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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You only need to look at how good Belichick has been in the draft with an even more successful team than the Dolphins + Marino and the excuse that you can't draft well because you consistently pick near the bottom of the round goes out the door. Not being able to draft or trade for a good RB and being way too loyal to Olivadetti are two major black marks on Shula.

    It's really inexcusable to not win a SB with Marino, especially since we drafted him onto a team that was already SB calibre, and the blame falls more on Shula than anyone else. He's one of the top 4 coaches IMO in the SB era (Belichick, Lombardi and Walsh are the others), but he's not #1 for me in large part because of this.
     
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  2. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    It wasn’t the lack of a RB that hurt Marino’s chances of a SB win. It was the completely ineffective defence. That lack of D comes down more to the antique schemes used by Olavadetti than any lack of talent.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Defense might be reason #1, but RB was much more important back then than it is today and should be thought of as reason #2. From 1983-1995 during the Marino + Shula era, 10 out of 13 SB winners had a 1000 yard rusher. The Dolphins NEVER did during that time. And the 3 exceptions — 1987 Redskins, 1990 Giants, and 1994 49ers — had a very good rushing attack by committee. So yes RB should be considered reason #2.
     
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  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Using Belichick as a comparison is a very poor example due to free agency. Belichick has benefited from free agency, making it possible for him to bring in players to help the Patriots. Free agency was only around for for a couple of years during Shula’s final years before retiring.

    Now I’ll give you Olividotti. I didn’t care for him that much. But even with a weak defense, that had nothing to do with 6 Dolphins turnovers in the 1986 AFC Championship game...nor the 2 Miami losses during the 3 week NFL strike...nor Miami’s anemic offense during the 1988 and 1989 seasons...nor Miami’s 3 turnovers in the 1990 AFC Divisional playoff against Jim Kelly and the Buffalo Bills...

    Should I go on? Yes, Olividotti sucked as a DC but there were many many MANY examples Miami’s offense shot themselves in the foot.

    Had free agency existed during Shula’s years, he could have gotten himself himself a running back after seeing what a bust Lorenzo Hampton and Sammie Smith were.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think you have the effect of FA backwards. Free agency helped level the playing field. You're thinking only in one direction: getting that RB through free agency. Thing is, other teams can play the same game, taking talent away from you. In general I'd argue free agency made it harder for a team to be consistently great.

    Shula also benefitted from no salary cap (except a year or so), which had a similar effect of leveling the playing field. Belichick's task in building a great team over 2 decades was more difficult than Shula's for both of those reasons.
     
  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Michael Jordan was cut from his JV basketball team in high school, so there ya go. RT = MJ
     
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  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    100% correct. My most vivid Olivadotti memory is from 1995. The Dolphins had lost to the Bills in week 15 and gave up 208 yards rushing. Two weeks later they are playing the Bills in the playoffs. I swear to God, the Dolphins come out in a nickel or dime defense and proceed to give up 341 yards rushing..... 341 yards rushing allowed, by an NFL team, in the playoffs.....
     
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  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    100%. Shame I could only like it once.
     
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  9. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    What a throw by Tanne. What a play by AJ Brown.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Waiting for cBrad's update. I didn't watch the Titans today but there wasn't a reason to flip over to that game either since it was a blowout.
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I stopped updating stats many weeks ago on Tannehill. Like I said before that debate's basically over. Didn't watch the Titans today. Really not interested in that team, and unlike Dolphins vs. Bengals, Dolphins vs. KC was worth paying attention to.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree, except that I'm personally still interested in the Titans/Tannehill. Just not so much that I'd skip a Dolphins game.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Is The Guy going to come out of hiding and admit that he was wrong? It was all about another season to be "sure". I predicted Tannehill would have a passer rating of 105 and be top 10 in that regard. So far I was half right. His rating is 108 and he is #6.

    He blocked me and (I think) peeks out every now and then. Time for the admission, Guy.....
     
  14. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think certain arguments can be made that the salary cap can actually be a massive penalty for parity in some cases.

    It does stop trams from stacking all the best players, but the fact that a few big misses can count against you and hurt you for many years means teams that are better at evaluating talent they sign have a big advantage.

    It's not surprising that even in the salary cap era bad teams tend to stay bad a while.
     
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill has shown some serious quick strike capabilities this season:

    upload_2020-12-14_12-34-52.png
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The salary cap has measurably increased parity. You have about the same number of years pre-salary cap (started in 1994) and post in the SB era, yet pre-salary cap there were only 4 SB winners that won the SB once: Jets, Chiefs, Colts and Bears.

    Post-salary cap you have 9 teams that won it only once: Cowboys, 49ers (note that both of those dynasties ended right after the salary cap), Rams, Bucs, Colts, Saints, Seahawks, Eagles, Chiefs (though they might repeat this year).

    Granted, you'd expect a small increase in such teams post-salary cap due to the average number of teams in the league being slightly greater, but not 4 to 9. So at least on average it does increase parity.
     
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  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    What increase would you expect then? Because you basically eliminated the Cowboys and 49ers since they were pre-built to a degree pre-salary cap and werent clawing their way from the bottom.

    That would make it 4-7 which makes me wonder what the expected rate would be with added teams.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Can't leave the 49ers and Cowboys out because the salary cap coincided with the end of their dynasties, showing an effect. Regardless, there are 28 years in that pre-salary cap era with an average of 25.8 teams in the league, while you have 26 years in the post salary cap era with an average of 31.4 teams in the league.

    Using just the average number of teams (which is not the same as using the exact number of teams per year, but the end results will be similar), a simulation shows that if team strength is totally random, so if every team has the same probability of winning a SB, then you'd get an expected difference of about 2 more teams winning only one SB in the post-salary cap era.

    That calculation will of course change depending on the actual year-to-year correlation in team strength. I guess one could incorporate that too, but that's quite a bit of extra work so I'll pass on that right now. However, if you JUST go by probability of winning the SB (which one shouldn't do for calculating that correlation: one should look at win% for all teams) then the year-to-year correlation is less in the post-salary cap era, which would make that 2 extra team estimate a slight overestimate.
     
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  19. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well, he is currently at #6 so this prediction is looking pretty good.

    upload_2020-12-15_10-36-55.png
     
  21. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Without looking at the numbers in my memory it seems like he does more consistent production without PA but has more big plays from it. Which averages out....no?
     
  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Is he still trying to come up with a way to discredit Tannehill? LOL.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    On the surface it seems like it, but I'd have to look at more data to be sure.

    upload_2020-12-16_9-17-6.png

    His completion % is higher in non-play action. YPA is much higher in play action and given fact that this is with a lower completion %, the length of the throws are much higher on average. TD % and INT % are higher in play action.
     
  24. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Nope. This is just me being random lol. And of course there's alot of pages on this thread speaking about PA.
     
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  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I could be wrong, but it seems like I read somewhere a few weeks ago that Aaron Rodgers, for the first time in his career, has embraced play-action, and it's a primary reason for his renewed prowess this year (currently playing better than the odds-on favorite for MVP, Mahomes). The analyst was saying that Rodgers always thought he didn't need to lean on stuff like PA to play the position, but has since flipped on it (this year) and his numbers are showing why he was mistaken.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I just checked the stats on pro football reference. His % of play action passes is higher this season than last season. In addition, his passer rating on play action passes is 23 points higher than on non-play action passes (135.9 vs 113).

    Percentage of passes out of play action by Rodgers last 2 seasons - 22%, 27%

    Tannehill this season - 33%

    Looks like Rodgers is trying to emulate Tannehill..... lol
     
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  27. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ah so it would appear he started a bit before this year...the new HC is all about it evidently.

    So he's out-Tannehilling Tannehill...which makes sense, since he's got insane arm talent. 135.9 on PA...wow.

    We'll see if critics and pundits use "its only cuz he uses PA durrrrr" for Rodgers. Somehow, I doubt it.
     
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  28. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Imagine the type of production the Titans offense could put up if the damn defense could get off the field on 3rd down and give the offense a couple more possessions per game. Titans are currently ranked #26 in TOP, averaging 28:29 per game.
     
  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    From a dude on a Titans forum, in a thread about where Tannehill stands as Titans QB:

    "McNair was a warrior and hes my favorite Titan but he is romanticized to a crazy degree on this board. Tannehill is a far better passer. Way more accurate and throws with much better anticipation. Tannehill is already the best QB in franchise history."
     
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  30. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I have a good friend I work with who is a huge Titans fan. I loved busting his chops over Mariotta and when Tannehill signed with them, I told him Tannehill was going to be their starter. Of course he had to argue with me.

    Well to make a long story short, I asked him during the playoffs last season how he likes Tannehill, his response was I effing LOVE him!!!
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    They're about average in number of plays per game in 2020:

    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/plays-per-game
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Don't look now, rank #4....

    upload_2020-12-17_20-12-38.png
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2020
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    A question for those who the Guy hasn't blocked. Is he still posting? Has he finally conceded?
     
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  34. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Kinda strange how those guys do their rankings...they have Josh Allen 3rd, who has 400 more yards passing than Tannehill, same throwing TDs, 3% higher completion %, 4 MORE INTs than Tannehill, lower YPA than Tannehill, and 5 MORE Fumbles than Tannehill (6 to 1).

    Bottom line, they're both playing some damn good football, but I'm bigger on turnovers than these guys seem to be.

    Edit: Yep...its as I expected. I read further into their reasoning, and Allen is higher because the Bills have 10 wins (which we ALL know is a QB stat).
     
  35. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    The titans defense is probably the worse defense this year. The Guy you haven't been watching the Titans this year, have you?
     
  36. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Is it me or do you think Allen is a tad overrated? I've watched tons of Bills game and it seems as that guy goes throw the motion way too many times to be considered elite.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not even close. They're slightly below average, ranked 21 out of 32 right now. Average points per game this year is 24.7 and the Titans are giving up 25.8, so basically 1 point more per game than average. Compare that to the Jets or Cowboys (so far the worst defenses this year) who are giving up over 30 points per game.
    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-game
     
  38. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    How are they on 3rd downs though? I seem to recall them not being able to get off the field at a good rate.

    Points is the big stat, but other stuff provides context also.
    I dunno...I'm leaning toward "he's the real deal," he just needs more consistency, but if he improves in the next few years, as much as he's improved since his rookie year...the AFCE is gonna hate him.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    They're currently worst in 3rd down conversions against at 52.2%, but points are really all that matter. You can give up as many yards or 1st downs you want, if you give up the fewest points you're still one of the best defenses.

    I agree that fewest points allowed does not necessarily imply "the best" defense because correlation to win% can be slightly increased by adding in other metrics, but not by much. Points allowed is primarily what matters (it's intuitive too).
     
  40. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    My inexpert opinion is that in his first 2 years Allen was able to make bad decisions, but not get punished for many of them because of his arm strength.
    Now he’s learned to avoid bad decisions and is making some good decisions.

    The vastly improved mental processing matched with prodigious arm talent and a reasonable degree of mobility make him the real deal. Having said that, if he were to suffer an injury that robbed him of his throwing strength I don’t see him being successful as a hyper intelligent noodle arm Chad Pennington type of QB.
     
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