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Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.
Before the Tannehill thread is moved, I would like to concede at this point that Tannehill is indeed a better-than-average QB.
I wouldn't put him in the top tier of QBs in the league (Mahomes, Rodgers, etc.) because he doesn't play like those QBs in obvious passing situations, but I also would also no longer put him in the middle tier of QBs who are simply average. He's clearly distinguished himself from that group at this point in my opinion.
I would've stated this earlier because his play throughout the 2020 season was consistent with it, but I was waiting for the season as a whole to play out before saying anything indicating a definitive position about him either way.
Respect... so does he make your top 10 list now?
I respect that.
I would say he's definitely top 10.
I not a big lover of Tannehill but that's bullcrap.
He's turned the corner in a to a very good QB and went to the AFC Championship game last year, something Miami hasn't done in over 25 years. He may not be elite but he's not a loser.
I only caught small pieces of the game, but sucks they didn't get the victory.
tannehill looked amazing today with no run game to bail him out.
i love how his best wr was in man coverage with no safety over the top and tannehill ignored it. especially since brown was 5 yards passed the DB. man tannehill is the league MVP!!!!
Wow...over 112,226 posts. Can hardly believe this thread is still going strong nearly 15 months since it was first started. But, I posted the following on a FF forum earlier today and feel compelled to add it here:
Tannehill had flashes in Miami but didn't realize his fullest potential there, and probably never would've (at least, not under those HC's/front offices).
As has already been pointed out, it's amazing what a good O-line, one of the best RB's in the game, and a good HC/OC can do for a QB.
Bottom line; he's not in the elite category IMO, but he's definitely a "franchise QB" level QB. He's backed up this season what he showed last season. It was no fluke. He's good. Very good. He's also more athletic than most people give him credit for, and tough as nails. Dude got the crap knocked out of him on a game by game basis behind the O-lines Miami has had for years.
Pretty much sums it up, I think. But, to add to it, what I meant by he's not elite is he needs all those things around him to be successful. He's not a special enough player to carry a team, and he just proved that again today.
The guy's been gone for two years now, though. It's time to move on y'all. Really.
doubt it it's very tough for henry to have a 3rd 1800+ yard season so it'll be even more on tannehill and he'll do what he always has done with no run game. be worse than an average qb.
This is why Tannehill‘s passing volume and the Titans’ “balance” can be problematic:
I voted that he was an above average QB, that's what I thought when he played for us and that's what I think now. Nothing has changed.
This thread has been getting pretty toxic lately. The particular reason for this is people coming in here and posting about how this thread needs to die or criticising those posting in here. I can see no reason for those sorts of posts - at all. At best, they're off topic. At worst, it's tantamount to trolling, because insulting people for posting in a thread isn't ever going to be productive, nor does it address the subject.
So, if you're one of those people, please stop it. If you don't like this thread, don't visit and don't post. If you see something you think is genuinely wrong use the 'Report' button and one of the team will look at it.
If I see anyone else continuing to insult other posters or criticising the thread I'll start handing out points and we'll see how soon some of you earn yourselves a short vacation from the forum.
Just live and let live please.
Now, as regards the future of this Tannehill thread in general, before the start of next season it will be moved to the 'Other NFL' forum. As I posted some time ago, this thread had and has genuine value as a Dolphins thread in so far as it allows us to view the performance of a Dolphins QB in two environments and evaluate not only the QB but the Dolphins team when he was the QB and the performance of the Front Office etc. However, the longer Tannehill's career goes on the less new information is provided for this purpose. Who Tannehill is now and where his career is going and how the Titans are performing are not Dolphins topics. For this reason, once this season concludes and before the 2021 season starts, this thread will be moved to Other NFL. There will be re-direct post left in here when this happens.
Any comments, please PM me or another mod.
Otherwise, enjoy the thread, be productive, and no trolling please.
Good post but I disagree with a couple of things you wrote. The Titans do not have a good OL. They were bottom third in the league for pass blocking. Second, he doesn't need ALL those things to be successful. The running game may help put him in elite statistical territory, but he can clearly be successful without it. Finally, these "special enough to carry a team" comments are beyond old. There are NO QBs special enough to carry a team. Every single QB needs some help. Is Watson special? He won 4 games this year. Wilson? Got pummeled worse than Tannehill in these playoffs.
I think we agree that Tannehill is a very good QB. He is not elite. I've consistently maintained that I believe he is top 10 and that there are a number of QBs in that range that are all good enough to win with.
They all have different strengths and weaknesses. Guys like Watson are much better at the off script stuff. Tannehill, IMO, is much better at throwing into tight windows. So, if you need a guy to run around, extend plays, then throw to guys who are wide open, take Watson. If you can protect well enough and need a guy to throw to covered receivers from the pocket, take Tannehill.
All of these claims are backed up by stats.
The Titans were 24th in the league in pass block win rate.
Tannehill finished 5th in passer rating. Of the top 10 QBs ranked by passer rating, Tannehill had the highest percentage of passes thrown into tight windows (at 18.7%). He also had the lowest expected completion % (i.e. toughest throws). He was third fastest to throw the ball out of the top 10 QBs. Finally, he was tied for the longest average air yards per completion.
So, basically, of the most efficient QBs in the league, Tannehill was completing the longest passes into the tightest windows with the lowest PBWR from his OL. That DOES NOT sound like QB being carried by the running game.
OTOH, his passing volume is lower than the other top QBs and they were able to be a top offense with fewer pass attempts. This is due to the running game. The passing game and running game complemented each other. The running game DID NOT (by the normal statistical measures) make the passing game easy.
Thanks, but none of that matters. We can't go back in time and keep Tannehill. Instead of wallowing in the fact that we let a franchise QB go, I'd rather focus on if we have one. Or, if getting one moving forward is still a need.
This pretty much sums it up for me. Tannehill is going to do what he has done these last couple of years going forward with the Titans. IF they are smart they will give him better protection so they can pivot to a passing attack as needed when the run fails. They actually tried to do that, but injuries and a bad miss in the draft just made the line weak this year.
I suspect this thread will now die out on its own. I think the Dolphins have some good pieces and moving forward we will have reason to be positive in the other threads. I'm not sold on Tua yet, but if Flores is, and is willing to tie his coaching career to the young QB, that's good enough for me. Of course, if Flores makes the decision that Tua can't get the team where they need to be, then I'm going to support that move as well. FINS UP!!!
Then avoid this thread..........
I certainly hope Tua is better.
I don't think anyone here is wallowing- they're just fed up that they were told RT stinks for six seasons. And now that he's had some legit success as a top-5 QB across multiple seasons, those same people are saying "Shut up, it's not relevant."
But it is entirely relevant because of your 2nd sentence- we need to fully evaluate current/future QB's in ideal situations. For instance, some here have already started with the "Tua sucks" comments, even though he was throwing to practice squad receivers who led the league in dropping footballs. That's not a fair audition by any means and we just did the exact same thing with Tannehill and a horrible offensive line.
If we don't learn from our mistakes then we're bound to repeat them- which is why so many here feel passionate saying in 2021 "RT was not the problem." Tua may be an all-pro or completely wash out, there's no way to tell, but we do need to learn our lesson here and actually evaluate him with the right pieces in place before making another mistake of this caliber.
But that's just the conundrum that Tannehill presents for the team he's on -- how to have enough protection for him so the team can pass the ball at the frequency necessary to win certain kinds games that happen often in the NFL, while also bolstering the defense to the degree that the team isn't in dogfights every week.
In the end you need a running game, a stud offensive line, and a defense. I mean my lord, isn't that the definition of being virtually completely dependent on one's surroundings?
This is why the fact that Tannehill isn't part of the elite group of QBs is so noteworthy -- it essentially makes the requirements around him functionally no different from those of the average QB in the league. If he were better at evading pressure and making plays on his own in passing situations, he wouldn't need such a stellar offensive line, and then he'd be functionally different in at least one way from an average QB.
Notice that the QBs being prized in the draft nowadays have that trait -- evading pressure and making plays on the move. Tannehill is an NFL "dinosaur" in that regard, and it makes his team have to surround him with an unlikely level of talent to win a Super Bowl.
Even Tua -- who's done nothing in the NFL to date -- at least presents the prospect of a much higher ceiling in that regard, just on the basis of the flashes he showed in 2020.
Titans were 24th in pass protection. They were on backups of backups. If they were ranking out at 12 or 15 and I was making the claim he needs more help from the Oline then I would agree. Winning 11 games, taking their division, and being competitive in the playoff game, all while fielding a bottom 10 offensive line isn't saying he needs studs to be average, and it doesn't make sense to have that argument.
The point is that they also needed their running game, and a far better defense. So if you need a running game, a defense, and a good offensive line, things become a tall order to accomplish. One of those areas can falter (due to injuries or some other reason), and then the personnel recipe necessary to compete for a Super Bowl falls apart.
You'd like for your QB to make some other elements of the team unnecessary, rather than making none of them unnecessary. When they're all necessary, it becomes something unlikely to be accomplished.
There's a reason why Tennessee isn't advancing in the playoffs and being competitive for a Super Bowl, despite that they have perhaps the most dominant run game in the league alongside a better-than-average QB. It's because too many other areas of the team have to perform at a sufficient level, and that becomes unlikely to be accomplished.
Your last few points are the most telling in my opinion. Does Tannehill have a lower passing volume? Sure he does but the fact that with fewer passes he’s able to complete longer passes for more yards says volumes a loot his abilities.
Take quarterbacks that throw the ball 45-60 times a game. Outrageous in my opinion but if you’re throwing the ball that often, you’re bound to hit a long pass sooner or later. The fact that he can virtually do it figuratively every time is the “he shoots, he scores” analogy.
The fact the Titans have a very effective running game combined with Tannehill’s abilities has made Tennessee’s offense one of the most reliable in the league. Sadly yesterday though, the Titans gave a perennial defensive power house in the Ravens that shut Henry down. That plus the effective pass rush disrupted to Titans pass game.
Probably good advice.
Good luck to all that are still working through the fact that Tannehill is no longer a Miami Dolphin.
Are we really criticizing Tannehill after throwing for almost 300 yards and a 104 rating against the Ravens? I mean, yeah, I guess it's reasonable to expect to see a QB throw 5 TDS or something against the Ravens.
Against the Ravens yesterday Tannehill threw for 165 yards, 6.3 YPA, a TD, an INT, and a passer rating of 83. His EPA per play was a lowly 0.08, and 0.01 per pass dropback.
They had a bad pass protecting O-line, and a bad defense this year. Still won the division. In fact they had the worst defense and I believe the worst pass protecting Offensive line of any team in the playoffs if I'm not mistaken. I wonder how many teams have won a superbowl and were the worst in these 2 categories. I suspect very few if any, so if you believe he isn't elite, why would you expect him to pull off this feat?
Anyway this is all rehash to earlier arguments. We aren't going to see eye to eye here. If he was as bad as you thought he was he wouldn't have been able to win the division, and lead a team back to the playoffs. If you believe Henry could do it all by himself I suggest you take a look at Barry Sander's career.
What does winning the division mean? Washington won the division with a 7-9 record. What does "making the playoffs" mean? 44% of the teams in the league accomplished that this year.
This year the Titans' EPA per pass dropback was 4th in the league at 0.28. Last year it was 7th in the league at 0.15. So whatever deficiency there was in their offensive line in 2020 in comparison to 2019, it didn't register in their passing game.
The issue is that they need a defense in addition to a QB paid at Tannehill's level, one of the the most dominant run games in the league (2nd in the league in 2020 at 0.058 EPA per rush), and whatever offensive line fueled the 4th-best pass offense in the league in 2020, to be able to be not just a "division-winner" or a "playoff team."
That's an awful lot of pieces to put in place. It's tough to win a Super Bowl without an elite QB, and Tannehill and company are a study in that. If you're okay with winning divisions and making the playoffs, you settle for a QB like Tannehill. If you're aiming to win a Super Bowl, you need somebody better.
My bad, I actually hasn't looked at a score, didn't watch the game, and ran across that stat.
Thanks for the correction.
Quit playing games, you are being ridiculous. 11-5 is a solid season, what difference does it make what Washington needs to win their division?
downplaying a division win to try to make your point doesn't make you look good here. With Tannehill they made it to the AFC championship game the year before, and this year they had a weaker team and didn't perform as well. It's not a hard equation to figure out.
IF what you were saying was even remotely true Aaron Rodgers would be in the Super bowl damn near every year. You're being ridiculous with a hot take that you know is ridiculous.
Someone like Aaron Rodgers is in the Super Bowl damn near every year.
Someone like him is, but not Aaron himself. I think the point is that even the perennially great QB needs a lot of help because it’s a team game.
Right, but if the Super Bowl simply rotates among the perennially great QBs in the league almost every year, where does that leave the Tannehills of the world?
In need of lots of help that's unlikely to be accumulated and/or maintained.
Further evidence of my claims. These are the AFC QBs in the playoffs. Tannehill has the third shortest time to throw and the smallest average separation of this top two targets. Now to this add the fact that only Mayfield had a longer average depth of completion (7.4 yds to 7.3 yds).
I think we can find plenty of examples proving that it’s not always the elite QBs in the big game.
It may be easier to get there with a great QB, but plenty of teams have gathered a good/great supporting cast to do it.
Take a look at what’s gone on in recent years, after there have been significant rules changes that have favored the offensive passing game. And then consider what the percentage of Super Bowls won by non-elite QBs during that era says about the likelihood with which that can be done.
Philadelphia Eagles...2018...Nick Foles...and they beat a perennial elite QB in Brady
You make no sense. Aaron Rodgers regularly fails to make it to the super bowl almost every year and often with better talent then what Tannehill had this year, Titans sent 2 people to the pro bowl. It can't be an obvious ding against Tannehill, unless its an obvious ding against Rodgers. Of course nobody with any sense is telling you that it's an obvious ding on Rodgers, just like I'm telling you this isn't an obvious ding on Tannehill.
I agree with this completely. Not dinging any of them because it takes a lot more than an elite QB to win games.
What if the teams that have Rodgers and players like him are (hypothetically) 90% likely to win the Super Bowl in any single year, and the teams that have Tannehill and players like him are just 10% likely? Is that not a "ding" against players like Tannehill? Why does the league clamor for elite QBs and pay them like it does if none of this matters?
If the teams with the Tannehills of the world were just as likely to win Super Bowls, Rodgers and the players at his level wouldn't be paid like they are. We all know this stuff already intuitively.
Why do you think the fanbase has its finger on the pulse of Tua's performance the way it does? We know the future of the team in terms of winning a Super Bowl hinges largely on him. If he can join the group of elite QBs, the team becomes far more likely to win a Super Bowl. The team can certainly win a Super Bowl if Tua doesn't reach that level, but it's far less likely.