The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill: Part II

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Dec 24, 2012.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And yet he won with a rather meek Wr corps

    Not a believer in Qbr meaning much uab, what matters is making the throws that count when they are there imo.
     
  2. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Oh, they absolutely do have more attempts. 136 more. That is why I did it as YAC per attempt. Instead of just overall YAC. Now that I'm typing this though, Im realizing I prob should have done is YAC per completion.
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Welker is leading the league as it is FN.

    FWIW, 130 more attempts is like 3 games for Tannehill..:lol:
     
  4. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Fins average 4.7 YAC/completion. Pats average 5.7, and both he Falcons and Seahawks average around 5.0-5.1 YAC/completion.
     
  5. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Funny you mention Eli.
    He didn't post an 87+ passer rating until 2009 when he had a great receiving trio in 1st round Nicks, Manningham, and a healthy Pro Bowl Steve Smith. 93.1 QBR to be exact, compared to his first 5 year average of 76.1.

    In 2010, Steve Smith was injured, and Eli's passer rating dropped to 85.3. To be more precise, after Smith went down in game eight, 4 of Eli's final 8 games saw QBRs below 64.0.

    Then in 2011, with the stellar trio of Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham, Eli's QBR was again 90+ and looking great.

    This year, with Manningham gone and Nicks dinged up, Eli's QBR has dropped yet again, to 83.6 this time.
     
  6. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Right. Which is why I'm trying to take the attempts amount out of the equation by dividing the overall YAC by the number of attempts and then later dividing the overall YAC by the number of completions... to be able to properly compare them and put them all on the same level. You're following me, right?
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'm not the one arguing Qbr phinsational.

    And one did note with Smith out, but those high picks on the roster, his qbr dropped?



    I'm far mor of a completion percentage and Td to Int ratio person.
     
  8. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    PS:
    Apparently you've never seen this guy called Victor Cruz and the plays he MAKES for his QB, poorly thrown ball or not, defenders in his face or not, unlike Brian Hartline. You should take a look at him and see all the things Hartline & Bess will never be able to do, and as such continue to limit the offense's potential.

    [video=youtube;3_5zpBaJ9V8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_5zpBaJ9V8[/video]
     
  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Simmer down FN, simmer down..I follow you, one wants more of a head to head focus on YAC.

    Eh, it's a loongg offseason, plenty of time for that FN.

    Tell you what strikes me, is we have 3 players in the top 75 in YAC, two are FA's, no one else even rates.

    Seems to me we'd be better served keeping those 3 and adding pieces around them.
     
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  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That Cruz guy, he was a UDFA was he not?
     
  11. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    LOL. yeah, nice try there. More crap argument by you. Name ONE these "high pick" receivers who is truly READY to contribute in NY's offense.
     
  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    As you astutely pointed out, Nicks was a first rd pick the yr before Smith was injured.

    Add in, Manning was in yr what, 6? 7?

    And do notice, they drafted Nicks after their established, though limited, Wr's had already won a Sb.

    manningham started 0 games in 08, Smith 4 games.
     
  13. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    If you are interpreting the tone of my text to be hostile, I apologize. Not the intent at all. It's just late after a long Christmas day and I wanted to make sure I was making sense, lol.

    Seem to be brushing that to the side though and switching to our FAs needing to br re-signed. (I would be on board with signing both, pending on the deals and what else we could get with that money.)

    The pathetic YAC ability is a serious issue though, and shouldn't be dismissed. It's a big problem and one of the serious limitations of our passing game.
     
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  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    So that's your argument?--> trying to use the EXCEPTION to the norm as a reason to forego high picks on receiver and instead seek out UDFAs to fill legitimate receiver needs? If that's not f'd up logic I don't know what is. :lol:

    Cruz is an outstanding player, which is all that matters. The higher the draft pick used, the better the chance you have at finding a great player, not the other way around, brobeans. You wanna compare lists of great 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round receivers to those from the 6th, 7th, and FA, and see whose is longer? I'll even do it outside in 30 degree weather and mine will still be longer. lol
     
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  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Was saying that FN, more such statistical effort is more for the offseason then 12:38 am the day after Christmas.

    I've pointed this out several times though, watch were THill should be hitting the receivers, above the hips and below the shoulders towards the inside of the field.

    He does not do that consistently and this is one of the limiting factors in our YAC total.

    Not the only one mind you, more what is actually there is not maximized.
     
  16. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    ... who has been dinged up this year, like I already mentioned when pointing out how his stats dropped this year w/o Manningham and with a banged up Cruz. :wink2:

    That doesn't explain a 10 point drop from 93 QBR to 83 QBR, nor from 93 to 85 when his WR corps is lessened.

    yup, and Eli's 2008 production struggled b/c of it with just 21 TDs, 3200 yards, and 6.8 y/a

    ...... and then in the playoffs?...OUCH.
    Against a good Philly defense, Eli and NY's passing game SUCKED. 40.7 QBR. 2 INTs. 0 TDs. 23-11 loss.

    Ya see, that can tend to happen verse great defenses when you do NOT have the overall talent at receiver to match up. That was Atlanta's problem, and it was the MAIN reason they gave up so much to get Julio Jones. It doesn't matter how good your combined seasonal stats "appear" if your WR personnel makes it difficult to beat great defenses.
     
  17. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    But how could that be Phinsational, they drafted Manningham+Smith and signed Burress?

    And it turned, out, darn it, UDFA Cruz out played them both in NYG?
     
  18. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I didn't say the correlation was perfect. :)
     
  19. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Do you understand how correlations work?
     
  20. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    What an insane idea! :headscratch:

    No, we can't agree with that one. We have to spend umpteen pages debating it instead. ;)
     
  21. Why not produce an example of the QBR going up after decreasing wr talent on the offense. I mean if the QBR has nothing to do with WRs then it should not be too hard to find a many examples confirming it.
     
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  22. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill needs to improve. He has a GOOD season for being a raw rookie. I know some of you Jeff Ireland lovers want to make the case that we have enough receiver talent to win, but that is simply not the case.
     
  23. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I don't think you need to do that when QB rating is so strongly associated with the consensus individual ability of such a wide range of QBs over such a long period of time.

    When you think back about the best QBs of all time, and you do some investigation and realize that those QBs also had the best career QB ratings of all time, the conclusion is simple: it's an adequate measure of individual QB ability.

    And once again, despite the perceptions that Tannehill's surrounding cast is so woefully inept, his QB rating is no worse than that of the average rookie QB since 2004.

    This is all very simple IMO. We have a rookie QB. It takes these fancy statistical analyses not to illustrate that idea, but rather to disprove the fantasy that he would somehow be performing so much better with a better supporting cast.

    That fantasy is generated by fans' hope that Tannehill is really much better than he appears, and it is simply wrong IMO. And what you see here is that the hope is so strong that it defies objective evidence. There is too much riding on this emotionally for people to simply yield to reality.

    It's about like religion, where "faith" drives the bus, not objective findings. :)
     
  24. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    You are right this team is great, Tannehill sucks. We would be 15-1 with Matt Ryan.
     
  25. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Why even draft receivers? Get a great qb and surround him with UDFA. If he is any good, he will produce.
     
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  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That is not a good "check"*of your correlation.

    And yet, as has been pointed out to you repeatedly, there's the problem with Luck. Luck is supposedly producing at a much higher level, yet his rating is lower than Tanny's. You have to account for that. You have to account for more TDs. You have to account for a better record. There's difference between them yet the stat you swear deals with individual performance is worse.

    You have yet to explain how completed passes is not a 2 man stat.
     
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  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    We'll see, we have 3 players in the top 75 in YAC, 2 are FA's.

    If they leave, (Bush and Hartline) we have:

    -Daniel Thomas
    -Lamar Miller
    -Marcus Thigpen

    to replace Bush, DTrain flashes but is injury prone, Miller has 170 career yards and Thigpen is rarely used in the offense

    Hartline leaves:

    -Absolutely no one

    I'm in favor of retaining those two and adding pieces around them rather than doing what Ireland does:

    -"I'm not overpaying, trust me"

    How nice, Armon Binns: beast, we have dopey on the chain gun so to speak.

    But he will sign Jake Long
     
  28. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
     
  29. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Should we take your word for that? Has the all-knowing "Patssuck" spoken?
     
  30. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    I resign both. I pay Hartline as a number 2 because that is what he is.
     
  31. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Also Tannehill would be BETTER with a guy that can take a 5 yard pass into a 30 yard gain. He would be BETTER with consistent TE. It's common sense.
     
  32. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    It's a common-sense theory that appeals to so many because it proposes some sort of scenario in which Tannehill would perform much better than he is, through no fault of his own, but it rests on no objective reality whatsoever in terms of systematically investigating what Tannehill has actually experienced and how that compares to other rookie QBs.

    It's a common-sense theory that makes people feel good because it's consistent with their fantasies, but it rides on nothing objective at all.

    Again, religion.
     
  33. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I would as well, but I'd DRAFT a Wr and SIGN a Te.

    Unless they just have a ton of faith in Matthews developing, which is not impossible rather you don't go all in on that proposition.

    Fasano is good, but replace able, but very much an Ireland type who is good all around but not a playmaker.

    Fasano also leads us in receiving Td's which means:

    -Leading rusher
    -Leading Receiver
    -Leading Td scorer

    All FA's with not much behind them.
     
  34. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Never said I was all knowning. Stop projecting. I base it on the fact that our receivers have 3 touchdowns this year and neither of them have ever been red zone threats. Look I know you think that Ireland is a great gm, but it is simply no so:
    1.) Offensive line still shaky
    2.) No Te
    3.) replaced Marshall with Nanee
     
  35. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    Still defending yourself, Galileo?
     
  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Still checking back in to find out, Pee Wee? :lol: ;)
     
  37. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    I would draft a pass rusher in the first and a wr and TE in the 2nd round.
     
  38. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    Using my retorts again? How do you not see the irony in that?

    I'm checking in, because I'm wondering how, in the hell that Cam Cameron should be in, is this 21-page troll still going.
     
  39. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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  40. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Objectively a great receivers helps Qbs. Everyone in the business would tell you that. I forgot that you are that much smarter the everyone.
     

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