The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill: Part II

No idea FN, that would require a huge knowledge of the Cap numbers across the league and TBH, that particular subjects bores me.

What I suspect is something like 4 yrs for 6 million on avg will be our offer, Hartline is likely to want 8 million per on avg.

Suspect they want Bush to take a paycut down from his 4. whatever million he is making this year.

As for THill:

262 on 449

He'll need a 25 of 32 attempts type of day to hit 60% completions for the year.

 

I guess Luck is wildly inaccurate to with his 46% completion rate in December. He also has a 54% completion rate for the year. Hartline has one great game ( Arizona, where he also fell and it resulted in a pick.)

 

Remains to be seen what Luck does next yr, do know a Qb won't consistently win at that level.

And Carpenter hits the FG and our yr looks entirely different.

 

Well you said that Tannehill was wildly inaccurate but he has better completion numbers that Luck. I am simply asking would you consider Luck an inaccurate qb since you consider Tannehill one?

 

Wwe clearly need a #1 wr we havve plenty #3's

 

By stats, however we do not have a whole lot of Colts games on TV so I've not watched him play outside of the game vs us.

54% completions is not very good, it more than likely means he has hit some big plays or has a solid 4th qtr completion percentage.

 

well let's look at the last game Tannehill had, he has 3 or 4 passes in the breadbasket dropped. That affected his completion percentage. He has one hobbled starter and a bunch of backups.

 

We should not overvalue the contract of Hartline based on what Ireland rolled out there this year..his production isn't an 8 million dollar a year investment..If I had to guess, with the amount of reps and targets Hartline got, his production would fall far short of that dollar per year amount..

 

Hartline .... 8 million per year? Pass

 

And Marshall dropped how many Td passes the yr before from MMoore?

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=nfl&type=receiving&rank=232

As for this year, not a single Dolphin in the top 15 in dropped passes

In fact, we are 7th best in the league at catching the ball:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 

I got about a 5 mill cap on Hartline.

 

.... and what do you make of the fact one of the greatest all-time QBs has 3 sub 75.0 passer ratings in his last 5 games w/o his best weapon on the field? <Gronkowski>

.... and what do you make of the fact Matt Stafford has an 18 point lower QBR (97.2 vs 79.2), 24 fewer TDs, and a 7% lower completion rate this year with Burlesone, Young, Broyles, and Pettigrew all on IR despite completing 10 more passes no less?

{BTW, those are Stafford's #2-5 targets and as a group are better than our top 3 receivers/starting TE}

 

How does that change the fact that the fins dropped 3 or 4 passes last game?

 

For fun, let's make the offense #1 at catching the ball:

(14 drops) and give it to Tannehill:

272 completions on 449 attempts=60.57%

Td's=1 additional

Consider 10 fewer drops is .67 per game, not even 1 per game

This is that sort of 5% stat that just is the difference between winning and losing in the NFL

 

I wouldn't pay Hartline more than $3.5..... perhaps $4.0. But at that price I'd just as soon sign Jennings for a few million more, sign Finley over Fasano, and then draft 2-3 receivers who better fit the offense and who actually make plays with the ball in their hands. I gotta believe Philbin coming from GB and those slew of playmaking receivers cringes every time he sees Hartline do nothing after the catch or inadequately track a ball downfield.

 

By showing that overall Tannehill has benefitted from a Receiving corps that catches the catchable balls this season?

I also suspect overall he has fewer than average of the number of attempts, 449 seems terribly low for a starter of 15 games, which suggests we do not have a good 3rd down conversion rate, or we run the ball more than one would think.

 

.....well then Hartline will be drawing unemployment next year. Either that or some serious inflation needs to occur between now and then.

 

probably both.

 

We need a number 1 wr and a seam TE. Hartline is not a number 1

 

13th in rushing attempts
26th in passing attempts

For context Luck has 600 attempts already, THill's attempts are the 2nd lowest for a Qb who started all yr behind..Mark Sanchez

And quietly Tannehill has reached 1 to 1 Td to int ratio this after being 6-10 td to int ratio at one point.

 

So why do you think we didn't throw as much?

 

Another interesting context stat:

#1 in the NFL in rushing?

RG3's Redskins

#2 Wilson Seachickens

#13 Tannehill

#22 Luck's colts

 

Well, a couple of reasons:

-we had a offensive drought in the middle of the year, suspect that hurt our number of attempts
-they are protecting Tannehill, our rushing Td's look to be top 8 at 15

 

yeah? ..... How 'bout some examples, Pods.


Rich Gannon, 11 straight years w/o a Pro Bowl.

• 75.6 QBR, 66 TD, 54 INT, 56.9%, 11,158 yards

Rich Gannon, 4 years w/ a combination of Tim Brown, Jerry Rice, James Jett, Andre Rison, Jerry Porter, and Ricky Dudley

• 93.2 QBR, 105 TD, 44 INT, 63.4%, 15,787 yards
• NFL MVP, 3x AFC POY, 3x All Pro, 4x Pro Bowl, 1 SB appearance.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mark Rypien, [46 starts] w/ The Posse still playing at a high level (Art Monk, Gary Clark, Ricky Sanders)

• 88.5 QBR, 84 TD, 48 INT, 11132 yards, 7.9 Y/A.
• NFC OPOY, SB MVP, 2x Pro Bowl,

Mark Rypien [55 games/ 32 starts] w/ an aged Posse or without them at all.

• 67.7 QBR, 31 TD, 40 INT, 7341 yards, 6.1 Y/A
• no accolades

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Donovan McNabb's lone year with Terrell Owens in his prime. (Philly won NFC by the way)

• 104.7 QBR, 31 TD (6.6%), 8 INT (1.7%), 3875 yards, 8.3 Y/A, 64.0%
  

McNabb's average season w/o Owens

• 86.8 QBR, 20 TD (4.4%), 10 INT (2.2%), 3210 yards, 6.1 Y/A, 59.4%

1987 Redskins won the SB with a mixture of Jay Schroeder, Doug Williams, and Ed Rubbert who, combined, finished 4th in passing TDs, 4th in passing yardage, and 7th in QBR with Art Monk [HOF], Gary Clark [All Pro that year], and Ricky Sanders.

Go check out how Jeff George looked in '99 with Randy Moss, Cris Carter, and Jake Reed when he posted a 94.2 QBR [14 higher than his career avg], a whopping 7.0 TD% [nearly double his career average of 3.8%], and 8.6 yards/attempt.

 

QBs who played with and w/o Randy Moss & Cris Carter

Randall Cunningham (1 season)............. 106.0 QBR... 34 TD (8.0%)... 10 INT (2.4%)... 8.7 y/a... 3704 yards... 265 completions
Cunningham's 6 seasons avg w/o them.... 81.1 QBR... 22 TD (4.7%)... 12 INT( 2.8%)... 6.8 y/a... 3245 yards... 264 completions

** Notice how different the stats are despite the completions being almost identical. Cunningham completed just 1 more pass but had 12 more TDs and nearly 500 more yards.
{Only used seasons where Randall started 12+ games}


Jeff George (1 yr, 10 games)....... 94.2 QBR... 23 TD (7.0%)... 12 INT (3.6%)... 8.6 y/a... 235 y/g, 191 completions
George's 4 year avg with Colts..... 72.0 QBR... 10 TD (2.7%)... 12 INT (3.0%)... 6.2 y/a... 183 y/g, 218 completions


Culpepper's last year with Moss......................................... 110.9 QBR... 39 TD (7.1%)... 11 INT (2.0%)... 8.6 y/a... 4714 yards... 295 y/g
Culpepper's 1st year w/o Moss (7 games before injury)........ 72.0 QBR.... 6 TD (2.8%).... 12 INT (5.6%)... 7.2 y/a... 1564 yards... 223 y/g

 

And then omit for example McNabb with Jackson et al, or Vick et al

Watched Garrard struggle even after adding "elite' Wr type prospects.

And if one is saying "add HoF Wr's in their primes"

Sure, Cutler will even look better playing with Knox and Marshall, however if one thinks about it, he also played fine without them either.

And if one is trying to say two Hof Wr's, Carter and Moss, makes a Qb look better, oh I'll agree.

But Montana was fine without them, he won a Sb with Clark and Solomon.

Did Brady have "elite" Wr's when they won Sb's?

Ben R won his with a good, but not HoF type Wr's, they did have a good Te and running game.

Are any of Manning's original Sb winning Wr's still on the team?

 

Jon Kitna (with Chad Johnson & Peter Warrick)............ 87.4 QBR... 26 TD (5.0%)... 15 INT (2.9%)... 62.3%... 224 y/g... 6.9 y/a
Jon Kitna (with Miles Austin & Dez Bryant, 10 games).. 88.9 QBR... 16 TD (5.0%)... 12 INT (3.0%)... 65.7%... 234 y/g... 7.4 y/a
Jon Kitna's career average............................................77.4 QBR..............(3.8%).............. (3.7%)... 60.3%
****and that includes the above 2 years pulling up his average****


2009 Favre w/ Percy Harvin & Sydney Rice.......... 107.2 QBR.. 33 TD (6.2%).... 7 INT (1.7%).. 68.4%.. 7.9 y/a.. 3472 yards.. 343 comps
2008 Favre w/ an average receiving corps in NY... 81.0 QBR.. 22 TD (4.2%).. 22 INT (4.2%).. 65.7%.. 6.7 y/a.. 4202 yards.. 363 comps
2007 Favre w/ a good receiving corps in GB......... 95.7 QBR.. 28 TD (5.2%).. 15 INT (2.8%).. 66.5%.. 7.8 y/a.. 4155 yards.. 356 comps
****That's a significant variance in stats considering it's the same QB and almost the same amount of completions & completion %.


QBs with and w/o Moss & Welker

Brady 2002-'06 avg (No Moss & Welker)........ 88.7 QBR... 26 TD (4.9%)... 13 INT (2.5%)... 7.1 y/a.... 61.6% completion.... 3743 yards
Brady 2007 (with Moss & Welker)................. 117.2 QBR... 50 TD (8.7%)..... 8 INT (1.4%)... 8.3 y/a.... 68.9% completion.... 4806 yards

Matt Cassell (with Moss & Welker)................... 89.4 QBR... 21 TD (4.1%)... 11 INT (2.1%)... 7.2 y/a... 63.4%.... 3693 yards
Cassell (following year, no Moss/Welker)....... 69.9 QBR... 16 TD (3.2%).... 16 INT (3.2%)... 5.9 y/a... 59.0%.... 2924 yards


Brady 2010-'11 (w/ Gronk, Welker, Hernandez)... 108.0 QBR... 38 TD (6.8%).... 8 INT (1.5%)... 8.3 y/a... 65.7% completion... 4568 yards

**Just throwing this out there: of the four 15+ win teams since Randy Moss came into the league, Moss was on 2 of them.

 

Phinsational, if one wishes to have a discussion then fine, to continue to cherry pick Hof type of players and say "gee adding so and so"

Is fairly bogus and not a discussion it is more trolling imo.

Now if we can somehow land a HoF type Wr prospect at #19 due to character concerns, land a Hof type player whose team waived him, add a #1 overall Qb or perenniel all pro to those two Wr's

Or, simply have a 3 time Sb winning Qb and just plug pieces around him

or simply add a league MVP Qb, one may have a point.

Manning beat the Pats with Toomer and a couple of other guys in the Sb, yet they don't make the list?

Ben R won with a strong running game and good, not great Wr's.

 

24th at 31.3 pg

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/pass-attempts-per-game

 

Hartline does not affect my negotiation, if 3.5 mill is all I can do so I can afford Jennings then that's it for Hart.

 

I like little hotdogs 8D

 

We need consistent playmakers and qb play. We definitely need a better number# 1.

 

I think he meant 8 million pesos.

 

I guess so. I'm still waiting for you to acknowledge that QBR measures the effectiveness of the passing game and not just the QB. It is slightly more accurate than just going off if wins and losses or Super Bowl rings.