Tier 1 WRs: Allen, Patterson, Bailey and Hopkins, A Metrics Breakdown

Bailey is my favorite WR in this draft followed by Hopkins.

 

Bailey is so exactly what this team needs.

 

Very interesting breakdown indeed. I think there are some things we can glean from it, and some we need to be careful with. I made a post on his blog about it. Considering YAC yards, if you have an inaccurate quarterback, then that is going to limit your ability to gain YAC yards. Stedman Bailey, out of all four of these receivers, had the more accurate quarterback relative to passes in the 1-20 yard range. My guess is, Keenan Allen had the least accurate quarterback of the four.

I do find it interesting that if you standardize the targets like this guy does that Patterson's numbers would actually reach fairly dominant receiver levels. This gives us an idea of what he probably would have done with another year in the SEC, and what he could very well become once he is polished up some in the NFL. It may be enough data for me to bite the bullet and rate him #1. I've had a hard time doing that because I don't want to do it just on potential, and his overall numbers weren't dominant. This shows that if he maintained his averages and was targeted as a #1 guy in his offense, that he would have at least put up dominant yardage.

I do believe that the author of this has isolated the top 4 wide receivers in this draft based on overall ability, potential, and production though.

 

He should do the next "tier"; Patton, Hunter, Williams, Wheaton, (maybe Woods?)

I'd read that as well, looking forward to his Tavon Austin breakdown.

 

He does good work. His breakdown of the QBs was also good.

 

I love me some Stedman Bailey. My fave receiver this year.

Really would have liked to have seen Terrance Williams included in this analysis.

 

Keenan Allen and the west coast offense should be featured on a Match.com commercial, they are the truest of fits.

 

Watch Tavon Austin, the guy we've not talked about much b/c we've assumed he's going in round 1, end up being our 2a pick.

 

A couple of things stand out to me.

Some people have an automatic reaction against screens and so when they see receivers executing them, they think it's a negative. With a quarterback that might actually be true although I insist that consistent execution of screens speaks to a quarterback's arm strength, quickness and footwork...but that's another conversation. Even if excessive screens are considered "bad" for quarterbacks, the opposite is the case with a receiver. Run after catch is such a big part of a receiver's tool kit, and yards gained on a screen are almost purely earned by the receiver and not by anyone else. Being able to consistently gain yards on a screen makes things a lot easier on an offense and renders a lot of the things a defense does to confuse the quarterback useless.

With that said, when I see lack of screens run by Cordarrelle Patterson and DeAndre Hopkins, that would tend to disturb me. It makes me question the player's run after catch that the coaches didn't think they could run those screens and consistently gain yards. Except, with Cordarrelle, his tape is just oozing RAC skills. That's the kind of player he is. So that throws that theory out the window for him (that he wasn't running screens because he doesn't run well after the catch). To further that point, apparently Justin Hunter only ran screens about 10% of the time as well, and Patterson averaged about 12 yards per catch on screens. It just wasn't a big part of the offense, for inexplicable reasons.

Yet, with DeAndre Hopkins, I think the theory holds some truth to it. He looks smallish, weak, and not very fast to me with the ball in his hands. He's clearly more of a guy that you have to run routes and get open, rather than a guy in whose hands you get the ball any way you can because he'll do something exciting with it.

 

Those screen number tell me Bailey is going to be a Pats target.

 

I agree with all this, yet my sense is that the Dolphins offense needs to threaten defenses more vertically. Screens won't do that, though it speaks well of a player, I mainly need to know if he can be productive more than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage to put stress on the safeties.

Ideally, I want a player who can do both (Stedman Bailey).

 

I agree with the comment about screens being a positive for WRs and a potential negative for QBs (in terms of evaluations and looking at the numbers produced). But I'm not nearly as impressed with Patterson as many here. It seems to me that much of his running success is due to a speed advantage which won't be nearly as big at the next level. I don't think his lateral quickness is that special so I don't expect he'll be nearly as dynamic of a YAC producer in the NFL. He obviously has the potential to be a #1 WR if he has the work ethic and develops, but as with all WRs, especially those who have not already demonstrated polish in their routes at the college level, that's a big "IF". Personally, I am more confident in Bailey's odds of developing into that #1 WR. And I also love that his cost (in terms of a draft pick) is most likely lower. Allen is guy who I see as good, but not overly dynamic. I think Hopkins is more likely to become a WR who can occasionally dominate a game at the next level. I expect that Hopkins will go anywhere from the late first to early second while I expect that Allen will go in the first. I think the odds are very high that at least one of (if not both) Hopkins and Bailey will be available for our second round pick. I would prefer to risk getting Hopkins or Bailey later and adding another potentially elite talent at a different position in the first. I see that combination as giving us the best odds of adding multiple play makers in this draft.

 

I think Cordarrelle Patterson is going to rise, possibly into the top 10 and not even be available when Miami picks. He's got a rare combination of size, speed, agility and ball skills, and his attitude isn't sucky at all which is a nice bonus.

I think the other guy that is going to rise possibly into the 1st round is Markus Wheaton. He's going to be regarded as DeSean Jackson without maybe quite the same feet or RAC skills, or perhaps Santonio Holmes with DeSean Jackson's pure speed. Either way you've got a good player and he showed all through Senior Bowl week and during the game itself that he could run against top quality corners and get open and catch the football. Bottom line with him is, speed kills, and he's not one of those guys that looks faster on a track than on a football field, he's just a guy that is fast. Period. And he balances it with quickness to get off the line of scrimmage, competitiveness, and some ball skills.

Hard to say what's going to happen to Keenan Allen once he goes to the Combine and doesn't put up very interesting numbers. Same with DeAndre Hopkins.

Terrance Williams' combination of frame, speed, ball skills and production will put a floor underneath him. There's only so long he'll last before he's taken and I speculate that floor is about halfway through the 2nd round.

If Stedman Bailey goes out there and blazes like Golden Tate did, then he'll have helped himself tremendously. But I sense he's not going to be able to do that.

 

Agree with Chris, I'd put Wheaton ahead of Hopkins on our draft needs list b/c of the speed factor involved.

 

I loved the breakdowns and charts. That guy did a great job.

 

Well, the thing you have to take into account is the offensive philosophy the Dolphins have. If you look at Philbin's time in Green Bay, they only threw the ball 20+ yards down the field roughly 12-14% of the time. I doubt Miami suddenly changes that and becomes like Baltimore this year who threw around 20% of those passes.

A greater emphasis, I feel, will be placed on the ability to catch those 1-10 yard passes and get YAC yards on those plays.

 

If we have a guy who can accurately sling it down there and a guy who can catch it, I say we go for it more than 13% of the time.

 

I agree with all of that. I'd like to see Tank Carradine at 2a.

Also, what do you think of Terrance Williams? I like him, though not as much as bailey.

 

I felt Miami took a lot of shots deep, even with Hartline being their main deep threat. If you place another WR in that place, with Hartline taking the intermediate routes from his #2, then you might see more shots deep.

Sherman's offense might be a better benchmark to judge than Philbin's time in GB for something like % of passes over 20 yards, no? Or am I flawed in that thinking? Just how much input does Philbin have on the offensive playcalling?

 

I don't want Stedman to help himself. If he rises we never select him.

 

Consider this one a theory confirmed. The author of the study confirmed for me that DeAndre Hopkins average on screen passes was a paltry 1.66 yards per catch. Whomp whomp.

Keenan Allen gained 6.33 yards per catch on average on his screens, and Stedman Bailey gained 8.0 yards per catch on average on his screens.

As I said before, Cordarrelle Patterson gained about 12 yards per catch on average on his screens. Winner winner chicken dinner.

 

Great points.

Does anyone know te percentages we threw for zero, 1-5, 5-10, or whatever that article said?

I want to see which receivers percentages are closest to how we actually ran our passing offense this year.

 

I'd still rather have Bailey.

Lower cost (round two). More TDs. More deep threat. Still great YAC.

That said, we have a good redzone offense so we mainly need to move the chains to get to the redZone more often. Cordarrelle would help with that.

 

that's a nice stat...they all played in very good conferences so the level of competition was there..the Hopkins stat seems a little strange no?

 

I take into account the fact we're missing speed and what Ireland, Philbin, and Ross have said about needing more explosive plays etc. BTW, the deep ball is and was a part of Green Bay's offense, so I don't think it should be downplayed as if dink & dunk receivers are all we need.

 

Hopkins is a great possession receiver, but with an elite QB like Tajh Boyd throwing the ball and in Chad Morris's offensive system (which is full of weapons I might add), Keenen Allen, Wheaton, Patterson, Patton, and others would've put up eye-popping numbers. IMO Hopkins needs to keep working on improving his speed to where he's a 4.45 guy come combine. He's also got a little catching up to do in the size/strength department b/c of time spent on the Clemson basketball team.

To me, Hopkins belongs roughly in the mid 2nd, and I don't think I could put him ahead of Patton.

 

Not that strange to me as he's not all that physically compelling a wide receiver, either from a speed/quickness or strength/explosion standpoint. He's nice, but I've got essentially the same assessment I've had of him for a long time which is that he's another Brian Hartline/Mario Manningham.

 

I think he's a more athletic than Hartline.... but is still a possession receiver nonetheless.

 

I just think that like Hartline, he has trouble dealing with physicality either before, during or after the catch. So he's not going to make many explosive plays that way. That's ok if he's a speed/quickness guy and he just creates that much separation, including and especially in the end zone or deep. But I'm skeptical of a speed/quickness receiver that needs separation and a clean jersey to catch the football, but he's not got the 4.40 speed to consistently create those separation and clean jersey opportunities.

 

I agree with that.
I meant "more athletic" in the sense of being better when the ball is in the air (including being a better bad ball receiver, better in traffic, high-pointing, sideline grabs, improved RZ ability, and can track over either shoulder and play on the left or right whereas Hartline seems more comfortable on the right).
Sorry, I should've been more specific.

 

unless he runs a 4.4 or grows 3 to 4 inches I'd be quite surprised to see him go before our 2a. That's pretty much the precedent to go on from what I've seen. IMO he has a better chance of going in the 4th than before our 2a spot.

 

Yeah wow suddenly I look like a real idiot for mentioning him in the 4th round if that's the case. Nevermind. I love Bailey as much as anyone and I have a bit of trouble swallowing drafting him #40 in the draft, just because I think there is a lot more value there. That's likely me getting incredibly greedy, though. As it was stated (I believe by you, phinsational) if you like a guy and rate him to be a fringe 1st rounder, #40 wouldn't be bad. Trust yourself and grab him.

So many variables. This is why I love the draft.

 

It's all for fun and giggles. Here's one mock scenario I had recently just put together, just one of many directions you could go.

 

I'm not certain he will. You oughtn't be so certain he won't either.

 

Curious, wouldn;t all of those free agents' salaries go up in years two and three? How would that work under the cap? Or do we assume the cap will increase, and we will cut one or two of the underperforming FAs?

 

Not a huge fan. I don't think he's physical enough with the ball in the air and I think he makes Hartline appear sure-footed after the catch.

 

After watching Chris Houston's snaps in Detroit I... I kinda want him over Sean Smith. What is happening to me!?

 

You think Fauria will make it to the 5th rd?