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Sparano's Statistical winning formula

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by padre31, Aug 12, 2009.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    http://myespn.go.com/blogs/afceast

    Interesting, I did not know we were THAT poor at converting 3rd downs, now the exciting thing is:

    per Football Outsiders:

    http://footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics

    This means barring some epic divergence from the mean of performance, we will see an offense that is greatly improved this season.
     
  2. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I think that's where the passing game development is key. We were basically dead if we 3rd and 7 or longer. I don't think we were horrible at third down conversions otherwise. We were great at those 3rd and shorts with Polite and Bess and Cam provided reliable targets for those 3rd and 6 or less situations. But a negative run, and incompletion, a small penalty or sack on 2nd down often doomed us to punt. I really saw that as a weakness last year when I was pushing for a WR early in the draft. Hopefully internal development and/or Turner/Hartline will be enough to address this. And of course hopefully OL improvement as well.
     
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  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think last season we discovered the limits of our offensive personnel and scheme, and this offseason we've built from their by adding White, Turner, Hartline and Jake Grove.

    Henning also knows the limits of Pennington as well.
     
  4. PhinsRock

    PhinsRock Premium Member Luxury Box

    This staff did everything right to accomplish two of these things in the offseason:

    1. they improved the offense, the OL, the WR's, and the goal is to get better on 3rd down.

    2. they significantly improved our LB core, and our defensive backfield, and the pass rush, all of which should vastly improve our D's ability to get off the field on 3rd down.

    Now to see what they've done to improve ST's, and I'll feel like we have significantly improved all the key areas that needed to improve, so we can compete against a much tougher schedule, and WIN! :up:
     
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  5. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    ties into what Omar blogged about:

    [​IMG]

    This is one of the better articles so far this season as it touches on one of the topics that get me going. Getting off the field on third down!

    http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sport...olphins-desire-major-gains-on-thirddowns.html
     
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  6. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Kinda like a "Football Sabermetrics". Ray Finkle and Phunwin just had their ears perk up.
     
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  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    If I have one complaint about HC Sparano's Coaching Philosophy it is he does not approach Special Teams ability to contribute to wins.

    The FO link mentions that on a team, Defense accounts for 3, offense accounts for 3, and special teams accounts for 1, however we lose 150yds plus a game via poor special teams play either in coverage, or returns.

    We tried maybe one onside kick last season, we settled for D Bess's poor punt return yardage, and Sparano's allowed Ted Ginn to underperform on kick off returns.

    To me in sum HC Sparano does not take that unit as seriously as he does offense and defense and that is a mistake imho.
     
  8. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    can only do so much at one time
    Secial Teams in 2009, then NT & ILB for next season
     
  9. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't agree with the characterization that this team doesn't focus on STs. That's always been a big focus by Parcells. They spent much of last season using waiver pick ups to improve the STs. Sparano routinely praises players who play well on STs. Even in that article above he mentioned "hidden yards" which is in part a function of the STs exchanges between teams. According to Muck most of today's practice was STs.

    I expect that our STs will be vastly improved this year largely due to how much this team has focused on it.
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Disagree Rafael, there will be no Larry Izzo's on Sparano's roster, they view ST's as a sort of player development unit, if they can get by on ST but Sparano can see them playing their native position like WR or CB then and only then will he keep them on the roster.

    imho, that is a mistake and guarantees a mediocre at best unit, a player is better of learning how to play Wr or Cb and just survive on ST rather than thrive on ST.
     
  11. emale2u1

    emale2u1 Season Ticket Holder

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    22 plus 19 equals 41 ... hope this wasn't Sparano's math.
     
  12. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    And I truly believe that it will improve from last year, because of few things;

    1) Offensive Line: We don't know exactly what are we going to get out of this unit, baring any setbacks, but I will take a bet that this years projected starters (Jake, Smiley, Grove, Thomas, Carey) will be a bit better than last year. They went through an off season together. Throught the offseason we got numerous reports that these guys hung out together, and jelled as teammates. Plus, they meet with Chad1 every week, and im sure they don't discuss what they did the previous weekends.

    2) Developement of wide outs. The fact that receivers went thought a year and an offseason together. Out of all the guys, Camarillo is our most experienced one (I might be wrong on this one) Bess stepped in, and did a great job filling in for GC, despite being a rookie. GC himself was a favorite target of Chad's before he got hurt, now they got an offseason together, and we all know that time for Ginn is now or never (at least on this team) He has all the ducks lined up for him. With the 3d years reciever rule, and timing with Chad. And again, twice a week meetings. Pretty sure they don't discuss their love life.

    4)The fact that Chad himself have been here for a year. Last season, he showed up for first game of preseason. Think about it. And he STILL had his best statistical year with the oline and the receiving corp that we had. He meets with Oline and wide outs. He started his offseason program in february, and he feels (and coaches comment on that also) that he has more velocity than before. Maybe all he needed was a right place and a right time, and the place and time just might be HERE and NOW :up:

    Of course, injuries will happen, and stuff will go wrong. But i still believe that an offseason spent here will benefit him big time.
     
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  13. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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    I think every area of this team will be improved: Offense, Defense, and yes Special Teams. Despite what some are saying, I believe the Special Teams will be better and it will help converted all of that into some wins!!
     
  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe that you don't care about STs if you don't have a roster spot set aside for a STs ace. I think what's important is whether you emphasize and practice STs and if you have several players that have skills and get used to playing together. I also think the quality of those players is largely dictated by the back half of your roster.

    IMO it's clear that the Dolphins emphasize STs by how often Sparano mentions it and how often the practice reports say that the sessions were STs focused. I also think we have several players (Cobbs, London, Walden, Culver, etc) who are very good STs players.
     

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