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The Ripple Effect of Bad QB Play

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Aqua4Ever04, Feb 9, 2018.

  1. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Favre only won SB's with defenses ranked in PPG 1st, and 5th, and Rodgers defense was ranked 2nd for their championship.

    Since '00, the Patriots defense has ranked in PPG 6th, 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 1st respectively.

    The Saints defense had an incredible 8 takeaways in their SB run, including the one and only takeaway in the SB with a pick 6 that sealed the game.

    There are many more examples, as well.
     
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  2. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agree but the most important defensive statistics to me are PPG, and then takeaways. I addressed above the incredible amount of takeaways the Saints D produced in their playoff run to continually put the ball back in their offenses' hands at opportune times. They not only had the pick 6 in the SB to seal the game, but also had 5 takeaways in the NCFCCG which includes another Tracy Porter INT of Favre which forced OT.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    This is actually true from a statistical point of view. The most important is points allowed per game, which for defense will have a correlation of around -0.75, then there are two stats that are similar in terms of how important they are: takeaways and opponent passer rating, both with around -0.65 correlation to win%.

    So your intuition is correct there though it needs to add in opponent passer rating in addition to takeaways. And New Orleans was the 3rd best in the league in the 2009 regular season in opponent passer rating at 68.8.
     
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  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa Club Member

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    There's more to the team than simply a QB and the defense.
     
  5. Walter

    Walter Active Member

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    Let me think a second and with the extra help from the actually informative cbrad whos reasoning deductions I have to go over many times,,,,,, and go excellently with a few tall ones;

    Y divided by the hypothesis of W deducted from the dividend added to the % of the present time over 4.723 = yes thats it: Eli Manning, 2011 Giants
    ( cbrad would have a chart....well I'm learning)lol


    If not mistaken, The New York Giants won Super Bowl XLVI despite having a defense that finished the 2011 season ranked No. 27 in the NFL. The team they beat, the New England Patriots, had a defense that was ranked even lower, at No. 31 in the NFL in 2011.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2018
  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Could have held your breath. NO Saints 2009. 20th in points allowed during the season. Post season 9th in ypg, 6th in points. Definitively mediocre.
     
  7. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But you see, Carmen left him an out, he said reg season and post season, and then said "some aspect" which allows him to backdoor any stat really.

    The Ravens in 2011 were mediocre as well. And they were terrible in ypg in the post season, but 2nd in ppg allowed (post season) so I didn't include them. Because of the "outs" Carmen built in ;)
     
  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    About Warren Moon? I'm not impressed
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Of course.. but defense is almost half the game. Point is.. a bunch of great QB's played on otherwise not so great teams.
     
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  10. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I was directing my stats with the modern era, when they opened up the passing game. We're talking about the influence of QBs on wins, and back in the day, QBs were throwing 15-25 a game, max. Look at Bob Griese, 21 attempts a game, 5 INT percentage, same as his TD percentage. Fouts comes the closest but even he threw almost as many INTs and TDs. QBs were less important then to the team w/l. It's changed signficantly since then. Can you imagine a QB today throwing for 30 TDs and 28 INTs, winning games, and going to the HOF? No.
     
  11. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    PPG and then takeaways were the measures I noted. Thanks for playing.
     
  12. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Honest and curious question: Are you old enough to have been able to watch him play?
     
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated

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    What is the debate?

    What is more important to a contending team? Def or Qb??

    It’s a fair question. But in the salary cap era, if I could get a top tier QB I’d take him because he will be with your team for years most likely. It’s hard to consistently have a good defense for 10+ years.
     
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  14. Irishman

    Irishman Member

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    This was such a good post I wish I could give it 2 likes.
     
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  15. Irishman

    Irishman Member

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    After reading all of this thread, one thing is abundantly clear to me. The deeper we get into the off season the more extreme our TURD polishing becomes!
     
  16. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    I think the biggest ripple effect is the offensive line. It affects the offense and the defense. Coaching can still muck up a good offensive line, though.

    You look at the main reason Pats didn't make the Super Bowl last year and it was because Tre Mason was forced into action his rookie year and it cost them home field advantage in the playoffs because they lost to us because the GOAT had zero time to throw the ball. Which is why Belichek mostly ran rhe ball in the first half against us that game. Opting for a Sparano-esque stategy because he knew his O-line stunk.

    Heck, look at our own perfect season. It was the offensive line that was the most dominant group.
     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Aww man, I saw that you posted and I was hoping to find a post-season hype video featuring great Dolphins plays OR horrible Patriots plays....both would have been equally enjoyable right about now.

    BTW, good to see you posting. =)
     
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  18. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Patriots won the Super Bowl last year, and the reason they lost to us and ultimately the AFCCG in '15 was the absence of the great o-line coach Dante Scarnechhia; not b/c of Tre Mason.
     
  19. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Interesting. Did not know that.

    And whoops on the last year statement. I'm human after all...

    Edit-is this SonsofShula, because if it is, I loved your knowledgebase and missed you on Finheaven.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2018
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  20. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    I got a good song cued up if Jarvis leaves, but I couldn't will myself to make one for the end of the season...and thank you. Miss you guys
     
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  21. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    "I think Warren Moon is the only HOF without a significant career w/l record, and I don't believe Moon is a HOF QB."

    Don't spin it...lol. You wrote no HoF QB has a poor win/loss record. I provided 5. There are probably more, but I stopped looking.

    Besdies, wins/losses aren't QB stats. At least not a meaningful stat.

    (And Moon is in the HoF...)
     
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  22. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There are 26 modern era and something like 6 pre-modern era QB's in the HoF. I went by the modern era.
     
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  23. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa Club Member

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    The best Doctor Who of all time.
     
  25. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    You obviously haven’t sen William Hartnell.
     
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  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa Club Member

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    Is he one of the new ones? I couldn't get into the newer ones. Love the ones from the 70s and 80s.

    Edit: Just looked...I didn't see many of the ones from that era.
     
  27. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The original: A grumpy old man who refuses to explain anything. Back when the daleks were genuinely scary, now they’ve bcone a cliche.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018
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  28. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    How many HOF QB's had losing records?
     
  29. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    How many players in the HOF have losing records?

    I remember when Tez went into the HoF and how people were throwing the fact that he was on mostly bad teams most of his career as a reason why he should not be in.
     
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  30. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  31. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Barry Sanders was something like 82-96 for his career. He SUCKED!!!


    lmaoooo!
     
  32. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Our very own JT went something like 117-125 for his career. He sucked, too.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa Club Member

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    How many HoF QBs played on teams with limited weapons on offense and bad defenses? How many HoF QBs had coaching carousels throughout their careers?
     
  34. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    Not exactly my point. Generally speaking, HoF players play on good to great teams.

    I would like to see the breakdown of players and average win percentage in the HoF.
     
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  35. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    Kurt Warner, during his bad years.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa Club Member

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    Ok. Would Kurt Warner be in the HoF if he hadn't ended up on one of the greatest offensive teams of all time?
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Warner MADE that offense into the league best. No other way to see it. The Rams offense ranked 26,21,22,20,23,24 from 1993-1998, and then suddenly Warner starts in 1999 and that offense is #1 three years in a row!

    Furthermore, the Rams won 5,4,7,6,5,4 games from 1993-1998 and then suddenly from 1999-2001 they win 13,10,14 games go to the SB twice and win it once, and made the playoffs all 3 years.

    That's probably about as good an example of a QB (a single player) influencing win% as you'll find, though one might have to say "two players" because they did bring in Faulk in 1999, but still.. QB is by far the more influential.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa Club Member

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    Didn't they change their offensive scheme? They had Holt, Faulk, and others. They changed football. It really wasn't simply Warner.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    One could try to say it was mostly Mike Martz who became the OC in 1999 and then HC from 2000, but the problem with that is his offense was ranked #1 in points for 3 years in a row while Warner was in top form, but once Warner's play fell off in 2002 you see that Martz first as HC in St. Louis (until 2005) and then back to OC at multiple different teams (Detroit, SF, Chicago) built offenses that were pretty low ranked in points scored, except for one year: 2003.

    Specifically, Martz's offenses from 2002 onwards when he could no longer rely on Warner were ranked 23,2,19,11,21,16,22,21,17. That's pretty damning that both as HC and as OC his offenses were on average ranked 17th in the league once Warner could not be relied on. And other players like Faulk and Holt were also there for many years after Warner was replaced by Bulger. In general, the offense became fairly average with Bulger in there.

    So while many things changed, I think by far the best hypothesis for why the Rams had a mini-dynasty from 1999-2001 and an elite offense during that time is Warner playing in top form.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018
  40. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    '99 new OC Mike Martz, who then became the HC the following year.
     
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