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The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill: Part II

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Dec 24, 2012.

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  1. Dec 24, 2012 #1
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    This thread is a follow-up to this one:

    http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?73384-The-Talent-Surrounding-Ryan-Tannehill

    Once again, the issue for exploration is how much the Dolphins' performance this year has been explained by Ryan Tannehill's performance versus the performance of the talent around him.

    What I did for this one was take a look at the relationship between team offensive point production and the QB ratings of Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan.

    I chose Brady and Ryan for comparison because they are often mentioned as having far greater talent around them than Ryan Tannehill.

    What I did here is correlate the offensive point production of all three teams (Dolphins, Patriots, and Falcons) with the QB ratings of their quarterbacks. In doing that I subtracted points that were scored by the defense or special teams.

    If the talent surrounding Ryan Tannehill is truly significantly worse than the talent surrounding either Tom Brady or Matt Ryan, then the correlation between Tannehill's QB rating and the Dolphins' offensive point production should be significantly higher than the same correlations for Brady and the Patriots and for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

    In other words, as Ryan Tannehill goes, so should the team go, to a significantly greater degree than for Brady and the Patriots and for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Said differently, in terms of offensive scoring, the team should be significantly more dependent on what Ryan Tannehill does, because the offensive talent around him is less capable of generating such scoring. The offense should be "on his shoulders" so to speak.

    Here's the actual data for all three QBs (the Jets game away was not included for Ryan Tannehill):

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 384, align: left"]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]
    Game​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]
    MIA​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]
    Tannehill​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]
    NEP​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]
    Brady​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]
    ATL​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]
    Ryan​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]39
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]117.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]40
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]136.4
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]35
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]91
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]18
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]79.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]101.5
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]20
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]50.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]30
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]101.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]107.8
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]86.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]52
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]120.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]30
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]107.2
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]92.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]104.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]89
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]112
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]79.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]59.4
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]20
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]90.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]20
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]95.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]20
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]137.4
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]42.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]45
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]131.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]19
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]102.8
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]46.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]37
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]96.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]100.7
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]97.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]38
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]127.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]40.5
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]66.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]35
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]144.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]110
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]74.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]74.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]78.5
    [/TD]
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    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]123.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]42
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]125.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]20
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]94.1
    [/TD]
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    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]14
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]93.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]34
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]68.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]34
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]142.6
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]73.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]142.6
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    CORR​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    0.712​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    CORR​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.656
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    CORR​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.720
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    So as you can see above, the correlation between the Dolphins' offensive point production and Ryan Tannehill's QB rating this year has been 0.712. For the Patriots and Brady, it's been 0.656, and for the Falcons and Matt Ryan, it's been 0.720.

    Although I won't subject them to a formal statistical test, I'd say the correlations are not significantly different from each other, statistically speaking.

    Contrary to many people's belief, the talent around Ryan Tannehill isn't any worse in terms of the Miami Dolphins' offensive performance than the talent around either Tom Brady or Matt Ryan.

    In fact, the quarterback whose play his team appears to ride on the most is the one thought to have the most talent around him of the three: Matt Ryan.
     
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  2. Dec 24, 2012 #2
    Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Are you are using stats to tell me Julio Jones and Roddy White aren't that big of an upgrade on Hartline and Bess? Interesting.
     
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  3. Dec 24, 2012 #3
    Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    No. I am not talking for Shouright, however I think he is saying that the play of the QB is more important than the play of the WR
     
  4. Dec 24, 2012 #4
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Take a look at the difference between Ryan Tannehill's QB rating and Matt Ryan's and tell me where you'd get the bigger upgrade. ;)
     
  5. Dec 24, 2012 #5
    FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Maybe I'm having trouble understanding what you are saying here, so if I am I apologize. However, if stats say that the offensive talent surrounding Tannehill is comparable to the offensive talent surrounding Brady and Matt Ryan... then I don't care what the stats have to say.
     
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  6. Dec 24, 2012 #6
    Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The thing is you are talking about talent. Something that cant be attributed with a numeric value, and it can't be deduced with correlation IMO. Maybe Ryan's QBR is higher because of the better talent around him, regardless of your correlation. You correlation is a great indicator, but I don't think it can be the end all be all.

    If you step back and put the paper and pencil away, do you honestly think their WRs aren't a significant upgrade over ours, regardless of what your calcs told you? What about TE? OL?
     
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  7. Dec 24, 2012 #7
    Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    Considering that QB rating takes passing touchdowns into effect, the only significant difference in "correlation" would relate to the ratio of passing to rushing touchdowns by the team. What does this prove?
     
  8. Dec 24, 2012 #8
    Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    I don't think this is very good analysis. You are correlating passer rating with offensive output, but unless a team is very reliant on a running offense, the correlations is almost always going to lean towards higher QBR = higher point output.

    The only thing i can gather from these is: Either you think Tannehill, Brady, Ryan are all equally talented (doubt you think that); or NE, Mia, Atl offensive weapons are equal (crazy if you think so); or that Tannehill is on equal level talentwise as his offensive weapons (i don't agree, but certainly debatable)
     
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  9. Dec 24, 2012 #9
    padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The Bills game was a good example of why Tannehill is not producing more statistically speaking.

    3 Td's for Bush, 2 rushing, they seem to prefer running the ball into the EZ than allowing Tannehill to throw it.
     
  10. Dec 24, 2012 #10
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Look we need receivers that can run after the catch, not guys that fall down as soon as they make the catch. It's that simple. We need players that can house the *****.
     
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  11. Dec 24, 2012 #11
    Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    Bush had 2 catching TDs, 1 rushing. But i agree with your point.
     
  12. Dec 24, 2012 #12
    Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Shou's statistics are "correct" in that they show the correlation that he's looking for, but I think the analysis of what the numbers actually mean is off. Offensive talent can't score in the passing game without increasing the quarterback rating so I'm not sure how you can separate the quarterback from his surrounding talent simply by using QBR and points scored.
     
  13. Dec 24, 2012 #13
    unifiedtheory

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    Shou, I've agreed with you and disagreed with you on many things for many years.

    This statistical analysis is quite frankly, rubbish.

    I will not disagree with the PREMISE that quarterback play is more important than skill position play. That said, Roddy White and Julio Jones v. Brian Hartline and Devon Bess (or Marlon Moore) is not an argument you should have, regardless of the statistics. I know you are purposely being contrarian (we need a dose of that here sometimes) and trying to keep some of our feet on the ground regarding Tannehill (I need that sometimes as well) but statistics can be bent in a lot of ways.

    This team NEEDS offensive talent. You know this. Yesterday we had Marlon ****ing Moore (who will not be on this roster in 6 months if Ireland does what he should), a bad backed Brian Hartline (a good #2), Armon Binns (who signed 2 weeks ago) and Rashad Mathews (who would be, at best, a practice squad player on the Falcons or the Patriots) on the field when we went 4 wide.

    Brian Hartline is a #3 on the Falcons and the other three probably don't make their roster.

    Brian Hartline might be the #3 on the Patriots roster but when Gronk and Hernandez are healthy he likely see's 20 snaps a game. The other guys are not on their roster.

    We. Need. Talent.

    Simple.
     
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  14. Dec 24, 2012 #14
    unifiedtheory

    unifiedtheory Sub Pending Luxury Box

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    And speed. We have none. We need a burner who can cause coverages to roll his direction because of the threat, opening the middle of the field. Also, as you said, a guy who can catch a pass and score touchdowns. We must have the worst R.A.C. receivers in the NFL.
     
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  15. Dec 24, 2012 #15
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Let me ask you this: why, if there is so much more talent surrounding Matt Ryan, do the Falcons score just as many more points than they normally do when Matt Ryan plays well, as the Dolphins do when Ryan Tannehill plays well?

    Why isn't the increase in the Dolphins' point production when Ryan Tannehill plays well, as compared to the Falcons' when Matt Ryan plays well, suppressed by the inferior talent around him?
     
  16. Dec 24, 2012 #16
    uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    I think that the scores of the dolphins and falcons games against cardinals would disagree with your notion that both teams score similarly based on quarterback play.
     
  17. Dec 24, 2012 #17
    GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Put down the calculator and pick up some game tape. That is all.
     
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  18. Dec 24, 2012 #18
    Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    this is one convoluted statistical analysis signifying nothing.

    There is no static element between the three QB's. NONE. So you CANNOT use one single metric to make a comparison between the three to then form an opinion "somehow" of their overall surrounding talent without taking into consideration, what could be somewhere around (I am serious) 200 to 250 other factors.

    it's too broad an analysis.
     
  19. Dec 24, 2012 #19
    finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    the Qb ratings of seasoned vets with more talent around them on playoff teams with coaching staffs that have been in place for years are better than a rookie Qb with lesser talent and rookie coaches? Shocking. I mean did you really waste your time on this nonsense?
     
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  20. Dec 24, 2012 #20
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Both teams don't score similarly, and I haven't said that. What I've said is that the change in their scoring (up or down) as a function of their quarterback play is similar.
     
  21. Dec 24, 2012 #21
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Perhaps when you actually understand it you'll have something worthwhile to share.
     
  22. Dec 24, 2012 #22
    Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    if you broadened your sample to include every single starting QB in the NFL, I think you might get the same result.

    It's a poor statistical analysis. but a good effort nonetheless.
     
  23. Dec 24, 2012 #23
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Ah, but the analysis, on "sight" alone, that the talent surrounding Ryan Tannehill is responsible for his play is comparatively "narrow" and precise. OK. :rolleyes:
     
  24. Dec 24, 2012 #24
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Precisely. And what that would show is that quarterbacks drive the bus, not the talent around them.

    Show me a team whose scoring is suppressed in comparison to that of other teams when its quarterback plays well, and I'll show you a team whose surrounding talent is inferior and not its quarterback.
     
  25. Dec 24, 2012 #25
    PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    So there's a 10% chance of rain tomorrow in Miami with a Humidity of 65% and a High around 80F.
     
  26. Dec 24, 2012 #26
    uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    So then you would agree that our average score would go up with better receivers, but are just pointing out that when tannehills qb rating is lower we can expect the team to score less?
     
  27. Dec 24, 2012 #27
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Our average score would go up a whole lot more if the QB rating were higher than if the receivers were better. Thats what this analysis and the other one (the one linked in the original post) show definitively IMO.
     
  28. Dec 24, 2012 #28
    Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    you said that. I didn't.
     
  29. Dec 24, 2012 #29
    Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    yes. But better talent can help the QB's play to meet the metrics that dictate winning.
     
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  30. Dec 24, 2012 #30
    Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    Being an elite NFL player is about being able to consistently reproduce good performances.

    By your rhetoric, Hank Baskett must be equivalent to Calvin Johnson, because when Hank Baskett plays well, he puts up Calvin Johnson-like statistics.
     
  31. Dec 24, 2012 #31
    uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    What I was pointing out is that an 86.5 qb rating from tannehill generated 21 points, while a 40.5 rating from Matt Ryan generated 23 points against one of the two opponents that we shared.

    I guess something to consider is whether or not our average QB rating would be a lot higher if the receivers were better. Kind of a chicken or the egg type question.
     
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  32. Dec 24, 2012 #32
    JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol shoes at it again.
     
  33. Dec 24, 2012 #33
    Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    QB rating would be higher, if the receivers were better. Consequently, we would score a whole lot more.

    All these are directly proportional with each other.
     
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  34. Dec 24, 2012 #34
    sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Statistical analysis in the NFL in my opinion is a bunch of BS. More than in any other sport, numbers tell very little of the story especially when we try and bring advanced metrics into the equation. There is just so much that goes into every play from so many different angles that you have to use you eyes, and not numbers to see what's happening. Anyone trying to make the argument that Tannehill has an adequate supporting cast (let alone make some kind of comparison to the Falcons skill players) simply doesn't understand football. Watch the games and it is very clear. Why is it that when any analyst around the NFL from the best to the worst is asked about Ryan Tannehill they bring up a need for better talent around him? I'll tell you why, because it's the painfully obvious truth.
     
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  35. Dec 24, 2012 #35
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You may not be able to imagine this to be true, because it sounds like you perceive yourself to be intelligent, but you're not understanding the premise nor how the statistics are being used to explore it.
     
  36. Dec 24, 2012 #36
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Click on the link in the original post for the refutation of that idea.
     
  37. Dec 24, 2012 #37
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    But the supposed lack of talent does not explain the team's record or it's offensive scoring output. Ryan Tannehill's play explains both of those to a much greater degree.

    The guy is a very raw, rookie quarterback. This is all very simple in theory. What it takes are all these statistics to disprove the idea that Ryan Tannehill and the team would be playing a whole lot better if his surrounding talent were better.

    The truth is that the team would be scoring and winning more if RYAN TANNEHILL were playing better, and the effect of the surrounding talent is much, much less than some people believe.
     
  38. Dec 24, 2012 #38
    Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    No one does.

    It's ironic that you would make a post like this in a thread that you started, wherein you've been tirelessly defending empty statistics.
     
  39. Dec 24, 2012 #39
    Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    Feb 27, 2012
    Miami
    That link offers no refutation, nor does your analysis.

    You have shown that higher QBR correlates to higher points. However, you have NOT given evidence as to how that higher QBR is obtained. If you can prove that higher QBR solely comes from better QB playing and no other factor, then you might have a point.

    As is it, your only argument is that higher QBR = higher points, and not that higher QBR, and consequently higher scoring, only comes from QBs playing better, which is what you are trying to pass here.
     
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  40. Dec 24, 2012 #40
    FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

    24,662
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    Dec 1, 2007
    QB rating is directly effected by surrounding talent, which is one of the things that makes this analysis invalid. If a WR breaks a tackle and takes a simple 5 yard pass or screen pass 50 yards to the house (kinda like Roddy White's 2nd TD on Saturday), that would improve the QB's quarterback rating. Nothing about said pass would be reflective of great play by the QB... yet the spike upwads in QB rating would indicate that it was great play by the QB.

    QB rating is based on end result, not on what lead to the result. If you throw a perfect bomb into the bread basket of the WR for a 50 yard TD, you would get the same rating as you would for that lame screen pass.

    Similarly, quarterback rating grades a perfectly placed pass that is dropped by the WR the same as a pass that misses the WR by 20 yards.

    So, QB rating isn't just a grade of QB play, but essentially a grade of the passing game that factors in many more things other than strictly QB play, including surrounding talent.
     
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