Team Needs '12

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Disgustipate, Nov 18, 2012.

  1. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,482
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    All true...doesn't mean you use a high draft pick to preemptively fill the position with a siren going off at CB and DE.
     
  2. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

    5,649
    1,853
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    DC
    Why not get Patton and Swope?
     
  3. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    33,925
    44,378
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    I think the Dolphins are closer than a lot of people are giving them credit for. Do they have holes at all of the positions mentioned in this thread? Yes. Are there many, if not any, teams in the NFL that have zero holes? No. You can be a competitive team with holes. The Dolphins need to plug the greatest needs at impact spots and I believe they can compete sooner rather than later. IMO, the 3 priority spots have to be #1 WR, starting CB, and competent pass rushing threat.

    The hardest to find will be the #1 WR. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I think the best case scenario here is Mike Wallace in FA. I'd roll out the Brinks truck for him if he hits the open market. I think he is an excellent compliment to Hartline and Bess. He may not be Calvin Johnson or AJ Green, but you're unfortunately not going to find either of those guys in this draft. A guy like Greg Jennings or Dwayne Bowe would be my next choice followed by the good, but not great options in the draft like Hunter and Allen. The wildcard here could be if the Dolphins get a big time field stretching TE like Ertz or Eifert. That would allow you to have lesser talent at WR, but the Dolphins would still need to add 1 or 2 solid guys, one of which can get vertical.

    The next hardest spot to fill is starting CB. I don't have any plan for how to fix this because I don't know much about the FA CB market or the draft class at this position. I do know that they desperately need a playmaker in the secondary though.

    Last, but not least they need a pass rusher. The reason I put it third on the list of how difficult it will be to find one is I don't necessarily think they need a stud pass rusher to be a competitive team right now. I think they simply need someone that can give you SOME pass rush opposite Wake and those types of players can be found if you make any effort to look (which I don't believe the Dolphins did this offseason). Now this draft class looks like it will be loaded with pass rushers so if you're getting your WR and CB in FA, then by all means go out and get a big time guy in the draft. If you do have two very good pass rushers, that allows you to have lesser talent in the secondary so you could get away with a lesser CB opposite Smith.
     
  4. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    32,157
    58,016
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Sure you do. If a defensive tackle is the best player available, and you can plausibly use that player, go hog wild.

    The reality of the draft is that any given position will not have good players at a position you can plausibly select.
     
  5. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

    5,802
    5,616
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    NJ
    But we have like 3 or 4 positions that are much higher priority than DT.

    And it will be likely that an argument will be able to be made that the BPA at the Dolphins draft slot is a player at one of those 3-4 positions
     
    Section126 and ssmiami like this.
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Defensive tackle only becomes a priority if you let Randy Starks walk. And you don't let a Randy Starks walk on the basis of "well I can just draft his replacement". You let Randy Starks walk if you're confident Jared Odrick can pick up where he leaves off and be just as good. And if that's the case then defensive tackle isn't a draft priority.

    The decision to let Randy Starks walk will have to be made at a time when there isn't a ton of clarity as to what is going to happen on draft day and who is going to be available. I think people are trying to connect the decision to let Starks walk and to draft his replacement, as if those two decisions can be made in tandem, and I think that's overstated a little.

    I would absolutely focus on re-signing Randy Starks. I think he and Paul Soliai have been the strength of the defense. With no pass rush on the other side of Cameron Wake, Randy Starks' penetration up the middle has been a key. And with bad coverage from every corner not named Sean Smith, plus bad zone coverage from the safeties, the success of the run defense in keeping offenses behind schedule has also been a key. If not for those things, this defense could slide into oblivion.

    Defensive tackle is about the very last position I would prioritize in the Draft.
     
  7. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    76,046
    39,120
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    New York
    If you think that Cobb, Jennings, Nelson or Jones arent only better and more talented then Hartline or Bess then you just clearly havent watched a Packer game in 2 years. i simply cant help you with that. They do things on a field like make plays in the red zone. Bess and Hartline are ok if all you want to do is work between the 20's but in the red zone they both suck. Thats not just a function of the QB, thats a function of the entire offense, them included. That doesnt mean they suck, just that they arent starters on a team that is going to a conference championship or beyond. MAYBE you can get away with hartline if you have an elite TE but Bess has no speed whatsoever making him strictly a 3rd/4th wr type.

    2012 cap is 120.9M
    The contracts below add up to 68.77
    Gates and Vontae are worth 1.6M in dead cap
    That leaves 50.6M

    The first number is the amount the player is owed for next year, the second number is the amount saved by cutting said player....
    Karlos Dansby-Linebacker ($8.6 million, $3.9 million)
    Paul Soliai-Defensive Tackle ($7.9 million, $6.3 million)
    Richard Marshall-Cornerback ($5.8 million, $5.4 million)
    Kevin Burnett-Linebacker ($5.7 million, $3.2 million) - I reduced to 2M, savings 1.2M or cut
    Richie Incognito-Guard ($5.4 million, $4.3 million) - Cut so now 1.2M from Burnett + 4.3M = 5.5
    Cameron Wake-Defensive End ($5 million, NEGATIVE $9.9 million)
    Davone Bess-Wide Receiver ($3.4 million, $2.7 million) - Under yours and my scenarios we traded him...savings 2.7M. Now we have 8.2M additional
    Dan Carpenter-Kicker ($3 million, $2.7 million) - Cut, 8.2M + 2.7M brings us to 10.9M
    Ryan Tannehill-Quarterback ($2.9 million, NEGATIVE $7.8 million)
    Mike Pouncey-Center ($2.5 million, NEGATIVE $2.9 million)
    Jared Odrick-Defensive Tackle ($1.9 million, NEGATIVE 650 K)
    Brandon Fields-Punter ($1.7 million, NEGATIVE 360 K)
    Koa Misi-Linebacker ($1.1 million, $665 K)
    Jonathan Martin-Offensive Tackle ($1.1 million, $960 K)
    John Denney-Defensive End ($1 million, $870 K)
    Daniel Thomas-Running Back ($880 K, $455 K)
    John Jerry-Guard ($790 K, $575 K)
    Olivier Vernon-Defensive End ($670 K, $190 K)
    Michael Egnew-Tight End ($652 K, $210 K
    Nolan Carroll-Cornerback ($622 K, $575 K)
    Reshad Jones-Safety ($615 K, $575 K)
    Lamar Miller-Running Back ($601 K, $237 K)
    Charles Clay-Fullback ($583 K, $527 K)
    Jimmy Wilson-Cornerback ($566 K, $543 K)
    Will Yeatman-Tight End ($555 K, $555 K) - Cut, now we're at 11.455M
    Kheeston Randall-Defensive Tackle (495 K, $448 K)
    Rishard Matthews-Wide Receiver ($492 K, $454 K)
    Marcus Thigpen-Running Back ($482 K, $477 K)
    Jonas Gray-Running Back ($481 K, $478 K)
    Derrick Shelby-Defensive End ($481 K, $478 K)
    Josh Samuda-Guard ($481 K, $478 K)
    Javorskie Lane-Fullback ($480 K, $480 K)
    Russell Anderson-Safety ($480 K, $480 K) Cut, now we're at 11.935M additional
    Jonathan Freeny-Linebacker ($480 K, $480 K) Cut, now 12.415M additional
    Josh Kaddu-Linebacker ($480 K, $480 K)
    Kelcie McCray-Safety ($406K, $403 K) Cut, now we're at 12.818M additional

    12.818M saved with the moves above + the original 50.6M leaves us with over 63M (63.418M to be exact) to play ball with. The only things that can affect that number are players hitting bonus money or me typing them wrong. I assure you I didnt type them wrong.
     
  8. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    He shoulda killed Jake Locker on that 4th and two play.
     
  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,544
    33,044
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    He shoulda, however that is a play that many of good linebacker has failed
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  10. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    32,157
    58,016
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    I agree completely with the first, and I think the second is plausible. But the fact of the matter is that the draft is frequently inconvenient in terms of what is available to you in reality.

    Here's an experiment... Go back at past drafts, and look what was plausibly draftable in our positions of need in past drafts. Say that our needs are WR, Edge Rusher, and CB, and as of right now I believe the Dolphins would select at #9.

    If you look at the 2008 NFL draft, none of those needs would be fulfilled at #9. There would be no defensive ends, wide receivers, or corners besides Dominique Rogers-Cromartie at #16, which I'm not sure its.
     
    Stringer Bell likes this.
  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Madness, imo, we need playmakers Dpate, arguably outside of Wake and Jones on Defense, we have no one who can change a game, on offense we have..Reggie Bush.

    If one wants to get to the crux of our problems, it is to be found there, to many guys who do not handle the ball with to high of a resource usage to acquire, our IRR is dog**** tbh,
     
    Section126 likes this.
  12. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

    3,972
    2,062
    0
    Jul 24, 2012
    with this front office, i wouldn't be surprised if we took a DT with our 1st pick. remember, we took Odrick with our first pick when we had Langford, Starks, McDaniels, Merling, and Ryan Baker, on the roster.
     
  13. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,482
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    Couldn't have said it better myself.
     
    Eop05 likes this.
  14. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    32,157
    58,016
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    And if the reality of the situation is that there are not any, then what? Do you just pretend and do your best contrary to your evaluations?

    The draft is not a magical well of infinite possibilities. The pre-draft process sells you a bunch of **** that rarely matches up with reality. There are in reality going to be a minority of players in the draft that are quality starters, and many successful selections will not at any point in their career be worth the pick you paid to acquire them. Picking a perennial pro bowl player at a position that you can use but isn't a big need is a much better outcome than picking a solid player at a position of need.
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    If you do not risk, you have no real return, and here we are, the highest draft choice used on a skill position player has been..Pat White and Daniel Thomas.


    Oh I'm no huge draft fan, to me it's mostly hype and very little substance, the reality is when you take Defensive linemen via trade backs, and Centers and tackles, there are reasons why we look surprisingly like the Cleveland Browns atm.

    Joe Thomas and Mack are great football players, the Browns don't win games, much like us, for a reason.

    Even taking a Wr that high is not guarantee b/c their learning curve is typically quite long aside from elite type of Top 5 picks like Megatron and AJ Green, but even then we still passed on Dez Bryant who is a PITA but scores Td's.
     
  16. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    32,157
    58,016
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Fan appeasement is not a draft strategy. It's a recipe for failure, much bigger and much more sure than picking certain areas in the draft over others. There is a right answer in regards to the draft, and GMs should not be rewarded or condemned for any other reason than how well they find those answers. The idea that if they need a position so they should just buck up take it and hope for the best is foolishness.

    So is the idea that skill positions are inherently worth more than other positions. It's essentially ignorance dressed up as a draft philosophy. No GM in the NFL actually in practice follows it, it's something that gets thrown around by fans who are awed by what happens at the ball and are disinterested in any of the number of logistics necessary to achieve that result. A Left Tackle does not score points, but their job is to eliminate the players who are capable of in some cases single-handedly shutting down big aspects of your ability to score points.

    The Dolphins, with virtual certainty should have done a better job at finding skill position players. Early on it was appropriate to draft what was on the board or trade down, but at this point they should be more active in pursuing the players they want.

    Realistically, the biggest failing is that they have not found a better solution to the tight end situation. However, acting like it was a no brainer at the time to select Jimmy Graham over John Jerry is some seriously ignorance bull****, and does not add credibility to arguments that fundamentally exist on their own merits.
     
  17. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    On top of that, at a cost of roughly $5.5 million combined to keep them both, I'd opt for trading Bess after this season if possible b/c IMO that's too much money to have tied up two #3/#4 caliber receivers.
     
  18. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Of all Buffalo's FA interior linemen, I doubt they let LeVitre go.
    IMO there's a better chance they let Urbik walk and instead re-sign Rinehart at right guard since he'll cost less.... so Urbik could be a possibility.
     
  19. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

    36,936
    10,264
    0
    Mar 25, 2008
    Thee...Ohio State University
    If Bess rendered a 5th we should snap call it.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Personally I think the cost of both combined will be closer to $7 million.
     
  21. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    32,157
    58,016
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    I don't know what that means and it's probably for the better.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I don't know where you're getting your numbers but even if you go by this source, the CAP VALUES of all the players (including dead weight players) add up to $81.5 million once you subtract the cap values of Derek Moye and Terence Brown who are no longer with the team. And this isn't even the source I was talking about that specifically cited the NFL league office about a month ago in saying that the Dolphins had about $81 million in contracted cap value on the books for 2013.

    http://nyjetscap.com/Dolphins/dolphins2013.php

    If the 2013 salary cap is the same as the 2012 salary cap the Dolphins are scheduled to have only $40 million in space.
     
  23. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Oh no, not Baker, Langford, and Merling!!

    [​IMG]




    !!What were we thinking with those studs on the roster?! LOL.

    BTW, you're conveniently forgetting that Starks was slated as the starting NT, meaning there was a potential liability at 3-4 DE opposite Langford, and with how important defensive line play is, it's foolish & irresponsible to say DE would've been ok with either Merling (highly inconsistent), McDaniel (a backup whom we acquired the year prior for a 7th round pick), or Ryan Baker who wasn't good enough to make the team. On top of that, Odrick represented the highest value at our pick as many teams had him as a top 20 talent.

    LOL at you whining about taking a Dlineman with that 1st pick as if the alternatives are setting the NFL on fire.
    Odrick is arguably outperforming the subsequent 11 picks (from #29-39). It's like you enjoy whining just to whine.
     
  24. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Bess is currently less than $2.5M/year, and I'd expect him to stay around there..... and I'd be surprised to see Hartline receive more than $3.5M/year considering he deserves less than Mario Manningham's 2012 FA contract (2 yr $7.375M). I could see Hart fetching 3 yr/9.0M. Regardless, it's still too much for them both. I could stomach paying one #3/#4 receiver that amount if we're thin at the position, but not two.
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Davone Bess's salary cap figure next year is $3.4 million. The team would save $2.7 million if they cut or traded him. I expect Brian Hartline to make closer to $5 million a year than $3 million a year. He's on pace to finish the year with 1260 receiving yards. It may only be 2 touchdowns, but think about the fact that Antonio Brown only had one year with 1178 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns before receiving a 6 year, $43 million contract. He was statistically off the map prior to 2011, too...whereas Brian Hartline has been productive (statistically) relative to his opportunities since 2009. I'm not saying Brian Hartline will get Antonio Brown money but he and his agent will most certainly point to that $7.2 million average figure as a starting point for negotiations from their end. Hell I thought I was cutting corners just by bringing that down to $4.5 million. It may in reality be closer to $5.5 million.
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I think it was pretty obvious when Jared Odrick was taken that he was a talent call and not a need call. The Dolphins had Randy Starks, Paul Soliai, Kendall Langford and Phil Merling under contract. To that point I certainly was not a fan of Phil Merling's work, though I was consistently much, much, much higher on Soliai than most everyone else who kept calling for him to be inexplicably cut...but even so it was clear that Miami could've gotten by in 2010 with those four plus Tony McDaniel, whom the Dolphins had already traded for on March 19th prior to that Draft. There's a difference between saying there was theoretical room for Jared Odrick somewhere in the rotation, which there clearly was, and saying that there was a "need" for Jared Odrick, which in my opinion there was not. Not that I was unhappy with the pick. I just assumed, much as everyone else did, that it was more of a talent call than a need call.
     
  27. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

    8,365
    4,211
    113
    Jan 5, 2010
    the next dimension
    IMO Odrick was the safe pick, which Ireland has a knack for making in the first round. He was the top rated 3-4 DE prospect if I call correctly. Which seems to be a trend with Ireland 1st round picks until they drafted Tannehill this year(which he was kinda forced into taking the risk).
    2008 - Jake Long (Top tackle prospect)
    2009 - Vontae Davis (Top corner prospect)
    2010 - Jared Odrick (Top 3-4 DE prospect)
    2011 - Mike Pouncey (Top C prospect)
     
    gunn34 likes this.
  28. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    76,046
    39,120
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    New York
    If for arguments sake those numbers are accurate well we still have 6 clear cuts there (Moye, Yeatman, Terence Brown, Russell Anderson, Jon Freeny, Kelcie McCray) saving approximately 3.5M. You still go thru with Incognito being cut (4.3M) and Bess being dealt (2.7M) for another 7M. And Jake Long is still listed there for 10.7M. So you end you back at almost the same amount of available cap space (over 62M). And thats before I do anything with Burnett. Or we end up with Jake back at 10.7M according to that which I wont complain about unless its a long term deal.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    As I said, the $81.5 million figure I talked about already accounted for Terence Brown and Derek Moye otherwise it would've been $82.5 million.

    But you're right Jake Long should not be listed there as he voided the final year of his contract. Personally I don't even necessarily believe that source has everything straight. I trust what the league office puts out.
     
  30. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    You and I both didn't feel it was a need b/c we were both confident in Soliai. Unfortunately Sparano and Nolan didn't feel that way as they believed he was a backup with Starks designated as the starter. IMO that decision changed things and created a greater need at DE, granted it was an unnecessary need b/c they should've left Starks at DE rather than tinkering with his success. I agree that it was a talent call first and foremost, but at the same time they were probably thinking, "This makes Starks' move to NT all the easier and more reassuring". So IMO it was a value pick that fit a potential need.
     
  31. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    76,046
    39,120
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    New York
    Bottom line is we're on the same page. Depending on where you look and the moves made we're between 58 and 63M in cap space assuming Jake isnt resigned or franchised for an outrageous amount. My plan can take place if we played our cards right and it addresses every unit that needs addressing. Now I just need a GM post...cant do worse then what we have can I? :)
     
  32. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    And then Miami will remove the lone Zona anomaly as they should,
    mention his putrid 3 TDs over the past 3 years,
    note how he was essentially 1 of only 2 receivers catching passes for most of this season which impairs the passing distribution,
    point to his 16 catches on 35 targets(46%) for 240 yards, 6.86 yards/attempt, and 40 yards/game in 6 games this year when he's not playing against poor coverage,
    and perhaps mention how he doesn't produce heavily when there's actually a decent receiver on the team like 2010 & '11 with Marshall......
    ..... and I'd go so far as pointing out how presence as a starter, despite his individual yardage numbers, hasn't been conducive toward a successful offense.
    ..... or rather than letting his agent point out Hartline's individual stats, we'd point out our team's overall passing stats, which are more telling & significant.

    After all that's factored in, he's worth no more than $3.5M/year IMO.... as I simply don't see him earning more than Manningham who came off 3 years totaling 156 catches, 2289 yards, 18 TDs, 14.7 avg.... and another 13 catches for 189 yards and 3 TDs in last year's playoffs, including a clutch, pivotal grab in the SB.
     
  33. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Jake is still a good player, but even he likely knows his play has regressed. As such, I think we'll find a way to sign him for what he's currently worth, which in turn would make it worth signing him.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I don't think we're on the same page at all because I think the Dolphins truly only have $40 million of cap space to work with, with $6 or $7 million of that necessary for signing rookies, and like $15 million of it necessary to set aside if they put the franchise tag on Jake Long while they try and trade him. I insist your numbers don't fit.
     
  35. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    DBess is not going anywhere, Hartline is the type of player you keep at your price.

    To me, you can see Bline's talent, he played well last yr with Marshall hogging the ball, and that has continued this season.

    The Offensive line is a bigger issue imo, we will draft or sign a Wr, but that damn line is just a mess.
     
  36. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    76,046
    39,120
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    New York
    I dont think players really know or care...they want to be paid just like owners. Cant blame them either with such a limited time frame to earn. I dont want him back at 10M per. Id rather trade him, let someone else give me a pick in the 20 to 40 range and take Jake Matthews with the pick swapping Jon Martin back to the LT spot where he belongs.
     
  37. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    I personally feel JJ at Rt and Martin at LT is what they have in mind, or draft someone to play RT.

    Or toss Yeatman out there.

    LG though, there just are no easy answers, I personally feel we should develop someone rather than take the usual low hanging FA fruit that just does not pan out.

    I suspect if anyone bothered to track it, since the Shula spending binge in the mid 90's FA's come here and just drop off their level of play so why keep doing that same thing?

    12 millie for Jake Long is just to much $$$ for his level of play, back to back yrs we're seeing the same thing, poor play, penalties, he's not the same guy imo.
     
  38. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,566
    25,123
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    If we franchise Jake, I'd be pleasantly surprised if we we're offered better than a 3rd for him at that high a cost.
    If you don't see him worthy of a new contract, then I'm not sure the rest of the NFL would view him worthy either plus a high draft pick added in. I'm not sure I see it, especially when no one would give up a 1st for Mike Wallace at only 9.5M.

    I cant see paying him $13.4M or whatever the franchise tag cost is, so I get the feeling we're stuck either letting him walk and picking up a compensatory pick or signing him to a hometown discount deal considering we made him the #1 pick and grossly inflated his pockets with $57.7M (a whopping $40.0M more than #12 pick Ryan Clady who has performed on par with or better than Jake). By my account, the gentleman in Jake owes us one.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I'm just going to play some devil's advocate here because that's what negotiations are all about.

    To which his agent will reply, why would take an entire game away from him? Was it not him running routes and catching passes and putting the Dolphins in position to win the game had the defense not collapsed at the end? He did all that. You can't just take it away.

    I think this is obviously a strong statistic in Miami's favor on the negotiating table, however I could see them pointing out that Antonio Brown also has a total of 3 TDs in his three year career, and that includes this year.

    To which he and his agent can easily reply that his 2.27 yards per pass snap ranks among the league elites. Not just high, elite. Brandon Marshall typically produces at the exact same level.

    "Poor coverage" that is arbitrarily determined by whom? For example, you obviously didn't include the Arizona game in those games. Yet if you rank NFL pass defenses by yards per attempt (the most relevant stat as it applies to wide receivers), they rank #12 in the league. Where do you draw the line? St. Louis ranks #18 in that stat. Cincinnati ranks #20 in that stat, Buffalo #22, Oakland #24, Indianapolis #26, Tennessee #27. Which teams qualified in your 6 games? Obviously both Jets games and the Houston game. It would seem to me the Rams game had to be in there, and I suppose that means Buffalo and Cincinnati were in there.

    As an agent I would accuse the other side of the table of straight up data mining and stat cooking on this point. To cite the Rams, Bills and Bengals as games that don't have a poor defense, and then to leave out the Cardinals game, is irrational. The Cardinals allow fewer yards per attempt than any of those three. The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 2nd lowest passer rating in football. Arizona's defense ranks 5th in completion percentage. They rank 5th in total passing yardage allowed. So in reality your "good pass defense split" for Brian Hartline should be 28 of 48 for 493 yards on 240 pass snaps. That works out to 10.3 yards per attempt, 70.4 yards per game and 2.05 yards per pass snap...all three stats of which are damn close to identical to his full season stats. As his agent I would argue that he's producing properly against mediocre and even good NFL pass defenses, and the fact that he's able to increase his production to 2.78 yards per pass snap (while maintaining a 9.6 yards per attempt figure) when facing defenses that has holes...that's not a bad thing. That's a good thing.

    To which I would shoot back that between Brandon Marshall having a Brandon Ratio, and with Chad Henne's preference to work the short areas of the field (because he's not a very good quarterback), that left very little opportunity for Brian Hartline. YET all metrics say that he did produce when called upon. He produced 8.7 yards per attempt (with 14.9 yards per completion) during those seasons, when called upon. Those YPA and YPC figures puts him in the top third (33rd percentile in each category) when looking at the combined production of 2010 and 2011 of all receivers that took at least 500 snaps in the two seasons combined.

    And unfortunately I don't have the will or time to compile this but were I Brian Hartline's agent I sure as hell would. Hartline has been stupendous at generating flags and penalties against him ever since coming in the league. He's like a flopper, but effective. Not to besmirch Dwyane Wade's name but there are times I feel like Dwyane is playing for the foul rather than the basket and he still gets them called all the time. Hartline is like that. If you did a league wide study I would be willing to bet he's at the very top of the league from 2009 to 2012 in terms of defensive holding and pass interference incidence. I don't know how much the yardage would add up to but he produces a lot of extra 1st downs that way, and produces a lot of extra yards that aren't accounted for in these statistics.

    You have to be careful in negotiations. What you just said is essentially a negotiations ender. Once you've said this, there's no more reason for either party to continue talking with one another. Both parties have to realize there's a reason you're at the table, you both have mutual interest. The player has interest in joining (re-joining) your team, and the team views the player as a valuable asset.

    I think that's pretty easy to rebutt and comes off weak. Brian is only one man on an 11 man offense. He's holding his own, producing at really remarkable levels statistically in some ways. If you present that argument to his agent then his agent can just say that when he has negotiations with other teams about Brian's value he can guarantee that Brian isn't going to be castigated by those other teams because Richie Incognito can't keep defensive linemen out of Ryan Tannehill's face, or because Tannehill started to come apart from an accuracy standpoint after his leg injury, or that there was no other member of the Dolphins receivers unit that could be counted on to get snaps on the field and keep a defense anywhere even close to honest. These are not things he's going to be discussing with the New England Patriots. They'll discuss what he did there and what he can do here.

    One thing he has going in his favor over a Manningham is his personality and work ethic. It has been suggested a few times that Manningham isn't the best in the locker room. If I were Brian Hartline's agent and I had to fight for modeling the deal more after what Antonio Brown got than Mario Manningham, then I would focus on the production differences. In the year before he left Manningham produced 52 catches on 94 passes for 712 yards and 7 TDs. He had 526 pass snaps. That's only 7.6 yards per attempt and only 1.35 yards per pass snap. He did produce some touchdowns, but the difference between Hartline's 10.0 yards per attempt and 2.27 yards per pass snap is stark. And as an agent I would also get to point out that Manningham amassed that production with Eli Manning at quarterback while Hartline is dealing with a rookie Ryan Tannehill.

    Brian Hartline will have a strong case in the negotiations room for modeling a contract after the 6 year, $43 million deal that Antonio Brown got. I don't think he'll win that case totally, but he's going to benefit from that deal.

    If I were putting myself in the Dolphins shoes then I would argue:

    1. You're not as fast as Antonio Brown and speed does matter because it changes the configurations of the defensive coverage, dictates which situations are generally given to which players that they have to "win", and the speed could very well be a touchdown limiting factor for Brian longer term.

    2. I would also point out that Brian lately seems a little more interested in drawing fouls like a basketball flopper than he looks trying to be physical, shield the football, and treat the ball in the air like it's his. His lack of strength and physicality are clearly a rate limiter when it comes to producing touchdowns, long term.

    Those would be my main complaints about Brian, that if we thought he brought as much physical talent to the table as an Antonio Brown we'd be happy to sign that contract. However, he doesn't. He doesn't have the speed to truly add that dimension to his game, nor is a physical beast to where he can add that to his game. Then you offer him a deal averaging about $5 million a year, with touchdown based incentives to where he could earn every bit of that Antonio Brown contract if he's producing touchdowns.
     
  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    117,254
    74,929
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I thought Solai's play the year before projected well for the following year, there were some intangibles and maturity you could see as well, do you think is there a chance he made a mistake on Solai's projection and selected Odrick?

    I also wonder if letting Langford walk in his first contract year is Reason to think Ireland did'nt pick him in the first place...
     

Share This Page