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TANNEHILL VERSUS THE WORLD: THE IN-DEPTH COMPARISON TANNEHILL’S CRITICS DON’T WANT YOU TO READ

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Samphin, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Samphin

    Samphin Κακό σκυλί ψόφο δεν έχει

    New article from Lazaro Montecruz

    https://welcometoperfectville.com/2...son-tannehills-critics-dont-want-you-to-read/
     
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  2. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is this article old?

    Wilson is much better from the pocket then when leaving it by the way.
     
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  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    That is a great clickbait title.
     
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  4. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    usually when you have to debate about a qb this much, something is wrong
     
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  5. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Usually it means they play quarterback.
     
  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Actually a good point. If you go to Packer forums probably not a lot of debate. Tampa forums is sure there are. Luck. Mariota. How about Raiders. After year 1 definitely. Year 2? Carr faded at the end. Last year was pretty damn good.
     
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  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    basically, you are just guessing.
     
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It looks like a lot of that article was written at the start of 2016...although it alludes to being the full season.
     
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  9. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    I'm actually tired of reading and debating Tannehill. I just feel the past (based on who we should have drafted or traded for after Tannehill) is a waste of time. I also feel the past performances of him, whether it was himself, the line, the coaching, the run game, no TE, or WRs, is history. Miami has made strides and not sat on their hands. Their FO has changed, their coaching has changed, their personnel has changed and their plans have changed. With this transformation, it is all on Tannehill now. There are no more excuses, whether it is him or not. Jamil Douglas, Billy Turner and Dallas Thomas are gone. We have a team to support him and it is not crazy to expect him to carry us for a game or two. We should expect elite play, because in year 2, Gase has quietly built an offensive juggernaut
     
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  10. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    You're going to debate it and you're going to like debating it!
     
  11. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Lol. Fine!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't get the "there's no more excuses" stuff. Injuries can always change what the end result could have been.

    Barring injuries, yes, I expect Tannehill to do well. However, there are a myriad of reasons why the team could do worse than last year, that have literally nothing to do with Tannehill.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We actually had all the pieces in place last year....it's just a matter of the players realizing that they can take over football games and dominate. We didn't see that at all last season except for Moore's 1st game; that's the attitude Tannehill needs to have though. Just go out and perform.
     
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  14. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I disagree. I thought we saw that against the 49ers and the Cardinals until he got hurt.
     
  15. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not a blind guess. Blind Guessing would be me asking you how many people are at this bar right now. You would have to guess with zero available facts.
     
  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    For me, no more excuses isn't predicate on the team success. Just isolating what Tanny does and seeing individual improvement or not. Now, I'm not in the no excuses camp, but some excuses
     
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  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    A guess is a guess.
    I did read comments after the season about Carr being, "not that good" and just a product of having one of the best offensive lines in the league.
     
  18. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Like a QB player is a football player. But there are good ones, and bad ones. We're really going to get into semantics. Call it what you want. I hypothesized one of the greatest QBs of all time, doesn't have as much debate amongst their fans than other QBs. Call it what you wish.
     
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well it's not difficult to test. Here are some GB forums:

    http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewforum.php?f=17
    http://packerrats.com/forumdisplay.php?9-Green-Bay-Packers
    https://www.packerforum.com/forums/packer-fan-forum.20/
    http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/forumdisplay.php?89-Green-Bay-Packers

    Basically the topics have little to do with the QB or it's appreciation of the QB (even entire threads on that), and there's some debate as to how much others benefit from Rodgers. But no QB controversy or anything close to it I can find in ~10 minutes browsing some threads.

    So jdang is right here it seems (as in not a lot of critical debate).
     
  20. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Probably one of those things One doesn't even need to verify but good job doing so :D
     
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  21. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I've browsed Bengal forums from time to time and the debates there have been eerily similar to here.

    Giants fans have had a love/hate relationship with Eli since he's been there. Same goes for Flacco and the Ravens. Thats the best we can hope for, a lot of misery with a bit of glory sprinkled in. And that would not bother me so much if everybody was on the same page.
     
  22. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have to figure Dalton discussions were even more polarized.
     
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  23. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    IMO, a lot of fans negative perceptions of Tannehill are due to the media's influence. Most of the media (national and some local) is not high on Tannehill, that, in turn, makes some people think Tannehill isn't good which leads to the debates.

    Tannehill is like the anti-Luck in that sense, IMO. Luck and Tannehill have had a very similar career so far stats-wise (sans playoff appearences) as has been proven in prior threads/discussions, yet one is put on a pedestal and the other is spit on... again, most of it is due to media spin.
     
  24. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    The line was only intact for 4-5 games
     
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  25. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    how that guy is qb still there, if you ask fans, is surprising
     
  26. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Being up here in GB country I can tell you that they LOVE Rodgers. However, at times I do hear and read criticism about him from GB fans. I got into a debate with a Packers fan I work with at the beginning of last season. Just to be clear, he's a very informed and smart guy (he's a cardiologist) and has been a Packers fan his entire life. He was saying that he thought the Packers should trade Rodgers "soon" because he's fading.

    Anyhow, and to save space because that debate was pretty long, I think fans get emotional over their teams and a lot of times don't use critical thinking. It's mostly knee-jerk comments and opinions based upon the "right now". Rodgers has a string of bad games and some fans want him gone. I've seen it with Pats fans and even with Dolphins fans when Marino was playing. Currently we see it with RT. Fans get tunnel vision because they believe the "QB's win Super Bowls" mantra that the media puts out there and think they need a QB who is Rodgers or Marino in order to win a Super Bowl. In reality you need a good team to win a Super Bowl.
     
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  27. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    It depends on which fans you ask. A lot felt like Dalton would have won the SB with Houstons team last year.
     
  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I can't really get too enthused about rankings based articles. For me the difference from the average is more important than the rank. The z-score in particular tells you far more than ranking.
     
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  29. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Do you realize you actually just debated it, even though you're tired of it? :lol: As someone else said, you will debate it, and you will like it! :lol:

    Sorry dirty... I had to. :lol: :up:
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I just decided not to comment on the article itself (up till now obviously!) because the "methodology" is useless to put it nicely and it's not like QBR from ESPN where I think it's really important to push back on a serious attempt to pass off something that isn't even a statistic as a stat.

    But since you bring it up lol..

    Let me say that while what you say is true because z-scores actually measure things and ranks don't (for those who don't know.. z-scores are standard deviation units and actually measure the distance between points while rank isn't a measure because the "distance" between rank 3 and 4 need not mean the same thing as the "distance" between rank 10 and 11), you could use z-scores everywhere and the "methodology" would still be.. how should I put this nicely? Useless lol.

    The biggest single issue is that multiple stats that shouldn't be treated equally in importance are weighted equally when combined into a single stat. For example, completions per game has essentially a ZERO correlation with win% yet the rank on completions is treated equal to stuff like Y/A which has a relatively high correlation??

    The absolute minimum would be to weight the different components by correlation to win%, or absent that just choose only those stats that have similar correlations to win% (at least the components of passer rating have similar correlations to win% or the first thing you'd point out with passer rating is what I just said).

    But with so many components I'd argue just weighting things by correlation to win% might be problematic too because some of those components are highly correlated with each other, meaning you're measuring similar things in two or more components effectively recreating the problem, etc..

    Anyway, there are ways to correct for all that but no need to even go that far. Other issues are the use of subjective cutoffs and pff-style stuff (e.g. Fahey) mixed in with a pure stats-based approach. It's probably best to keep those worlds separate because mixing in pff-style stuff with stats just ruins the stats based approach.


    OK.. rant (mostly) over. Just going to point out something you might be interested in: there are ways of turning multiple rankings into a single measure (bypassing the need to use stuff like z-scores). There's something called non-metric multidimensional scaling that will take a whole set of different rankings and reduce its dimensionality. So if you have N rankings you can estimate where the points lie in any dimension less than N. In our case you'd estimate where they lie in a 1-D space, and when you do that you get a true measure, just like z-scores.
     
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LOL, I said we had the pieces. It's not my fault those pieces were broken...we still had em! =)
     
  32. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To be fair, he was pretty mediocre the first few years here. But year 5, he blew up. Year 6, came back down. If he has another strong year, you can accept a QB that has a good year, a mediocre year, etc.

    Dalton was the best argument for being patient with Tanny. If it's just a one hit wonder though, I'm looking at possible projects in the draft.
     
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  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's exactly why I wasn't going to comment either. That article had a ton of work/research behind it and I wasn't going to try to discredit the stats as not being a true measure. Completion percentage is definitely not equal to TD's or pass attempts, for instance. The rushing stats aren't exactly relevant since we know Tannehill was told to stay in the pocket the first few years and never run.

    And of course, the whole "unavoidable sacks" stat is BS since it's calculation formula is BS. The "interceptable passes" is also a convenient stat for a team that throws half their passes within 1 yard of the LOS. I put very little faith in Fahey in general, so I'm bothered by any analysis based on Fahey's analysis. For instance, when we twist a stat into overall accuracy....Tannehill's dump off passes to a RB in 2013 should be more accurate than Cam or Carr throwing 6-10 yards. That's not a metric to measure with, it's common sense since our line stunk and we had more 3 and outs than anyone back then. Yet here's a metric saying that Tannehill was thriving when he clearly wasn't.

    I do appreciate the effort because a ton of work went into that article, but there was a lot taken for granted as well.
     
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  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why is it a negative that a raw QB with limited college starts wasn't top 5 in the league his first couple of years? Especially considering the lackluster offensive weapons during those years, the bad oline, and the coaching carousel?
     
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  35. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Well, when you put it like that......makes sense. I was really expecting more from Bill Lazor's offense. Forgetting talent, the playcalling was questionable


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  36. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Because we had to wait for him to develop with no guarantee he would develop. Let's hope he keeps developing but don't be so critical of posters who didn't want their NFL team to groom a developmental QB.

    I don't even expect top 5 (long shot) but his peak has been top 12'ish. Top 8 is what I want my QB to be, if possible.
     
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Think about it- the Fins led the league in 3 and outs and had one of the league's lowest scoring offenses for several of the years mentioned here. And that proves Tannehill's growth is better than Marino's? Oh hell no- I think it shows that the team really sucked in all facets of the offense. Just because we're doing better now doesn't mean there was phenomenal growth in our QB.

    You can't have it both ways. If the line and the receivers are the reason Tannehill had some rough years, then they're also a reason why he had a good year. You can't blame all the bad on others, credit all the good on Tannehill, and then cherry pick stats to call something objective. The truth of the matter is that Tannehill is a solid young QB with tons of potential. Either you believe that or you don't, but stats aren't ever going to prove anything about one component in a team sport.

    The only true comparison we have is what Moore has done on the field in the exact same role with the exact same surroundings; that's the only head-to-head, unbiased data available here. And remember, Moore hadn't had serious reps in about five years- Tannehill got well over 90% of those in practice. So it's still an unfair comparison really...Moore should get bonus points somehow. Yet nobody wants to hear those head-to-head stats-

    Highest scoring game? Matt Moore
    Best TD/Int ratio? Matt Moore
    Best third down efficiency? Matt Moore
    Best overall QB rating? Matt Moore

    Can we see how stats work? Matt Moore is clearly the better QB if we only look at the numbers. Football is not about numbers though, it's about execution and winning football games. Stats only tell a part of that story...it's never the story itself.

    So I'll say it again- Tannehill is an insanely talented young QB with amazing potential.

    Let's not try voting him into the HOF just yet though...maybe we should wait until we consistently beat a few playoff teams and actually win in the playoffs. Or hell, back to back winning records would work. But you're not going to sell that the most sacked QB over the last 5 seasons with one of the worst conversion percentages on 3rd down is a top 5 QB. That's about as objective as I can possibly be.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We "had to wait for him to develop"?? Seriously? You have to wait for basically EVERY QB to develop. Even Andrew Luck hasn't been an elite QB, and he had a much better pedigree and resume. That attitude, actually, I think is what has fostered so much of the disagreements and arguments on the site.
     
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  39. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I did some number crunching on some other threads, and Lazor's playcalling was really bad whenever the Phins were playing from behind. The TL;DR version is that Tannehill suffered a 15 point drop off in passer rating when behind with Lazor's playcalling but when he was under Sherman or Gase there is no drop off when behind. Also in year 2 of Lazor (when every man and his dog knew the restrictions Lazor had put on audibles/changing plays at the LOS) Tannehill had a really bad rating when blitzed, but under Gase Tannehill had great numbers.
     
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  40. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You just put forth an argument about why he's taking longer to develop (limited college starts).

    Andrew Luck in year 3, threw for 40 TDs. Something only 8 QBs have done, EVER. 4700 yards, 7.7 ypa. 7th highest passer rating. 40 TDs is something Tanny may never pull off. You hope he gets to 30-34 consistently like Rivers.

    Andrew Luck on a torn shoulder had a damn good year individually in 2016 (and let's not talk about their surrounding circumstances .. nobody on here is trading Indy for Miami). Tanny, had a promising year.

    Indy fans hope Luck gets even better. But he's developed.

    Kirk Cousins, year 4, first year starting. Developed. Marcus Mariota, looks pretty good In a new offense, 2nd year starter. He had college starts but not in a pro-style offense, he came from a run and shoot. Wilson. Carr. There are plenty of QBs with different situations that developed pretty quick in the NFL.

    So when you take someone raw at #8 overall, and you start him right away, you're literally giving him a college education in the pros. It is what it is, and if some fans who spend a lot of money disagree with that, I think it's okay. I don't care, and that's why I don't use it as an excuse.

    He was drafted and started in the NFL. These are real games. If he started 1 game in college, or 44, doesn't matter to me. He was inserted into an NFL game and I'll judge his performance as is. You get handed the keys to the franchise, you're getting judged day 1 like everyone else.

    He's here, he's solidified the next two years starting at least. What's in the past, is that. But if someone wants to criticize that it took 5 years just to get here, I think that's fair.
     

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