What if the teams that have Rodgers and players like him are (hypothetically) 90% likely to win the Super Bowl in any single year, and the teams that have Tannehill and players like him are just 10% likely? Is that not a "ding" against players like Tannehill? Why does the league clamor for elite QBs and pay them like it does if none of this matters? If the teams with the Tannehills of the world were just as likely to win Super Bowls, Rodgers and the players at his level wouldn't be paid like they are. We all know this stuff already intuitively. Why do you think the fanbase has its finger on the pulse of Tua's performance the way it does? We know the future of the team in terms of winning a Super Bowl hinges largely on him. If he can join the group of elite QBs, the team becomes far more likely to win a Super Bowl. The team can certainly win a Super Bowl if Tua doesn't reach that level, but it's far less likely.