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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.
Rodgers looks like *** this game.
Scary because they are not all full strength yet.
Missing their top CB and WR.
The reborn Ryan Tannehill, is a fringe top 5 QB in this league. Happy for him, and hope they make a run in the playoffs.
Sorry to say this but this has been obvious from the film for quite some time.
Incredible comeback win today- that was probably one of the best games I've seen all season. Tannehill went ballistic on those last two drives and picked them to pieces.
I'm curious- who here thought Houston should have kicked a field goal on 4th and goal? And for those who said to go for it, would you go for the extra point or go for two after the TD? The announcers were second guessing that sequence but I thought Houston did the right thing overall. If they made the 2-point conversion the game was over, but they were still in it if they missed.
But you can flip that back to Tennessee as well- why didn't they go for two when their kicker missed two field goals on the day and they had already converted a 2-point conversion. Lots of strategy went into that final minute of play and I loved watching it unfold.
This is what the haters never understood. He stands in the pocket to make plays like this. He isn’t “confused”. Unfortunately, in Miami this resulted in sacks far too often and the big play payoff wasn’t there but this is the rationale. He’ll never be Wilson or Watson or Jackson running around but he can do this.
Not 5 games brad...15 games! What he did last season has continued through this season and like Brees' second in New Orleans, Tannehill is playing BETTER than he did his first season in Tennessee.
Yeah all games count, but if the question is whether last year was an anomaly for an average or (more likely) an above average QB, or it was more likely a great year for a Drew Brees-like QB, then it's just a 5 game sample for determining this year's rating. You're going to need Tannehill to end up with a z-score of 1+ for it to be more likely it's the latter because Brees' career z-score is 1.15. Tannehill's just about right there right now this year, so you're on track, but again it's just 5 games.
You're wrong about one thing though: he played better statistically last year. It's not just the raw rating, it's doing so when the league average was about 5 points lower and the standard deviation about 4 points lower.
TN resident here that got to watch most of the game. To make this short, the difference between the Titans Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins Ryan Tannehill is simply this. During his Miami career, he had similar red hot starts to a game only to throw interceptions and make mistake in the second half. The team would implode and we would lose momentum and ultimately the game. Today, I fully expected the same exact thing to happen once Houston started making their run. He threw two picks and fumbled and I thought "well same old Tannehill." Thing is...After Houston went up by a TD with 2 and change left in the game, he drove the team back down the field and he did it convincingly and with supreme confidence. The guy was absolutely clutch today when he needed to be. He's either truly grown into the QB that we all hoped he would someday become or he's just getting extremely lucky. He's sustained this success with the Titans, so I am going with the former on this one. The guy has elevated his game and I couldn't be happier for him! Today was enough proof for about him as a Quarterback. Had that situation arose during his Miami days, it would have been a completely different outcome. He probably would have thrown a pick at the end, or...The drive would have died somewhere around the 50 yard line.
You know, I was thinking something very similar. I wonder if that was part of the big divide on how we could have 2 massive splits between the fan base since we were all watching the same games. I think some people thought he was clueless and oblivious to the pressure, and others of us thought he was willing to give the plays time to develop. On the Dolphins these 2 situations play out very similar, but on an average to above average team, 1 of the situations is a curse that will continue to rear its ugly head, and the other is a benefit that I feel like the Titans are seeing now.
Tannehill on 3rd down in 2020, including today:
Philbin and Gase were the problems. End of story. Tannehill sticking it to everyone.
It’s no secret my thoughts and feeling about Tannehill. Let me tell you, you (or the Titans...or both) have a bonafide elite franchise quarterback. Is he perfect? By all means no. Even the BEST have terrible games. Ask Rodgers how it felt in Tampa Bay today, but he’s not a fluke, he’s not a scrub and he is anything but average.
As pointed out, Tannehill’s problem in Miami was Philbin and Gase. Philbin was viewed as an offensive guru due to his days in Green Bay as their OC. Well he inherited what had already been built. I seriously doubt an offensive line coach has anything to do with quarterback development. Adam Gase was an opportunistic megalomaniac who road the Broncos success with Peyton Manning to land an OC gig in Chicago before touting himself as an offensive wunderkind to land the Dolphins HC spot. The coaching in Miami sucked for Tannehill and now he’s on a team with a GREAT head coach.
The 2 powerhouses in the AFC for the next several years are going to be the Chiefs and the Titans. Barring anything catastrophic, Tannehill’s going to be one of the elite quarterbacks in the league for quite some time.
I know you were very critical of Ryan Tannehill’s performance in Miami when behind in the 4th quarter.
Out of interest how does his behind in the 4th quarter stats compare between Miami and Tennessee? To be fair I”m happy not to include his rookie year if you think that makes sense.
Straight up elite thrower of the football. To my "friend" that can't stop scouring stats looking for flaws. Watch some damn film:
Up to third:
Lewan may have a torn ACL.
Huge loss. But I still seen Tanne stay effective without Lewan in the game. Getting rid of the ball quick
He got plenty of practice doing that here.
Its going to be a great game. Titans vs Steelers. Two undefeated teams. Titans defense has to play better, the offense has been carrying them all year.
This is going to be the Titans first TRUE test this season. Defensively, I'm not too concerned about the Steelers offense. not intending to belittle what the Steelers have accomplished thus far this season, but their offense is kind of on life support. Roethlisburger really should have retired this past season.
Offensively its going to be the true test for the Titans. The Steelers defense is no joke! If the Titans can strike quickly and get a lead on the Steelers, causing Pittsburgh to prematurely go one-dimensional, they can win.
Yeah, Tannehill throwing for 300+ and Henry rushing for 200+, and they STILL had to come from behind tells you everything you need to know about that defense. Lol
How about Tannehill coming to the line to spike it then smartly seeing the single coverage and throwing the TD.
Worst 3rd down defense in the league.
The departure of Dean Pees has hurt this defense.
LOL, that entire drive I was like, "Spike the darn football already!!!!" I honestly thought they were going to run out of time going over the middle and not stopping the clock. Obviously RT had more faith than I did....and so did Houston's coaching staff by opting to go for 2 a minute earlier.
We keep seeing these Elway-like comebacks and they're doing it with ease during crunch time. Tannehill is on a whole-other level in these close games with all the confidence in the world. It's really great to see.
In the 2019 regular season he had 88 pass attempts under those conditions. In the 2019 playoffs he had 26 pass attempts under those conditions. In 2020 he's had 30 pass attempts under those conditions.
I'm not able to see his overall performance under those conditions so I can't fully answer the question, but I do know he's had 144 pass attempts with the Titans under those conditions.
What really needs to happen with regard to Tannehill in my opinion is a precise analysis of his performance as a function of run probability. Even in the scenario noted above for example (trailing in the fourth quarter) there is substantial variation in run probability. Down 24-0 with five minutes left in the game, run probability may be very high (e.g., the Jets' situation in the Dolphins game yesterday, when Frank Gore logged several carries). On the other hand, down 7 points with less than two minutes left as in the Titans' game yesterday, run probability is obviously extremely low.
Obviously passing the ball under conditions of high run probability, especially with Derrick Henry in tow, is fundamentally different from passing the ball under conditions of low run probability.
We need to know just how much he's capitalizing on opposing defenses' attention to the Titans' run game. And I don't know the answer to that question myself -- I'm just proposing the kind of analysis that would speak the loudest to me about how he's performing individually, given his surroundings.
Another under the radar strategic move by Vrabel. These are the small yet large details that sets the team up to win. Dude gets it.
Man, you've got to let it go. Tannehill is playing at elite levels. Yesterday's game, Tannehill had a 70% completion, 4tds, 360 yards, and Henry rushed for 212, and they still had to come back. If that defense wasn't compete trash, they'd be decimating their opponents.
But, but, play action.... LMAO.
Oh I'm fully willing to let it go, believe me. I'm just proposing the final piece of the puzzle here, in my view.
If I were a Titans fan I'd want to know this information because it would tell me 1) how my team would likely fare if Derrick Henry were injured, and 2) how my team would likely fare if it was behind on the scoreboard in the playoffs but still able to win with exceptional performance in the passing game. If Tannehill can perform adequately under those conditions, then he deserves to be mentioned among the league's best QBs and deserves consideration for league MVP.
If on the other hand his performance is driven by run probability and opposing defenses' attention to the Titans' run game, and that distinguishes him from the league's best QBs, then obviously he's fundamentally different from them, and such consideration isn't as warranted.
Ive seen alot of drives without Henry in the line up.
Just like that last drive to take a lead. Im for certain the success wouldnt drop how you seem to think.
So just to be clear, option C - Tannehill is just a average QB that is benefiting from a stacked Titans team, is off the table now? Are we moving on to discussing if Tannehill is an elite QB or just really good?
The information we have isn't consistent with that, however. For example, Tannehill's passing performance in 2020 in terms of EPA+CPOE composite score on 3rd down exclusively is 0.44 standard deviations below the league average. His performance on 1st and 2nd downs has plummeted on 3rd down.
Now, there's a small sample size involved there, but it suggests a more thorough and precise analysis is warranted along the lines I suggested above, i.e., passing as a function of run probability.
I wouldn't make any firm conclusion in that regard right now, but I would say the evidence is leaning toward at least option B.
You must be arguing with the Guy again. I'm once again blocked by him...although I suspect he unblocks me to read posts and then goes right back into blocking mode again lol.
What nonsense is he posting now?
Yeah I was looking at his stats while trailing with less than 4 minutes left because he was terrible in Miami under those conditions. Without adjusting to a common year, his passer rating in Miami was 57.5 in those conditions (add at most 5 points to that if you adjust) while in Tennessee he's so far at 95. His Miami rating was with 352 attempts while in Tennessee it's only 85 attempts, but clearly there's no issue so far in Tennessee playing from behind late in the game (i.e., "clutch" issues).