I know this is counterintuitive for most, but I believe that too much information is toxic. There have been several studies that in predictive fields there is no benefit to additional info past the key indicators. And that after more information is added predictions become less accurate although, ironically, the predictors themselves become more confident. This isn't a comment on Williams since I haven't scouted him yet.
I was just thinking this about the combine. People are saying we'll know more after seeing Cordarrelle run. I feel like combine information muddie peoples opinions more than it should. Football tape should be the primary determinant, and the second, and third, with the combine stuff more of a "oh, and also... by the way..." type of information. We get so into hand size, shuttle times, and so on. I'ts a great way to filter out a prospect if the combine red flags something (a CB with a very bad shuttle or cone time). But less good at telling you who wil be great due to a ctahcing drill, or 40 time. Really, if Cordarrelle runs well and his stock shoots up, it'll annoy me and incline me more towards Stedman as a value pick.
I think you even get that from watching too much film. We tend to convince ourselves we're seeing things that maybe aren't there or are too occasional to be counted on as something he regularly brings to the field.
Disagree... I mentioned we should match up Patterson..K Allen and Eiffert at the combine, they all have skillsets that are different, we need to figure out who will be most impactful for our offense and most beneficial to our Qb, and who is the better athlete, we know they can all ball..There are so many things we can see to add to our evaluations that will help with accuracy..natural movement ability relative to position..body type and composition..intelligence...Natural hands..quick twitch ability..Leadership intangibles when around a group of players..confidence.. There are certain players that I don't need to see that may fall into our range, to know their gonna be great (Jordan, Richardson) but this is the 12 th pick, and under the assumption we will use that pick on an offensive skill player, I at least need to see them run around.. If your going to force me to decide without, I can do that, but why, more information is key.
If the Combine weren't important, they wouldn't have it every year. It's important. Especially with the rise in the number of juniors and redshirt sophomores declaring for the Draft (now at 65 I believe, on the way to a new record). Film on a player is not some endless river that you can go back to every time you need a drink of water. It has a finite and often highly inadequate character. Combine results are a means of calibration, and they help you put things you see on tape into a context. Front office people have the tools at their disposal to make the Combine results a little more superfluous, though. You and I and everyone commenting and thanking in this thread, do not have those tools. So the very last people that should be saying the Combine is unimportant in the evaluation, are us.
my hours spent watching college players builds up to the draft, combine and senior bowl practices are musts for me..I have good reasons why.
This.. We also don't have the advantage of individual workouts, and seeing them play games in person..big advantage for them..
True... yet (lol) too many people put too much weight in the information they have gotten the most recently... meaning, a fast 40 time at the combine can erase the perception of a players sruggles in 2010, 2011 across 20-something games. I think that sk3ews evals offtrack. Of course it's great information, it's how it is misused that concerns me. A great point you made about calibration... the idea of having an apples-to-apples way to begin comparing these guys IS very critical. To have some standardized way to compare these guys. That's probably the most helpful thing, in fact, so you aren;t reliant on what you hear through their campuses about thie weights, bench press, 40 times, etc. And getting them side by side. I can't tell you how many times a girl looked hot at a bar, until a hotter girl came over and stood next to her. lol
I think it's cliche to say the combine is a joke. I actually would take it as a red flag if I heard someone in our personnel dept quote it.. I once heard Matt Millen make fun of it.
You wanna buy a stock, and you only wanna do some of the research....ok, that's your choice..I'm constantly looking for the weaknesses on the good players.. Draft...combine..two of the best times of the year for me personally, this is where you get to build your team with the right investments.
No...and if they do in the slightest, I wouldn't like it if it was associated with my team.. Let me give you an example of a player, where after what the combine confirmed for me, a bust pick.. Aaron Maybin...when I studied him on tape, there was evidence he could rush the passer and that he had some talent, hell people were saying we should select him, and he was pretty much a consensus first round pick, however, I was suspicious of the kids frame and musculature in the uniform, once I saw his body in sweats moving around, his weigh in, I was absolutely sure that a lot of teams were making a mistake having him even near the first round..It was obvious to me that his musculature was hiding a very narrow frame, and small joints, I thought to myself, he's not going to be able to sustain blocks or to disengage with any kind of power, the core was very weak. Then there's other players where once I see what I need to see on film, a combine will not help the player...Jimmy Claussen is a good example...
Watching Michael Egnew on tape I fell in love with his burst out of cuts. Watching Michael Egnew at the Combine...I was really turned off to the point I almost took him off my board. I trusted the film. Film of him mopping the floor with standouts like Lavonte David and Arthur Brown in coverage. I had him as my #3 tight end. Now tell me...was there nothing for me to learn at those Combine workouts? No lesson there?
Honestly , Egnews blocking looked horrific on tape. Horrific. What mystifies me though is why he wasn't at least a factor in the passing game??? Especially when he got into the last couple games.
During drills, going half-speed. Coaches were absolutely yelling at him to crank it up and play fast and he seemed almost like he was tuning them out, just taking his time, making sure he got things right instead of fast. I can absolutely imagine that being something that may have turned Miami's coaches off to him as well.
You can do it if you want. I do it b/c I enjoy it, but multiple studies have shown that we don't predict better with more information. We become more confident in our picks, but we actually become less competent. And whether the Combine is important or not isn't proven by the fact they have it every year. It just proves that people "think" it's important.
Stock picking is one of the areas that too much information becomes toxic. You're better off identifying the key pieces of information and stopping your research there. Nobody will do that of course. They'll keep researching and get more confident (or arrogant really), but statistically, be no more accurate and very often, less accurate.
As a member of a bottom-up fundamental asset management team that has been producing outstanding returns via stock picking for 20+ years, I could not possibly disagree with you more.
I knew you wouldn't, but several studies on the prediction success of experts has found the same thing. More info doesn't make them any more accurate. So you may be successful, but I don't believe that it's b/c of extraneous research. There are key pieces of information, the rest is just noise.
Let me ask you this, Chris. Assuming you start with 'enough' information to form an initial opinion with some confidence... How often do you end up more accurate due to deeper analysis of more information, and how often does the greater info or analysis lead to a re-evaluation that is less accurate than your initial evaluation? Essentially, is first impression/opinion more accurate than a re-evaluated position?
More information => context. Context => understanding of things as they happen. Understanding of things as they happen => correct buy/sell decisions.
Been watching some of Keenan Allen and I find it hard to distinguish Allen and Williams. They're both possession WR and would fit this offense beautifully. Allen is more dangerous in terms of play making ability but not by much. Williams is the better catcher and better in traffic. Allen doesn't seem like a great Yards after contact kind of player. Allen also doesn't seem quick he is fast but just is missing that burst. Hopkins has that burst. Not sure how much has to do with Cal having trash at QB but to me it comes down do you want you want to spend. I don't view Allen as a game changer so in terms of draft status I think I'd go with Williams in round 2 than Allen in round 1.
Are you sure you were watching Terrance Williams and not Venus Williams? Williams is more than a possession receiver. Williams is the better play maker. Allen is the better catcher and better in traffic (I say this because he hardly ever separates from when the D is running man, yet he still catches the ball) Correct: Allen isn't great at YAC I wouldn't say Allen is quick or fast, definitely missing that burst. If I had to label him as something I would say shifty. Allen actually requested that, that trashy QB play QB for him... weird. Williams could make his way up to the latter half of the first round in a weak WR class. Hopkins, yes!!! My favorite WR in this years draft. If I could only pick one player for the Dolphins to absolutely get in this draft, Hopkins would be that guy.
Both Allen and Williams do a lot of the same. When I said Williams a possession I meant in the sense he ran a lot of short routes and moved the chains. He is fast enough to beat his man deep so I imagine he would be running a lot of what Hartline runs for Miami. Allen is better in the slot and route runner, shifty is a good word to use for Allen but I don't think has better hands or is better in traffic. I feel like Williams does a good job using his size and bully guys in traffic. Yeah its his brother but Allen could have put up bigger numbers with someone that could throw. I hope not I want Williams or Hopkins in round 2 lol.
I would recommend a book by Nassim Taleb called "Black Swan" (not related to that Natalie Portman movie). He is a mathematician and former hedge fund manager and Wall Street trader. He has been very critical of the finance industries' methods. IIRC he made enough money off of the 1987 crash to retire from trading and then although retired as a trader made a multi-million dollar fortune from the 2007 crisis. He basically argues and IMO proves that context does not => understanding. I don't think this is the proper forum for such a debate, but I recommend the book b/c I think you might enjoy it and you may gain something useful from it. The Sunday Times (a British paper) had called it one of the 12 most influential books since WWII.
