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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    2 vote(s)
    4.0%
  3. An average QB

    6 vote(s)
    12.0%
  4. An above average QB

    24 vote(s)
    48.0%
  5. An elite QB

    14 vote(s)
    28.0%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    8.0%
  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I should add that the word "predict" means something different in science/math than in colloquial speech. It means "logically derive from assumptions" rather than "claim something will occur in the future". So increasing the predictive power of a model also means you can explain what occurred in the past better, not just predict the future better.

    The limitations of stats really lie in not having detailed enough stats rather than the methods of statistical analysis. We just don't have detailed enough football stats like how far away player X was from player Y, or what the formation was, etc. NFL Next Gen Stats is taking one small step in that direction, but it's not publicly available and it's still not ideal. Gather that type of data and the Tannehill debate would look a lot different too.
     
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, though, you're attempting to predict things. I guess there's some value in that, but to me, it's pretty limited. Predicting is useful for betting on games, as you'll probably come out ahead, in the long term, but you might lose significantly in the short term. The phrase "any given Sunday" exists for a reason. Football is very different from backgammon, we can start with three fact that there are 22 humans on the field, each having to process, make decisions, and execute, on their own, vs two people playing backgammon.

    I notice you didn't answer my question, though. The things that happen on the field, that are truly random (not a statistical "random" meaning not able to be predicted) are an incredibly tiny percent of what's happening on the field. A corner reads a QB, jumps a receivers route, and picks off a pass, is "random" in a statistical sense, but it isn't truly random. Now, that corner isn't going to be successful every time he does that. But it's random only in the sense that you can't predict it. Why can't you predict it? Because you're a human, and you can't predict the future. But the driving force behind the turnover is the physical and mental ability of the corner. Now, having a statistical model for that team, that gives numerical representations of their turnovers can give you insight that when you played say, Seattle a few years ago, you knew that the defense was more likely than other teams to create turnovers. But even still, statistics are simply a numerical interpretation of results. Trying to predict the future by that is going to be fraught with problems.
     
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  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So I kinda disagree with that, in that, whatever model you have for looking at say turnovers, is not going to explain anything to do with Howe the turnovers were achieved. Your model isn't going to explain the pounds of pressure the linebacker applied to the football when he punched it free from the running back, etc etc. Same with my hypothetical about a corner reading the QB and jumping a route.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    What if machine learning someday could be leveraged to look through video and infer that data? Then you have the "more detailed stats" necessary to increase predictive power and reduce the portion left unexplained by "random" variation.

    This is basically how all the sciences progress: improve data collection and improve methods for analyzing the data. For football the biggest barrier is the data collection.
     
  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I just don't think you can ever gain enough data to predict the future. Again, the better your model, the better it might be for long term goals, say sports betting, or moneyball in baseball. If a football season was 100 games the models would be much more effective at predicting. But in a 16 game season? I just don't think you can get enough data to effectively predict, because there are too many humans who are each seeing and evaluating and reacting. Each of those humans has different physical abilities, different reaction times, etc etc.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This article should appeal to you then:

    http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/11/randomness-of-win-loss-records.html
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So, I would say this, again, even in his examples, the stats are looking at the results. The model would not be able to predict which teams would be which, before ever playing a game. Like, using his examples, you couldn't predict, before the season, which team would be a Chargers and which team would be a Buccaneers.
     
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Dude, just tell me one thing on a football field that is random and not caused at all by a player in any fashion.

    I dont give a crap about dice or backgammon. I asked you a very specific question several times and you refuse to answer it. Do so again and I'm going to start talking to you in this thread like you're five.
     
  9. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill kept throwing to bunch of practice squad players, lol
     
  10. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    Some days its better to be lucky than good.
     
  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Disclaimer!
    I'm not a fan of Cowherd nor do I think he has great takes, in general. This is not an endorsement of his show or commentary in general.

    That said, in this case he raises an interesting angle on the Titans and Tannehill:

    How much of our supposedly objective opinion about RT17 (or anything else) is actually skewed by "first impressions" or emotional attachment?

    Relevant part of video ends around 4:27 mark.

     
    The_Dark_Knight likes this.
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yes it is, but it doesn't augur well for future performance.

    The novice backgammon player who beats me with a ridiculous number of doubles at the end of the game is almost certain to be beaten in the next game, after his luck has run out.
     
  13. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    I ll give TheGuy credit for atleast admitting that Tannehill has been really good despite Henry.

    We finally made him admit it.
     
  14. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I have always said, and will until he retires that Tannehill is a GREAT quarterback. He had a sh1t show in Miami under Joe Philbin. He had a sh1t show in Miami under Adam Gase. Had Tannehill stayed in Miami under Brian Flores we’d all be singing a different tune but I understand the whole salary cap and cleaning house culture, don’t like it but I understand it need to trade Tannehill...but with Tannehill in a virtually perfect offensive scheme, he’s showing what he always was.

    Now I know I fight with the stats guys but in this video, these numbers don’t lie. Ryan Tannehill is Lamar Jackson. The facts prove it. Games won, TDs, Int, yards, rushing TDs, passer rating...Tannehill and the Titans are for real.

    If we could have kept Tannehill in Miami, I can’t even begin to imagine where we would be, especially next season.
     
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  15. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Our boy Tanne helped us out by beating the Jills!
     
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  16. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    resnor likes this.
  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I just submitted my opinion and 96% of those who voted don't feel the problem was Tannehill...

    36% No, I never thought it was him and was disappointed that they let him go. (18 votes)
    60% I did not think the blame laid at his feet but it was probably better for both sides for him to get a new start somewhere else. (30)
    4% I think it was his fault but for some reason he has become a much better player in Tennessee. (2)

    The other two positions are zero.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Don’t flatter yourself. I’ve been following the data all along and still am.
     
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Just out of curiosity, I went back and took a look at that poll in the Phinsider. Now I know I bust The Guy's balls in here, but I know not even HE would vote "He Still Sucks, End of Story"...but someone did!

    Talk about being one of the angry old men from the Muppets :sidelol:
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Not that particular model, no, but we could conceive of a model in which the prediction of future performance is based on past performance and the degree to which it was determined by stable versus random variables, as well as changes in the team's roster during the offseason and future strength of schedule. When Vegas determines an over/under for number of wins for each team prior to the season, it's using something similar. Are those predictions perfect? No, but they're better than common intuition alone.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A few thoughts-

    1) At first, I was annoyed by his comments since he's clearly playing favorites- Baltimore is not better than Tennessee because the Ravens got spanked in the playoffs last year. RT had the better passer rating in that game & overall. But then I caught myself because I expected RT to do well in Tennessee...so I was "on that bandwagon" from the very start and was willing to believe it until I was proved wrong. He's played great so that didn't happen, but the point is still there. My opinion started somewhere.

    2) After thinking about it a little, I realized that this entire thread is about people's initial reactions and not wanting to move away from them. That feels strange for me because I disliked RT at first (Moore should have started!), became somewhat of a fan, hated him for a stretch and then became a massive believer....all before he had a few horrible games down the stretch of his final year with Miami. And that's how I am with most things- my opinion is dynamic and changes based on what I see. I don't think the average fan does that though and they get so deep in their personal beliefs, they can't see anything else.

    3) And after thinking about that for a little while, I realized that this isn't limited to football- it's in every aspect of our society. Black Lives Matter vs the police...who's "right"? Honestly, they both are...we just don't live in a world where people can see all sides and relate to them equally. And we're going thru the US election cycle with ads on the TV just trashing people from both sides- it's not about saying "I'm the better person"....instead, we say how horrible the other guy is like it's all black and white. We literally do that everywhere in society on every topic- it's instant judgement where we're on one side of the fence or the other.

    4) So that brings me to this- how many of you here that love Ryan Tannehill saw that he was an absolute bum at times in Miami? And how many of you that hate him have seen the man make some truly elite, next-level plays that the average QB just can't do? Because if you can't see both sides, the good and the bad, then that means we aren't having a conversation here at all...we're taking a stand with our pitchforks and demanding others to bend to our will.

    And if you're doing that, then you're not evolving as a person and becoming your best self....you're missing out on a lot in life because of your prejudices. I know that's pretty deep, but I felt like I just had to say it after 260+ pages of arguments, COVID, Black Lives Matter and all the other stuff we're dealing with today. Not everything can have a simple answer and we have to learn to look at all sides objectively to make sound independent decisions. The thing is, that decision you make might have to change tomorrow, next month or next year based on new facts...it has to be a dynamic process that never truly ends.

    So I'd implore you to re-check your belief system on this topic....you are not 100% right with your opinion here. Maybe you're 56% right or 91% right, but there's still some things you're not fully understanding because you simply don't want to. RT is not a football God and he's not a bust either- he's simply a guy playing football that has some good days and some bad ones. For the past year he's been trending way up but that doesn't prove a darn thing about what will happen next week- he will do whatever he does. That also doesn't change a thing about how he's played so far either. He is truly dynamic, changing and growing as a player every single week...so why shouldn't your opinions be more dynamic as well?

    I think that's important to keep that in mind going forward because there's not just one true narrative here.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020
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  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Good post.

    There was only one time in Miami that I was down on Tannehill, the last three games of 2018. That's it. I was honestly at a loss to explain what happened in those games. I thought he might be ruined.
     
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  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    While I was down at times on Tannehill, I never thought he was a reason why Miami was mired in mediocrity.

    Good post, Key.
     
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  24. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I was down on him in some games...didn't seem to have that clutch gene people fantasize about...needed more pocket presence and didn't think he'd ever evolve it. Used to get pretty pissed off at some of the sacks he'd take. ALWAYS was blatantly aware of the weaknesses in his game, still am. But you don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. They all have warts.

    That said, I have 3 Tannehill jerseys (1 from Tennessee...only non-Dolphin jersey I've ever bought myself), and have ALWAYS been a huge fan of the kid's...not because he was all-world best QB in history, but because of his grit, never selling out teammates, toughness, dedication to improving (slow and steady). He made some throws in 2012 that told me he'd be the real deal...if he didn't get killed first. I absolutely envisioned him being either elite, or on the cusp, but I knew it wouldn't be quick. He's always had elite traits, just not enough of them earlier on...but the flashes were evident.

    It's an absolute joy to see him enjoy success with the Titans.

     
  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    RT17 was the first non-Dolphins jersey I ever purchased and probably the only one I'll ever get besides the crappy NE & Tampa ones I've bought for my brother from China. He's a Gronk/Brady fanatic until I told him about "Brady's swamp ***" obsession. Google that and thank me later!
     
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  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fun little watch on sideline reactions from Henry's big stiff-arm, Tannehill's awkward end zone flip, etc-

     
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  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-10-16_7-33-42.png

    Preach.....
     
  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    With a running game that hasn't clicked yet...

    upload_2020-10-16_7-40-50.png

    Just keep destroying the myths, Ryan....
     
  29. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Strong Opinion Sports on Tannehill and Gase and the Titans:

     
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  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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  31. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It freaks me out that both of his percentages are exactly the same AND Steve Young had one season with that exact same number in his feat, though not both numbers like Tannehill.
     
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  32. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Dominique Foxworth said he came away from the game more impressed with Allen than he did Tannehill .



    This is how bad the hate is!!
     
  33. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Foxworth is a moron.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's funny, they all agreed that RT thrives with situational football. My question is, what isn't situational in football? For instance, the two broken red zone plays where Tannehill scrambled- there was clearly a "situation" happening there that wasn't scripted. He ran one in for the score himself, and threw a bullet on the 2nd one after committing to run.

    The white guy who talked 1st (I don't watch "experts" so I don't know their names) mentioned that RT had a pretty good QBR last season but an elite # this season. Umm, he had the top qb rating last year and so far, it's lower this year. That's because he did maybe 60 seconds of homework before engaging a national audience on a topic he doesn't know much about. While he did say RT is under-appreciated, it just annoys me that I know more than the "experts" when I'm a casual Tennessee fan.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well well well...

    https://www.nfl.com/news/panthers-s...ense-ryan-tannehill-s-a-top-five-qb#tannehill

    "Elite QB? It's high time to put some respect on Tannehill's name as a top-five quarterback."

    "That's hard for some skeptics who are still hung up on his inconsistent play in Miami, but the former No. 8 overall pick's streakiness might've been a byproduct of questionable teaching and instruction from his former Dolphins coaches."

    "If we are judging quarterbacks based on their individual accomplishments and team achievements, Tannehill must be included among the elites at the position."
     
  36. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    They are idiots. People call Tom Brady a system Qb; yet every team has a system. I mean thats what Football is about. You develop systems to fit your players. Its like when Tim Tebow went to New England. Anybody that knew football knew Tebow was gonna wash out. You can't expect a player with Tebows skill set to fit a system built for Bradys skill set.

    Its basically an excuse and a way to diminish what Tannehill is doing because they were wrong about him. Colin Cowherds the only one ive seen acknowledge he was wrong about Tannehill and he is legit. People thought last year was a fluke, yet here he is again doing the same thing. Part of its we were wrong about Tannehill, the next part is its the Titans.
     
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  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    No no no no no...the deviation between causation and correlation multiplied by the co-efficient and divided by pi and systemically applying the Pythagorean theorem using the max Q dynamic pressure physical application still shows that Tannehill sucks :tongue2:
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  39. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Where are the Giants on that graph...am I blind....?

    Dolphins with early pass efficiency equivalent to Greenbay (Rodgers) and Seattle (Wilson)!
     

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