Thoughts on Rosen's Debut

"KeyFin wrote:

By the way, Preston Williams will be a WR1 somewhere next season. The kid is phenomenal and easily worth a 1st round pick.
.

Don't you mean a WR1 in Miami next season.

Here's a video of all his throws from yesterday:

I do think you really can't evaluate the guy because it's only preseason, but remember his issues are primarily about decision making, and you can see a lot of throws were an INT waiting to happen. So sure after "no pocket presence" Tannehill a guy with decent pocket presence looks refreshing, but I'm not seeing good decision making here yet.

Again though.. have to wait till the regular season to see whether he's improved or not.

If there were a line with pessimism on one side and optimism on the other I would say I am on the optimism side, but just barely. With so many variables at play, it's tough to gauge just how well Rosen did. Sure, I am with you, Key, and liked a lot of throws Rosen made. However, it's who he is playing with and playing against that is mudding up the waters for me. Part of me is thinking that a legitimate QB would be slicing and dicing up a second rate defense playing a vanilla scheme. However, the other part of me is saying how can I expect that when our second rate offensive line is doing a great example of a turnstile. As they say, time will tell. I am pulling for the guy and hope he continues to improve. He's got nothing to lose by laying it on the line. A tie in the competition with Fitzpatrick most definitely will favor Rosen.

"cbrad wrote:

Here's a video of all his throws from yesterday:

I do think you really can't evaluate the guy because it's only preseason, but remember his issues are primarily about decision making, and you can see a lot of throws were an INT waiting to happen. So sure after "no pocket presence" Tannehill a guy with decent pocket presence looks refreshing, but I'm not seeing good decision making here yet.

Again though.. have to wait till the regular season to see whether he's improved or not.

I saw a quarterback, when he had time and a pocket, who looked very good.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

I saw a quarterback, when he had time and a pocket, who looked very good.

Most NFL QB’s are good when you give them time and a clean pocket. Tannehill was good in those situations too.

Rosen made too many ill-advised throws as you can see in that video. Why try to force a completion when being tackled? Roethlisberger and Luck can do that maybe but Rosen? That type of decision making will lead to unnecessary turnovers.

Also even when he had time to throw you saw him occasionally force it into coverage. This is precisely one of the things he needs to stop doing. Well like I said it’s only preseason but if that were a regular season game I’m not happy.

"Destroyer wrote:

Don't you mean a WR1 in Miami next season.

I DEFINITELY hope so...but you never know.

I just don't see anything "elite" about him. He looked comfortable out there, which he should have with 13 starts last season. Other rookie and 2nd year QBs are earning rave reviews out of their camps and Rosen has not for a reason.

On a related note, Preston looks like an elite prospect in his first camp as a rookie. He'll get even better but it doesnt take multiple seasons to figure out that kid has a bright future.

"cbrad wrote:

Here's a video of all his throws from yesterday:

I do think you really can't evaluate the guy because it's only preseason, but remember his issues are primarily about decision making, and you can see a lot of throws were an INT waiting to happen. So sure after "no pocket presence" Tannehill a guy with decent pocket presence looks refreshing, but I'm not seeing good decision making here yet.

Again though.. have to wait till the regular season to see whether he's improved or not.

Thanks for posting that!

I saw 2 throws trying to avoid the sack that he shouldn't have thrown (one was Williams circus catch, the other went into the ground).

I also saw 5 bad decisions on throws (the pick, targeting the wrong receiver, etc.) Some were caught, some weren't.

He also threw 4 or 5 50/50 balls to Williams which most of us would also say are ill-advised...but Williams caught every single one of them. A few of them were deep passes on 3rd down though so I guess we'd count them as less of a gamble....those were pretty much a punt with potential upside. =)

I saw three good throws (right receiver, generally on target) that were a little low or to the side (in other words, no chance for YAC).

So that's 10 throws that weren't great, plus 5 more that were a gamble. He ONLY seemed to gamble with Williams though so I'd call them calculated anyway. I also counted 11 throws (mostly with a clean pocket...3 or 4 were scrambling) that were big-time, NFL caliber throws perfectly placed.

As you said, 10 bad/poorly placed throws is definitely cause for concern...especially when we add in the jump balls on top of it. But at the same time, in his very first showing as a Dolphin, he set us up for three TD's. We can also say that he was facing 2nd-4th stringers most of the time and he had a ringer in Williams...so all of this means a lot of nothing.

I think the important part was that the line struggled, Rosen gambled too often and managed to look decent (and at times dominant) overall. I'll take decent in preseason 1 since we saw a boat-load of potential.

IMO Rosen performed as expected. He had some beautiful passes and some questionable decisions. That's his history going all the way back to college. Williams bailed him out on those 50/50 balls, but those same passes every week will as result in a ton of 3-4 interception days. That's the pitfall of evaluating on the result of the play rather than what the QB did.

I was encouraged that Rosen shook off that early INT. I like the resilience. Though I'm not sure if he just looked better b/c Atlanta took out most of their starters after that. I loved that deep pass down the sideline. The footwork and timing were perfect. He's always best when he goes with that initial read. But it seemed like he missed some quick reads too. He inexplicably seems to ignore the play design at times. I'd like to see him get some time with the starters as the preseason progresses. I thought the OL without Tunsil was equally bad all night and obviously he had great WR play so it's not as much about giving him a better supporting cast as it is about seeing him against better competition.

Hopefully the coach alternates who starts each preseason game.

My prediction is this...

Fitzpatrick will start 7 games this season before playing himself out of a job. That’s just his history. Rosen will will come in and barring any catastrophic injuries on the OL, Miami will win 6 of those final 9 games of the regular season

After last nights game I’m optimistic of this being a Cinderella season in Miami

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

My prediction is this...

Fitzpatrick will start 7 games this season before playing himself out of a job. That’s just his history. Rosen will will come in and barring any catastrophic injuries on the OL, Miami will win 6 of those final 9 games of the regular season

After last nights game I’m optimistic of this being a Cinderella season in Miami

I mean, imagine Williams spread out left, Parker to the right and Stills, Wilson or Grant in the slot. We have two QB's who like to throw the ball a country mile and two legit WR1 targets (if Parker really is that guy...). Then we have a speedster that nobody can figure out how to cover and two versatile backs- the pieces are in place for a potent offense.

My only problem is the damn line- talent means little if the QB can't buy a little time. It's been our achilles heel for over a decade now and we keep cutting/trading the few good ones we have to save money. If they somehow halfway figure it out this season though and the defense also improves (which you'd expect under Flores and the new scheme- how could it actually get worse anyway?!?), this could be a team that shocks a lot of people.

It could just as easily be a 3-13 team though, so we'll have to see how things shake out. There's still a lot of puzzle pieces that don't fit into the big picture yet!

I'm neither out or in on Rosen....but he didn't look good to me last night at all. He looked completely over his head.

"Makados10 wrote:

I just don't see anything "elite" about him. He looked comfortable out there, which he should have with 13 starts last season. Other rookie and 2nd year QBs are earning rave reviews out of their camps and Rosen has not for a reason.

On a related note, Preston looks like an elite prospect in his first camp as a rookie. He'll get even better but it doesnt take multiple seasons to figure out that kid has a bright future.

Dude, you gotta be kidding me. Look at his ball placement. He threw multiple big boy passes that I haven't seen a Dolphins' QB throw in a long time.

Someone else commented that when he actually had time to throw the ball, he looked great.

I am honestly curious as to how you would describe his ball placement.

my thoughts are: it was preseason week 1.

I give him a C+ in his limited 1st preseason game.Some good.some bad and some ugly but something to build on.

For a guy with a tennis background, he surely looked “heavy-footed” in the pocket. That’s kind of the biggest thing I noticed.

It’s preseason, so it’s about trying things and working out the kinks with limited play-calling and backups.

A handful of passes were stupid good. There were some that were just ‘meh’, and others that were awful.

I do hope he becomes better at recognizing the pass rush in the pocket, because I am not sure Miami is going to be elite in the O-line dept. (assuming that he gets playing time during the reg season).

Well first of all I saw the O line giving him NO TIME what so ever when he first got out there. The INT was absolutely on him and uncalled for. He had Parker open to his left for what would have been at least positive yardage. Some of the throws I thought we errant and gutsy, and there were times where Preston Williams just made him look good. I do like his pocket presence, he's got a little Aaron Rodgers to him and I really hope he can unlock that at some point. The talent is definitely there and I don't think we should pay too much attention to the BS camp rumors we hear, but with that said. I doubt he's our opening day starter unless he really balls out these next three preseason games. Still....We need to know sooner than later what exactly we have with him.

"ExplosionsInDaSky wrote:

Well first of all I saw the O line giving him NO TIME what so ever when he first got out there. The INT was absolutely on him and uncalled for. He had Parker open to his left for what would have been at least positive yardage. Some of the throws I thought we errant and gutsy, and there were times where Preston Williams just made him look good. I do like his pocket presence, he's got a little Aaron Rodgers to him and I really hope he can unlock that at some point. The talent is definitely there and I don't think we should pay too much attention to the BS camp rumors we hear, but with that said. I doubt he's our opening day starter unless he really balls out these next three preseason games. Still....We need to know sooner than later what exactly we have with him.

I agree. If he's not the guy, we want to know as soon as possible. If he is the guy...same thing. He did make several plays that we haven't ever seen from a Miami QB as far as I can remember (pushing defenders to the ground, rolling well outside the pocket with heavy pressure, a few freaking incredible mid-range bullets, etc.).

So I'm personally encouraged by what I saw. He's not a natural day 1 starter yet but I'm okay with that- just keep letting the kid get reps and take shots. People just need to remember that we have plenty of time with him- he doesn't have to be the starter this year or even next season. The big thing for me is that IF this kid develops, he could be the second-coming of Marino for a very long time.

"KeyFin wrote:

The big thing for me is that IF this kid develops, he could be the second-coming of Marino for a very long time.

Let's not go overboard here lol.

Marino comes in around 10th or so all time using era-adjusted passer rating (z-scores) which is impressive, but Marino's most impressive stat is that he has the 2nd highest z-score for TD's in any single NFL season behind Peyton Manning for QB's with 6+ games started that season. Manning in 2013 tops the list with 55 TD's when league average was 25.125 and standard deviation was 8.0673 giving him a z-score of 3.7032. But Marino's 1984 season is #2 with a z-score of 3.4576 (48 TD's when average was 21.9643 and S.D. was 7.5301).

And Marino did that in year 2. You think Rosen is up to that challenge? Using 2018 numbers, Rosen would need to throw 56 TD's in a single season to beat Marino and 58 to beat Peyton. QB's in that top 10 all-time category are in another class really. I think the ceiling for Rosen is more like "consistently above average QB" which would be awesome btw. We're not looking at anything elite here even IF he develops.

"cbrad wrote:

Let's not go overboard here lol.

Marino comes in around 10th or so all time using era-adjusted passer rating (z-scores) which is impressive, but Marino's most impressive stat is that he has the 2nd highest z-score for TD's in any single NFL season behind Peyton Manning for QB's with 6+ games started that season. Manning in 2013 tops the list with 55 TD's when league average was 25.125 and standard deviation was 8.0673 giving him a z-score of 3.7032. But Marino's 1984 season is #2 with a z-score of 3.4576 (48 TD's when average was 21.9643 and S.D. was 7.5301).

And Marino did that in year 2. You think Rosen is up to that challenge? Using 2018 numbers, Rosen would need to throw 56 TD's in a single season to beat Marino and 58 to beat Peyton. QB's in that top 10 all-time category are in another class really. I think the ceiling for Rosen is more like "consistently above average QB" which would be awesome btw. We're not looking at anything elite here even IF he develops.

Yeah, maybe an eventual Marino comparison is too strong- but I couldn't think of anyone elite yet not one of the best of all time at the moment. And like I said, maybe he never gets anywhere near that level...that certainly wasn't a prediction. But the kid has some awesome evasion skills and a great arm; that's a rare combination these days. What we don't know is how he will process the field in the next few years....and that's really 90% of being an NFL QB. I'm just really excited to see a young guy handle pressure that well compared to what we've had the past few decades.

For instance, I know he shouldn't have thrown that pass to Williams when he was in the grasp, but Tannehill would have been strip sacked there 9 times out of 10. To see someone that young stay composed, drag the guy a few feet, scan the field and then get a pass off (it was an ugly pass....but that's not the point)....that potential is super, super rare these days. And he throws a great ball with a clean pocket so I think he has a ton of room to develop.

Like you said earlier, maybe he never gets there and his ceiling is pretty low. I'm just happy we have a real candidate developing...I'd be just as happy if he's a bust and we have a new guy in the same situation a few years from now. The only way to get better is to bring those types into camp and let them develop, and we just haven't done that for a very long time. To me it's been our #1 weakness as a franchise.

"firedan wrote:

I give him a C+ in his limited 1st preseason game.Some good.some bad and some ugly but something to build on.

I would say B+ based on the strength of our OL but it's subjective I guess. He made several nice throws down the sideline, and also got out of trouble when the OL got blown up on more than one occasion. There were a few late throws on timing routes, and that one bad pick, but as basically a redshirt (pro) freshmen, he did better than I expected.

I'd like to see at least 2 quarters of him every preseason game, and the starting position certainly shouldnt be a lock for Fitz, he needs to earn it. He got little playing time in game 1, but the few throws he did get were just ugly.

"IdrA wrote:

I'd like to see at least 2 quarters of him every preseason game, and the starting position certainly shouldnt be a lock for Fitz, he needs to earn it. He got little playing time in game 1, but the few throws he did get were just ugly.

Were they? I didn't get to see any of his drives. The articles online said he moved the ball pretty easily....was he not that great? And how did the 1st string line (minus Tunsil) do?

"KeyFin wrote:

The big thing for me is that IF this kid develops, he could be the second-coming of Marino for a very long time.

You're much more optimistic than I am. IMO IF he develops he could be a nice back-up or lower tier starter until we find a franchise QB.