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The Miami Dolphins don’t need to make a splash, they need to be smart

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Sceeto, Feb 12, 2020.

  1. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    https://phinphanatic.com/2020/02/11/miami-dolphins-dont-need-make-splash-need-smart/

    "Miami’s target for the future is not this year but two years from now when their draft picks are starting to show growth. This is when Miami should make their free agent a splash. They will need to keep the cap under control for those years.

    This doesn’t mean that the Dolphins shouldn’t spend money. They should. They should extend where they can or is needed and carry over what they don’t use into next season. The Dolphins are in a marathon not a sprint and they need to be cautious within the market. Smart is better than a spree and paying for someone they need is a lot smarter than buying the shiny toy that your not sure what to do with. That was the problem with Jeff Ireland. He made the splash but as a whole, the team had no idea how to use those toys. Chris Grier needs to make sure that does not happen again."



    I pretty much agree here, but there are, at least, a couple of players at positions we should look to upgrade in FA. Of course they should look at Olinemen, but a Pass rusher or two should be considered and there are some good ones who will be on the market.

    These are a couple I would love to see them pursue.

    Shaquil Barrett, Bucs,
    45 solo tackles/19.5 sacks/6 forced fumbles/1 int

    Matthew Judon, Ravens
    43 solo tackles/9.5 sacks/4 force fumbles/0 ints

    Barrett is going to cost big bucs(no pun intended), but he could be dominate and a massive boost for the D.

    There are others good players like Ngakoue, Clowney, Fowler, etc.

    Funny how FA can always completely throw your mocks off.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I agree that the Fins focus should be on the future, and not specifically 2020, or even 2021. I think that the goal should be to open up a window starting in 2022 where the team aims to be one of the best in the AFC for three or four years starting at that point. That would mean making the most of players currently on the team like DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Xavian Howard, Jerome Baker and Christian Wilkins, while adding players in the next two drafts of course as the foundation.

    As far as free agency, I just don't grasp the idea that some have of adding guys who are going to be in their 30s once that window opens. What good does throwing tons of money at a few older players do this offseason? Does it get us from 5-11 to 8-8 one season faster? Maybe, but I don't think that it then gets us from 8-8 to 12-4 any quicker once we're there. And then all that we've accomplished long term are lower draft picks in 2021. So not a win.

    With the exception of the offensive line, which desperately needs to be fixed ASAP by any means necessary, I really don't want to see the team spend big or go hard after anyone older than about 26, or maybe 27 for a truly great player who would transform the team.
     
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  3. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    SPOT ON!!!

    They HAVE to spend some money in FA to meet salary cap requirements. There are minimums too. That said we should only be looking at players either still on their first contract with 2 yrs before expiration or FA at the end of their first contract. UFA's and a very select few RFA's. VERY select few RFA's being players who you feel are going to bring veteran LEADERSHIP as well as balling to the next level.

    Absolutely no reason to spend FA $$$ on third contract players who were released for $$$ saving reasons by their current team. If a player is going to be 30 or older when their new contract expires, be extra buyer beware. This team needs two more years to build and develop a core before being consistently competitive. Exceptions for veterans who aren't looking for big $$$ and are willing to be depth and on field and practice coaches and role players. No ego's.
     
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  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Actually, I read last month that while the Dolphins are currently one of eleven teams under the minimum spending threshold, as long as they sign all of their draft picks, that would be enough to get them over the mark. Obviously, we also want to see them sign the right players this offseason too, and to not put themselves behind the eight ball with the spending minimum next season. Apparently there are five or six clubs that do have to give up some pretty big contracts this offseason to make the number.
     
  5. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I wanna second or third whoever said no more guys over third. Until further notice, we should not be giving third contracts.

    Another thing we have to stop doing is giving contracts that end in -est. Whether they are the highest paid, highest at the position, or the highest salary of the offseason, we just gotta stop doing this.

    We wound up getting guys like Suh and Mike Wallace. Suh was great and Wallace was simply good. But the problem was, it was virtually impossible for guys like this to live up to their contracts. Guys lose a step, get hurt, and play in a less than optimal system all the time when they change teams. I am not very big at all into analytics, but I do think there should be a guy in the room doing basic statistical projections. Personally, before I sign anyone, I would have a guy run the numbers and tell me, based on what I am paying, what should I be getting statistically? Just looking at these numbers, I would have an idea if the contract is even possible to live up to. If that part of the test passes, gimme a list of the average performing guys at that contract price. I love looking at the average guys per position at a price because it gives me an idea as to what I am realistically going to get. I would then ask myself, how would I feel about dishing out this kinda salary for the names on this list. If I really liked the names on the list, I think I would move forward. If the names on the list are underwhelming, there is a good chance that this is not the deal I wanna do.

    One thing that I am hoping that we bring from the Patriots is a cap within a cap philosophy. For years, I feel like we just look at the cap and think, "We can spend X amount of money next year." The Patriots seem to have positional values for each position. If there is a player on their team that his hitting free agency, and they are due to make more than the allotted value, they wish them the best and let them move on. The media and fans have scorned them, but they haven't been in cap hell in twenty years. Again, this is where I think an analytics guy could actually be helpful. I would be asking them to look for "sweet spots" in positional salary. Lemme give you guys an example. Suppose you are looking at a LT. Let's say a primo 2 sack per season guy is available. I would want to know what is his price compared to the guy who gives up 6 sacks per year. Then the million dollar question becomes, "Is there a sweet spot where you got a lot of bang for your buck?" Instead of looking to sign the best guys. By doing this, the money saved would result in more "good" guys on your roster.

    *Footnote of hypocrisy - I would be willing to overpay for the offensive line. It has been such a problem for so long that in my mind, it would be worth it to just have this addressed especially since Tua will likely be our guy, and his health is paramount.
     
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  6. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Avoid Judon.
     
  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I think that you avoid those "-est" contracts until you're in place where you're already a powerful team ready to make a run. Then, if you have the cap space and the right guy is there to be had, you go for it. But in the early stages of a rebuild? No way, totally. You want to make sure that the first two of three years of a contract like that are maximized in putting the team over the top.
     
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  8. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    A big reason the Patriots don't have tons of cap issues is Brady playing well under value and reworking to team friendly deals.

    Without something of that nature, you look at Rookie QB contracts as being of immense value.
     
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  9. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Tom Brady probably saved them $10-$15 mil per year. Some players did take less to play with a winner and contend. Hopefully, we get to that point.

    That being said, I do think we get some discount that we probably cannot fully grasp. First of all, we probably won't ever really know who took less on their NFL salary to make more total salary due to a lack of state income tax. Also, how many guys do you think have taken less to live in Miami? At the end of the day, I just don't see people's first choice being Cincy, Detroit, Buffalo, etc. In fact, I am curious as to how many people in general have taken less to not live in a cold weather city.
     
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  10. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    the problem is the 25-26 year olds that are actually good players are coveted in FA so they'll be expensive, guys like Conklin and Chris Jones are 25, Ngakou is 24, Justin Simmons and Arik Armstead are only 26. The good thing is Miami is an attractive destination and we've got more cap space than anyone... but if these are the guys you wanna sign you better be okay with breaking the bank.
     
  11. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Agree! Be smart with the cap space! We don't need to revisit the past.
     

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