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Thoughts on Day 1 and 2 overall???

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by my 2 cents, Apr 25, 2020.

  1. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    What are your personal thoughts on the draft to this point?.

    This is obviously the most impactful part of the draft and IMHO the keys are pics 20-75 from a quality perspective:

    My personal thoughts are I like to really like the first four picks, hate the 5th pick and a bit cold on the 6th pick.
    1.Tua: a need and high ceiling well documented and I like the gamble.
    2.Jackson: 20 year old high ceiling guy that might need a year but his floor is not as low as people think IMHO. Likely a bit overdrafted this year but at 21 or 22 he is a top 10 type pick IMHO. given the need at the position I am warm on this pick.
    3 Noah vowels: Really like this pick and I had him as CB3. Huge upside and solid slot corner downside. A lot of room to grow and if he plays the position another two years he is a top 15 pick. Best football; is ahead of him and he is pretty damn good right now. Forget the position he was a solid slot if not undervalued based on his upside.
    4. Robert Hunt: Love this pick at 39. Correct slot and the player fits. I personally think he is a tackle. He has enough feet and hands to play outside IMHO and will absolutely move people off the ball on his nose. I think he is plug and play and a perfect type player to combine with a one year high upside developmental guard. If you have a higher upside RT drop in your lap anytime he can drop down to guard and find the second level.....between he and Noah Vowels as far as best value pick IMHO.
    5. Raekwon Davis: Hate this pick...not just ehhh. but one of the most overrated players in this draft. If it were an athletic ability contest he is a top 10 pick, big strong, agile and gives effort...not a bad kid, just cant find the ball and gets turned surprisingly easy when he is asked to hold ground. One trick pony,... attack upfield and teams are going to run under him all day, just not a very instinctive or aware player...slotted about where everyone said, but just not a fan of this player...or the slot, at all. Why draft a one trick one down player at this slot....???????? No value here.
    6. Brandon Jones.......slotted about where he should have been. Great effort guy but not as versatile as some might see initially. He needs space and if he gets isolated then you have trouble. Gets fooled on vertical combo routes, especially when in man over coverage but solid in the box and in man under he will get physical, he will help and deliver a blow. I personally think he needs pass rush help as I am not sold on his long speed and if plays extend he tends to lose vertically and give up big plays....a little cold on this pick as the player not the slot. Slot was around where most thought.

    Lots of picks on day three and some really good players and fits left, and a couple dice rolls....
     
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  2. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

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    Team was stripped clean... I see them building the trenches and down the middle.
     
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  3. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I hope Hunt can displace Davis at RT. Not trying to get us off-topic, but can Davis cut it as RG? I am not really feeling it.

    Also, I can see the concern about Jones. It does seem a little high. Kind of scratching my head on that one, and wonder what they know that everybody else who has evaluated him doesn't.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
  4. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I didn't like the last two picks at all, but guys get hurt, and depth is never a bad thing. It's clear that aside from the quarterback position, the interior positions are probably the most important in the game. Flores/Grier clearly want to solidify the trenches and as boring and annoying as it is to hear people hammer that narrative into the ground, it is absolutely true.
     
  5. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    Personally I think Davis is better as a guard...not gonna constantly hit the second level but that is not what Chan Gailey does...

     
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  6. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    Jones fits their scheme...his issues are when plays extend and his lack of play speed gets exposed at the top of the route. That is about where he should have gone...he can play but you need to cover him up a little. Good part is he is a solid tackler as is Noah Vowels.

     
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  7. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Cool! Thanks! I read that he was projected to go on day 3. That's the problem with draft guides. If someone puts too much stock in them, they will almost always come away disappointed either on draft day or after a few years when the guy they raved about, busts. That's why I am just trying to go with the flow. LOL
     
  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'd say my overall grade would be a C+

    My favorite two picks are Jackson and Davis. I think long term they will be solid starters at the least.

    Dont mind the corner we took, just dont agree with the use of early resources on a corner now.

    I'm fine with Hunt and Jones. Not thrilled but not upset.
     
  9. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    I know some people, played the game and still talk to people that either still evaluate, or did back in the day ..... a lot of what you hear in media is BS, some of these "experts" (even those here in club) have an agenda and I am just a guy and although I am no expert I know what these guys look for even though they still lie to me although I am not as actively connected as I used to be...... for example one poster here, I cannot remember who, is very pro Denzel Mims....we can debate but IMHO the tape clearly shows a guy that is straight line, high points the ball and plays vertical away from the LOS and I know these guys look at different stuff than a "normal fan" values. Mims is productive and his stats are nice, his one trick is a really good trick. It is easy to get "fooled" as a fan view not an evaluator view.

    These guys will look at the tape and then see if the numbers confirm or refute what they see......I "stole" something a couple teams use and now call it my own lol, ......so they look at a Denzel Mims tape and see straight line, they see a fast 40 so they go confirm he has really good straight line speed...then they look at his shuttle...he actually has a negative ratio in his 40 over 20 shuttle which is very unusual for a top end 4.4 guy , and actually two guys had negative ratios this year at the top (Mims was .98) and then they compared to guys like Duverny (1.06), Pittman (1.09), Hightower (1.05), but both Juedy and Mims had negative ratios which means they test as straight line guys.....you go back to the tape and Juedy does not play straight line and Mims does...so they end up slotted in mid 1 and low 2 for Mims....they went exactly where I suspected they would.

    In the end the tape is confirmed, its no surprise, and Juedy slides down to 15 behind Ruggs and Mims was never going to go in R1 (although some fans thought so on the surface) because he measures how he plays, but he has outstanding straight line speed....his ratios if he ran a 4.45 would have knocked him down to the third based on how he plays on tape not what he produces which is what us "fans" typically evaluate a guy on but he hit that magic sub 4.4 number..
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
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  10. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    Curious, what do you like about Davis other than he has the body of bronze statue?

     
  11. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Honestly I think he has bust potential as well. I think DT is a position you can get results at by just generally being a bully to others.

    I'm hoping with some motivation he can become a wall in the middle on run downs and near the goal line. Its not that I think hes great necessarily, butni think he can fill a role well.
     
  12. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    All the reports are that he is a good country Mississippi kid that gives great effort...but all that said it does not help him find the ball.......now a new rule putting a bell on the ball and he is All Pro......

    he is like a fastball pitcher, he only knows one speed...full out forward ....while guys run by him or under him.............

     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Is it me or did it appear that Flores was in love with his stack and shed ability just after the pick was made?
     
  14. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I'm happy with the draft do far. Sure there are guys I would have liked to get but it's always that way. I've been advocating building the lines on both sides of the ball for years. And yeah they've put some resources there but the interior line has been neglected for the most part, guard in particular. It seems they are Finally getting serious about it.
    The secondary has gotten some help too. Brandon Jones is a guy I'm a little unsure of but since the secondary is Flores specialty I'm going to defer to him. If it all comes together we are going to be tough to throw on! I'd like some more help at LB and we need more D linemen for depth but again , the right direction.

    I'm happy with our receiver room as is and our TE's as well. For this year. I still would like another RB and I'm sure they will pick up at least one.

    If we get the lines sorted this year we will be in prime position for shiny things next year. But for now, I want football players. Big nasty linemen on both sides with mean streaks a mile wide.
     
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  15. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    If he was I sure don't see it in his game. To me he is a gap penetrator that has a long way to go to be a "clogger". His size you do have to account for though...I dont see it as a totally wasted pick but I don't see it in the player or the slot. They obviously see something an amateur on the Internet like me does not see so I guess in the end we have to defer to them but he better be special drafting a one down DT at that spot with so many needs....

     
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  16. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    Here is a clip of one guy I personally think is a big sleeper for late in the draft...you still have some high upside backs and in particular DeeJay Dallas as someone pointed out is a perfect fit to protect Tua and is still developing rb instincts...but here is a kid that got overshadowed that I really like as a PFA or late round pick...Brian Herrien from UGa.



     
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  17. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Overall I am not very happy with the draft. There is not one pick where I can say we knocked it out of the park. Reached on most guys we got and did not work any trades to snatch some key players that went just before us.

    1a Tua: I get the pick, he is projected as a franchise QB and we badly need one. However his injury history is too risky for my tastes and I also think he is a bit overrated as a result of playing on an all star team his entire college career. I personally would have preferred we trade down for more picks and value, or stayed put and picked LB Simmons or OT Wills then gotten our QB with Love at 1c or Eason on day 2. Grade B-.

    1b. Jackson, I think it is a slight reach, and that is one of my main gripes with the draft, most of the guys we picked were reaches. Austin has good upside, but I think we could have gotten him at #26. Should have made a play for some of the top tier tackles that went before. Grade B-.

    1c. Noah Igbinoghene, another reach. I dont think he is better than Fulton for example, and I would have drafted a different position with this pick, or better yet moved up a bit to get Ruiz. Noah is a slot corner, not the position you should be drafting first round. Grade C+.

    Day 2.
    2a. Hunt, good pick. I like it, not much of a reach. Solid powerful guard who can also move and play tackle if needed. Building the trenches. I'm happy with the pick. Grade A-

    2b. Davis I think a bit of a reach for a one dimensional player, would have preferred DT Jordan Elliot or Gallimore at this spot. Davis's floor is gap plugger with good anchor who can push the pocket a bit. Grade C+.

    3 (#70). Dont like this pick at all. Another reach for a guy projected to go on day 3, is coming off an injury, did not test, and just does nothing exceptionally well. His tape is very underwhelming, sure he played all over the secondary, but he did not excell at any one position. He looks more like a special teams guy which is not what I want from 3rd round pick. Nothing about the guy impresses me other than he seems to be a hard worker and likes to study film. There were many better players on the board at this point. This looks like a panic pick cuz they needed a safety and the jets got Ashtyn Davis a few slots before, but even then I think there were even better safeties available like Utah's Blackmon or Clemson's Tanner Muse. Just a head scratching pick overall. Grade D.

    Overall draft Grade so far: C+.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
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  18. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Although in the main thread I tried to get into Grier's headspace on not trading up and using that bounty, it is interesting that they let a lot of what we see as good players slip by at important positions without tapping into that late round stash. I will be interested to see if they try to shift some of our day 3 picks today into ammo for next year, or if we try and move up or target specific players.

    As for the guys we drafted, I am on board. They may not be the flashiest or most currently complete guys, but they have the ability to play now while still having a ceiling that they work toward. It's a risk, and some people don't like that, I get it. However, I like that we are being aggressive in taking players who have elite ability. Flores can't personally coach each and every player to success, but if he has installed the right system, then like New England, it's all about plugging in FITS and letting them blossom.

    If it doesn't work, then we aren't really worse off than we were before. Let's go for it. I like what we are doing.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I have to keep reminding myself that we have five more picks in the next two rounds- that's likely where we'll start to see the roster shape out with a bunch of value picks that complete the picture. I'm not thrilled with the 2nd/3rd round picks so far but this is a body of work, so I'll reserve judgement for now and see what happens in the fall.

    The big part of this scenario is that we landed Tua and we're actively improving the offensive line- love the overall direction and hoping these secondary picks pan out.
     
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  20. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    From what I read from the experts of what Miami is looking for with DE's a guy who is good at moving forward and staying in his lane is exactly what they want.
     
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  21. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I liked the Tua pick. I am okay with the CB at the end of the first round and Davis the DE. The Texas DB is okay. I don't like the offensive linemen we picked and I don't like that we didn't try to trade up into some of the talent we let get away.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I would've much rather packaged picks to move up and get players who had fallen.

    Moving up and getting Jerry Jeudy.

    Taking Austin Jackson at #26.

    Taking Jonathan Taylor at #39 and moving up from #56 to get Hunt later in the second.

    Now you have Tua, Jeudy, Taylor, Jackson, and Hunt. How does that look. Forget about Davis and Jones and the corner whose name is 30 letters long.

    You come away with loads of college talent and impact players, as well as a focus on the offensive line. As it is we have a watered down draft with just a lot of hope in it, rather than track records of solid performance.
     
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  23. SF_Dolphins_Fan

    SF_Dolphins_Fan Member

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    For every NFL draft I like to wait a year before commenting on whether this or that pick was a good one.
     
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  24. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Why? It's a message board, you don't get/lose points for being right or wrong.

    Giving your opinion on things is what forums are supposed to be about.

    If you like watching film on players like me it's a fun way to discuss what you see or don't see on each player.
     
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  25. SF_Dolphins_Fan

    SF_Dolphins_Fan Member

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    I guess "my opinion" is that it's nearly impossible for me to know which player drafted out of college will have a productive NFL career.
    I just think it is more sensible to evaluate/analyze a draft a year or two after its happened. The skill level of college rosters is so much less than NFL rosters that (until draftees actually play NFL games) nobody knows how they will perform.
     
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  26. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough, but it's not about "knowing" for me. It's about giving my opinion on different players coming out of college, not wether I think that opinion turns out to be right or wrong .
     
  27. SF_Dolphins_Fan

    SF_Dolphins_Fan Member

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    Yes, I do understand where you're coming from, and it's certainly popular for t.v. broadcasters and fans to discuss the merits of this or that draft pick as it happens. I guess my nature is to avoid offering opinions unless I have good , accurate knowledge of the subject.
    Regarding the NFL I am consistently surprised at how ineffective teams are at using the draft to acquire long term productive players.
    For example, this recently completely draft will ultimately reveal several first round "busts" and several late round "superstar players".
    Considering the human and financial resources the NFL teams have their disposal, it is amazing to me how many "draft mistakes" that most NFL teams seem to make.
     
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  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont need a DT to find the ball all the time. I need a DT who can occupy blockers and create penetration on run downs for the LBs to clean up.

    That said, like I said he needs motivation not because he is a bad kid but in order to improve the areas he can to be a consistent player.
     
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  29. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    It will be interesting to see how Davis responds now that football will be a full-time job.
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    In all honestly, your opinions aren't valid...because you're not an NFL scout working for a GM who's explained exactly what he's looking for. Neither am I, of course, and what we might like/dislike has nothing to do with the front office's overall vision for this football team. For instance, I have said publicly a dozen times DON'T PICK TUA, yet I also said that he was a virtual lock at #5. That's the difference between my opinion and the front office's opinion- they're the ones putting the pieces together and seeing how it will all fit.

    You and I- we're picking names in a vacuum....hey, this kid is fast and agile, we should definitely pick him! Yet teams are looking at 100 things we wouldn't even think about, which is why some players get drafted way earlier than expected and why some don't get drafted at all. Our opinions on the draft are like comparing colors...I like purple while you like green...who's right? There is no answer.

    Folks who say they want to pass judgement after a year are taking the smart approach because then we can talk about actual performance in the NFL....everything before that is pointless. All those draft gurus out there giving us grades are completely clueless right now since they're guessing just as much as we are. Because even if they know college players 100x better than us, they still can't understand what our coaches value and how each pick fits a larger scheme.
     
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  31. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I agree we don't know exactly what they are thinking, but whether we "know" everything or not should not discourage us from giving opinions on players and picks. Film, testing numbers, public interviews etc... are publicly available for fans and analysts to see and dissect if they want to, and to discuss it on public forums like this as well if they want to.

    It's a fun exercise, yeah my interpretation might me misinformed, have incomplete information or be completely wrong, but that doesn't mean I or anyone else should shut up and not have any opinions about the players and picks. Who cares if it turns out to be right or wrong? That's not the point.

    It's a message forum to discuss opinions. If you are going to discourage any sort of critical discussion of picks or players then what is the point of having this forum anyway?
     
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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm not discouraging discussions at all- but I am discouraging judgement since that's 100% pointless. For instance, we had someone say fire Grier over this draft....that's a ridiculous overreaction based on absolutely nothing but ignorance.

    Drafting is the 1st step in a process....developing those players is far more important and where the magic happens. We can debate names all day long but it all comes down to what ultimately happens on the field over the next few years.
     
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  33. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I doubt Grier is going to get fired because someone on a message forum suggested it. If Grier gets fired it will be because the team and the players he picks don't end up performing on the field.

    If whoever said that in this forum thinks that, he has a right to say it. It is his opinion. You or I don't have to agree with it at this point, everyone can make up their own mind about it, but we shouldn't discourage people from saying what they think as long as we are not insulting each other.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2020
  34. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Not a valid argument, since NFL scouts and GMs are so frequently wrong. An opinion by a rando on a message board has, on average, as much chance of being right as the average NFL team in the draft.
     
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  35. SF_Dolphins_Fan

    SF_Dolphins_Fan Member

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    I question the NFL GM's who say "we don't draft for a particular position, we're taking the best player available (BPA)".
    What does that even mean ?
     
  36. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    That means the guy was higher on their draft board, but those are incredibly subjective. GMs and scouts and coaches base that on things like their assumptions about character and work ethic and upside, but they're frequently misled about things like that. Players are coached by their agents in what to say and how to say it. IMHO, the only thing you can really count on when looking at a prospective draft pick is how they performed in college against quality opponents. If they didn't work hard in college, they won't work hard in the NFL. If they took plays off in college, they'll take plays off in the NFL. If they got into trouble in college, they'll get into trouble in the NFL.
    There are exceptions, but not enough to base your draft strategy on them.
     
  37. SF_Dolphins_Fan

    SF_Dolphins_Fan Member

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    Hold the phone please, and stop right there. Your comment here about "overall vision for the football team" is something I question.
    The late , great Bill Walsh was sensational at using the draft to assemble an effective roster of players. He absolutely chose players based on how he expected that they would perform within his style of playing offense and defense.
    These days it seems most NFL GM's/coaches don't have a well defined system/vision and as such their draft selection criteria is not especially refined or purposeful.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    There's really no way to reply to a response that generic and that far from the truth. Every GM has a strategy for every draft...they spend months preparing with their staff to get the best possible fits for their team. Some are obviously better than others, but nobody is walking into draft day just guessing- each has a refined plan.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
  39. Grippa

    Grippa Member

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    [/QUOTE]
    Only thing Im just going to agree with
    I see your frustration and it’s ok Big guy
    I agree too I wanted Neville Gallimore

    The rest are Meh / some of these guys might end being good freaking Depth guys In A year or 2 .

    Just keep your negativity from Tua lol
    We know all about the injuries already .. that goes for Everyone in here .
     
  40. danmarino

    danmarino George Floyd was murdered Club Member

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    Good write up. Just to touch on one player, Davis, I don't "hate" the pick. I think his problem is he needs motivation. His first year playing in Alabama he was a monster. He dropped off in production due to, IMO, relying more on athletic skill than any mental preparation. If Flores can reach this kid he has the ability to be an All-Pro. Hopefully that happens, and they think they can reach him...I'm concerned, but don't hate the pick.
     
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