So....forgetting the draft, are we a better team than that one exiting the playoffs?

Yes, those all tell you things. But what you're not understanding is that those things happen on both sides of the line. We are talking about enough samples that you can say it all comes out in the wash. This is why I'm trying to stress to you that these are different parts of the same line on the same team during the same games against the same opponents and with the same RBs. When those variables are all the same it is perfectly ok and valid to do what we're doing.

Unless of course, you think those things affect different sides of the line differently. For what you're saying to be true, you're going to have to show that things like outlier runs, RB effort, RB misdiagnosing blocking in front of him, TE's on one side of the formation, etc. affect one side of the line over the other.

What you're saying is true if we're trying to find fault or not in one player or another, one line over another, one team over another. But that's not what we're doing.

 

The fact that you're still thinking and writing in singular terms, see the words I stressed, proves that you still don't understand what's going on.

And you've been writing like this the entire time even after you've been corrected multiple times.

Once more, no one is talking about individual linemen.

 

The Dallas Cowboys were one of the top rushing offenses in the league. That doesn't mean their offensive line was any good though. I'll have to see how PFF graded them and also look at the nuances. hahahahaa

 

I almost forgot.....And the Cubs ERA...of course.

 

He's right though. I even realized afterwards that it can be a limited stat - which is why I followed up with a comment about the nature of Gase's playcalling keeping defenses off-balance and the fact that we had one of the best tackle shedders in the game. I didn't even account for WR/TE run blocking. Prior to this year James had been forgettable in the run blocking department.

We would definitely need some more in-depth number crunching, but from the watching the games this year it was clear the left side was the more dominant in terms of pure run-blocking. It was noted many times over the season by analysts and broadcasters. That's not a surprise given the talent level over there.

 

Because you dont get that just as bad as YPC is for individual lineman, it is equally bad if you just happen to combine 2 lineman and call it a side. Individual, collective, however you want to do it, YPC is a bad stat to use to look at run blocking.

 

Except the only way to determine what impact those things have, without just blindly throwing out without any knowledge, is to look at the tape of the individual lineman or sides of the line. you say those things even out, but you have no actual information that they do. If we had Tyron Smith at LT and Zack Martin at LG, and Dallas Thomas and Columbo at RG and RT, do you think we would have a similar blocking strategy on each side? Do you think we would probably have a blocking TE more on the one side?

All of this is to say that YPC alone is a horrific way of evaluating run blocking. And its why i give credence to the OPINIONS on PFF, because they are much more informed, in depth, and knowledgeable, even if they arent always 100% correct, than you guys giving YPC stats for each side of the line and then just blindly saying that everything evens out without having any knowledge that it actually does. Film in combination with a multitude of statistics is the best way to determine the effectiveness of our run blocking. Not YPC as the end all be all.

 

Then I guess it's just magic and pixie farts, that the numbers come out pretty evenly. I know, maybe Jay's right leg is shorter than his left so he can't break tackles as well on left.

At this point, you're reaching for tin-foil hat levels.

 

The part of his fairytale I like best is: "...than you guys giving YPC stats for each side of the line and then just blindly saying that everything evens out without having any knowledge that it actually does."

Am I missing something? Did I not show that the rushing yards and ypc were EVEN? What else do we need to know in regards to run blocking? Shoe sizes? Height and weight? What each lineman had for breakfast?

I understand that when you evaluate individuals you need to concentrate on that individual.

But, I think when evaluating a unit, ie right vs left side of an o-line, in regards to run blocking I'll use actual ****ing rushing yards. You know, the entire ****ing reason for run blocking.

 

Clearly, in your ignorance, which by the way is inexcusable, you forgot to account for the geographical positioning of each stadium in regards to the magnetic poles of the planet. Furthermore, your lack of football acumen raises it's ugly head again when we realize the glaring omission of Jay Ajayi's country of birth. Even a drunken toddler knows people from his country drive and break tackles on different sides than Americans do.

 

I do apologize for my ignorance...

Please everybody....teach me.

 

Impossible. You know everything.

 

I'm sure it seems that way to you for most people you meet.

 

You ever notice how the same people that over and over tell you are wrong also tell you that you think you're right all the time....without an ounce of understanding the hypocrisy in what they just said?

 

lol...

 

Do they think arguments are between one person who thinks they're right and another person who is open to any point?

 

I don't believe they "think" at all...

 

And again, Im not sure how you dont get how many variables come into play on any 1 given rushing play, but rushing yards per carry doesnt tell you the whole story. If you're completely ok with knowingly putting an entire evaluation into one statistic for anything to tell the whole story, that about sums up the uselessness of any conversation.

Again, like ERA in baseball, YPC by itself is not very helpful to evaluate run blocking. It is a basic ratio stat that gives you an overview of the results, but tells you nothing about the process. Process>results. If you want to use YPC on top of other stats in furtherance of your point, go ahead, that's fine. But using a broad YPC average as your sole determinant of run blocking? ****ing stupid. 2 pitchers can have a 3 ERA, but 1 pitcher can give up a bunch of solo homers every once in a while and never anything else, while the other pitcher walks 20 guys a game but pitches around them and has the same ERA. Does that make both pitchers the same?

I will leave this alone when you guys can answer my hypothetical instead of completely ignoring it yet again, or without any proof "saying it all evens itself out." If the left side of the line opens up a nice hole, Ajayi hits the hole for 5 yards and then the right side completely ****s the bed the next play but ajayi makes a guy miss in the backfield and picks up 5, the YPC is the same. Does that mean the performance of the run blocking on each side was even in those plays? You can use the logical lazy crutch of "it all evens out," but you have no actual proof that it does. Nor any further information or stats about the variables I explained such as TE help, WR help, depth of the running backs first point of contact with a defender on each side, etc.

I have no problem admitting i'm wrong and saying that the right side of the offensive line was good if you actually do more than say, "uhhh yards equal, they same!!!" Process > result.

 

Reaching for tin foil hat levels? By not relying on one basic overview stat and actually looking into the process that that overview stat is being comprised from.

An explanation from DVOA on why they dont just look at basic counting stats:
"One of the most difficult goals of statistical analysis in football is somehow isolating how much responsibility for a play lies with each of the 22 men on the field. Nowhere is this as obvious as the running game, where one player runs while up to nine other players -- including wideouts, tight ends, and fullback -- block in different directions. None of the statistics we use for measuring rushing -- yards, touchdowns, yards per carry -- differentiate between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line. Neither do our advanced metrics DVOA and DYAR."

If you want an actual look at in depth statistics as to how our OL performed to each side, go to http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

P.S. they say you are wrong.

Our adjusted line yards which takes into account all the variables i am talking about to runs off the LT- 5.05
To the LT- 3.65
Mid/Guards- 3.70
To the RT- 3.22
Off the RT- 3.26

Keep relying on that YPC though.

Edit- Here is their explanation of what that stat represents and ill give you another link for why you are just so beyond wrong it is funny as hell.
"Runs are listed by the NFL in seven different directions: left/right end, left/right tackle, left/right guard, and middle. Further research showed no statistically significant difference between how well a team performed on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard, so we also list runs separated into five different directions. Note that there may not be a statistically significant difference between right tackle and middle/guard either, but until we can research further (and for the sake of symmetry) we do still split out runs behind the right tackle separately.

These splits allow us to evaluate subsections of a team’s offensive line, but not necessarily individual linemen, as we can’t account for blocking assignments. We don't know when a guard is pulling and when a guard is blocking straight ahead. We know that some runners are just inherently better going up the middle, and some are better going side to side, and we can't measure how much that impacts these numbers. We have no way of knowing the blocking contribution made by fullbacks, tight ends, or wide receivers."
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#aly

 

You're right that no one in this thread has presented statistical evidence that similar YPC on the left vs. right sides weren't due to totally different circumstances.

So? You've also presented no evidence that the "process" pff uses is superior to using a simple stat like YPC. You keep claiming pff is superior because they look at tons of film. Guess what? That's NOT evidence their approach is superior. Evidence would be showing their results help make better predictions, say of win% or how well Ajayi does in the next game, etc..

Right now.. all you have is faith in pff, so it's hypocritical to ask others for evidence all the different possible factors "even out".

 

You should probably take a look at my last post. And any process looking at every player on every play from every game from every team on film is going to be more informed than any basic YPC stat you can find anywhere. doesnt make them always right, it makes them a hell of a lot more informed than you.

 

DVOA isn't that great either. Yes, from a pure practical point of view it has better predictive power (i.e. correlations to win%) than pff, but from a methods point of view? No. First, they're not completely transparent, and second they have to also resort to non-principled (objective, but based on assumptions specific to whoever is doing the modeling) methods to get their ratings.

There's real value to using simple stats where the method is transparent and you can show high correlation to win%. I'm saying that not in defense of YPC in the running game because that doesn't correlate well with win%, but I am saying that in defense of simple stats like passer rating vs. DVOA.

 

Right.. you simply don't get it. Not much more one can say.

Really, there's no point in me continuing to argue with you on this, though I'm guessing danmarino and Fin-D will continue to have fun with you.

 

Lol jesus christ you're the one who clearly isnt getting it. But let me guess, football outsiders is also useless and doesnt know what they're talking about and is also just amateurs off the street, right?

By all means, continue to rely on YPC, i dont give a **** what you do.you are straight up being shown by Pro football outsiders why what you are doing is ****ing idiotic, so by all means continue to act like i dont know what im talking about in a condescending way.

 

Ive never said there is no value to using simple stats. I said that alone they are useless, and using a simple stat like YPC is stupid when you are trying to evaluate run blocking. You dont have to agree with their stats, and its quite clear based on what you said that you didnt read what they said about YPC and why it is useless, but at this point in the analyzation of football from all different perspectives, the fact that you cant understand why YPC is a stupid measurement of run blocking is a you problem, not a me problem.

 

Here is their methodology. You dont have to agree with what they are doing, but if you can read this and still think YPC is an accurate measurement of blocking, holy **** that is a you issue.

ADJUSTED LINE YARDS EXPLAINED
One exception to the use of DVOA/DYAR, and the use of "play success" instead of raw yardage, is the rating system for offensive and defensive lines. Actually, these are only measures of running plays, and of course the defensive numbers don't measure just the defensive line, but the whole front seven against the run.

One of the most difficult goals of statistical analysis in football is somehow isolating how much responsibility for a play lies with each of the 22 men on the field. Nowhere is this as obvious as the running game, where one player runs while up to nine other players -- including wideouts, tight ends, and fullback -- block in different directions. None of the statistics we use for measuring rushing -- yards, touchdowns, yards per carry -- differentiate between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line. Neither do our advanced metrics DVOA and DYAR.

We have enough data amassed that we can try to separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. A team might have two running backs in its stable: RB A, who averages 3.0 yards per carry, and RB B, who averages 3.5 yards per carry. Who is the better back? Imagine that RB A doesn't just average 3.0 yards per carry, but gets exactly 3 yards on every single carry, while RB B has a highly variable yardage output: sometimes 5 yards, sometimes -2 yards, sometimes 20 yards. The difference in variability between the runners can be exploited to not only determine the difference between the runners, but the effect the offensive line has on every running play.

We know that at some point in every long running play, the running back has gotten past all of his offensive line blocks. From here on, the rest of the play is dependent on the runner's own speed and elusiveness, combined with the speed and tackling ability of the defensive players. If Frank Gore breaks through the line for 50 yards, avoiding tacklers all the way to the goal line, his offensive line has done a great job -- but they aren't responsible for most of that run. How much are they responsible for?

For each running back carry, we calculated the probability that the back involved would run for the specific yardage on that play, based on that back's average yardage per carry and the variability of their yardage on every play. We also calculated the probability that the offense would get the yardage based on the team's rushing average and variability without the back involved in the play, and the probability that the defense would give up the specific amount of yardage based on its average rushing yards allowed per carry and variability. For example, based on his rushing average and variability, the probability in 2004 that Tiki Barber would have a positive carry was 80% while the probability that Giants would have a positive carry without Barber running was only 73%.

Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5-10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards.

Adjusted Line Yards take every carry by a running back and apply those percentages. (We don’t include carries by receivers, which are usually based on deception rather than straight blocking, or carries by quarterbacks, which are almost always busted passing plays unless they involve someone like Colin Kaepernick or Cam Newton.) Those numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent and whether or not a team is in the shotgun. (Because defenses are generally playing pass when the quarterback is in shotgun, the average running back carry from shotgun last year gained 5.36 yards, compared to just 4.16 yards on other carries.) The adjusted numbers are then normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (in 2013, 4.10 yards).

Runs are listed by the NFL in seven different directions: left/right end, left/right tackle, left/right guard, and middle. Further research showed no statistically significant difference between how well a team performed on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard, so we also list runs separated into five different directions. Note that there may not be a statistically significant difference between right tackle and middle/guard either, but until we can research further (and for the sake of symmetry) we do still split out runs behind the right tackle separately.

These splits allow us to evaluate subsections of a team’s offensive line, but not necessarily individual linemen, as we can’t account for blocking assignments. We don't know when a guard is pulling and when a guard is blocking straight ahead. We know that some runners are just inherently better going up the middle, and some are better going side to side, and we can't measure how much that impacts these numbers. We have no way of knowing the blocking contribution made by fullbacks, tight ends, or wide receivers.

 

Let me explain something....

Cbrad and I disagree on almost everything. We fight all the time. He's a stat guy and I'm not. Chances are if we met in person we wouldn;t actually get along.

Yet, here we are, agreeing that you're wrong.

 

This is just info for those interested (not even going to try and convince phins18 anymore).

FO does NOT explain their methodology, neither in what phins18 quoted nor anywhere else on their website. So no one should go around acting like they can quote FO's methodology.

I quoted two key groups of sentences in two paragraphs. The first paragraph makes complete sense to any statistician. Based on the distributions of rushing yards, either for a single RB, a team, a defense, etc.. you can obviously calculate a probability of any given rush yard occurring on a specific play.

Then.. the magic wand flies and they go to the second paragraph where they somehow (notice they NEVER show how) come up with their conclusions.

This is NOT a "methodology". There are so many possible ways in which you can adjust for a team, the defense it plays against, the league, etc.. that you can't just assume there is a single, principled way of "applying those percentages".

It's total bogus, at least based on what they say publicly. And the reason is obvious. Publish the methodology and the warts become transparent to all.

 

Jesus I dont even care anymore. I dont care if you dont like trusted public in depth statistical and film analyzation companies and their stats, their explanation as to just how stupid it is to treat YPC as evidence of anything is enough to prove how stupid you sound quoting YPC on each side of the line to explain run blocking productivity.

 

Thanks for the great attempt cbrad.

In phins18 world the left and right side of the o-line didn't produce the same amount of rushing yards.

lol

I once was curious as to who could eat more, me or my brother.

We each sat down with a pile of oreos.

I ate an entire family size bag of oreos. My brother finished off an entire family size bag of oreos.

Any sane person would agree that it was even.

However, I ate more because I ate the Oreos properly. And that is, I ate the filling first while my bro just crammed the entire thing in his mouth.


Oh, I also ate more because the Braves had a better ERA that season.

 

No, in my world, they produced the same yards, that doesnt mean the run blocking had the same effectiveness on each side. In another example that oyu are sure to misconstrue and not understand, if a QB throws a screen pass 5 feet next to him but completely inaccurately and the receiver makes a great reception and goes 99 yards for a touchdown, and another QB throws a perfectly thrown and placed ball 60 yards downfield in a place only the receiver can catch, are both of those plays for the QB's equal? They both have 99 yards per attempt, 1/1, and a TD.

And if your brother ate a 7 course meal before and youve been stuck in the desert without food for a week, you dont think that would play a part into who could eat more? You mean there could possibly be some sort of other variables that would effect pure eating ability?

The fact that you just made that argument shows you just do not get why YPC is terrible, especially to evaluate line play. You can continue to look at pure output, ill look at the process. Again, process > result.

 

And again, I dont care if you dont like their methodology for their stat. Give me why their rationale for needing to come up with the stat is wrong. We are not arguing about football outsiders stats, we are arguing about the uselessness of YPC. They have given pages worth of reasoning for why they came up with that stat due to the ineffectiveness of evaluating performance based strictly off rush yards/YPC, yet you can only comment on how much you dont like their stat?

 

I should have taken into consideration that Ajayi prefers to run to his right and thus the poor blocking on the right side only allowed him to rush for the same amount of yards as he did on the left. lol...

Also,

I earned $1 million because I sold an invention of mine.

My brother won $1 million because he won the lottery.

I have more money because I earned my million. Right? lol

 

I have a race car that can top out at 200mph.

I have a Hyabusa that can top out at 200mph.

The bike, at 200 mph is slower because it's lighter and thus the engine doesn't have to produce the same amount of horsepower.

Right?


lol

 

The funny thing is you think you are crushing this argument, but you sound ****ing absurd and make yourself look like you have a complete inability to parse details.

Continue to ignore my analogies that show just how misguided your judgment is, but you have yet to refute the main idea of my analogies in that blanket stats without further explanation mean nothing. I.E. the ERA example and PPG in the NBA without looking at efficiency.

 

Yes.

YPC doesn't measure efficiency at all.

lol....

 

You realize im not arguing that the left side produced more yards or yards per carry, correct? How the **** can we have a conversation this long and you still make absolutely ****ing idiotic analogies like this that show a complete inability to comprehend the actual point im making? I have not once disputed that the left and right side had the same YPC. I have stated numerous times and given you plenty of reasons, both thru opinion and credible sources, that say that just using YPC is a horrific example of offenive line effectiveness.

 

BTW, I'm not ignoring your analogies. I'm a huge stats guy. Cbrad is an even bigger stats guy.

The problem, however, is your dismissing one method without offering a better method.

Yes, YPC is simple. However, when I look at the run blocking for either side of the o-line I see they both produced the same number of rushing yards.

I don't really care, for this argument, how that happened. Just that it happened. And the fact of the matter is...both sides produced equally in regards to run blocking.

 

Holy **** you really have no ability to comprehend do you? How do you take that post and think im talking about offensive line efficiency just because i used the word efficiency in reference to the difference in pure scoring output in the nba? How the **** is there still a misconception that what im saying is that there is more to offensive line play and blocking effectiveness than YPC? Not that both sides had the same YPC to each side.

 

I think you're the one who doesn't get it.

Maybe you should go back and read the thread.

Once more:

ROCK SEXTON: The left side excelled at run blocking.

ME: Both the left and right produced the same amount of rushing yards and the same YPC. So if the left excelled then so did the right.