Thoughts on Day 1 and 2 overall???

"SF_Dolphins_Fan wrote:

I guess "my opinion" is that it's nearly impossible for me to know which player drafted out of college will have a productive NFL career.
I just think it is more sensible to evaluate/analyze a draft a year or two after its happened. The skill level of college rosters is so much less than NFL rosters that (until draftees actually play NFL games) nobody knows how they will perform.

Fair enough, but it's not about "knowing" for me. It's about giving my opinion on different players coming out of college, not wether I think that opinion turns out to be right or wrong .

"hitman8 wrote:

Fair enough, but it's not about "knowing" for me. It's about giving my opinion on different players coming out of college, not wether I think that opinion turns out to be right or wrong .

Yes, I do understand where you're coming from, and it's certainly popular for t.v. broadcasters and fans to discuss the merits of this or that draft pick as it happens. I guess my nature is to avoid offering opinions unless I have good , accurate knowledge of the subject.
Regarding the NFL I am consistently surprised at how ineffective teams are at using the draft to acquire long term productive players.
For example, this recently completely draft will ultimately reveal several first round "busts" and several late round "superstar players".
Considering the human and financial resources the NFL teams have their disposal, it is amazing to me how many "draft mistakes" that most NFL teams seem to make.

"my 2 cents wrote:

All the reports are that he is a good country Mississippi kid that gives great effort...but all that said it does not help him find the ball.......now a new rule putting a bell on the ball and he is All Pro......

he is like a fastball pitcher, he only knows one speed...full out forward ....while guys run by him or under him.............

I dont need a DT to find the ball all the time. I need a DT who can occupy blockers and create penetration on run downs for the LBs to clean up.

That said, like I said he needs motivation not because he is a bad kid but in order to improve the areas he can to be a consistent player.

It will be interesting to see how Davis responds now that football will be a full-time job.

"hitman8 wrote:

Why? It's a message board, you don't get/lose points for being right or wrong.

In all honestly, your opinions aren't valid...because you're not an NFL scout working for a GM who's explained exactly what he's looking for. Neither am I, of course, and what we might like/dislike has nothing to do with the front office's overall vision for this football team. For instance, I have said publicly a dozen times DON'T PICK TUA, yet I also said that he was a virtual lock at #5. That's the difference between my opinion and the front office's opinion- they're the ones putting the pieces together and seeing how it will all fit.

You and I- we're picking names in a vacuum....hey, this kid is fast and agile, we should definitely pick him! Yet teams are looking at 100 things we wouldn't even think about, which is why some players get drafted way earlier than expected and why some don't get drafted at all. Our opinions on the draft are like comparing colors...I like purple while you like green...who's right? There is no answer.

Folks who say they want to pass judgement after a year are taking the smart approach because then we can talk about actual performance in the NFL....everything before that is pointless. All those draft gurus out there giving us grades are completely clueless right now since they're guessing just as much as we are. Because even if they know college players 100x better than us, they still can't understand what our coaches value and how each pick fits a larger scheme.

"KeyFin wrote:

In all honestly, your opinions aren't valid...because you're not an NFL scout working for a GM who's explained exactly what he's looking for. Neither am I, of course, and what we might like/dislike has nothing to do with the front office's overall vision for this football team. For instance, I have said publicly a dozen times DON'T PICK TUA, yet I also said that he was a virtual lock at #5. That's the difference between my opinion and the front office's opinion- they're the ones putting the pieces together and seeing how it will all fit.

You and I- we're picking names in a vacuum....hey, this kid is fast and agile, we should definitely pick him! Yet teams are looking at 100 things we wouldn't even think about, which is why some players get drafted way earlier than expected and why some don't get drafted at all. Our opinions on the draft are like comparing colors...I like purple while you like green...who's right? There is no answer.

Folks who say they want to pass judgement after a year are taking the smart approach because then we can talk about actual performance in the NFL....everything before that is pointless. All those draft gurus out there giving us grades are completely clueless right now since they're guessing just as much as we are. Because even if they know college players 100x better than us, they still can't understand what our coaches value and how each pick fits a larger scheme.

I agree we don't know exactly what they are thinking, but whether we "know" everything or not should not discourage us from giving opinions on players and picks. Film, testing numbers, public interviews etc... are publicly available for fans and analysts to see and dissect if they want to, and to discuss it on public forums like this as well if they want to.

It's a fun exercise, yeah my interpretation might me misinformed, have incomplete information or be completely wrong, but that doesn't mean I or anyone else should shut up and not have any opinions about the players and picks. Who cares if it turns out to be right or wrong? That's not the point.

It's a message forum to discuss opinions. If you are going to discourage any sort of critical discussion of picks or players then what is the point of having this forum anyway?

"hitman8 wrote:

I agree we don't know exactly what they are thinking, but whether we "know" everything or not should not discourage us from giving opinions on players and picks. Film, testing numbers, public interviews etc... are publicly available for fans and analysts to see and dissect if they want to, and to discuss it on public forums like this as well if they want to.

It's a fun exercise, yeah my interpretation might me misinformed, have incomplete information or be completely wrong, but that doesn't mean I or anyone else should shut up and not have any opinions about the players and picks. Who cares if it turns out to be right or wrong? That's not the point.

It's a message forum to discuss opinions. If you are going to discourage any sort of critical discussion of picks or players then what is the point of having this forum anyway?

I'm not discouraging discussions at all- but I am discouraging judgement since that's 100% pointless. For instance, we had someone say fire Grier over this draft....that's a ridiculous overreaction based on absolutely nothing but ignorance.

Drafting is the 1st step in a process....developing those players is far more important and where the magic happens. We can debate names all day long but it all comes down to what ultimately happens on the field over the next few years.

"KeyFin wrote:

I'm not discouraging discussions at all- but I am discouraging judgement since that's 100% pointless. For instance, we had someone say fire Grier over this draft....that's a ridiculous overreaction based on absolutely nothing but ignorance.

Drafting is the 1st step in a process....developing those players is far more important and where the magic happens. We can debate names all day long but it all comes down to what ultimately happens on the field over the next few years.

I doubt Grier is going to get fired because someone on a message forum suggested it. If Grier gets fired it will be because the team and the players he picks don't end up performing on the field.

If whoever said that in this forum thinks that, he has a right to say it. It is his opinion. You or I don't have to agree with it at this point, everyone can make up their own mind about it, but we shouldn't discourage people from saying what they think as long as we are not insulting each other.

"KeyFin wrote:

In all honestly, your opinions aren't valid...because you're not an NFL scout working for a GM who's explained exactly what he's looking for.

Not a valid argument, since NFL scouts and GMs are so frequently wrong. An opinion by a rando on a message board has, on average, as much chance of being right as the average NFL team in the draft.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Not a valid argument, since NFL scouts and GMs are so frequently wrong. An opinion by a rando on a message board has, on average, as much chance of being right as the average NFL team in the draft.

I question the NFL GM's who say "we don't draft for a particular position, we're taking the best player available (BPA)".
What does that even mean ?

"SF_Dolphins_Fan wrote:

I question the NFL GM's who say "we don't draft for a particular position, we're taking the best player available (BPA)".
What does that even mean ?

That means the guy was higher on their draft board, but those are incredibly subjective. GMs and scouts and coaches base that on things like their assumptions about character and work ethic and upside, but they're frequently misled about things like that. Players are coached by their agents in what to say and how to say it. IMHO, the only thing you can really count on when looking at a prospective draft pick is how they performed in college against quality opponents. If they didn't work hard in college, they won't work hard in the NFL. If they took plays off in college, they'll take plays off in the NFL. If they got into trouble in college, they'll get into trouble in the NFL.
There are exceptions, but not enough to base your draft strategy on them.

"KeyFin wrote:

Neither am I, of course, and what we might like/dislike has nothing to do with the front office's overall vision for this football team. .

Hold the phone please, and stop right there. Your comment here about "overall vision for the football team" is something I question.
The late , great Bill Walsh was sensational at using the draft to assemble an effective roster of players. He absolutely chose players based on how he expected that they would perform within his style of playing offense and defense.
These days it seems most NFL GM's/coaches don't have a well defined system/vision and as such their draft selection criteria is not especially refined or purposeful.

"SF_Dolphins_Fan wrote:

These days it seems most NFL GM's/coaches....

There's really no way to reply to a response that generic and that far from the truth. Every GM has a strategy for every draft...they spend months preparing with their staff to get the best possible fits for their team. Some are obviously better than others, but nobody is walking into draft day just guessing- each has a refined plan.

"hitman8 wrote:

Overall I am not very happy with the draft. There is not one pick where I can say we knocked it out of the park. Reached on most guys we got and did not work any trades to snatch some key players that went just before us.

1a Tua: I get the pick, he is projected as a franchise QB and we badly need one. However his injury history is too risky for my tastes and I also think he is a bit overrated as a result of playing on an all star team his entire college career. I personally would have preferred we trade down for more picks and value, or stayed put and picked LB Simmons or OT Wills then gotten our QB with Love at 1c or Eason on day 2. Grade B-.

1b. Jackson, I think it is a slight reach, and that is one of my main gripes with the draft, most of the guys we picked were reaches. Austin has good upside, but I think we could have gotten him at #26. Should have made a play for some of the top tier tackles that went before. Grade B-.

1c. Noah Igbinoghene, another reach. I dont think he is better than Fulton for example, and I would have drafted a different position with this pick, or better yet moved up a bit to get Ruiz. Noah is a slot corner, not the position you should be drafting first round. Grade C+.

Day 2.
2a. Hunt, good pick. I like it, not much of a reach. Solid powerful guard who can also move and play tackle if needed. Building the trenches. I'm happy with the pick. Grade A-

2b. Davis I think a bit of a reach for a one dimensional player, would have preferred DT Jordan Elliot or Gallimore at this spot. Davis's floor is gap plugger with good anchor who can push the pocket a bit. Grade C+.

3 (#70). Dont like this pick at all. Another reach for a guy projected to go on day 3, is coming off an injury, did not test, and just does nothing exceptionally well. His tape is very underwhelming, sure he played all over the secondary, but he did not excell at any one position. He looks more like a special teams guy which is not what I want from 3rd round pick. Nothing about the guy impresses me other than he seems to be a hard worker and likes to study film. There were many better players on the board at this point. This looks like a panic pick cuz they needed a safety and the jets got Ashtyn Davis a few slots before, but even then I think there were even better safeties available like Utah's Blackmon or Clemson's Tanner Muse. Just a head scratching pick overall. Grade D.

Overall draft Grade so far: C+.

Only thing Im just going to agree with
I see your frustration and it’s ok Big guy
I agree too I wanted Neville Gallimore

The rest are Meh / some of these guys might end being good freaking Depth guys In A year or 2 .

Just keep your negativity from Tua lol
We know all about the injuries already .. that goes for Everyone in here .

"my 2 cents wrote:

What are your personal thoughts on the draft to this point?.

This is obviously the most impactful part of the draft and IMHO the keys are pics 20-75 from a quality perspective:

My personal thoughts are I like to really like the first four picks, hate the 5th pick and a bit cold on the 6th pick.
1.Tua: a need and high ceiling well documented and I like the gamble.
2.Jackson: 20 year old high ceiling guy that might need a year but his floor is not as low as people think IMHO. Likely a bit overdrafted this year but at 21 or 22 he is a top 10 type pick IMHO. given the need at the position I am warm on this pick.
3 Noah vowels: Really like this pick and I had him as CB3. Huge upside and solid slot corner downside. A lot of room to grow and if he plays the position another two years he is a top 15 pick. Best football; is ahead of him and he is pretty damn good right now. Forget the position he was a solid slot if not undervalued based on his upside.
4. Robert Hunt: Love this pick at 39. Correct slot and the player fits. I personally think he is a tackle. He has enough feet and hands to play outside IMHO and will absolutely move people off the ball on his nose. I think he is plug and play and a perfect type player to combine with a one year high upside developmental guard. If you have a higher upside RT drop in your lap anytime he can drop down to guard and find the second level.....between he and Noah Vowels as far as best value pick IMHO.
5. Raekwon Davis: Hate this pick...not just ehhh. but one of the most overrated players in this draft. If it were an athletic ability contest he is a top 10 pick, big strong, agile and gives effort...not a bad kid, just cant find the ball and gets turned surprisingly easy when he is asked to hold ground. One trick pony,... attack upfield and teams are going to run under him all day, just not a very instinctive or aware player...slotted about where everyone said, but just not a fan of this player...or the slot, at all. Why draft a one trick one down player at this slot....???????? No value here.
6. Brandon Jones.......slotted about where he should have been. Great effort guy but not as versatile as some might see initially. He needs space and if he gets isolated then you have trouble. Gets fooled on vertical combo routes, especially when in man over coverage but solid in the box and in man under he will get physical, he will help and deliver a blow. I personally think he needs pass rush help as I am not sold on his long speed and if plays extend he tends to lose vertically and give up big plays....a little cold on this pick as the player not the slot. Slot was around where most thought.

Lots of picks on day three and some really good players and fits left, and a couple dice rolls....

Good write up. Just to touch on one player, Davis, I don't "hate" the pick. I think his problem is he needs motivation. His first year playing in Alabama he was a monster. He dropped off in production due to, IMO, relying more on athletic skill than any mental preparation. If Flores can reach this kid he has the ability to be an All-Pro. Hopefully that happens, and they think they can reach him...I'm concerned, but don't hate the pick.

"hitman8 wrote:

Fair enough, but it's not about "knowing" for me. It's about giving my opinion on different players coming out of college, not wether I think that opinion turns out to be right or wrong .

But you're upset because you don't like the picks...because you don't think they will be good players. If you thought they would be good players, you wouldn't care.

Just my opinion.

"resnor wrote:

But you're upset because you don't like the picks...because you don't think they will be good players. If you thought they would be good players, you wouldn't care.

Just my opinion.

If he thought they would be good players he would probably be happy, not indifferent.

One of the things I find hardest about this site is that everyone will state their true opinion, but as soon as player X becomes a Dolphin they want to justify the player regardless of how they felt before.

I dont share all of his opinions but I think he is like me where his opinion of a player wont change because the player has signed on.

I cant speak for him but if hes really a fan I bet he hopes hes 100% wrong on his evaluations. You can hope something though and look at it negatively for what it is.

I've kind of calmed down over the draft. I just want Tua to prove me wrong personally.

My overall grade for this draft is a solid A.

The grade is based not just on the person drafted, but also team need, scheme fit, and value based upon where they were drafted.

Tua: A+....I get that some are worried about his hip. I get it. I'm concerned, too. However, I remember being concerned about Brees' shoulder. And as someone who actually knows a little about medicine in general and skeletal injuries specifically, I'm telling you that every player has a chance to get injured, but Tua's chances are not really anymore great than the next player. His chances for dislocating his hip gain is about a 1%-2% chance. I also realize that some like to bring up his ankle "surgeries" as some sort of evidence that he's injury prone. These people don't typically realize that those were elective surgeries. He elected to have them so his ankle sprains would heal faster AND in the future have better ankle stability. If you do a little google search you'd see that Alabama has been providing this surgery to their athletes for awhile now, and there are NFL players with the same "tightrope" in their legs right now doing just fine. Hell, Jalen Hurts had it done. The only reason they are being talked about is because he dislocated his hip and some like to talk about his ankle sprains to prove something that's just not true. Tua suffered an extremely rare and sever injury...no doubt. However, by all accounts he is healthy and will not suffer any complications from that injury until possibly in old age. He was the best QB in this draft. I get that some like Burrow better, I get it, but Tua had the most productive college QB career in history.

Jackson: B....I thought there were better players on the board. I thought we could have got him lower in the draft. I liked Josh Jones and he went a lot later in the draft. I give him a B because he has the potential to be a good starter.

Noah Iggy- A... I DO feel as if this was maybe a reach, but the potential for this guy is great. And isn't that why you draft a player, potential? He has fantastic hips, good speed, intelligence, but is raw, being that he started as a WR. We know that Flores loves his DB's so if he decided on him here, I have faith he's going to be good.

Hunt: A...Kid is a beast. He will be a starter by the end of the season. As with all rookies he needs to work on some things, but I have high hopes for this kid.

Davis: B... See previous post on my thought for Davis

Jones: B...I'm giving this pick a B because of the value. I think he could have been picked later and he was a reach. However, I love the player. Tough, smart, he's versatile and can play S or CB.

Kindley: A...Giant, nasty, mauler. Needs technique work, but if he can be coached up he will be a steal. Love his make-up and mentality.

Strowbridge: A... Greta value and potential for a 5th round pick. My grade is based ONLY on that because I'm not done watching film on him yet.

Weaver- D...He had good production in college, but he's too slow, IMO, to have success against NFL tackles. He will need to be smarter than his opponents because he's not going to out physical them. He's also not great against the run. I think he's a smart kid with a good work ethic, so maybe that will propel him to becoming a starter, but I'm not hopeful.

Ferguson: ??...No comment. lol

Perry: A+...Besides Tua...my favorite pick..not because I think he's a huge need, but he can be a game changer.

"resnor wrote:

But you're upset because you don't like the picks...because you don't think they will be good players. If you thought they would be good players, you wouldn't care.

Just my opinion.

He's just perpetually upset and constantly wrong. I'm sure it's a personal problem with him. lol

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

If he thought they would be good players he would probably be happy, not indifferent.

One of the things I find hardest about this site is that everyone will state their true opinion, but as soon as player X becomes a Dolphin they want to justify the player regardless of how they felt before.

I dont share all of his opinions but I think he is like me where his opinion of a player wont change because the player has signed on.

I cant speak for him but if hes really a fan I bet he hopes hes 100% wrong on his evaluations. You can hope something though and look at it negatively for what it is.

I've kind of calmed down over the draft. I just want Tua to prove me wrong personally.

I guess you need to go back and read his posts from the past. He's nothing but negative, full of himself, and irrational. If you've noticed everybody here is giving opinions, yet he seems to get singled out. It's because people are just tired of his attitude and demeanor. Now, if I'm being honest he seems to be maybe mellowing out a little with his last couple days of posts...but he's still very angry...lol

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

If he thought they would be good players he would probably be happy, not indifferent.

One of the things I find hardest about this site is that everyone will state their true opinion, but as soon as player X becomes a Dolphin they want to justify the player regardless of how they felt before.

I dont share all of his opinions but I think he is like me where his opinion of a player wont change because the player has signed on.

I cant speak for him but if hes really a fan I bet he hopes hes 100% wrong on his evaluations. You can hope something though and look at it negatively for what it is.

I've kind of calmed down over the draft. I just want Tua to prove me wrong personally.

I don't see that happening very often.

I see a lot of people hope for the best.

If Herbert was drafted I would start trying to find things I like about him. Just more fun for me to be a hopeful fan. I would be upset.

Like with DeVante Parker. I was not a fan. When he was drafted though I wanted to be happy with the pick.

The fans I don't understand are the ones that seem gleeful that they don't like a pick and then he fails. I imagine that they are miserable people in real life.

Another thing. DanMarino and Hitman8 both think Iggy is a reach.

DanMarino is like, "In my opinion he is a reach." I don't agree, but not worth arguing.

Hitman8 is like, "No one had him in the first round. Everyone things he is a reach. Horrible pick." I don't agree, however, blatantly wrong. Using hyperbole to try to prove a point is just annoying.

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

I don't see that happening very often.

I see a lot of people hope for the best.

If Herbert was drafted I would start trying to find things I like about him. Just more fun for me to be a hopeful fan. I would be upset.

Like with DeVante Parker. I was not a fan. When he was drafted though I wanted to be happy with the pick.

The fans I don't understand are the ones that seem gleeful that they don't like a pick and then he fails. I imagine that they are miserable people in real life.

FTR, I was incredibly unhappy with Tua but I'm past it and definitely dont want him to fail so I can be right.

I know you didnt lump me into that, but my immediate reaction could definitely have been taken that way. Quarantine and negative perception of a player can be a hell of a combo.

People probably just have more negative emotions pent up right now and the draft is an easy way to take it out.

I agree though that regardless of perception we should WANT it to work out. If you dont want it to work then I'd say you arent a fan.

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

I don't see that happening very often.

I see a lot of people hope for the best.

If Herbert was drafted I would start trying to find things I like about him. Just more fun for me to be a hopeful fan. I would be upset.

Like with DeVante Parker. I was not a fan. When he was drafted though I wanted to be happy with the pick.

The fans I don't understand are the ones that seem gleeful that they don't like a pick and then he fails. I imagine that they are miserable people in real life.

Exactly! If Herbert was the pick at 5 I'd have been upset because I wanted Tua. However, today I'd be hopeful and pointing out the good with him. Because like it or not, 100% of all NFL players that are drafted have good things to be said about them.

I don't know why some take the draft so personal, but I think you're absolutely correct in that they are most likely miserable in real life.

"danmarino wrote:

Exactly! If Herbert was the pick at 5 I'd have been upset because I wanted Tua. However, today I'd be hopeful and pointing out the good with him. Because like it or not, 100% of all NFL players that are drafted have good things to be said about them.

I don't know why some take the draft so personal, but I think you're absolutely correct in that they are most likely miserable in real life.

None of us really know and all of us have been very right or very wrong.

One thing I always find funny is the idea that a certain player for sure could have been had later. There is absolutely no way people know that. No one had Josh Jones in the 3rd round, no one had Weaver in the 6th, and heck no one had CeeDee Lamb going to 17. We don't know what teams think. We only know what teams want us to think and people that don't work for teams think.