Suprising Stats on Miami's Pass Attack

As to why he would use PA so infrequently its because he probably started to go away from it once we were behind in games last year. Thats just a guess. Ive seen a lot of coaches do that over the years.

It was probably effective for a few reasons. One our reputation last year was that we were a grinding, running team. Look at our skill players last year. Our most feared weapon was Bush. Our WR's and TE's scared no one until Hartline started playing well and that didnt exactly put the fear of God in opponents. Tannehill also carried out fakes really well. Combine those factors and teams probably were selling out to stop the run leaving a lot of man coverage.

Our new weapons are going to help PA a lot imo. Keller can work the seems. Wallace gets downfield as well as anyone. Gibson has size that Bess just doesnt have. Hartline now has players around and should see coverage vs opponents 2nd best CB's. As long as Tannehill continues to improve in all facets we're on our way up.

 

TBH, thought Sherman wanted THill to develop as a pocket passer w/o play action first and foremost, he wanted him to learn to survey the field more quickly.

 

I've talked about this before but Ryan Tannehill's play-action passer rating was the fourth highest in the league last year at 121.2.

However, his non-play-action passer rating was the third LOWEST in the league at a mere 67.7.

And you're right, Miami didn't seem to utilize play-action enough. I suppose they didn't anticipate there would be such a disparity between their success.

 

Hey CK...

Typically....when a team is looking at their own statistics..like is shown above, how long would they wait before reading anything into them, and making a change based on that. Having a seasons worth of data, youd think Sherman would adjust his offense to allow more PA, but, wouldnt they wait until they collected a good amount of that data before doing that? I hope I worded that correctly..lol.

 

I expect a big increase in PA from Miami this year. I'm envisioning a ton of middle runs and middle run fakes where RT either hits quick passes to Keller or Gibson or zone reads and keeps it and runs around the end. And obviously a few of those where RT PAs and then throws it deep to Wallace. I see that middle run as the planned staple of our offense. That's why Miller is so important. If he continues to be what he was last year but with a heavier workload and obviously RT continues to develop then we could see a big offensive jump this year.

 

I think we are gonna see a big jump...."if everyone is healthy" just because the freakin field is gonna be opened up. Having Wallace is gonna be huge...takes the top off..but...I really think having Kellar in there is gonna be even more beneficial. I mean..if you look back ....through the years....when is the last time we saw our team have the potential...to have so much open space on the field? I really cant remember the last time. Has to be back when Marino was here...

 

I don't know. I imagine many teams would not adjust based on statistics period but would rather adjust based on their own observations of what their players do well and what they don't. They should be adjusting every week based on that.

 

Dan Henning finds the bolded absolutley ridiculous.

 

I can answer this a bit. As of now, teams that are "statistically challenged" (read they don't have an analytics department) do a little bit of statistics from week to week. At least one team does basic scouting with 'stats' on their opponent. In their scouting report they'll note what a QB's rating is in certain situations (3rd downs, 1st quarter), etc. It's nothing advanced, but they do put a bit of work in on their opponent. As I understand, quality control coaches do a bit of statistics on their own team, but they're often couched within the week's reports rather than a standalone recommendation.

I do know that the Dolphins are getting a little bit more wise to the analytics game. As far as I know they're not creating an analytics department, but they're talking with the relevant people, consulting around, etc. I expect they'll have access to more advanced data starting this season. How they'll use it, I have no clue.

 

IIRC screens were a big part of the GB offense when Sherman was there and later when Philbin was the OC. We also have focused on more mobile lineman since the coaching change (with Pouncey already in place as one of the best pulling Cs). The second year in the system should make the timing easier as well. (Screens are largely about timing). All that makes it seem likely that we'll see more screens. It would be a nice constraint play if we had just tried some deep PA plays. I could see Wallace creating a ton of space for the screen to work.

 

Wish I had this data available. One of the few things my database is missing.

 

I think the Dolphins are probably going to shape up to use more PA than last year. I think this team is going to look a lot more similar to the Texan than the Packers. They seem to be orienting more towards I-form/2-TE packages, and the play action I think would ease some of the route issues with Mike Wallace.

 

B/c play action takes the Qb's off of the Defense, they may not have been comfortable with THill's ability to do that early in the season and still read the Defense quickly and make the proper decision.

 

Tannehill felt uncomfortable in the pocket. His lack of mobility in the pocket made the OL look bad and at times the blocking was pretty bad and that made him gun shy and dump off even during the times when he had decent blocking and more time to survey the field. The play action cuts the field in half but it gavee him more time. I think the play action was successful due to poor OL blocking and Tannehill's lack of pocket awareness and confidence in his protection.

 

As I watch the NFL Network top 10 players thing they just showed Aldon Smith destroy Martin on the way to getting Tannehill in the pocket I read this haha

 

AS if Martin was the only LT that A Smith beat last yr.

 

Or you look at the entirety of your passing options on many plays was Hartline and Bess who get virtually no separation, let alone get it quickly. Tannheill was 30th in the league with amount of time to throw. That means he had very little time, less than 2.5 seconds little. And what little time he had, he had to buy more with a gimp knee most of the season.

I think a whole lot of people are about to be amazed how much of his "faults" are going to vanish this year with a real supporting cast of skill players.

 

I hear you man but the timing was funny though, also Smith didn't dominate everyone like he did Martin on that one play I was referring to, there is a reason that was the first highlight

 

Waste of time and resources..

 

Having access to more information is never a waste of time and resources.

 

When it comes to making a personnel decisions, waste of time, if your telling me it can sway your decision making I would want no part of you on a scouting staff.

The only stats that matter in today's game are that of Pff, but I really don't consider the numbers they produce Stats..the numbers your talking about do not take into account variables..

 

I agree. I didn't see lack of mobility in the pocket from RT except when he was injured. What I saw was him getting back there on quick passes and having to hold the ball b/c the receiver wasn't open when he was ready to release and then having the protection break down as he went to the second read.

 

I know everyone has their own opinions on analytics, stats, etc. Some choose to utilize them heavily, some lightly, some not at all. I'll just say, the NFL is trending that way. At least 20 teams use some package of data. The 49ers have been heavily into analytics for years now (see the panel from this year's Sloan Conference) and have had some good results. Off the top of my head the Bears, Jags, Bills, Browns, Ravens, and 49ers all have some sort of dedicated analytics departments. Those are just the first.

I know a team's FO that was interested in establishing analytics within their organization. Here's the basic rundown of what they're looking at:

• Use for advance opponent scouting. Look at opponent's trends to take advantage of weaknesses, strengths, etc. They do this on a small scale now, but would potentially ramp it up.
• Use in personnel decision making. IE...draft and free agency. Similar to some of the stuff I have posted, but more tailored to a team's needs
• Use in player valuation. A little bit like Moneyball or what PFF does with their performance over value rankings.

Aside from that, at least one other recently successful team that I know of is working on putting together an analytics department now. Hate it, love it - analytics are permeating the NFL and will become a bigger and bigger part of teams. Football metrics will never predict well like in baseball, but teams seem to believe more information is better.

 

It can, as what happens is a flood of information comes in and finding the useful from the useless tends to get more difficult as more information is added.

 

Again, more information is never a bad thing. You can combine the scouts mind as well as the statistics to come to the best conclusion possible.

 

That happens if you are careless and unorganized. I doubt that happens within leagues such as the NFL, NBA and MLB. They can handle that much information. Anything to improve the team.

 

I'm of the belief that too much info is often a bad thing. What matters is relevant, or in the case of scouting, predictive info. IMO most of the stuff people post about when looking at QB prospects is useless, for example. It makes people feel smart or informed but it just clouds the issue. I remember getting into debates about Kaepernick's release and throwing motion. My position was that it was fast enough so nothing else about his release mattered. But others did all kinds of film study and nitpicked at reasons he would fail. IMO they had too much info and b/c of that made the wrong call. Usually you only need a few pieces of key info. The rest is unnecessary. The trick is figuring out which is which.

 

I can see it in terms of scouting an opponents weakness, but here's why I say waste of time, because your still going to have to do the film work on all counts..personnel, opponents weaknesses..free agency...and if any staff is making blind decisions off stats, they won't have their positions very long..

I'm open minded, give me a scenario where using stats will save me time.?

 

Agreed on all counts Rafs..

I remember that long debate about his release..it fooled a lot of folks, a lot of respected ones as well..

 

Lol... I Think Rafs summed it up well..

Listen, some can use their metrics, analytics, stats, I'll do things my way, and we'll see who gets 'em right more than wrong...

I will say that PFF stuff, blows any stat monkeys *** up.

 

Didnt we run a play action Hail Mary one year?