The top reason it might not matter whether the Dolphins have the No. 1 overall pick in 2020

I like taking Young there.

There are several problems with that analysis.
1) you need a larger pool of data than what they’re using. That data is available, so drawing arbitrary cutoffs (since 2000) seems to be an attempt to skew the data to fit the prejudices of the author.
For a more complete reference:
- there have been 35 QBs selected at number 1 overall going back to 1936. Of those 35 six have won a combined 15 Superbowls.
- there are 26 modern era QBs in the HoF, 5 of which were selected at number 1 overall.

2) Just because the odds of any particular QB selected #1 overall turning out to be a HoF caliber player is relatively small (roughly 1 in 7 by my estimate) it is still substantially higher than any othe pick.

3) The historical data shows that the number 1 overall pick overall, on average, substantially outperforms the number 2 pick overall regardless of position.

4) The historical re of of situations where there has been a consensus 1a and 1b has been that the 1b generally underperforms the 1a
2016 Goff - Wentz : so far both are equally good.
2015 Winston - Mariato : both busts
2012 Luck - RG3 : both got crushed by injuries but Luck was productive for far longer.
1999 Couch - McNabb : clear win for McNabb
1998 P. Manning - Leaf : no need for comment
1993 Bledsoe - Mirer : clear win for Bledsoe
1971 Plunkett - A. Manning : Plunkett gets the nod after having his career resurrected by the Raiders and winning 2 Superbowls. In head to head match ups the 1 overall beats the #2 four times, loses once, and pushes twice.

5) No QB selected at #2 overall has ever won a superbowl.

1) I also want Chase Young if we have the chance to draft him. He is clearly the draft's best player, and I am not sold on this year's QB class the way many are.

2) Judging QBs based on Super Bowl wins is incredibly short sighted and a poor way to go about it.

3) One of the best Quarterbacks to ever play was drafted number one just before the start of that list - Peyton Manning in 1998. His presence obviously heavily influenced a lot of what happened in the NFL through 2015 while he was playing.

4) Two of the QBs drafted #1 were on expansion teams - Couch and Carr. They were nearly doomed from the start. I would argue that in the entire 20 years, the only bad pick was Russell.

Either way, the main point is that you can't force the draft pick. If there is a clear, top of the draft QB available, then its always a good choice to take him. It might work, it might not. Though as I said, its not the only choice.

So the logic is that QB's picked #1 overall haven't won a SB in the last 20 years with the exception of Eli Manning well using that logic no DE or pass rushing LB picked in the top 5 has won a SB with the team that drafted him except for Von Miller.

Hell we had a HOF DE in Jason Taylor and didn't win jack so I guess Chase Young would be a bad pick. Any player drafted in any position can be wasted if you don't put a good roster around them. If Dan Marino got picked #1 overall and didn't win a SB it wasn't because he was picked #1 overall and it wasn't because he wasn't good enough.

How many of those QB's listed had a legitimate SB caliber roster with the exception of Eli Manning?

I think it's absolutely criminal that Kyler Murray hasn't won a super bowl for Arizona after all the hype... :001_rolleyes:

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

I remember a few years back someone tried to use a list to justify not taking a QB in the first round, and it was just as ridiculous as this.

"Phin McCool wrote:

I think it's absolutely criminal that Kyler Murray hasn't won a super bowl for Arizona after all the hype... :001_rolleyes:

Same with Baker Mayfield! Browns should have already been to a Super Bowl and should easily win this years trophy.

"Silverphin wrote:

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

I remember a few years back someone tried to use a list to justify not taking a QB in the first round, and it was just as ridiculous as this.

I agree, this is beyond pushing an agenda. We need a franchise Quarterback first and foremost above everything else. I'm sure Chase Young is great, but we're drafting Tua with our first pick in April.

Chase Young is the pick to make.

2000: Courtney Brown - No Super Bowl
2006: Mario Williams - No Super Bowl
2008: Jake Long - No Super Bowl
2013: Eric Fisher - No Super Bowl
2014: Jadeveon Clowney - No Super Bowl
2017: Myles Garret - No Super Bowl

I see a trend

You can't take two different facts, put them together, then claim they also make a fact. For example-

- I have a cat. I've never been attacked by a rhino. That proves rhinos are scared of house cats.
- My IQ is 146. I've always worn white socks. You can't be a genius without wearing white socks.
- I like eating steak. I've never had polio. That proves steak cures polio.

"KeyFin wrote:

You can't take two different facts, put them together, then claim they also make a fact. For example-

- I have a cat. I've never been attacked by a rhino. That proves rhinos are scared of house cats.
- My IQ is 146. I've always worn white socks. You can't be a genius without wearing white socks.
- I like eating steak. I've never had polio. That proves steak cures polio.

Thank God I love steak

"Sceeto wrote:

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article236346308.html

History knows that the NFL draft’s top pick is nothing more than a chance of landing the best player. It’s a lottery ticket.

But it doesn’t often become a winning lottery ticket.

So that quarterback the Dolphins pick next April, presumably with the first overall selection, better be Super Bowl awesome. Except, history says he probably won’t be.

Look at the actual draft history ...

Since the dawn of the this century, a span of 20 NFL seasons, no quarterback drafted No. 1 overall has won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him. Only one of the 14 quarterbacks picked No. 1 overall since 2000 has actually won a Super Bowl — Eli Manning.

But everyone else? No Super Bowl title.

Consider the list of quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall since 2000:

2001: Michael Vick by Atlanta.

2002: David Carr by Houston.

2003: Carson Palmer by Cincinnati.

2004: Eli Manning picked by San Diego.

2005: Alex Smith by San Francisco.

2007: JaMarcus Russell by Oakland.

2009: Matthew Stafford by Detroit.

2010: Sam Bradford by St. Louis.

2011: Cam Newton by Carolina.

2012: Andrew Luck by Indianapolis.

2015: Jameis Winston by Tampa Bay.

2016: Jared Goff by the Los Angeles Rams.

2018: Baker Mayfield by Cleveland.

2019: Kyler Murray by Arizona.

In 2000 the best QB in the draft turned out to be Tom Brady in the sixth round.

In 2001 it was Drew Brees in the second round rather than Vick at No. 1 overall.

In 2004 you can argue Manning was the right choice because he has won two Super Bowls. You know what? Ben Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls and he was picked No. 11 overall. And Roethlisberger has a far superior won-lost record than Manning.

In 2005, Aaron Rodgers was picked No. 24 overall, or 23 slots after Smith. And we know who turned out better.

Four quarterbacks, including Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, were picked in the 2012 draft’s first round. But the best quarterback in that draft was Russell Wilson who was selected in the third round


This is one reason why I want:
1a Chase Young
1b 1b Justin Herbert

Now Herbert would still be a top pick at our 1b slot, but still not #1 overall and Young has a good chance at being a special player. I haven't dug enough into the will be later round QBs yet, but I will. Any input here in that regard will be cool.

The problem with this is that it basically says the #1 is magically cursed. I mean if Jamarcus Russell was picked anywhere else in the draft, would he have performed better? If Russell Wilson was picked at the 1st pick would he have performed worse?

The problem with any #1 pick failing is the evaluation behind the pick not where they were picked. It is perfectly fine if you don't trust this FO to make the right eval, but all picking first does is guarantee you get the guy you evaluated to be best.

All this article does is highlight either Armando's flagrant ignorance or flagrant shit stirring. I waffle on that often.

The only reason it wouldn’t behoove a team to have the first overall pick in the draft is if there is some single pick later in the draft that has been associated with significantly greater drafting success, and there isn’t.

"The Guy wrote:

The only reason it wouldn’t behoove a team to have the first overall pick in the draft is if there is some single pick later in the draft that has been associated with significantly greater drafting success, and there isn’t.

Not even then.

The fact that the #1 pick regularly outperforms the #2 shows that NFL teams are pretty good ar choosing who the best player is given a choice of the 2 best projected players in the draft.

The fact that #1 and #2 over time statistically outperform all other picks shows that NFL teams are pretty good at identifying the 2 best players in the draft.

The fact that the performance of draftees statistically over time follows an exponential curve shows that NFL teams are good at correctly identifying talent.

The fact that any one draft is noisy with lots of random variation shows that while teams are good at identifying talent that other factors affect individual performance, not just athletic ability and college production.

Random distribution is not even distribution. Just because you flip a coin 5 times in a row and it lands on heads 5 times in a row is not proof that the coin has two heads.

If you hire a Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, et al to drive your race car and you show them they’re going to run a 1967 VW Beetle in the Daytona 500, don’t be shocked surprised or angry when you come in last.

Marino, Kelly, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers and many others all had the fortune of coming to a well established team in which the quarterback was this missing piece. The race car was already there...now it needed a driver.

I hope I’m wrong. I pray that I’m wrong but based on recent draft history over the last 10-15 years, we’re going to roll the dice and draft a QB, throw darts against the wall on other positions and fail yet again.

It breaks my heart to say it, but we’ve become the Detroit Lions.

I think those numbers reinforce why drafting BPA is the best strategy and not reaching for a QB because you need a franchise QB.

We’re seeing teams like the Saints and 49ers have great success because they built great teams around their QB’s. In the Saints case, they’re winning without their franchise QB.

The other thought is, will their be a good QB with Pittsburgh’s pick? Then you take the BPA- maybe Chase Young and get much better on D and still get a guy at QB that can be our guy.

Numbers in college don’t always translate to success in the NFL but with that being said, Young does look like a great pick to our anemic defense. We’ve lacked an effective pass rush and in this day and age of the pass happy NFL, you have to get consistent pressure on the QB.

On the flip side of that coin though, we need to find and keep the next Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain in the worst way.

I saw a mock this morning that had the Fins passing on Tagovolia twice in the top ten! Good to see I'm not the only one who isnt sold on his greatness yet.

"mlb1399 wrote:

We’re seeing teams like the Saints and 49ers have great success because they built great teams around their QB’s. In the Saints case, they’re winning without their franchise QB.

With their current quarterback play, which is only mediocre, the 49ers will have to continue their strong pass defense to win in the playoffs the way they are now, when they're likely to face the strongest quarterbacks in the league.

The Saints don't stand much of a chance in the playoffs the way they're playing now. Their quarterback play has been mediocre and so has their pass defense.

It's awful tough to get through the playoffs without either 1) an elite QB, or 2) an elite pass defense that shuts down opposing QBs. Obviously the Dolphins have a strong chance this year of being in position to target only one of those. They can't assemble the elite pass defense in only one year.

Watch how these teams with average QBs (like the 49ers and Saints) play in the playoffs before you determine how important an elite QB is in comparison to other parts of a team.

"The Guy wrote:

With their current quarterback play, which is only mediocre, the 49ers will have to continue their strong pass defense to win in the playoffs the way they are now, when they're likely to face the strongest quarterbacks in the league.

The Saints don't stand much of a chance in the playoffs the way they're playing now. Their quarterback play has been mediocre and so has their pass defense.

It's awful tough to get through the playoffs without either 1) an elite QB, or 2) an elite pass defense that shuts down opposing QBs. Obviously the Dolphins have a strong chance this year of drafting one of those. They can't assemble the elite pass defense in only one year.

The 49ers offense is inconsistent, but its not flat out bad. Garopolo has the tendency to throw some really stupid interceptions, but he's still only started 16 games in his whole career now. Their offense was amazing against Cleveland a few weeks ago, maybe the one I've liked the most all season long. The conditions in Washington this past game were just miserable, and few teams would have done well.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

The 49ers offense is inconsistent, but its not flat out bad. Garopolo has the tendency to throw some really stupid interceptions, but he's still only started 16 games in his whole career now. Their offense was amazing against Cleveland a few weeks ago, maybe the one I've liked the most all season long. The conditions in Washington this past game were just miserable, and few teams would have done well.

The 49ers pass defense has surrendered an opposing passer rating of 64.6, which is second in the league. They're undefeated precisely because their mediocre pass offense is overcome by their stellar pass defense. But that'll have to continue in the playoffs when they're likely to take on the elite QBs in the league, because they're unlikely to suddenly receive stellar quarterback play from their own QB.

"The Guy wrote:

The 49ers pass defense has surrendered an opposing passer rating of 64.6, which is second in the league. They're undefeated precisely because their mediocre pass offense is overcome by their stellar pass defense. But that'll have to continue in the playoffs when they're likely to take on the elite QBs in the league, because they're unlikely to suddenly receive stellar quarterback play from their own QB.

Regardless of QB, you still need a great defense. Remember Marino’s last playoff game against Baltimore? Even having Marino didn’t keep it close...