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TANNEHILL VERSUS THE WORLD: THE IN-DEPTH COMPARISON TANNEHILL’S CRITICS DON’T WANT YOU TO READ

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Samphin, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Great rant. Very entertaining and informative as usual.

    I like to read Fahey and think that he makes some very good points in his analysis. However I do think that his own biases affect his attempts to turn his opinions into data. I question his accuracy in regards to Tannehill because he seems to have taken a position as a Tannehill advocate. I agree with the direction of his opinion but not the degree.
     
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  2. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is this a different article now? The original article when first posted is NOT the article that is linked to now.

    So the author eliminated Kirk Cousins. Weird.
     
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  3. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    You had me at "number crunching".....
     
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  4. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    It's the same article. Both articles had Cousins eliminated.
     
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  5. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Naw, earlier in the first paragraph it said something to the effect of Wilson not being good from the pocket, and it looked old. Hence my first post. Now when I click it, that paragraph is completely gone. Weird.

    I thought you had me on ignore? Lol.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's possible. Inspect the page source and it says:
    Your post #2 in this thread was supposedly posted at 11:45am ET yesterday, which is right before the article was last modified according to the page source (assuming there's no time zone issue.. in any case it was modified).
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Every QB takes time to develop. Every. Damn. One. So, if people want to have knee jerk reactions, then fine, they can do that.

    But they should be honest, and just admit that was what they were doing, and they should expect more reasonable people to dispute their knee jerk reactions.
     
  8. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    How many games did it take Marino to develop?
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Or Russell Wilson.

    100.0 passer rating in his rookie year 2012 (9 regular season games with 100+ rating that year). And it wasn't a fluke either. 101.2 in 2013, 95.0 in 2014, 110.1 in 2015 and 92.6 in 2016. Played great right out of the gate:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm

    Not every QB needs development time.
     
  10. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy Club Member

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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So, we're going to ignore his run game and great defense in this analysis?

    Those two things are crucial for development. Also, the exception doesn't disprove anything. One other thing, without looking it up, wasn't he throwing it significantly fewer times than Tannehill?
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  12. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Splendid writeup that took a boatload of time and thought. Looking forward to our win record visually representing how much he's improved. Even more looking forward to people that only see the Dolphins in highlights not looking at me like I've lost my mind when I tell them how much I like Tannehill. We can't seem to all get on the same page about him on this site let alone the general public.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It disproves what you said twice, namely that EVERY QB takes time to develop. That's simply wrong. You need to modify your argument there.

    And there's no analysis anyone here can come up with that will show a QB that goes to a team with a great defense and running game is expected to produce RW numbers in his first 5 years.

    To your question.. yes RW threw less than RT, but once you get past ~150 attempts the variance in passer rating starts to level off meaning the efficiency (which passer rating measures) is reliable enough for direct comparison. In every one of the 5 years RW played he had at least 393 attempts, and he averaged 456.2 attempts per year so that's not an issue.
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No, you're playing a bit of semantics here. You know exactly what I'm saying, but you don't want to admit it, so instead, you'll argue the word "every," as if that somehow bolsters the opposite of my argument. Any rookie QB will benefit from having an awesome run game, limited throws per game, and a defense that gives up only 16ppg, and often holds teams to single digit scores for games. Is it easier to compete one pass, or 10 passes in a row? 20 passes in a row?

    Of course, you know all this because it's been discussed ad nauseum. People complain when we "detract" from guys like Wilson, but its silly comparisons, like the one you made, that cause us to become "detractors." You completely ignore the entire situation in Seattle that Wilson went to. You ignore the consistent coaching, you ignore that he wasn't forbidden to scramble, you ignore everything, and then try to compare the two. It's stupid, it's lazy, and its wrong.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK this just tells me you're not willing to admit when you're wrong. No need to continue the discussion.

    Oh and what's "stupid, lazy and wrong" is asserting things are true without gathering the data and doing the necessary analysis to prove your claims.
     
  16. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Yeah Tannehill was forbidden to scramble, just like he was forbidden to throw an accurate deep pass.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No, dude. You're picking at one word, "every," and trying to discount the gist of the post.

    But just for you...99.9999999999999% of all QBs require time to develop. Or, almost every QB needs time to develop.

    Happy? It doesn't change a thing about my first post. Further, TANNEHILL needed time to develop, which many here weren't willing to give him. But, if you expect that the vast majority of rookie QBs, regardless of the situation around them, are going to be elite their first year, then you should probably stop watching football.
     
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  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Thill doesn;t have problems with the deep pass. Never has.
     
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK, just took a look at starting QB's in 2016. There are 3 QB's that were great as rookies: Wilson, Roethlisberger, Prescott. Wilson had a 100 rating, Roethlisberger a 98.1 rating (in 2004 so it means more) and Prescott a 104.9 rating though we'll have to see if that's for real or just a 1-year wonder.

    So it's more like 90% that need development time.

    btw.. the average number of years the QB's I looked at that eventually performed consistently above average for several years was 3.5 years development time. And some rare ones like Alex Smith needed 7 years before they broke out. So yes Tannehill needs the time, but it's getting close to the latter end of the period where you expect the QB to finally prove themselves.

    Actually in Tannehill's case one could make an argument he already reached that last year in which case he did it in year 5. But that only counts if he's consistently above average from here on out.
     
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  20. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    On the bolded part, I don't think there's any way to make an argument that RT was above avg last year, 19-12 TD/INT ratio is way below avg and is way more critical to winning than any other QB stat.

    So with RT, we are looking at "potential", yet again, because what he did in "stretches" last year, which has an all too familiar ring to it, lol, my point is just that it's year 6 and we're still waiting, he hasn't yet "arrived", so to speak.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I was looking at passer rating. Let me explain my reasoning not just for the bolded part but the sentence after that one where I qualified it by saying we could make the argument he arrived in year 5 ONLY if he's consistently above average from here on out (there was thought behind that statement btw.. haha).

    So.. average passer rating in 2016 was 87.6. Generally, the standard deviation for league passer rating will be around ~10-11 or so depending on how you calculate it (did you calculate it for teams or for starting QB's, etc..). Tannehill's rating was 93.5 in 2016. So Tannehill was about 0.5 Std. Dev above the mean.

    That means that while technically it's clear Tannehill was above average passer rating wise, he didn't even get 1 Std. Dev above the mean. It's basically right at the point where you could argue either way.. he just had a better year by chance as an average QB, or had a worse year by chance as an above average QB.

    Only way to argue it was a worse year by chance is IF he is consistently an above average QB from here on out. That's why I stated things the way I did.

    In any case, you're right his TD/INT ratio is below average, but then again some other key stats like Y/A are above average. I think passer rating actually captures where Tannehill should be ranked fairly well so I made the argument based on that.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tannehill would have needed more time, given his limited college experience. Then you have the conundrum that Tannehill developed, albeit with almost zero help from a coaching staff that handcuffed him before basically washing out of the league, and provided him no support via the run game, nor with a legitimate tight end. There's a reason why most teams with young QBs want a good run game, and why tight ends are considered a QBs best friend.

    You guy's are judging Tannehill, without acknowledging that he really didn't have the tools necessary to be successful.

    Congrats on getting me balls deep into this conversation again.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
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  23. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Interestingly all 3 QBs mentioned were thought of as development projects when drafted.
    The 'NFL ready' QBs like Luck have never starred as rookies. Even Dan Marino slid to us because of concerns about smarts/discipline, ans many experts thought he would struggle.
     
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  24. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    With Tannehill I want to apply discounts of Sherman's sub par offense and Lazor's sub par playcalling. However if you start doing that you have to do the same exercise for all QBs.

    In 2 pof the ladt 3 years Tannehill has been above average, and in the down year there was a collapse in the D putting him in bad game situations. Since there is a correlation between passer rating and win probability it is arguable that 2014 is the outlier.
    However as cbrad says time will tell.
     
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  25. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Agreed.

    But their are also a myriad of reasons why this team could still be good and Tannehill NOT get better.

    The reason the excuses aren't valid anymore are...he has a playoff roster surrounding him.

    I think he will step up, but if he doesn't? He will be the reason, not the coaching, guards or anything else.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Good observation.

    RG3 is the last QB drafted really high that was considered can't miss and NFL ready and actually lived up to (or arguably even exceeded) the hype his first year with a 102.4 rating. Guy was great until the freak injury.

    He wasn't included in post #61 because PFR excluded him from the "starting QB" category and he also didn't consistently produce above average after his rookie season.. because of that injury.

    Otherwise, some highly touted QB's like Peyton did really well (at least 1 Std. Dev. above the mean) in their 2nd year.
     
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  27. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    You can't judge Tannehill because he doesn't have enough tools to be successful AND you can't judge Wilson because he has too many tools...
     
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  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No credit for the run game being even more effective because of the threat Wilson himself poses ...
     
  29. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    With RG3 he was thought of as a Michael Vick type athlete/QB more than an NFL type pocket passer. Also as we've seen with Colin Kaepernick's career defenses caught yp to that style of offense, so maybe RGIII would have flamed out like CKap.
    Also given RGIIIs runnng style I am not so sure you could call it a freak accident. Yes that particular incident was a freak, but he was racking up so many incidents the freak incident became inevitable.
     
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  30. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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  31. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Totally agree. But if he lights up the league he can't be ignored. So far, he hasn't regardless how much deep diving we want to do to figure out how great he can be.
     
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  32. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Some people like just new shiny things. They don't realize how difficult it is to replace a Rodgers. Especially GB because before him they had BF. So their levele of being Delusional can only be compared to perhaps the Chargers (Brees then Rivers) or a better comparison is the Niner fans who had Montana then Young. I have a couple buddies one who is a Broncos fan and the other a Saints fan. Told them both that finding a QB like Manning or Brees is not a given. Broncos fan is seeing what I was talking about now. Kept preaching to him that his team needed a succession plan for when Manning retired and am now doing the same to the Saints fan. Not that preaching to my buddy in any way gets his team to actually have a succession plan but does allow me to have a cemented "told ya" on deck that is just never-ending fun.
     
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  33. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    RG3 always took too many hits even in college. He got away with it there b/c he was a superior athlete, but it was obvious even then. In fact, I specifically listed the risk of that propensity to get hit as one of the reasons not to draft him. I felt it was a matter of "when" not "if". And long-term success at NFL QB is going to come from the pocket. I loved CKap coming out, but I didn't have an early first round grade on him b/c he hadn't shown the ability to read from the pocket in college. It wasn't his fault b/c the system didn't require it, but it was still a real risk. When CKap was tearing up the league I cautioned that his long term success would still depend on whether he could develop those pocket reading skills. He didn't. Wilson, on the other hand did greatly improve his pocket skills. Reality is that he won a championship b/c of the team that surrounded him (primarily an all-time great level D), but he was not a great QB those first couple of years. He wouldn't of sniffed the playoffs here. But now that his pocket game has developed he is a great QB. People talk about QBs running way too much. The vast majority of the plays they make is from the pocket.
     
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  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Raf, you're in the mains, so all QBs not named Thill are allowed to have reasons for anything negative. If Thill has a reason for anything negative it is an excuse. So, RGIII had a freak injury that is in no way due to his running style and Thill finally got injured due to his lack of pocket awareness.
     
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  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wilson was always good from the pocket. Not sure why people keep saying he was only effective when he was out of it.

    In 2013, his second year, super bowl winning season, he had a 101.3 rating from within the pocket. 370 passes. On designed rollouts yes he was even better, at 130, but it's not like they had to roll him out. On scrambles he had a 76 rating.

    101.3 from within the pocket I would argue, is pretty good.

    [​IMG]

    And his Pressure ratings (same amount of dropbacks pressured as Tanny almost, but with less total pass attempts, so pressured on a greater percentage)

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2017
  36. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    With the way you worded your first post I thought you were saying that the Cousins portion was different. I didn't look back at the Wilson portion.

    I typically don't put people on ignore and I figured you shouldn't be the only person I have on ignore so I took you off. You like to troll, but me ignoring you won't fix that. lol
     
  37. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't troll. I correct. So stop being incorrect, and you won't see me ;)

    And stop mentioning Brady. :tongue2:
     
  38. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Football Outsiders has released their annual pressure vs no pressure findings.

    Here are the rankings of those 18 qualifying QBs without pressure over the last 5 seasons:

    1. Wilson
    2. Brady
    3. Rodgers
    4. Rivers
    5. Brees
    6. Ryan
    7. Roethlisberger
    8. Kaepernick
    9. Smith
    10. Dalton
    11. Palmer
    12. Newton
    13. Luck
    14. Tannehill
    15. Stafford
    16. Flacco
    17. Eli
    18. Fitzpatrick


    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016
     
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  39. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    This won't be good for a few folks around here. Especially when you look at Moore.
     
  40. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Would love to know what those stats were over the last ten games Tanny played. Because he was playing better than his previous years.
     

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