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Thoughts on Day 1 and 2 overall???

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by my 2 cents, Apr 25, 2020.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But you're upset because you don't like the picks...because you don't think they will be good players. If you thought they would be good players, you wouldn't care.

    Just my opinion.
     
  2. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    If he thought they would be good players he would probably be happy, not indifferent.

    One of the things I find hardest about this site is that everyone will state their true opinion, but as soon as player X becomes a Dolphin they want to justify the player regardless of how they felt before.

    I dont share all of his opinions but I think he is like me where his opinion of a player wont change because the player has signed on.

    I cant speak for him but if hes really a fan I bet he hopes hes 100% wrong on his evaluations. You can hope something though and look at it negatively for what it is.

    I've kind of calmed down over the draft. I just want Tua to prove me wrong personally.
     
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  3. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    My overall grade for this draft is a solid A.

    The grade is based not just on the person drafted, but also team need, scheme fit, and value based upon where they were drafted.

    Tua: A+....I get that some are worried about his hip. I get it. I'm concerned, too. However, I remember being concerned about Brees' shoulder. And as someone who actually knows a little about medicine in general and skeletal injuries specifically, I'm telling you that every player has a chance to get injured, but Tua's chances are not really anymore great than the next player. His chances for dislocating his hip gain is about a 1%-2% chance. I also realize that some like to bring up his ankle "surgeries" as some sort of evidence that he's injury prone. These people don't typically realize that those were elective surgeries. He elected to have them so his ankle sprains would heal faster AND in the future have better ankle stability. If you do a little google search you'd see that Alabama has been providing this surgery to their athletes for awhile now, and there are NFL players with the same "tightrope" in their legs right now doing just fine. Hell, Jalen Hurts had it done. The only reason they are being talked about is because he dislocated his hip and some like to talk about his ankle sprains to prove something that's just not true. Tua suffered an extremely rare and sever injury...no doubt. However, by all accounts he is healthy and will not suffer any complications from that injury until possibly in old age. He was the best QB in this draft. I get that some like Burrow better, I get it, but Tua had the most productive college QB career in history.

    Jackson: B....I thought there were better players on the board. I thought we could have got him lower in the draft. I liked Josh Jones and he went a lot later in the draft. I give him a B because he has the potential to be a good starter.

    Noah Iggy- A... I DO feel as if this was maybe a reach, but the potential for this guy is great. And isn't that why you draft a player, potential? He has fantastic hips, good speed, intelligence, but is raw, being that he started as a WR. We know that Flores loves his DB's so if he decided on him here, I have faith he's going to be good.

    Hunt: A...Kid is a beast. He will be a starter by the end of the season. As with all rookies he needs to work on some things, but I have high hopes for this kid.

    Davis: B... See previous post on my thought for Davis

    Jones: B...I'm giving this pick a B because of the value. I think he could have been picked later and he was a reach. However, I love the player. Tough, smart, he's versatile and can play S or CB.

    Kindley: A...Giant, nasty, mauler. Needs technique work, but if he can be coached up he will be a steal. Love his make-up and mentality.

    Strowbridge: A... Greta value and potential for a 5th round pick. My grade is based ONLY on that because I'm not done watching film on him yet.

    Weaver- D...He had good production in college, but he's too slow, IMO, to have success against NFL tackles. He will need to be smarter than his opponents because he's not going to out physical them. He's also not great against the run. I think he's a smart kid with a good work ethic, so maybe that will propel him to becoming a starter, but I'm not hopeful.

    Ferguson: ??...No comment. lol

    Perry: A+...Besides Tua...my favorite pick..not because I think he's a huge need, but he can be a game changer.
     
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  4. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    He's just perpetually upset and constantly wrong. I'm sure it's a personal problem with him. lol
     
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  5. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    I guess you need to go back and read his posts from the past. He's nothing but negative, full of himself, and irrational. If you've noticed everybody here is giving opinions, yet he seems to get singled out. It's because people are just tired of his attitude and demeanor. Now, if I'm being honest he seems to be maybe mellowing out a little with his last couple days of posts...but he's still very angry...lol
     
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  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I don't see that happening very often.

    I see a lot of people hope for the best.

    If Herbert was drafted I would start trying to find things I like about him. Just more fun for me to be a hopeful fan. I would be upset.

    Like with DeVante Parker. I was not a fan. When he was drafted though I wanted to be happy with the pick.

    The fans I don't understand are the ones that seem gleeful that they don't like a pick and then he fails. I imagine that they are miserable people in real life.
     
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  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Another thing. DanMarino and Hitman8 both think Iggy is a reach.

    DanMarino is like, "In my opinion he is a reach." I don't agree, but not worth arguing.

    Hitman8 is like, "No one had him in the first round. Everyone things he is a reach. Horrible pick." I don't agree, however, blatantly wrong. Using hyperbole to try to prove a point is just annoying.
     
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    FTR, I was incredibly unhappy with Tua but I'm past it and definitely dont want him to fail so I can be right.

    I know you didnt lump me into that, but my immediate reaction could definitely have been taken that way. Quarantine and negative perception of a player can be a hell of a combo.

    People probably just have more negative emotions pent up right now and the draft is an easy way to take it out.

    I agree though that regardless of perception we should WANT it to work out. If you dont want it to work then I'd say you arent a fan.
     
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  9. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    Exactly! If Herbert was the pick at 5 I'd have been upset because I wanted Tua. However, today I'd be hopeful and pointing out the good with him. Because like it or not, 100% of all NFL players that are drafted have good things to be said about them.

    I don't know why some take the draft so personal, but I think you're absolutely correct in that they are most likely miserable in real life.
     
  10. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    None of us really know and all of us have been very right or very wrong.

    One thing I always find funny is the idea that a certain player for sure could have been had later. There is absolutely no way people know that. No one had Josh Jones in the 3rd round, no one had Weaver in the 6th, and heck no one had CeeDee Lamb going to 17. We don't know what teams think. We only know what teams want us to think and people that don't work for teams think.
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    PFF's rundown:
    Like I've said repeatedly here, I don't see why they reached so often instead of moving back and picking up extra draft capital, either this year or next. It's like they had very little understanding of where the players they wanted were expected to go and how they could select them at later spots. It seems like the lazy and unintelligent approach to taking developmental players with high ceilings.
     
  12. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    I disagree about all those players being reaches. I mean, according to PFF's board they may have been, but PFF's boared isn't the end-all-be-all.

    Anyhow, even when PFF talks about reaching for a player, they include positive things. And at the end of the day, they gave the Dolphins an A-....
     
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  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    People say Austin Jackson is a reach. We do not know if he would have made it to 26. Plus, who cares if they are a reach? If they work out, in two years no one would be saying the Dolphins could have had him later. They would say that he was the perfect pick.

    If Tom Brady was a first round pick, no one would be talking about how much he was a reach.
     
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  14. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    In the end, it's only a reach if your guy bombs and doesnt develop.

    I do think reaches exist. For instance you cant convince me EJ Manuel wasnt a reach entirely based on the position he plays and a draft class lacking at the position.

    At the same time though, to me it's only a reach if the player fails and the alternatives you had on your board succeed.

    If we drafted a player a full round earlier than projected but he plays well, in the end its justified.

    We dont know where players will fall, but fir example if someone took Jalen Hurts #1 overall, is that not a reach?
     
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  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    If he becomes a hall of fame quarterback everyone would talk about how genius the Bengals were for drafting him #1.
     
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  16. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You can look at it that way and to an extent I agree. Humor me though for a second and try and look at it from the other view, not agree necessarily but just look.

    Yes it would be genius, but it would be double genius to pick up a player like Chase Young at #1 overall and take Hurts somewhere after that.

    Even though we may not know the board of every team, there is at least some consensus on a lot of players where you have a feeling where they "should" go or where the earliest you see them off the board is.

    Again like I said it's only a true reach if the player performs to the standard expectations of him and not his draft slot.

    So if Hurts went #1 overall and succeeded the pick would be a success, but would it be the best way to acquire that player?
     
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  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    However, this talk only exists before the draft and after the draft.

    When the season starts the term "reach" is only used when a player is failing. If the player succeeds then it looks to be a genius pick. If Hurts goes #1 overall and becomes a NFL hall of famer, how are we supposed to know that the Bengals were the only team that saw that?

    TBH I tend to look at the draft in a way that if you hit on a later round player, while lucky and good it is a failure of the scouting/drafting department because if each player before isn't that good, then they should have drafted the person earlier.

    To answer your question, if Hurts went #1 and became a Hall of Fame player, that would be the best way to acquire that player. If they pick Hurts with the second round pick and a player before and Hurts became a Hall of Fame player then I see that as "getting lucky." Because you should have drafted him #1 as he is the best player.

    IMO, the Seahawks got lucky and should have drafted Russell Wilson with their first round pick. I don't see that as a success.

    It is like if someone is doing the stock market and becomes rich on a penny stock that just happens to blow up. They are not a good investor, they just got lucky.
     
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  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Like I said I dont necessarily think you're wrong. I think it's a valid way to look at it.

    I just believe in trying to gain advantage by maximizing the value of each acquisition.

    I do agree late round players are a crap shoot and tend to be lucky, but I guess my cutoff for that would be more like after the 3rd round.
     
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  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I believe that as well. However, I see maximizing the value of each acquisition is based on what the player actually does.

    If Austin Jackson becomes a Hall of Fame player, how do we know that the Dolphins staff is the only team that saw that potential from 19 to 25?

    Once a player is selected, we do not know what exactly is the maximum value of each acquisition, we can only speculate. Three years down the road, none of us care. People always say that they look like a genius for picking the player where they did.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I would give them an A- as well, simply because they got a franchise quarterback at #5 overall, when that player should've been selected no later than #2 overall. That's how important the quarterback position is, and how difficult it is to get one of Tua's stature at #5 overall.
     
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  21. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    You just made up that quote and attributed it to me. That is not what I said. Here is my actual quote and grade from earlier in this thread:

    "1c. Noah Igbinoghene, another reach. I dont think he is better than Fulton for example, and I would have drafted a different position with this pick, or better yet moved up a bit to get Ruiz. Noah is a slot corner, not the position you should be drafting first round. Grade C+."

    What dan and the other homers here do is grade the picks on a massive curve and put the most positive spin they can on it while going around ****ing on anybody who thinks it was a bad pick. They act as if they are spin doctors on the dolphins payroll.

    I hope every pick works out and I am wrong. I have been a diehard dolphins fan since I was a kid, the only time I ever shed tears for a sporting event was when the dolphins lost the '94 playoff game in the last minute against the chargers.

    But we have been through too many terrible drafts and losing seasons to not be sceptical and critical of things. I will not grade them on a curve, I am not going to spin it into a positive if I don't really like the pick.

    I give my honest assessment, and it is NOT always negative. I liked 4 of the picks we made in this draft and was neutral on a couple of others.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
  22. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    The term "like" before the quote specifically means that you didn't say those exact words.
     
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  23. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah well it is not anywhere near "like" what I actually wrote.
     
  24. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I used to tell my kids all the time to surround themselves with like-minded friends, so they don't fall in with the wrong crowd. I hope Davis's new surroundings (Flores, those in the DT room, etc) will help him get back on track so that he reaches his full potential.
     
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  25. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Yes it is. You specifically challenged people to find mock drafts where he was in the first round.
     
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  26. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    That was in the main draft thread, in the heat of the moment right after the pick. I had not seen any mock drafts with him in the first round, only a few analysts with maybe some inside info had him as a potential 1st rounder.

    My actual grade for the pick is what I quoted. If you are going to quote Dan's grade then you should compare it to my actual grade, not a made up quote.
     
  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    And I was just talking about how I felt I wanted to respond to one and why I wouldn't respond to the other.
     
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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Not if he pans out. Someone on here has been arguing that if you believe in a player, you take him, don't worry about position in the draft. I mean, you don't take a kicker in the first who you could have had in the 5th. But look at Wilson. Every team passed on him like 3 times...but in reality his performance and production says he should have gone top of the first.

    Had he gone there, people would have said he was a reach. But if you thought he was the best QB in that draft, you take him in the first.
     
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  29. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    It's about maximizing value. I mean the concept of reaching is as old as drafting. I don't think you can rationalize that it is now irrelevant because the dolphins seemed to reach on some picks.
     
  30. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I don't think it was ever relevant. It is only something that fans talk about. It has nothing to do with being a Dolphin fan or not.
     
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  31. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Wilson didnt go in the first though. Sure he should have, but let's play a hypothetical.

    If you and only you had hindsight, noone else drafting does, and you know Wilson will be available with your 3rd rounder before the Seahawks take him, would you take him in the first?

    I wouldnt, because I know I could get 2 players PLUS the guy I covet with hindsight.

    The actual draft is sort of like this but without the use of hindsight and some risk taking.

    In my situation for example, if the Bengals did value Hurts as the best QB I doubt they take him #1. The reality is they would most likely trade down.
     
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  32. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    That is the problem with this valuation idea. You have to use hindsight.

    Right now in hindsight drafting Curtis Weaver before the 6th round would have been over drafting. However, before the draft getting him in the third round, everyone would say that is a great value.

    Same with Josh Jones. Drafting him at 56 would have been over drafting, however, most people think he would have been a good value at 56.

    We only know in hindsight.

    We also only know in the future if that is the case. If Austin Jackson becomes a great left tackle, Miami were smart to draft him. No one is going to say, "Well Miami could have had him at 26."

    How do I know? Because every time we look at the draft three years ago, we don't talk about reaching based on where people are. We talk about how well they did by how well players do.

    Reaching and valuation only come up around the draft that it happens.
     
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  33. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Also when people do draft redos a few years later, the valuation of that year is not even considered. Russell Wilson isn't a second round pick, he is generally put as the first pick of that draft. If not first, he is top 3.
     
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  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I understand he didn't go in the first. He didn't go in the second. 74 picks happened in the third, before he was taken. So, every team had the wrong evaluation on him, and undervalued him.

    Of course, now you start seeing shorter or mobile QBs valued higher because of Wilson.
     
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  35. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I am all about targeting players who fit your prospect profile and team vision. I don't know how they rate guys, but I think Flores is looking for those with a certain attitude. On paper, one guy might be slightly better than the next. However, Flores might actually prefer the next guy down because the player might have the attitude he wants, such as being a team-first guy instead of a me-first guy.
     
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  36. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I agree with your feelings on Wilson himself.

    My point in all of this is just that I do think reaching exists. I dont necessarily think anyone we took was a big reach, so in the end it doesnt really matter. The closest to a reach IMO would be corner who's name o havent committed to spelling memory yet LOL and even he was only by a few slots at best so I cant consider that a huge reach either.

    To me a reach is the example I used. EJ Manuel. Very little about him said he would even be a quality starter let alone franchise QB, but because the draft was weak a team reached above his value to draft him earlier. Any team taking him in the first would have been reaching IMO
     
  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    If EJ Manuel worked out, then all the talk now would be how Buffalo was a genius for selecting him where they did.

    In the future in this draft, all players who don't work out will be reaches.
     
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  38. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    He didnt work out though and was never going to. You're throwing out all pre-draft analysis by taking that viewpoint to this topic, which I can't do.

    Though this is starting to become almost a philosophical debate.

    I could argue that by being a reach in the future he was a reach in the moment, it was only revealed for everyone later. Some already projected it though, which would mean they were right about him being a reach.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
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  39. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I do because it is all hearsay and BS. Mock drafts are a waste of our time. Predraft analysis is just fun and mostly pure BS. All that matters are results. At least that is how I have come to deal with the draft in my over 20 years of being a fan of the entire draft process.

    Aaron Curry was the "safest" pick in the draft when the Seahawks drafted him at #3. Turns out, he was a huge reach and should have not been drafted. All pre draft analysis was wrong about the player.
     
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  40. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I agree that pre-draft analysis is flawed, but in this case we are talking more about how that pre-draft analysis sets up the board for the draft itself, not the end result of the player based on pre-draft analysis.

    Anyway I kind of just had my own personal realization that I believe a player can be a reach and still end up a good pick.

    Reach just refers to whether or not its probable, not guaranteed because that is impossible, but probable based on all information that a player would or should be available at a later slot.

    You can take a player before their anticipated slot and have them turn out well. I dont think its exclusively that if a player is good you didnt reach though.

    I agree though that in the end results matter, but by that logic alone we could draft anyone anywhere and it's fine. That's the part I cant agree with.
     
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