Before his suspension, NFLDraftScout ranked him as a top 40 player. I think they are as accurate as anyone when it comes to judging and ranking the college players.
im talking about something very specific, as in how does he make you feel after watching that interview, how can one disagree with me if they haven't done that, unless of course the book is closed, which is something I specifically asked to reopen, just for this thread?
This isn't the draft for Ireland to roll the dice on someone with that amount of baggage. Maybe a 7th rd pick tops if he does.
Could Antoine, Javier, or grimes, play free safety and attack the ball from the middle of the field, do they have the ball skills of this kid when it's in the air, blitzing skills, punt returner skillset?, I think he has a different skillset then those players mentioned.
If we're talking about safety then again you go to size. Safety is the last line of defense. You need size there. If he's small like that you need to be Bob Sanders. Is he that? No. Not even close. Shamarko Thomas is close to that, extremely well muscled for his height at like 214 lbs, stong as an ox. Mathieu? 4 bench reps.
I would need to have greater upside than a nickel CB and less risk for me than a 3rd round pick. If he were an UDFA, I'd take a shot, but I wouldn't waste a draft pick.
I believe so, he played in the best conference in football against NFL caliber talent for two years, fresh and soph years, statistically speaking he was off the charts productive..I didn't even take into account his stats when I evaluated him.. 140 tackles 16 for loss. 4tds 4 int's 6 sacks 11 forced fumbles 6 fumble recoveries. 17 yard punt return average. My excitement for this player is because I do understand what a lack of technique he played with in college, yet I also feel like I know how his athleticism could fix that, and how it would look as a final product, so if you take that raw talent and instincts and teach that talent proper technique I think a team would be estatic with dropping a third round pick on him.
From a talent perspective alone, he is a mid 2nd rounder. The big question is whether teams believe his off field issues are behind him. DJ makes a good case IMO. I'd use our last 3rd rounder on him based on what we know today. Then again, I'm one of those who think Tavon Austin is worth the 12th overall pick. So don't listen to me.
He will get his chance somewhere. Then he will have his chance to prove the doubters wrong. Personally, I believe in giving people a second chance... but only when I beleive they will change, and in this case if it makes sense from a talent level versus where I draft him standpoint. There are other options as high as the tird round. Someone will roll the dice on him in the 5th I bet.
But the expectation when the pick was made wasn't that he would just be a nickel. The error in that pick was in the evaluation. They took a zone CB and expected him to fit in a press system. The question here is where you should take a player that is limited to the nickel CB (I'm basing that off of DJ's initial post). If you believe that he's not as limited then his upside is higher and you factor that in to your valuation.
I doubt I would use a 3rd round pick on any player at any position if I didn't believe that he was reliable enough to be counted on to show up. Personally, I believe that people can change, but I also know that they rarely do. All the "I had a hard life" stuff is pretty much irrelevant to me. I want to see something that indicates to me that they have changed. And saying he's going to hire somebody to help him wouldn't do it. I would have thought that getting suspended and then getting kicked off the team would have spurred him to change and it didn't. I don't really like the odds of him suddenly changing when he has a lot more money and more time on his hands.
That is such a good point, how the NFL sort of works is "well Bob, you like the player, if we draft him and he screws up you know you are getting fired, do you still want us to draft him"? From a roster pov, look at it this way, if he can cover the slot, and return kicks and punts, you basically are getting a cheap starter quality player who does a couple of jobs for cheap. The league being the league, it will take either a brand new HC who lots of leeway, or a established HC who is known to handle guys like him? That said, I'd say Philly and Pitt would definetely be interested, Chip Kelly can do whatever the hell he wants, and Tomlin may as well be "Coach for as long as he wants it" category as well.
Actually it's exponential with each additonal second chance.. Like 2 to the pwoer of 2 to the power of two etc. It's his second to the 4th power chance.
the reps for a nickel corner are very high, so I'm taking into account rep count, also what about the reps at safety in situations, punt returner, more reps, on top of that, the value on turnovers and ball skills to a team in desperation of them, his stats sure are third round worthy, and of course I believe he can be special in those roles, not just a starter.. My main point is the kid just looks like he's truly gonna turn his life around from what he says and how he acts, I make that assessment just like I do any player that has red flags, every front office has to do the same at some point with players they fall in love with, I think he shows enough for me to risk a pick.
hmm, anyone else recall that DE from an SEC school 3-4 yrs ago? Carolina took him, think his name was Evans? He was even flakier than Mattheu, worked out fine. Reality is, none of these players actions once drafted can be predicted, who saw that KC player killing himself in front of the coaching staff? Did he not mention that in his pre draft interviews?
I visit prisons regular (for one of my jobs) and I've seen hundreds of guys who act and say similar things about turning their life around. While I'm sure that there must be some who have had as many chances as he has, not turned their life around and then finally eventually succeeded, I really haven't seen it. Hopefully on one his chances he'll figure it out, but I'd have to say the odds of this being the chance that turns it around are slim. I think it's far, far more likely that he'll stay on the same path for a bit longer and if he ever does figure it out it will be two or three teams down the line.
That's him, Adamp was really high on him, I liked him, but we were a 3-4 team and he just did not fit what we did. That guy..wow..just wow..massive flake, but like Mathieu, he had the talent and prior to his senior yr he was a Top 5 pick.
Deej, he's raw. The reason he's raw is because he's physically gifted and that's been enough to do well in college and because he got kicked out of a program he could have developed in. Think about that for a second. You've said on more than one occasion, there's hundreds of guys with talent, but what separates them is their drive to be great. To be an adult and take their body and craft seriously. Forget what he said in that interview for a second, and tell me what of his past actions, indicates he's the guy to be a pro. He needs a honest to god baby sitter to keep him out of trouble for crying out loud....how can a person that out of control be counted on to be take the game and his body seriously? What some says is bullsh|t and meaningless, its what their actions are that are important. His actions have shown his character. I'd say anything for a chance at multi million dollar contract, why wouldn't he?
Gamble on him. It's low risk, EXTREMELY high reward. Worst case scenario: He goes back to his old habits, gets cut. We waste a 3rd/4th round pick. Oh well. Best case scenario: We a land a star. A playmaker. Why not?
Because we could miss out on a genuine talent that isn't a head case. Besides, a 3rd round pick and contract is not low risk.
If his upside is high, if you believe that, then you roll the dice over a "safer" prospect. There's not a great chance the other guy is a whole lot better than Mathieu. The chances are slightly over 50%, which isn't saying much. I'm not advocating for him, as I've yet to take a stance on him, but I think a valid case can be made for drafting him in the Top 75 selections if you think he's a high upside player. Now, whether he is or isn't is something that you're going to have to convince yourself on. But statistically speaking, there's not a great chance the other player you select is a whole lot better, if at all.
Yep, the difference is he played poorly as a senior and was nutty as a payday bar, Mathieu didn't play as a senior and likes weed. So is he Clarrett or is he Hardy? If his problem is weed, and he is not crazy, then I'd roll the dice but not over value him, he's basically a smallish Cb with a poor speed/size ratio who played on a really good LSU defense in 2011 and has not played since.
It's going against what I believe in in terms of work ethics, but all red flags have different meanings and consequences, smoking and selling pot in college is different than other red flags...like I said before, are we dealing with a bad person with a bad heart, no love for the game, or are we dealing with a good kid who made mistakes and took his talent for granted, I believe because of what I've seen, he fits into the latter...we're talking bout a chance to get a special player at great value if we can project the character correctly, I think his talent demands we take a very close look at his character, and to me once I do that, I see a kid that has had an awakening, and if it was me, In this rare exception, I would take the risk.. I suppose I could have some blinders on, but if he is rehabilitated, I'm so confident that he's going to be a great player.
Well, Greg Hardy was different. People have this idea that he was trouble when he really wasn't -- he was just unreliable because you didn't know what he was thinking each day. He was just too much of an independent thinker, which turns off coaches. Not to mention, he had a really bad foot injury his final year that he aggravated when he wore cleats too small because he forgot his at school. He wasn't truly trouble though. There's been plenty of personalities like him. Maurice Clarrett was also different than Mathieu and Hardy. Clarrett was an alcoholic that didn't like to work. Although Mathieu had a poor bench press, he worked hard in the process leading up to the combine in other areas, which showed at the workouts. And judging by his production in college, there's a better chance that he worked hard than he didn't because of how he played run fits, pass coverage, etc.
I've said this before but it's not about the marijuana usage and/or distribution of it; it's that you weren't able to count on him to stop using it when he needed to. There's plenty of NFL players that are users of marijuana -- I don't know that for fact but I'd assume that there are because that's just the culture -- and they know how and when to beat the system. Mathieu either didn't know or didn't care or both -- and that's the problem.
There's no harm in drafting a potential elite talent/headcase from the 3rd on. Better than some converted TE from North Dakota State Polytechnic.
strictly based on talent, he's the Russell Wilson for defense in the sense where size will not affect his play making abiltiy, like Wilson , he will be able to athletically get himself into positions to make plays..."The natural" for lack of a better term, everything comes easy for him, that's why imo he didn't use proper technique in college.. What did we see at the combine, when he was focused, and he was, there was no one else with that kind of fluidity and ball skills, his technique in all drills was fantastic.
Ever notice how the majority of NFLers go overseas for a month or two after the season? Hmm, hard to request a urine sample when so and so is in Rio..
I'm not concerned about his bench reps. Fred Smoot as I recall, only did 1 rep at 225 at his combine in 2001 and he lasted for 9 years in the league. Starting 129 games. Tyrann showed in all the drills I saw that he was well prepared for that aspect of the combine. DJ makes a very compelling case for him. If it were me doing the picking, I'd target him in the 3rd round.
