I would draft one that early every opportunity I got until I found the guy I was comfortable would take me to a Super Bowl.
Matt Ryan was a far more polished prospect that Russell or Vince Young. Let's not talk nonsense here. And the whole point is that a GM or personnell guy is supposed to have a vision for how to build a franchise, not necessarily picking the best player for Day 1, but the best player for years to come. Ireland and PArcells for that matter lacked that vision. I undersdtand hindsight is 20/20 but these guys are paid to have FORESIGHT. To see beyond the immediate and have a vision for what the team will look like in 3 or 4 years. This is why Dimitroff is a far better GM than Ireland. atlanta was the last etam that should have taken a QB in the first round. They were coming off the Vick disaster and had traded Schaub. If any team needed a safe, non-controversial pick, it was them. They could have easily gotten away with Dorsey/Chad Henne and no one would have complained. But Dimitriff had a vision for what the team would be in 5 years, and he saw that Matt Ryan was a better chance to get to that vision, being a QB. And he was right. Now they are a perennial playoff team, loaded with talent and will break through one of these days. Five years in, they're a Super Bowl contender. 5 years in we're starting over again.
Today? Sure. Under the old CBA? Good luck trying as you wouldn't have been able to afford the second opportunity
I want to criticize the typical mentality from back then where everyone was so reluctant to take a QB that high and pay him that much money unless he was "can't miss"...because let's face it, that "can't miss" guy at that position is the end of a rainbow that you're never going to find. But then Andrew Luck came along and it's like, oh. That's what they were looking for.
I never considered Ryan a boom or bust pick. I would say he was going to be a distributor with a chance to become elite. I think that's what he has been and still is. He has good regular season stats b/c he's a distributor but he has yet to show the ability to elevate or carry the team around him. I think distributors get exposed in the playoffs, b/c their teams need a QB that can make the play when things go poorly (better opponents make that happen more often). I don't see that as all that rare. I believe that guys like Henne or a Ryan Fitzpatrick have the talent to be just as productive given the same surroundings. Conversely when the team around them is bad or there's a revolving door in the coaching those QBs aren't productive. IMO Ryan is more talented than those two QBs, but not so much so that he would/could elevate/carry a team. Personally, I wouldn't use my first overall pick on that. My decision on whether or not to use that first overall on him would be based on my estimation of how high his odds of becoming elite are. I didn't see them as all that high, at least not relative to Long. I saw Long as nearly a lock all-pro. I thought he was going to be very good - great. I saw Ryan good with a chance to be great. And this was back before the rookie salary cap. One of my guidelines is that you should not pay great money to good players.
Indeed let's not. He might have been more "polished" but he was very much considered a high risk by literally every (self-proclaimed) expert. It wasn't like they were looking at an Andrew Luck type of prospect. Or maybe they just didn't believe Matt Ryan would turn out all that great and that a #1 overall selection (especially under the old CBA system) was supposed to be a franchise cornerstone from day one. Yes, they obviously didn't recognize Ryan's talent back then (then again, so didn't most people who scream now and loved the Long pick back then) but that's hardly enough evidence for a lack of vision.
I don't think he has to be "can't miss". I just have to have a strong enough feeling about his odds of potentially being great. For example, I don't see RT as can't miss, but I would have had no problem taking him first overall (in a draft without Luck) b/c I had a higher opinion of his chances of realizing elite QB status.
Well, I think there's can't miss and then there's can't miss. Personally, I would have drafted Stafford, Eli, Rivers or Roethlisberger in a heartbeat. Russell or Young I wouldn't have touched with a pole; not in round 1, not in round 2. Ryan, to me, fell somewhere in between, like Sanchez, for example. Very high upside, but I can see why someone wouldn't take the risk back when there was a serious downside to it.
I just had those guys rated different then if that's where Matt Ryan was for you. I had him more or less in line with Stafford. At the time there was a big debate about Matt Ryan versus John Beck. I had John Beck as a 1st round talent that fell to the 2nd round mostly because of age, and I wasn't really any less high on him based on 2007 which was just an abysmal year all the way around, so I was still about as high on John Beck as I would be a 1st round QB. But I still had Matt Ryan as a categorically better football player.
Cut out the blah blah stuff and this was left. Why argue. Yea yea just fire him that will get us to the Super Bowl he is the problem.
But the irony of that was that they drafted a quarterback in the 2nd round whose "boom" was thought to be much less likely and much more limited in magnitude. If they had drafted a quarterback in the 1st round who busted, and a player in the 2nd round at any position who did as well as the average 2nd-round pick, their record between then and now would've probably been no better or worse than it was with Jake Long in the 1st and Chad Henne in the 2nd. What that means is that you ought to take the chance on a boom or bust quarterback, because you aren't winning until you get a good one. Take the QB in the early 1st, hope he pans out, and try to get a quality guy in the 2nd as well. Don't skip over the QB when you're drafting #1 overall.
Back then, I seem to remember that it was mostly about Jake Long vs. Chris Long with Vernon Gholston (oh my) a distand third. For all the talk about Matt Ryan today and how much they messed that selection up, I curiously can't recall too many people being seriously POed when Ryan was out of the race pretty early.
I just don't believe the odds of the boom were high enough to justify it. And after four years, I haven't seen anything that has changed my mind. I believe that if we had taken Ryan (and Atlanta had taken Long/Henne) we'd be having the same conversation except people would be saying we should have taken Henne b/c of all the regular season stats he put up.
What you cut out as "blah blah" were facts. You might make a damn fine political attack ad writer, since you have no problem cutting up a 3 paragraph argument to two lines that have no relation to one another. Bravo, you're a hack.
But of course the little slice of reality that argues against that is that Chad Henne is holding a clipboard, and nobody is beating down Jacksonville's door to trade for him.
I'm sorry, I know you were a scout back in the day but this is just complete hogwash. Chad Henne in any systems would not have 95 TDs against 46 INTs. It's a complete fanatsy based on nothing. Mike Mularkey was a clown here when he had no QB and no surrounding talent. So suddenly he is a system genius and Henning is a complete moron. No, Ryan is a far better player than Henne. Any suggestion otherwise is complete and utter nonsense that serves no purpose other than a ridiculous attempt to prop up Jeff Ireland. Whatever the reason so many posters have for wanting to propr him up is their business, but you don't get to throw away the facts. Matt Ryan has taken his teams to the playoffs 3 times and has never finsihed below .500. Our team, anchored by yes, a great left tackle, has been to the playoffs ocne and has finsihed below.500 3 of the last 4 seasons. If we had taken Matt Ryan and done everything else the same (traded for Marshall, Bush, etc.) we would be a solid playoff team today
I'll say this: If we had taken Matt Ryan and he would've performed like the Atlanta Ryan performed, then a thread arguing that he was "not great" or "average" would be in the out of bounds pretty darn fast
Yes Matt Ryan would never had any issue stepping aside for the wildcat to make it 3rd and long every game or had issues with Sparanos game management skillz or the OC calling the game he would have been a super hero that is a fact. Right. There still the same results? Just a bunch of as you say hog wash between Matt Ryan is a damn good player and That's why Ireland needs to go.
No because the overall point was about Ireland's lack of vision in building a team. Whatever, not worth arguing with you.
Statistically, Matt Ryan wasn't much better than Matt Moore last season. He certainly hasn't had a season that has been as good as Chad Pennington's 2008. There is a chance we would be a playoff team right now if we had drafted Matt Ryan. But had we started Matt Moore every game instead of Chad Henne, I think we would have the same chances.
Well, then Ross will grant Philbin his wish at the end of the year, whatever that decision may be.do you think Ross will side with Philbin?, because you know he's gonna pose the question, "do you want to move forward with Jeff"
Sorry Raf, I have to agree with Shou here. I think the reality is that Chad Henne just isn't very good and was never going to be very good. If there are people that thought he could be an effective QB or even could've been an effective QB, then surely a team like Arizona would have or would be looking to pick him up. Blame development all you want. GMs and coaches take chances on players they believe they could fix that were poorly developed. Nobody did this with Chad Henne.
Matt Ryan has made the playoffs 3 of his 4 years. He's been successful against any schedule thrown at him. No offense to Chad and what he did. But in 2009, when the schedule got just a little harder and his defense didn't come to play quite like the year prior, he was 0-3. Let's not forget this.
Oh sweet lord. Here is Penny's 2008 stat line 321 of 476 67.4 completion % 3,653 19 Td 7 INT 97.4 ratine Here's Matt Ryan's 2010 (his 2011 is just as good) 357 of 571 62.5 % 3,705 yards 28 TD 9 INT 91.0 rating Ryan threw almost 100 passes than Penny and only had two more interceptions. He managed to best his TD number, which is kind of the point of football, by 11. None of this is to denigrate Penny in any way. He was a great player and I liked him quite a bit, but considering he only lasted one season for us, and that should have beenr elatively obvious that he wasn't a long term solution, then give me Ryan any day of the week.
And adamprez2003 was just about the only one around here (err, FH) beating the Matt Ryan drum back then. That's why we all remember him for it.
In the end I suspect we have Parcells's grandiosity to thank for passing on a franchise QB with the #1 pick overall, thinking he could get one in the 2nd round.
Wins and losses are very closely related to the overall team’s performance. Football is a true team sport, in which every facet of the game must be sharp for a team to succeed. Quarterbacks may be the most important players on the field, but they are not the only ones who matter.
You apparently don't remember me for it, because I was slamming on that drum right along with him. So was WVdolphan if I remember correctly.
Exactly. Which is why Ryan Tannehill wouldn't stop me at all from drafting Matt Barkley if we had that opportunity.
There was nothing boom or bust about Matt Ryan. He was a relatively safe pick as far as QB's are concerned. Matt Ryan was more of a lower ceiling, higher floor type of player. The exact opposite of a boom or bust player.
To me that would depend on the development of Tannehill. With the lack of playmakers on offense/secondary and with some poor luck, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Tannehill is progressing to a point of looking like a Super Bowl quality quarterback AND Miami having the first pick in the draft. What the Dolphins could get for Barkley could really help the team.
