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The top reason it might not matter whether the Dolphins have the No. 1 overall pick in 2020

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Sceeto, Oct 18, 2019.

  1. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article236346308.html

    History knows that the NFL draft’s top pick is nothing more than a chance of landing the best player. It’s a lottery ticket.

    But it doesn’t often become a winning lottery ticket.

    So that quarterback the Dolphins pick next April, presumably with the first overall selection, better be Super Bowl awesome. Except, history says he probably won’t be.

    Look at the actual draft history ...

    Since the dawn of the this century, a span of 20 NFL seasons, no quarterback drafted No. 1 overall has won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him. Only one of the 14 quarterbacks picked No. 1 overall since 2000 has actually won a Super Bowl — Eli Manning.

    But everyone else? No Super Bowl title.

    Consider the list of quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall since 2000:

    2001: Michael Vick by Atlanta.

    2002: David Carr by Houston.

    2003: Carson Palmer by Cincinnati.

    2004: Eli Manning picked by San Diego.

    2005: Alex Smith by San Francisco.

    2007: JaMarcus Russell by Oakland.

    2009: Matthew Stafford by Detroit.

    2010: Sam Bradford by St. Louis.

    2011: Cam Newton by Carolina.

    2012: Andrew Luck by Indianapolis.

    2015: Jameis Winston by Tampa Bay.

    2016: Jared Goff by the Los Angeles Rams.

    2018: Baker Mayfield by Cleveland.

    2019: Kyler Murray by Arizona.

    In 2000 the best QB in the draft turned out to be Tom Brady in the sixth round.

    In 2001 it was Drew Brees in the second round rather than Vick at No. 1 overall.

    In 2004 you can argue Manning was the right choice because he has won two Super Bowls. You know what? Ben Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls and he was picked No. 11 overall. And Roethlisberger has a far superior won-lost record than Manning.

    In 2005, Aaron Rodgers was picked No. 24 overall, or 23 slots after Smith. And we know who turned out better.

    Four quarterbacks, including Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, were picked in the 2012 draft’s first round. But the best quarterback in that draft was Russell Wilson who was selected in the third round


    This is one reason why I want:

    1a Chase Young
    1b 1b Justin Herbert

    Now Herbert would still be a top pick at our 1b slot, but still not #1 overall and Young has a good chance at being a special player. I haven't dug enough into the will be later round QBs yet, but I will. Any input here in that regard will be cool.

     
  2. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I like taking Young there.
     
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  3. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    There are several problems with that analysis.
    1) you need a larger pool of data than what they’re using. That data is available, so drawing arbitrary cutoffs (since 2000) seems to be an attempt to skew the data to fit the prejudices of the author.
    For a more complete reference:
    - there have been 35 QBs selected at number 1 overall going back to 1936. Of those 35 six have won a combined 15 Superbowls.
    - there are 26 modern era QBs in the HoF, 5 of which were selected at number 1 overall.

    2) Just because the odds of any particular QB selected #1 overall turning out to be a HoF caliber player is relatively small (roughly 1 in 7 by my estimate) it is still substantially higher than any othe pick.

    3) The historical data shows that the number 1 overall pick overall, on average, substantially outperforms the number 2 pick overall regardless of position.

    4) The historical re of of situations where there has been a consensus 1a and 1b has been that the 1b generally underperforms the 1a
    2016 Goff - Wentz : so far both are equally good.
    2015 Winston - Mariato : both busts
    2012 Luck - RG3 : both got crushed by injuries but Luck was productive for far longer.
    1999 Couch - McNabb : clear win for McNabb
    1998 P. Manning - Leaf : no need for comment
    1993 Bledsoe - Mirer : clear win for Bledsoe
    1971 Plunkett - A. Manning : Plunkett gets the nod after having his career resurrected by the Raiders and winning 2 Superbowls. In head to head match ups the 1 overall beats the #2 four times, loses once, and pushes twice.

    5) No QB selected at #2 overall has ever won a superbowl.
     
  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    1) I also want Chase Young if we have the chance to draft him. He is clearly the draft's best player, and I am not sold on this year's QB class the way many are.

    2) Judging QBs based on Super Bowl wins is incredibly short sighted and a poor way to go about it.

    3) One of the best Quarterbacks to ever play was drafted number one just before the start of that list - Peyton Manning in 1998. His presence obviously heavily influenced a lot of what happened in the NFL through 2015 while he was playing.

    4) Two of the QBs drafted #1 were on expansion teams - Couch and Carr. They were nearly doomed from the start. I would argue that in the entire 20 years, the only bad pick was Russell.

    Either way, the main point is that you can't force the draft pick. If there is a clear, top of the draft QB available, then its always a good choice to take him. It might work, it might not. Though as I said, its not the only choice.
     
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  5. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    So the logic is that QB's picked #1 overall haven't won a SB in the last 20 years with the exception of Eli Manning well using that logic no DE or pass rushing LB picked in the top 5 has won a SB with the team that drafted him except for Von Miller.

    Hell we had a HOF DE in Jason Taylor and didn't win jack so I guess Chase Young would be a bad pick. Any player drafted in any position can be wasted if you don't put a good roster around them. If Dan Marino got picked #1 overall and didn't win a SB it wasn't because he was picked #1 overall and it wasn't because he wasn't good enough.

    How many of those QB's listed had a legitimate SB caliber roster with the exception of Eli Manning?
     
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  6. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    I think it's absolutely criminal that Kyler Murray hasn't won a super bowl for Arizona after all the hype... :001_rolleyes:
     
  7. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Correlation doesn't equal causation.

    I remember a few years back someone tried to use a list to justify not taking a QB in the first round, and it was just as ridiculous as this.
     
  8. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Same with Baker Mayfield! Browns should have already been to a Super Bowl and should easily win this years trophy.
     
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  9. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I agree, this is beyond pushing an agenda. We need a franchise Quarterback first and foremost above everything else. I'm sure Chase Young is great, but we're drafting Tua with our first pick in April.
     
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  10. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Chase Young is the pick to make.
     
  11. #1 fan

    #1 fan Well-Known Member

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    2000: Courtney Brown - No Super Bowl
    2006: Mario Williams - No Super Bowl
    2008: Jake Long - No Super Bowl
    2013: Eric Fisher - No Super Bowl
    2014: Jadeveon Clowney - No Super Bowl
    2017: Myles Garret - No Super Bowl

    I see a trend
     
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You can't take two different facts, put them together, then claim they also make a fact. For example-

    - I have a cat. I've never been attacked by a rhino. That proves rhinos are scared of house cats.
    - My IQ is 146. I've always worn white socks. You can't be a genius without wearing white socks.
    - I like eating steak. I've never had polio. That proves steak cures polio.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2019
  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Thank God I love steak
     
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  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    The problem with this is that it basically says the #1 is magically cursed. I mean if Jamarcus Russell was picked anywhere else in the draft, would he have performed better? If Russell Wilson was picked at the 1st pick would he have performed worse?

    The problem with any #1 pick failing is the evaluation behind the pick not where they were picked. It is perfectly fine if you don't trust this FO to make the right eval, but all picking first does is guarantee you get the guy you evaluated to be best.

    All this article does is highlight either Armando's flagrant ignorance or flagrant **** stirring. I waffle on that often.
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The only reason it wouldn’t behoove a team to have the first overall pick in the draft is if there is some single pick later in the draft that has been associated with significantly greater drafting success, and there isn’t.
     
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  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Not even then.
     
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  17. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The fact that the #1 pick regularly outperforms the #2 shows that NFL teams are pretty good ar choosing who the best player is given a choice of the 2 best projected players in the draft.

    The fact that #1 and #2 over time statistically outperform all other picks shows that NFL teams are pretty good at identifying the 2 best players in the draft.

    The fact that the performance of draftees statistically over time follows an exponential curve shows that NFL teams are good at correctly identifying talent.

    The fact that any one draft is noisy with lots of random variation shows that while teams are good at identifying talent that other factors affect individual performance, not just athletic ability and college production.

    Random distribution is not even distribution. Just because you flip a coin 5 times in a row and it lands on heads 5 times in a row is not proof that the coin has two heads.
     
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  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If you hire a Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, et al to drive your race car and you show them they’re going to run a 1967 VW Beetle in the Daytona 500, don’t be shocked surprised or angry when you come in last.

    Marino, Kelly, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers and many others all had the fortune of coming to a well established team in which the quarterback was this missing piece. The race car was already there...now it needed a driver.

    I hope I’m wrong. I pray that I’m wrong but based on recent draft history over the last 10-15 years, we’re going to roll the dice and draft a QB, throw darts against the wall on other positions and fail yet again.

    It breaks my heart to say it, but we’ve become the Detroit Lions.
     
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  19. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I think those numbers reinforce why drafting BPA is the best strategy and not reaching for a QB because you need a franchise QB.

    We’re seeing teams like the Saints and 49ers have great success because they built great teams around their QB’s. In the Saints case, they’re winning without their franchise QB.

    The other thought is, will their be a good QB with Pittsburgh’s pick? Then you take the BPA- maybe Chase Young and get much better on D and still get a guy at QB that can be our guy.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Numbers in college don’t always translate to success in the NFL but with that being said, Young does look like a great pick to our anemic defense. We’ve lacked an effective pass rush and in this day and age of the pass happy NFL, you have to get consistent pressure on the QB.

    On the flip side of that coin though, we need to find and keep the next Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain in the worst way.
     
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  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I saw a mock this morning that had the Fins passing on Tagovolia twice in the top ten! Good to see I'm not the only one who isnt sold on his greatness yet.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    With their current quarterback play, which is only mediocre, the 49ers will have to continue their strong pass defense to win in the playoffs the way they are now, when they're likely to face the strongest quarterbacks in the league.

    The Saints don't stand much of a chance in the playoffs the way they're playing now. Their quarterback play has been mediocre and so has their pass defense.

    It's awful tough to get through the playoffs without either 1) an elite QB, or 2) an elite pass defense that shuts down opposing QBs. Obviously the Dolphins have a strong chance this year of being in position to target only one of those. They can't assemble the elite pass defense in only one year.

    Watch how these teams with average QBs (like the 49ers and Saints) play in the playoffs before you determine how important an elite QB is in comparison to other parts of a team.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2019
  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    The 49ers offense is inconsistent, but its not flat out bad. Garopolo has the tendency to throw some really stupid interceptions, but he's still only started 16 games in his whole career now. Their offense was amazing against Cleveland a few weeks ago, maybe the one I've liked the most all season long. The conditions in Washington this past game were just miserable, and few teams would have done well.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The 49ers pass defense has surrendered an opposing passer rating of 64.6, which is second in the league. They're undefeated precisely because their mediocre pass offense is overcome by their stellar pass defense. But that'll have to continue in the playoffs when they're likely to take on the elite QBs in the league, because they're unlikely to suddenly receive stellar quarterback play from their own QB.
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Regardless of QB, you still need a great defense. Remember Marino’s last playoff game against Baltimore? Even having Marino didn’t keep it close...
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's completely a trade-off. The better your offensive passing game is in terms of passer rating, the worse your pass defense can be, and vice-versa. If you have an average offensive passing game, you'd better have one of the best pass defenses in the league. If your offensive passing game is stellar, you can get by with an average pass defense.

    This is why I've said many times that you need either an elite QB with at least an average pass defense, or an elite pass defense with at least an average QB.

    The single blowout that occurred in a Super Bowl in the past 15 years was, not coincidentally, the single time a team had both -- a stellar QB and a stellar pass defense: the 2013-2014 Seahawks. Their offensive passer rating was 102.4, more than 16 points above the league average that year, and their passer rating surrendered on defense was 63.4, more than 22 points below the league average that year.
     
  27. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    You took one part of my post and took it completely out of context. My point was regarding BPA vs reaching for a QB just because you need a franchise QB.

    No franchise QB is going to win it all without a good OL and a top tier defense. Marino is one of the best pure QB’s of all time and couldn’t overcome bad defenses and a non-existent run game.

    This all comes down to building the best team possible and hopefully a franchise QB comes to you. Steelers got theirs in the middle for the first round, Packers in the last 1/3 of the first round, Saints via FA, NE in the 6th round. It doesn’t usually come from the first pick in the draft. If our FO believes that person is there, take them. If not, go Young or whoever is the BPA.
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Seven of the past 15 Super Bowls -- roughly half of them -- have been won by teams with pass defenses not significantly different from average in terms of passer rating surrendered. It can be done without a top-tier defense.

    Five of the past 15 Super Bowls -- a third of them -- have been won by teams with pass offenses not significantly different from average in terms of passer rating. It can also be done without a top-tier quarterback, but it's less likely.

    But now consider the difficulty involved in compiling an elite pass defense and keeping them healthy and under contract, versus the difficulty in acquiring an elite quarterback and keeping him healthy and under contract, and consider that we're talking about only one draft pick. Obviously the elite pass defense can't be acquired with just one pick, but the elite QB can.
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That was Jacksonville. The 62-7 massacre
     
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  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don’t necessarily agree. You need a QB that can play at an elite level, or a defense that has the ability to play at an elite level, not that they are playing at that level enough where they are called elite. Know what I mean?
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that the QBs and defenses that can play at that elite level are also usually the ones that typically play at the level. The ones who don't typically play at that level are unlikely to play there.

    If the guys who don't typically play at that level were in fact likely to play at that level, that's where they'd typically play.

    So you can rest your hopes on having the stars align and being the exception to the rule, but obviously that doesn't do anything good for your probability of winning a Super Bowl.
     

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