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***THE Official Atlanta (chop chop) Braves (chop chop) 2013 Thread *********

Discussion in 'Other Sports Forum' started by unluckyluciano, Mar 31, 2013.

  1. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    I like the deal, 16M for a (if he keeps it up) very solid 1st basemen is a bargain....years arent a problem either......he is what 23-24?
     
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  2. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's 24. He's going to at a minimum be a pretty good hitter and his ceiling seems like it could be fairly high.

    If Kimbrel wins arbitration and gets 9M a year I bet they'll move him. They don't have the kind of payroll that can handle paying a closer 9M. Even if he is out of this world good.
     
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  3. Mainge

    Mainge Season Ticket Holder

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    It's pretty much impossible for that Freeman to be the real Freeman. The only difference between 2012 Freeman and 2013 Freeman is his BABIP. His walk rate was virtually the same and his power was slightly down. If he's able to reproduce his 2013 numbers, it's because he improved his walk rate and/or power.

    I personally think it's not a very good contract for Atlanta.
     
  4. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    I agree with you about his production being misleading in 2013 but I don't think it's a bad contract per say and one of the big benefits is that it ends when he's 31 so they didn't commit to any of his decline years. I also think you have to factor in the poor production of 1B in the MLB and the lack of really good 1B prospects in the minors too.

    I wouldn't have signed Freeman to the deal as I would have been happy to go year to year with him, mainly because of his lack of power. I think his numbers are closer to his career slash line of .285/.358/.466/.825 which is probably a 12 to 14 million dollar player nowadays when you factor in defense. We also need to remember the guy is only 23 years old so it is possible he grows into more power as he ages.
     
  5. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LOL, sure.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/p...freeman-signs-extension?ex_cid=espnapi_public

    But I'm sure his average on pitches to the outer half is going to drop back down to .181.... His power is good enough as long as he continues to improve as a hitter.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    It's the length, not the dollars, that bothers me, he is a solid player, just think he is more a .280/25 hr/80 rbi type of player who plays a good first base

    You win with players like him, the problem is, if something goes sideways, health wise for example that is a huge debt on the books for a long time
     
  7. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's not really as misleading as it's made out to be. He was putting the same amount of balls on the outer half of the plate in play in 2013 as he was in 2012 which certainly contributed to the increase in BABIP. On paper yeah it looks like he was getting a lot luckier on balls he put in play. In reality there were a lot of outer half balls that he was trying to pull in 2012 for outs that he was going the other way with for hits in 2013. [an average of .335 vs .181 from that part of the plate, pretty significant.] You can live with the power if he does a lot of other things well.
     
  8. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Health is always a risk with a big contract. No doubt. I'm not worried about the RBIs, I think he'll continue to produce around 100 because of how good he's become at going the other way when he's being pitched outside. He was .443 last season with RISP. That will come down some for sure but I don't think that will drop the RBIs to 80. He did miss a few weeks early last season and still drove in about 108.

    With the new contract he needs to quit trying to do those splits all the time over at 1st...
     
  9. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    That's actually my main problem with Freeman, he's a 1st baseman without a lot of power. Ideally I want my corner players to hit with power and get on base a lot, which are two of Freeman's weaknesses. Again as I stated if you look at the 1B in the MLB there is a lack of depth there and with offense in the MLB down across the board, you absolutely can live with Freeman as your 1B, as he's in the top 10 of MLB in that position.

    I do believe Freeman's 2013 was misleading because his numbers in 2012 compared to 2013 are nearly identical except the BABIP which raised his slash line. That's not to say Freeman sucks or isn't a good player though, it's just that he got a boost or was a bit "lucky" last year. I don't think he'll bat .371 when he makes contact again but that doesn't mean he's can't still bring value, as he does hit a lot of line drives.

    I guess what I'm trying to say is let's all just sit back and see what he does in 2014. If I were a betting man I'd probably say his slash line won't be as good as it was in 2013 but it will be slightly better than 2012 with his other numbers similar to his career.
     
  10. Mainge

    Mainge Season Ticket Holder

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    I'm not sure what you think you're proving but what I said is completely factual.

    Maybe Freddie Freeman becomes the first player ever to sustain a .371 BABIP but I seriously doubt it.
     
  11. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    His line was raised by his improved ability to hit pitches on the outer half of the plate. If you watched him play regularly you could see that he became adept at hitting pitches the other way. That's why his BABIP went up and that's why his avg with RISP was really good. I'm not saying those averages won't dip but this idea that he just did things the same way as in 2012 and got incredibly lucky is borderline ridiculous. It's easy to come to that conclusion if you just looked at last year's BABIP and compared it the previous years' and left it at that.
     
  12. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    How is it ridiculous to think that his numbers got a bump up from a high BABIP? I'm not saying he did or didn't improve with going the other way but he literally did nothing differently in 2012 to 2013 terms of walking, hitting for power, striking out, etc. His balls in play % from 2012 to 2013 was the same too so I do think its fair to say he did get a bit lucky in terms of balls hitting the grass instead of gloves. Although his line drive rate did go up by 7% so that is another reason why his BA spiked up.

    And I pay no attention to BA with RISP as those are usually a SSS and vary from year to year but ultimately in the end they're usually pretty close to the player's career slash line.

    Again I'm not trying to put the guy down or anything but when nothing changes except a .076 change in BABIP I don't think it's ridiculous to question that player. I mean stuff like this happens every year in the MLB. What about Chris Johnson? Do we think he's going to bat nearly .400 when he puts the ball in play next year? He had very similar stats in 2012 and 2013. There's nothing wrong with a player or team being lucky. Just because a player/team gets lucky doesn't mean they aren't good. Baseball is a very hard game and even the best players benefit from luck each year.

    But I guess we'll just see what Freeman does this coming year and in the next years to see if this was a one time thing or if this is what he truly is moving forward.
     
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  13. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A bit lucky is a far cry from guaranteeing that a past season's production won't be matched because it was produced by luck. Every good player in baseball is a bit lucky.
     
  14. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Didn't I say that in my previous post?

    Look it's obvious we're not going to agree so let's just sit back and see how he does next year. If he improves on his overall numbers I will be more than happy to admit I was wrong about him.
     
  15. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    Julio Teheran locked up. Yeah buddy.
     
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  16. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    They basically gave him a raise for the rest of his arbitration time left with the team....
     
  17. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    braves extend Kimbrel.
     
  18. GreenMonster

    GreenMonster New Member

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    Braves are killing it right now, Kimbrel, Tehran locked up cheaply and Freeman taken care of well. The 1st two are no brainers and the Freeman deal unless he gets hurt probably won't hurt the Braves as much him continuing to grow and outplaying the deal.
     
  19. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Add in Simmons too.....

     
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  20. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    yup. Ballin!
     
  21. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Braves just extended the hot dog vendor that covers sections 4 & 5.

    Seriously good for them locking up these guys long deal.
     
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  22. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    :lol:....
     
  23. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    lucky extends his foot up ray finkles ***.
     
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  24. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Then Ray Finkle simply extends :shifty:
     
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  25. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Yeah, I got nothing for either of these posts. Well done boys.
     
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  26. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I love the Simmons deal. Not a bad amount for the best defensive shortstop in baseball. I doubt they're done yet. I imagine they want to close these signings out by getting something done with Mike Minor and Kris Medlen.
     

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