I've done this every year when we looked like locks for the post-season, so I figured why not do it this season as well when it looks all but impossible. Right now, our odds stand at around 1% of making the postseason as the #7 seed. Who's ahead of us? The division leaders are: Broncos (West) 11 wins Pats (East) 11 wins Jags (South) 9 wins Steelers (North) 7 wins In the mix (5-7 seeds): Bills (East) 9 wins Chargers (West) 8 wins Texans (South) 8 wins Outside looking in- Colts (South) 8 wins Ravens (North) 6 wins Chiefs (West) 6 wins Us (East) 6 wins Today, we're two games out from playoff contention, meaning we'd need someone from the Bills, Chargers, or Texans...plus the Colts...to lose at least two games while we keep winning. Additionally, we need the Pats to beat the Bills since things get really tough if Buffalo were to win the division. We can't catch the Pats at 11 wins, so that makes us Pats fans from here on out. The same goes for the Broncos. For who we want to lose at all costs, that's the Bills, Chargers, Texans, and Colts. You get the general idea- two of these four teams have to fall. The Ravens and Chiefs aren't our friend either (unless they're playing one of the teams just listed). I won't get any deeper this week because there's not any point- we simply have to keep winning to even have the slimmest of chances. There ya go though, that's what we need!
Unfortunately, the odds are higher that we finish 10-7 and in 9th place than in 7th. We need multiple teams ahead of us to lose games to teams with a far worse record the final month.
Even if nothing else, its a matter of pride to continue to be the team that misses the playoffs despite a winning record the most often. We already hold a sizable lead in that category.
We have a shot at this...A long one, but we have a chance. Chargers, Colts, Chiefs, Ravens all have tough schedules. I've got Pats, Bills, Jags, Texans, Steelers, Broncos as locks to make it. That means we're fighting it out with KC, Baltimore, Colts, Chiefs, and Chargers. KC could win out and get to 10 games. Their toughest opponent with be Denver at Arrowhead. Baltimore is screwed I think. The Colts might lose out now that Daniel Jones is toast, The Chargers seem to fall apart every December yet nobody talks about that. We have to win out, but there's a chance we get in. How crucial are the New England and Carolina losses from earlier now? If only we could have stopped the Chargers on that last drive. I had a feeling those three games would prove to be crushing losses later on. We had those games and gave them away. Now we need to beat Pittsburgh in their house, an offense led by Joe Burrow, a Tampa team fighting for their playoff lives and a dominant Patriots teams. It's not gonna happen, but we can dream.
One thing that could work in our favor is New England being locked into a playoff slot before Week 18. If they're the #2 and nothing they do matters, they'll likely rest guys making the game easier for us.
The Texans still play the Chargers and the Colts, so you might as well say we're Texans fans now. That's the easiest path for us- Texans win out, Chargers and Colts each lose two. Or, flip that and have the Chargers and Colts beat the Texans...but the Colts still have to find two losses somewhere else. I do agree with you that the Colts are in trouble without their QB. They'll lose two and we'll be okay there. Our odds of winning out are almost nil, but to me it's not in the NFL spirit to write the season off until we have to. The only goal, for now, is to beat Pittsburg. Everything else is secondary. If Achane is healthy, I'm honestly not scared of anyone at this point. He can score on any down in this offense with the line producing, and this is the team I've wanted for decades now. It's unfortunate that Tua's not a bigger factor but that's okay...it's not currently our identity and the team has done a very good job adapting. It also leaves Waddle and company wide-freaking-open because teams are so committed to stopping the run...which they just can't stop. It's a beautiful offense and if Tua gets hot in December/January, watch out!
I‘m really positively surprised how McD turned this thing around and since Grier is gone I might even be able to dream again, hopefully we keep this going!
I agree, Pittsburgh is our only opponent for now. Can we beat them? Yes, they aren't exactly consistent in how they play. They seem to overlook teams like ours while playing well against the better teams of the league. They'll beat New England or the Colts (who were the hottest team in the league at the time), and then lose to the Bengals. Either way it doesn't get any more clutch than next Monday when we play them in the snow. I hope we can rewrite the narrative that we can't win in December. Beating them will go a long way towards changing that.
Snow games are power running games, and we know a little bit about that lately. I really, really like our chances.
I did a little research last night and found that we've only ever won two "cold weather" road games in Prime Time in franchise history. Both at the Jets. Once when they were basically tanking. So it absolutely would be totally new territory for the team to get it done.
I could be wrong, but if I ran this right, and someone check me out please… If the Dolphins were to win out and the Chargers and Colts were to lose out, we’d be in the playoffs. And with their remaining schedules, it’s not that far fetched
I thought, that can't be right. So I checked the '72 Dolphins. They won week 12 at Foxboro, week 13 at Yankee Stadium (the Giants), the conference championship at Pittsburg on New Year's Eve, and the Super Bowl at Washington. Maybe those weren't "Prime Time" though or maybe it wasn't super cold in 1972. Marino also did well on the road so I still don't know if you're accurate. It certainly made my brain start jogging though as I thought of ways to prove you wrong. But I have to get back to work so I concede defeat, LOL!
I think that even if the Chargers win tonight, if they both lose out after that AND the Chiefs lose to Denver, we could get in. However, once three other WC contenders get to ten wins, that's it. We're done. And unofficially, if the Chargers win tonight and next week, that will essentially end our chances, though there might be some slim hope of something else happening that I didn't see.
They weren't Prime Time games. And the AFC CG was actually played on an surprisingly warm day in Pittsburgh that year, just 58 degrees. On a related note, the Fins have never won a road playoff game in cold weather period, regardless of the time of day.
You have to able to run the ball on the road in these December/January games. It's been the key to success for as long as I've been watching the games.
Well San Diego won last night against the Eagles (astonishing) so any hopes for the playoffs I believe died with their victory last night. This season has been the odd one. Teams that normally dominate have faltered and teams that have been mediocre have played great. Going to be an interesting post season.
I won't be in Vegas for wild card weekend this year. Hopefully they make it to the next round cause it's a fun atmosphere during the playoffs. Not that I hold any belief they will make it.
