Again though you need to factor in both the years of team control and salary control. With a prospect like Kelly, the team has him under control for 6 years, and 3 of those years are the major league minimum. With Buchholz you only have 3 years of control left and he's going to start to make money through arbitration. A team like San Diego, who will be in rebuilding mode once Gonzalez leaves (and really should be in rebuilding mode now anyway), having Kelly for those 6 years is important. With Buchholz, he'll be with the team during the rebuilding years and once the team is ready to compete he'll be gone. To think that you could simply flip Buchholz for a better package is both risky and really who knows. I understand the risk of trading for prospects is great but let's just say you trade for Buchholz and he has a few bad years or even gets hurt during the year the Padres are trying to trade him you'd get nothing in return for him. Plus who's to say that Buchholz will net a better package of players? Who's to say that Kelly won't be better than whoever Buchholz nets them. There's just too many factors involved. I'm pretty confident that if Gonzalez gets dealt to Boston, Clay Buchholz won't be going to San Diego in return.
And that is how you alienate a Franchise from it's fans, a small market team actually counts on the gate to do more than purchase the owner a new jet, it has a direct effect on the team's bottom line as cable deals and radio deals are not as lucrative for a small market club. If you give away the Franchise for some dude(s) who more than likely will never be as good, or play in the Bigs for a couple of seasons, if they make it at all, guess what? Empty seats don't buy tickets. Bucholtz is a mostly proven commodity, it would make far more sense to land something over a "maybe down the road in 2 yrs" especially for a team that had a tremendous problem scoring runs.
Don't you think there's more harm in continuous turn over of the roster? Wouldn't fans be more upset having Buchholz for max 3 years and then he leaves for free agency or gets traded during that 3 year time period which you suggest is the reason to trade for him in the first place? Because in your scenarios Buchholz isn't sticking around the team for any long period of time. Isn't it smarter to build up your fan base by having players stick around for awhile? With Kelly you have him under control for at least 6 years. That way he has a chance to win people over, because let's face it there's no fan base in San Diego right now. The last home game of the year and they're fighting for a playoff spot and they only draw 29,400 fans to the park. Obviously it's better than no fans but far from a sell out. And let's be real for a minute, this season was a complete surprise by that team and it is very unlikely even with Gonzalez they win 90 games again next year, they should be rebuilding. Their farm system is in the bottom half of the league, so by the time they build it up and start to produce good major league players (because besides from Latos, Gonzalez, Heath Bell and maybe Chase Headley there's not a lot of real talent in the bunch that could bring back nice players in return so they're going to have to produce from within) Buchholz will be long gone by the time that happens.
I know its early...but an Ellsbury and Buchholz for Adrian & 1 low level minor league body sure seems like a win/win ala fair and balanced trade to get the deal done. 3yrs of Buch is better than 1 yr of AG. If SD is nervous then get Kelly involved as well, but in the end its same/same when it comes to players exceeding contract terms....they get traded or walk if team doesn't sign them long term early (like TB). To be fair, Jacoby & Clay help immediately, Casey is still probably 2 years away from MLB rotation. SD will not be taken advantage of, especially since SD FO knows Sox FO and system depth/talent so well. But packaging a less than wanted Jacoby and a solid name and SP in Clay to land the 1B of the future for SOX, with a lower level farm hand would be a win/win and should make both sides feel secure in the move.
I can't see how just Buchholz and Ellsbury gets that trade done. Plus again I don't see the Red Sox trading Buchholz. Who steps in from him in the rotation? They're not going to sign any free agent starting pitchers (especially with the best FA pitcher on the market after Lee is Pavano) so it would be a huge hole in the rotation with the uncertainly of Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka. It would make the Sox worse. If Buchholz has to be in the deal I say no, sign a stop gap 1B/3B for a year and go hard for Gonzalez next year.
You act as if all prospects fail but the truth is, certain prospects are more likely to pan out than others. If the GM trades AG for a bunch of high ceiling 18 year old rookie leaguers, than yes, he's a moron. But they key is to trade for multiple major league or near major league ready prospects. Guys who dominate AA or AAA are much more likely to succeed than younger guys who are lower on the organizational ladder. Look at the list of prospects who came from AAA this year and succeeded. Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Jason Heyward, Strasburg, Buster Posey, Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Carlos Santana, etc. The list is extensive. Bucholtz wouldn't help San Diego much. He'd making more than AG in a few years and gone after that.
Well that may be the case.....but from what side do you not see Buch & Ells for AG not getting it done? You think SD passes on that?
I think both sides would pass on that. More so San Diego than Boston. Remember Ellsbury is hitting arbitration for the first time this year and his agent is Boras. There's no way Ellsbury signs a long term deal with San Diego without hitting free agency. It would be a 3 year rental and wouldn't make sense for them. But I also can't see how the Sox would deal their 2nd best pitcher even for Gonzalez, it weakens their team big time with the hole in rotation. I just don't see the Sox trading Buchholz without having a suitable replacement in place already (i.e. another pitcher via seperate trade or signing Cliff Lee which isn't going to happen). I think San Diego would want Casey Kelly, Jed Lowrie, Anthony Rizzo and Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick for Gonzalez. I think that's probably the fairest offer for both sides but one I don't think the Sox would agree to.
Sanchez, Strasburg, Posey were all high draft picks ( I think) but the problem is, in MLB for those 3, there will be 25 other #1 picks who just do not pan out. Trust me on that one, I've seen the padres have #1 overall picks on several occasions, and take players who should have been sure fire major leaguers, and they turn into Sean Burroughs or Khalil Greene. So you peddle the Franchise player, and only power hitter, for a handful of nothing, then wonder why fans do not come out to ballgames? I'm curious to see how the ownership group handles it, as the principle owner is a Fmr agent, and a minority owner is Troy Aikman, they understand you need stars to draw fans. A few years is not right now, AG is a .300/30Hr/100 Rbi and gold glover, you give that up for Jed Lowrie?
Kevin Towers' strong suit wasn't building up the farm system. The Padres have made numerous drafting mistakes in the past decade. Matt Bush over Verlander is a big one right there. But Hoyer was left with little to nothing in the farm system he needs to build it up. One superstar isn't going to bring people to the ballpark, hell Gonzalez is a local boy and even he can't do it. The Padres need to slowly build up and be able to produce a bunch of guys for the fan base to rally around. One trade isn't going to do it. But they have to start somewhere. Realistically at best this is a 3 to 4 year process. Plus do you really think Clay Buchholz is a franchise guy that is going to put people in the seats? I love Buchholz as much as the next Red Sox fan but he's not Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Lincecum or Roy Halladay right now. Obviously it wouldn't be a straight up trade of Lowrie for Gonzalez, but you laugh at Lowrie but if he was on the Padres right now he's probably the 3rd best hitter in that line up (he'd easily be the best option for 2B or SS too) especially when you factor in his position. Think about that one in terms of the real state of the Padre line up.
Of course they're all high draft picks and/or top prospects. If San Diego gets anything less, kiss that GM good-bye. I'm very aware of prospects and the like that don't pan out. My point is that there are ways to minimize the risk, mainly by targeting highly regarded players who have performed at the AA level and above. Guys who should contribute quickly. Of course it's not risk free. Nothing is. The mistake would be getting players who will be gone after a few years.
When small market teams strike back: Oakland A's won the bid for Japanese SS Hisashi Iwakuma for 17 million, they have 30 days to work out a deal. The Reds are also close to signing Bronson Arroyo to a 2 year extension starting next year for around 13 million per year.
Read that Uggla turned down the Marlins 4 year/$48M offer. Rumor/Expectation is Yanks offer will be 3yrs ($45-60 range) for Jeter. Actually sounds about right/necessary.
Yup. I'll be absolutely floored if he gets anything more than that in the FA market. Nice to see us attempting to spend money though.
Not exactly player news, but ESPN is cutting the cord on the Jon Miller/Joe Morgan Sunday Night Baseball tag team. They have offered a contract to Miller to do radio but they don't have a spot for Morgan. I also liked Miller's voice and he was a pretty good announcer. Morgan, besides from the obvious stuff that drove people crazy, wasn't horrible either. He never talked over Miller and for time to time actually had something useful or important to say. The thing I will miss the most is his ESPN chats and reading people openly try to bait him. Oh well I'm sure Morgan will pop up somewhere sooner or later. I think him as a GM would be interesting.
Interesting like how a car crash is interesting? He already works for the Reds in a minor capacity, my guess is he'll have a bigger role with them. BTW Ray did you read FJM week on Deadspin a couple months back? The story about Morgan naked in the Reds clubhouse last season was the funniest thing I've ever read on the internet.
According to Tim Kurkjian of ESPN, Japanese shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be posted for MLB teams this week. Nishioka, 26, led the Pacific League with a .346 batting average for the Chiba Lotte Marines this past season and accumulated 206 hits. He has reached double-digits in home runs each of the last three seasons and tallied 20 or more stolen bases in five out of his last six seasons. Nishioka is capable of playing at shortstop or second base and could attract some interest in a weak market for middle infielders. --------- Sorry, I dont buy the hype of middle infielders coming out of Japan. They all are touted as big bats.
Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston reports that the Red Sox have contacted agent Scott Boras about his client, outfielder Jayson Werth. The Red Sox are also expected to bid on free agent speedster Carl Crawford. They're hoping to get better offensively this winter while also forming a more durable roster. Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew entered 2010 as Boston's starting outfielders and each one missed time due to injury. Werth, 31, hit 296/.388/.532 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI in 554 at-bats this year. He is likely to draw bids from several high-payroll teams. -------- I fully expect Sox to land Werth!
Tigers signed SS Jhonny Peralta to a two-year, $11.25 million contract with a club option for 2013. The Tigers might be overpaying Peralta slightly, but they love his potential as a power-hitting shortstop and wanted to get the extension out of the way before what should be an active offseason in Detroit. Peralta, 28, batted just .249/.311/.392 this year but he slugged 15 home runs and lucked into 81 RBI. He remains a shortstop of mediocre value. --------- Seriously they have to be the only team that feels that way about him at SS.
I said last season I thought he'd end up there. It seems like they will be able to outbid just about everyone and I don't see the Yankees going after him.
Words can't describe the pure joy I had from reading that article. I don't think I cried as much from laughing so hard at that article. It was so out there. Oh man. It was just great. Yeah Morgan as GM would be a car crash. I'd love to hear him say they signed Player X because it reminded him of Tony Perez or he didn't care about giving Player Y a huge contract because he's a leader and has over 100 RBIs a year. And of course him putting down stats etc.
I'd rather have Crawford. Although I guess getting one or the other isn't the worse thing in the world. But I'm not really in love with the idea of getting Werth. The only positive is he's a RHB.
I doubt they'd be able to pay him or he'd go there. My guess is he's headed to LAA or Boston. Long shot is Detroit or the Yankees.
I was hoping the Braves go after Crawford, but we haven't payed big money for a LF since... well, never.
I would love that, CC is great, great player, great teammate, great in the community. Anywhere outside of the AL East the team that gets CC is instantly going to be my 2nd favorite team.
I know the Yanks #1 priority right now is to take care and wrap up their inhouse FA's then focus on external. And if history is an indication they simply tell the Agent of said FA, hey, do all your leg work you want....then come back to us at the end for final word. That said, who knows what their Defense or Bat plans are.....I would expect focus on Arms first and foremost (both SP but mostly Pen).
I actually don't think the Yankees will be in the running for him, although they said the same thing about Teixeira 2 years ago. They're in love with Brett Gardner and I think Curtis Granderson's 2nd half might have saved his NYY career. I guess they could always move Gardner to CF, Granderson to RF and put Crawford in LF and use Swisher as part of the DH rotation and let him walk the next year.
Red Sox showing interest in Justin Duchscherer: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/2148496/source-sox-show-interest-duchscherer Besides from having to learn how to spell his name, I'd be open to signing him and sticking him in the bullpen where he was very good before Oakland moved him to a SP. Edit: Duchscherer is telling teams he will only start.
I like the years, hate the money.....3 years is about right... Sources tell Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com that the Yankees are expected to offer Derek Jeter a three-year contract in the range of $45-60 million. "The Yankees are going to overpay him," said a source with intimate knowledge of the talks told Matthews. "The question is, how much are they going to overpay him?" If we're going solely on production, quite a lot at this point. But with a player like Jeter, his value in New York goes beyond statistics. According to two sources, no other team has shown interest in Jeter or called the shortstop's agent, an indication that it's a foregone conclusion a deal will eventually be worked out.
Well, if money isn't an option you have to figure CC is a CLEAR upgrade over Gardner in LF. I always thought Gardner was a fill-in until CC and/or Werth hit the market. I think that's why they added Berkman as a stop-gap for the playoffs. Who knows though, I'd think Tampa would do everything possible to try and re-sign him but it doesn't look like that's gonna happen.
Hey I agree with you but the Yankees love Gardner, absolutely love him. I didn't think Gardner would ever been more than a 4th OFer but he had a good season in 2010. That's probably the best he's going to be through as I can't really see him improving much. But he is a useful player. Like I said before if the Yankees want Crawford then Swisher would be the odd man out.
AL Gold Gloves were announced for people that care about these awards (personally I don't but it's a slow day and yes I realize the hypocrisy of this post): C- Joe Mauer 1B- Mark Teixeira 2B- Robinson Cano 3B- Evan Longoria SS- Derek Jeter OF- Carl Crawford OF- Franklin Gutierrez OF- Ichiro P- Mark Buehrle Usually the GG winners are jokes since historically they've been given to people based on their name value and hitting stats (yes I'm aware gold gloves are based on defensive but the voters apparently don't know that) but looking at the list, it's pretty solid, aside from the one obvious name that doesn't belong there but baby steps right? 8 out of 9 is solid afterall.
lol you knew he was gonna be on there no matter what...until he has a terrible, terrible season defensively, he'll still be there.
Let me know when he has a good season defensively first. Jeter will be on the list until he retires just because he's Derek Jeter and the voters don't take it seriously.
