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Tempering Dolphin Expectations

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Yellow Snowman, Aug 19, 2012.

  1. Yellow Snowman

    Yellow Snowman New Member

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    Seems Dolphans expectations for the team this year are way too high. Are people really convinced this team isn't rebuilding? Have people convinced themselves they can compete for the division or wildcard this year?

    Reality is, if the Dolphins finish higher than a bottom 5 team in the league it would be a surprise. Let the team develop and gear up for next years likely top 5 pick in the draft.
     
  2. pennphinfan

    pennphinfan Stelin Canez Arcade Scorz

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    Interesting. I would think the majority of fins fans right now do not actually have high hopes. This argument Ifeel would have been more valid prior to the two preseason games which have served as a bit of a wake up call

    Either way its still preseason.
     
  3. Yellow Snowman

    Yellow Snowman New Member

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    Should have been the mindset before and after preseason. Thread was created because I found it shocking so many fans had such high expectations that weren't rooted in reality.

    If your expectations are accurate you wont have that same letdown and disappointment that some are having. Team has some pieces to build around moving forward.
     
  4. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Have you seen the FA list for next offseason.
    The rebuilding process is going to be long term at this point.
    I don't see anyone talking Super Bowl here.
     
  5. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    High expectations?
    Who the hell has high expectations?
     
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  6. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    We could very easily win 8 games against this schedule if we simply play at the same level we did last season.
     
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  7. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    Well, I figure the team won 6 games despite everything. I assumed that both the players and coaching staff had been upgraded and would account for about a 2 win improvement. If now we are going to be told that this is a 3 or 4 win team, then yeah that is a problem.
     
  8. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    you rebuild in the draft not FA.
     
  9. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Our FA list.
     
  10. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    8?
    How do come up with 8 wins?
    Even blind homerism can't find yo 8 wins.....OK, blind homerism can find 16 wins, but I don't see how you can objectively look at everything and them come up with 8 wins.
    I can get to 6, maybe 7 if I throw objectivity out the window.
     
  11. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I'm not sure we've upgraded much in the player dept.
    If anything, I think we've taken a step backwards.
    Worse at QB, only because we'll be starting a rookie.
    Worse at WR.
    Worse in the defensive backfield....I know alot of people didn't like Bell, but the defense is worse without him.
     
  12. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    Well I would take Tanny over Henne. Yeah, worse at WR, but supposed to be better at RB, TE and OL. Not sure on Bell. Philbin and Sherman are OL guys and Martin was supposed to have "1st round talent." Maybe I just wasn't paying attention, but OL was supposed to be a strength of the team going into training camp.
     
  13. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Just go with our passer rating differential from last year and compare that to this seasons opponents differential from last year. Then factor in that we will not be starting Chad Henne any games this year.

    We won 6 games with Henne as our QB against one of the toughest schedules in the league. I would think with QB play at Matt Moores level its very reasonable to expect 8 wins against one of the easiest schedules in the league.
     
  14. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I'll take Tanny over Henne too, but he will no doubt struggle as a rookie. I think this season or at the very least, the first half of the season we will be worse at QB.
    If the OL continues to play this bad and someone in the WR corps doesn't emerge I don't expect more than 4-5 wins.....and that's being generous.
     
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  15. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I will bet anything we don't win 8.
    And that's a win-win proposition for me....either I win the bet or the Dolphins don't suck.:up:
     
  16. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really don't think EITHER group of people has that firm a grasp on the "reality" of the Dolphins right now. Getting all :taunt: about how you're going to give the plebs a reality check is just as misplaced as thinking the Dolphins are going to be awesome and make a surprise run or what have you.

    It's pre-season. That doesn't mean you ignore everything, or you can't draw any conclusions, but seriously, you don't know as much as you think you do at this point off of what you see on the field. Do you think they're going to run the ball 17% of the time in the regular season, or leave Martin on an island, or decide to switch a linebackers position a week before a game and start him in the regular season?
     
  17. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    We all understand this.
    But this is a message board and we're all fans. It's what we do.
    What, should we just shut down the website during the offseason?
     
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  18. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Vegas will take that bet.
     
  19. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Henne rarely produced much at the position. Tannehill despite some struggles will probably be able to produce more. At least that's what it looks like at this point.
     
  20. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    Sure will.
    Dolphins 7.5 total wins.
    If I could really bring myself to bet against my team, I'd put a shatload on the under.
     
  21. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No, I don't think a lot of people do understand that from the reaction around here. I don't think people discussing the team or drawing some conclusions is really inappropriate or shouldn't be done. "We're gonna suck", or "We're gonna be awesome" is silly though now.
     
  22. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I think you underestimate the struggles a rookie QB usually has.
    Especially one with a crappy OL and no real weapons at the WR position.
     
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  23. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    It is.
    But those are usually made in the heat of the moment either in a game thread or right after a game.
    All I'm doing is taking the information we currently have and giving my opinion. I don't see the inappropriateness in what I'm saying.
     
  24. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

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    Anything less than 5 wins is incompetance on the coaching staff and anything above 8 would be amazing. I'll be disappointed if RT is not starting by mid-season. I'm torn on having him face the Texans D in week 1.
     
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  25. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I think that would reflect more on Management than Coaching. The cupboard is still quite bare.
     
  26. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I hear ya.
    If I could bring myself to do it I'd make myself a little cash.
     
  27. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    And I think that is our ceiling.
     
  28. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    We actually have no idea how difficult our schedule will be. SOS measured using the previous season's winning percentages is notoriously unreliable.

    That said, I see only three games that I can confidently say we're going to win: W2 vs Raiders, W3 vs Jets, and W12 vs Seahawks. If I put on the "What could possibly go wrong?" goggles, toss in W4 at Cardinals and W15 vs Jaguars.
     
  29. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    To me, betting big on the under is a way to guarantee your happiness in an otherwise murky season.

    For a hundred bucks you can ensure that if they lose you'll feel okay about it.

    But if they win lots more, you'll be happy and say it was worth losng the hundred bucks,

    Make the bet.
     
  30. Yellow Snowman

    Yellow Snowman New Member

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    I'm not sure why dolphins fans would feel comfortable winning any of those games.


    Agreed on SOS though. I can't believe people still take that seriously.
     
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  31. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    W2 vs Raiders: we always beat the Raiders. Always. (Corollary: we always lose to the Texans. Always.)
    W3 vs Jets: we always split with the Jets. Sparano teams start slow, even going back to his days as a Cowboys assistant. It's reasonable to expect a win through general Jet offensive incompetence. (Notice that I said nothing about the rematch later this season.)
    W12 vs Seahawks: west coast teams that travel to the east coast for 1 PM local time games have an abysmal record.
     
  32. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Right, but SOS measured with metrics other than winning percentages can be very reliable.
     
  33. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    Week 12 vs. Seahawks
    Week 15 vs. Jags

    Those are the only 2 games I feel confident we'll win.
     
  34. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    And what metrics are you using?
     
  35. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    PR differential, pythagorean wins, DVOA, among others. There are a whole host of stats that are used to predict YoY performance.
     
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  36. Yellow Snowman

    Yellow Snowman New Member

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    Seahawks could be a surprise team this year. Very legit defense, some weapons. Only real question is qb and oline is up and down. Either way the Seahags will definitely be better than the dolphins. Fins can win like any team any week in the nfl, but to feel confident about it shows you much not know anything about the Seahags. They're going to shut down the dolphins offense so easily, Carroll has a legit defense
     
  37. CJTakoz

    CJTakoz New Member

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    vs Raiders , vs Jets , at Cardinals , at Bengals, vs Rams, at Jets, at Colts, vs Titans, at Bills, vs Seahawks, vs Jaguars, vs Bills.

    That's the schedule minus the New England games, @ San Fran, and the Houston game. Which of the above games would it truly shock you if the Fins won? Holes at WR and DB aside, I can see them going 7-5 in these 12 games. They could be favored in all 7 of the home games.
     
  38. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    You lost me when you started invoking Bill Barnwell.
     
  39. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    Does 8-8 qualify as High expectations?
     
  40. Yellow Snowman

    Yellow Snowman New Member

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    Dolphins won't win 8 games if you count the preseason
     

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