I'm confident we'll win, but the more important question is whether the Tua can do well against the Jets pass defense, which is currently ranked #7 with a passer rating allowed of 79.4. Would be nice to get that monkey of "can't do well against a good pass defense" off our back. btw.. Jets defense overall (by points allowed) is #11, so they have some work to do to really prove they belong in an "elite" category. I pointed this out early in the season, but the perception that the Jets defense is "elite" isn't matched by the stats. They're running out of games to show otherwise. Overall, Jets defense is good, not elite.
Raiders passing offense is ranked 8th and he had a 106. I think the Monkey is off (frankly was off way before yesterday's game) to any reasonable person. In fact, the Raider's defense is ranked just below the Jets currently. After yesterday I'm hoping that the Jets defense has hung up the towel. They have no chance of making the postseason and maybe they're sick of risking their health for an offense that couldn't beat a high school JV squad. At the beginning of the season I thought we'd split with them. I now think we now have a great chance of sweeping them. The key (like most games) will be turnovers. My prediction(s): If we win the turnover battle: Miami 23 Jets 9 If we lose the turnover battle: Miami 17 Jets 10
You could worry about them getting some kind of random spark but he is probably a even worse QB who is only on the team because Rodgers likes him
I think the issues of the Jets O impact the D. Lowest 3rd down conversion rate by far, lowest number of first downs per game, and so forth. That D has so much pressure on it. And, they aren't the Lewis led Ravens, but no one is with todays rules. My point is, I think they are better than their numbers.
Raiders are currently ranked 14th, giving up an 87.5 rating on average: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm
I misread your initial post and thought you were talking about passing defense and that the Jets were ranked 7th. The Raiders are ranked 8th in passing defense. I just looked at the Jets are ranked 5th in passing defense. *Edit- Raiders WERE ranked 8th. After yesterday they are now 11th.
Umm.. I just linked to you the passer rating allowed. Raiders are ranked 14th in passer rating allowed (what I'm calling passing defense because that has the highest correlation to win% among passing defense stats). Which ones are you looking at?
Yes. You're looking at passer rating and I was talking about passing yards allowed. I thought that's what you meant in your initial post. Here is the Raiders current ranking in passing yards allowed. They were 8th before Tua put up over 300 yesterday.
a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
I see. In the SB era, the average correlation between passer rating allowed and win% is -0.59, while it's -0.18 for passing yards allowed. That translates to 34.8% of variation in win% explained by passer rating allowed, and 3.2% of variation in win% explained by passing yards allowed. So looking at passing yards allowed really tells you nearly nothing about what matters for predicting win%. Better to go with passer rating allowed, if the goal is to predict win%.
Oh, I agree that passer rating is a much better way to look at things, I just thought you were talking yards strictly. BTW, how did you break down PFR to give you defense passer rating allowed? I've looked for that forever and have been doing all the math myself. lol
Go to this link: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm Scroll down to "Passing Defense" (3rd table), and just sort by "Rate".
We would have easily beat the Raiders if not for unforced turnovers. That wasn't anything their defense did, it was sloppy play.
Never change Alan, never change. I'm pretty confident if Tua puts up 325 yards, 2 TD's and a 103 rating against the Jets we win that game comfortably.
Is there a points per drive metric for defences? I wonder with the Jets offence being so horrific if their defence has to defend more plays which increase the chances of a big play or score? edit: Found it on profootball reference. The Jets are 5th best at 1.59 while the Dolphins are 13th at 1.89. The Browns are #1 with 1.24.
not so sure guys look back over our history with rookie qb against us. We tend to make them look like all pros a lot of the time. They have a legit defense do not overlook these clowns. We need to learn to put our foot on everyone’s throats all the time.
Boyle isn't a rookie. He's a 30 year old journeyman with 3 TD passes and 9 INT's on his career. The only reason he is on an NFL team is because he is buddies with Aaron Rodgers.
IMO, the points allowed is skewed because they have such a bad offense. Combine defending short fields with being on the field all day and that is bad for a defense.
He's not a rookie and he's horrible. Anything can happen and they could get a spark benching Wilson but I don't think Miami is going to have any problems covering this one.
Good for the jets making this move on a short week. It may sound like a "Jets" thing to do, but Wilson just can't get anything going and they desperately needed a change. Even if Boyle is worse, benching Wilson may give them a spark down the road. Here's his post-game press conference from yesterday. Did Wilson get hurt?
On my bucket list. Not going to happen but I would LOVE to go to a Prime Time game at the New Jersey Jesters home away from home that they have to share with their in laws field to watch them suffer another what would be humiliating loss if it didn't happen so frequently to the Dolphins. Just need to be sure I have bail money.
I don't like what McDaniel said in his press conference. It makes me suspect he hasn't learned from the mistakes in our losses.
IMO, starting Tim Boyle is the worst move in the history of the NFL. His career touchdowns to interceptions are 45 touchdowns and 59 interceptions. By career, I mean high school, college, and pros. And it is not like he went to college at some big-time college and was behind some hall of famers. He went to UConn and then Eastern Kentucky, I guess to start his senior season. Where he had his best year with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. I have zero clue how this guy even made it to the NFL to become Rogers conspiracy buddy. I just assume conspiracy because it isn't because he is a good quarterback. It is not like he is a great athlete. He had negative 162 rushing yards in college and has negative 4 in the pros. Everyone on this board who didn't play football in college or the pros has more rushing yards than this guy. I am legit baffled why this guy is even in the NFL and it hurts my brain to think that this guy is going to start in an NFL game. It is like a bad Black Mirror episode where a guy is stuck in a simulation where he has to be a bad quarterback his entire life.
We have a friend whose son got a scholarship to EKU. Alex plays WR. We watched quite a few of his games and I can tell you this…EKU doesn’t develop quarterbacks. They are nothing but a running team so I’m not worried about Boyle’s prowess as a quarterback
Somehow that made me feel a little better about myself, LOL. I have more rushing yards than an NFL starter. For the record, I had one carry for 9 yards in high school, and 6 yards on an onside kick return! I'm like waaaay better than that guy, LOL.
If Hacket and Saleh had a brain cell between them, they'd start Siemian. Sure, he doesn't know the playbook but he was a serviceable NFL QB somewhere. Won some games.
Well it is the New York Jets. There’s something about that organization that sucks the brain cells out of anyone associated with that team.
