boyle is worse, benching Wilson may give them a spark down the road.

    Here's his post-game press conference from yesterday. Did Wilson get hurt?

     
  30. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    1 seed alive and well. Win these next four games against bad teams.
     
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  31. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    On my bucket list. Not going to happen but I would LOVE to go to a Prime Time game at the New Jersey Jesters home away from home that they have to share with their in laws field to watch them suffer another what would be humiliating loss if it didn't happen so frequently to the Dolphins.
    Just need to be sure I have bail money.
     
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  32. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I don't like what McDaniel said in his press conference. It makes me suspect he hasn't learned from the mistakes in our losses.
     
  33. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    IMO, starting Tim Boyle is the worst move in the history of the NFL.

    His career touchdowns to interceptions are 45 touchdowns and 59 interceptions. By career, I mean high school, college, and pros. And it is not like he went to college at some big-time college and was behind some hall of famers. He went to UConn and then Eastern Kentucky, I guess to start his senior season. Where he had his best year with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. I have zero clue how this guy even made it to the NFL to become Rogers conspiracy buddy. I just assume conspiracy because it isn't because he is a good quarterback.

    It is not like he is a great athlete. He had negative 162 rushing yards in college and has negative 4 in the pros. Everyone on this board who didn't play football in college or the pros has more rushing yards than this guy.

    I am legit baffled why this guy is even in the NFL and it hurts my brain to think that this guy is going to start in an NFL game. It is like a bad Black Mirror episode where a guy is stuck in a simulation where he has to be a bad quarterback his entire life.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    We have a friend whose son got a scholarship to EKU. Alex plays WR. We watched quite a few of his games and I can tell you this…EKU doesn’t develop quarterbacks. They are nothing but a running team so I’m not worried about Boyle’s prowess as a quarterback
     
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  35. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Somehow that made me feel a little better about myself, LOL. I have more rushing yards than an NFL starter.

    For the record, I had one carry for 9 yards in high school, and 6 yards on an onside kick return! I'm like waaaay better than that guy, LOL.
     
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  36. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If Hacket and Saleh had a brain cell between them, they'd start Siemian. Sure, he doesn't know the playbook but he was a serviceable NFL QB somewhere. Won some games.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well it is the New York Jets. There’s something about that organization that sucks the brain cells out of anyone associated with that team.
     
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  38. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Maybe at this point, they're playing it out for the draft position.
     
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