1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

The Great Train Robbery 2.0

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Sep 2, 2019.

  1. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    715
    642
    93
    Jan 2, 2016
    I am not gonna lie, I have been thinking about the blockbuster trade since it happened, and today, I started thinking about it from the Texans point of view. I have come to the conclusion that Bill O'Brien is out of his league as a GM, and his moves reeked of desperation.

    Let's just back the train up and examine the events leading to the deal.

    The Dolphins and the Texans have a deal in place that is in all likelihood is not as rich as the final trade. The Dolphins have met with and are set to acquire Clowney, and by all estimates have a fair deal in place.

    However, Clowney is not assuaged by his meeting with the Dolphins' brass, and uses what leverage he has by threatening not to report. The Dolphins sour, and the ideal trade dies.

    O'Brien is not thinking clearly. He has a great pass rusher on his team, and could likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick from him if he simply plays Clowney. Clowney could still miss games, but he will be there for the home stretch of the season to accrue a year of service. Instead, he goes ahead and trades for a 3rd round pick (which he would get anyway albeit a year later). They wind up getting a former first round bust in Mingo and a situational pass rusher. But it actually gets worse. They also agreed to pay 1/2 of Clowney's salary to not be on the team. Objectively, it seems like they would be better off just playing the season out with Clowney.

    Now, one might think that at this time, the trade for Tunsil is dead, but again O'Brien is not thinking clearly. Take a minute and think about the situation. On the last game of the preseason Tunsil was mum about his status. Clearly he was expected to be traded. Clearly, Tunsil had to feel unwanted. Now ask yourself, at this time, "Who has the leverage?" The Dolphins have a player on their team that they basically was told he was unwanted. They have to deal with the ramifications of the trade that never was. The Dolphins SHOULD have been the team motivated to get rid of Tunsil at this point. However, O'Brien pushed so hard that he made the proverbial "offer you can't refuse."

    Now let's look at the compensation. 2 1sts, a 2nd, Davenport, and Bademosi for Stills, Tunsil, 4th, and 6th.

    The Dolphins got more for Tunsil than the Raiders got for Mack. I would think that most of us on this board would swap Tunsil for Mack straight up in a heartbeat. Just to give you guys an idea of how much we got, ask yourself, "Aside from a QB, how many players in the league would you be willing to give up the Dolphins' haul in order to get?" I agree that there may be some players, but the amount is very, very small.

    The Texans had to know that Stills was no lock to even make the team, and yet Grier was able to get value from essentially a throwaway player.

    Now maybe there is a huge Tunsil fan on this board still shaking his head. Let me throw one other point here that shows his level of desperation. How do you make this deal without a long term contract in place? The biggest winner in this entire trade might be Tunsil's agent. Aside from quarterbacks, Tunsil has more leverage in contract negotiations than any other player in the league. Realistically, he should ask for QB money. Based on what they gave up, they have to sign him.

    All of this feels weirdly reminiscent of Jeff Ireland's last year in Miami where he spent every dollar he could in free agency. Bill O'Brien is going for bust. Maybe he knows if he doesn't have a deep playoff run, he might be done in Houston. If you are the Texans, this has to work. Anything less than a deep playoff run is a disappointment. If for some reason the Texans underachieve and miss the playoffs, the move is catastrophic.
     
    Bumrush, resnor and jdallen1222 like this.
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,160
    8,057
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    This quote is basically all that's going on IMO. Let's first of all remember that the Texans actually don't officially have a GM and split GM duties among 4 people, which basically means that the coach, Bill O'Brien, has a ton more influence than he otherwise would have. So in some sense yes Bill O'Brien is calling the shots as "GM" but not officially and that could change in 2020.

    So what's happening now is just a power play IMO. O'Brien is trying to keep himself employed not just as HC but also dangling himself for the GM job that the Texans apparently are trying to fill in 2020 with Caserio, whose contract with NE runs out then:
    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...odox-decision-for-vacant-general-manager-job/

    And if O'Brien is fired because the move doesn't work out? Well.. it's not his responsibility anymore.
     
    Bumrush, tirty8 and KeyFin like this.
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,991
    7,715
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    There's simply no way to be upset as a Miami fan UNLESS you're talking about 2019 football. This was a robbery of epic proportions even though they got two very solid contributors that should start for a long time. What if Tunsil gets hurt this season though? Then it's a complete nightmare scenario....you still have to give him a massive extension even though he might not be the guy anymore. It's a true gamblers mentality and the only one who wins here is Tunsil and his former team.

    I mean, I hope Tunsil ends up being a ten year pro-bowler for them...I really do. But there was just no way you can justify paying that much for a top lineman- thank God they gave it to us and not another team.
     
    Bumrush and resnor like this.
  4. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    967
    874
    93
    Sep 12, 2015
    You're joking right? They won this trade by a landslide. They basically gave us a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders at the end of the day. We received nothing of true value.
     
  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    72,138
    43,054
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Are you missing the 2 1st round picks and the 2nd rounder?
     
    Bumrush, resnor and tirty8 like this.
  6. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

    2,413
    1,125
    113
    May 31, 2013
    Plantation, Fl
    Tunsil has Houston by the balls now and Miami got everything they could out of him before paying him. 2019 will suck but the spring on this team is coiling hard.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    629
    537
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    What the Dolphins are doing is making sure that if their tank job doesn’t enable them to draft high enough to get the player they want, they have the draft pick capital to trade up for that player.

    Ask yourself if Bill Belichick likes the way the Dolphins are being run right now. I suspect he doesn’t, and that’s a good thing.
     
    resnor likes this.
  8. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,100
    2,916
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    The common valuation is that a 1st rounder next year has the same value as a second rounder this year.
    By that valuation the compensation we received for Tunsil is equivalent to a second rounder and 2 third rounders this year.
     
  9. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

    2,413
    1,125
    113
    May 31, 2013
    Plantation, Fl
    What's the value of a 2nd rounder after the pick has been made? This is non sense.
     
    Bumrush, texanphinatic and resnor like this.
  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,100
    2,916
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Count me as among those who don’t think we fleeced the Texans.

    Getting a cornerstone contributor in the draft on average takes three high round picks. So we traded away a cornerstone contributor for three high round picks that are deferred to next year and the year after.

    I haven’t run the figures but my perception is that teams with a high number of choices in the top 3 rounds whiff on their picks more often than teams with their regular number of picks. The only reason why people remember the Herschel Walker trade as the Great Train Robbery is because Jimmy Johnson hit the jackpot with picks he used., most notable Emmit Smith, Darren Woodson and Russel Maryland. But there are plenty of teams with massive draft capital who whiffed with the majority of their picks.

    If it is true that teams with a lot of draft capital whiff more often than usual I suspect it would be because the teams are thinking in terms of hitting home runs, rather than batting for average.
     
    Tin Indian likes this.
  11. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    72,138
    43,054
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    I think that valuation only counts before that year's draft. So before this last draft, yes when the pick is technically 2 drafts away.
     
  12. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    1,788
    875
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    At this point we have no choice but to get on board or check out. These guys have completely wiped the slate clean with our cap and stockpiled assets for the next two years drafts. With the likelihood that we will be the worst team in the NFL for at least the next year, this picks will be very high picks.

    We’re either gonna look back at this as the time we cut all the bull**** and finally built a championship caliber team the RIGHT way or these two guys set our franchise back 5+ years. If its the former, then the days of overpaying free agents, making shi**y trades and staying in 6-9 win purgatory are gone. If it’s the latter, then there’s no way to trust any decision Ross makes on GM’s or coaches and start watching professional cornhole games.
     
    invid likes this.
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,219
    7,279
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Isn't it common sense that a team with more picks will miss on more than those with fewer? But your chances of landing a great player are better the more picks you have.

    And a first round pick is a first round pick. It's not a second day pick, no matter how you try to redefine it.
     
    Claymore95 likes this.
  14. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

    1,742
    626
    113
    Oct 31, 2008
    palm beach county fl
    All I can say is time will tell who got the best deal.This year the Texans will get some players they need to compete for a playoff run.We won't know what we got for a couple of years.
     
  15. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    3,742
    4,029
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    I didn't know people liked Laremy Tunsil this much.

    I understand he was a solid player but he isn't the only good Tackle in the NFL and this is a team that badly needs to find it's franchise QB.

    Keeping and re-signing Laremy Tunsil to a huge deal was an option but if finding a franchise QB is the goal, maybe Tunsil had to be sacrificed? I know I feel 1000 times better about Miami landing a good QB now that they have all those 1st round picks.

    With all the picks and money they have, I'm sure Miami can find another good LT.

    If filling a vacancy at LT is our biggest problem, we're gonna be fine.
     
    resnor, Bumrush, Fin D and 1 other person like this.
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    72,138
    43,054
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    There is middle ground.

    We need a good oline. We don't need a great one. Hell, we'll be fine with an average oline. Neither of these require paying big money for a one of the best olineman.

    In our recent past our line has been terrible.
     
    resnor likes this.
  17. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    1,788
    875
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    I think the concern people have is Tunsil was a young, up and coming top 5 LT. You trade him for draft picks so you can get a QB(which we would have likely had the top pick anyway) and try to find another LT. The hit rate is what 20-40% on first round picks. If we had cap issues then it would have been more palatable.

    If they can leverage those 3 picks into 2 or even 3 good players then this was a no brainer. I don’t think that many people have that level confidence in this organization or Grier.
     
  18. Losferwords

    Losferwords Member

    54
    44
    18
    Sep 1, 2012
  19. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

    21,110
    9,861
    113
    Jan 14, 2008
    Alexandria, VA
    Good points. I'm really not sure how much blame Grier does or doesn't deserve for past drafts, but the fact remains he's a holdover from the Ireland days and this team has been bad at acquiring talent and even worse at retaining the talent they do acquire. What makes anyone think that is going to suddenly change?

    If you want to hold onto hope, you could argue this team's struggles are based mostly on the lack of a franchise QB and if they can hit there and find a franchise player in Tua or someone else, all the rest will fall into place regardless of the GM calling the shots.
     
  20. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    10,041
    3,249
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Top 5 LT would not rank 50th in run blocking.. he was great at keeping the quarterback clean, but his run blocking was average to poor.. if we are going to pay premium price for LT, it better be a guy that excels in both..

    So we somehow flipped him for two first rounders and a 2nd rounder... a guy that came into Davie with a gas mask on... i think we did well here..
     
  21. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    1,788
    875
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    I think we could both agree that a 4th year player who’s 25 years old would likely improve his technique and blocking. He’s already an elite pass blocker which most teams prioritize in today’s pass happy NFL.
     
  22. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    26,991
    36,363
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Laremy Tunsil isn't an elite pass protector yet, either. PFF had him rated as the 17th-best pass protector in 2018. He had some flashes of looking like he could make the jump, but it was just that-flashes. He also had instances where he got absolutely roughed up(the Jaguars game, for example). He's not a rookie, either- he's going into his 4th NFL season. You can make reasonable assumptions at this point about what kind of player he's going to be professionally.

    IMO they traded away a guy whose career prospects are probably capped pretty close to Branden Albert, not Joe Thomas.
     
    Fin D and KeyFin like this.
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,991
    7,715
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    To b fair, his first year was at guard and he did well in run blocking and pass protection. Part of that was Albert guiding him but still....he's pretty solid for a 2-year tackle.
     
  24. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,996
    3,634
    113
    Dec 9, 2012
    Grier now has unadulterated control over the NFL draft, we don't have to splice which selections he was a part of under Hickey and Tannenbaum, we just have to wait to see how 2019, 2020, and 2021 bears itself out.
     
    Galant likes this.
  25. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,100
    2,916
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Consider this: Olivier Vernon and Ja’wuan James when they left the dolphins became the highest paid players in the league at their respective positions. There was an active bidding war being paid with real money by real NFL GMs for these players. Yet the author of that piece does not consider them to be draft hits.

    Therefore I treat that article as mostly a fan being salty.
     
  26. Losferwords

    Losferwords Member

    54
    44
    18
    Sep 1, 2012
    The bottom line is Grier has been part of a FO for over a decade that has been substandard... to absolve him of responsibility is pure folly. He may not have had final say but the freaking draft reports the GM's were basing their decisions on were from HIS scouts.

    Given his track record, I think it's far more likely he blows this then hits it out of the park.
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

    72,138
    43,054
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Final say is all you can judge on because we don't have access to the scouting reports.

    If you know a guy doesn't have final say, you cannot hold him accountable unless you have those reports.

    There's been times in other jobs, where I was right, but my boss took a different approach. Has that never happened to you?
     
    Galant likes this.
  28. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    11,454
    7,032
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    A few pundits brought out an interesting historical point and that was the Jake Long/Matt Ryan draft. At the time Grier was Director of College Scouting underneath Jeff Ireland and so saw it all play out. The Dolphins took and kept a good Left Tackle instead of QB Matt Ryan, and looking back now one might wonder how things would have turned had the Dolphins opted for the QB over the LT. Of course, it could be they didn't see Ryan as good, and all of this is just conjecture, but could that "lesson" be in Grier's mind? That is, it's better to gain and spend picks trying to find a franchise QB even at the cost of a long-term LT? Two first round picks is ammo. He might miss, but it's ammo. And if he doesn't miss, if he hits a franchise QB, then all of this discussion will be academic. And if he keeps the LT, but misses on a QB due to lack of ammo, then that will be seen as a failure and not 'wisdom'.
     
  29. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

    2,413
    1,125
    113
    May 31, 2013
    Plantation, Fl

    Never forget.
     

Share This Page