Ryan Tannehill

"Etrius24 wrote:

Guy

Stop doing this man.... It says there is a new post... I come to check it out and you post this blank crap...

Just post if you want to post... You are coming here reading and taking the time to make blank posts... Why?

He might have blocked you. Try logging out and coming back to the site without logging in and see if you see his posts. I see them.

Brad

If he did that is fine... His loss. I guess he did not like the fact that I was not accepting him changing his arguments every time a previous set of numbers were debunked.

"Etrius24 wrote:

Brad

If he did that is fine... His loss. I guess he did not like the fact that I was not accepting him changing his arguments every time a previous set of numbers were debunked.

Actually I got irritated with the fact that you repeatedly displayed trouble following along, but we'll give it another shot.

"The Guy wrote:

Again, if what we're talking about here, with regard to any topic, rests on the credibility of a nobody on a message board, then the issue is probably so ambiguous and open to interpretation that nobody's credibility really matters anyway.

On the Kansas City Chiefs' message board they can simply call people who think Patrick Mahomes is no good delusional. The issue is so open-and-shut that any one person's credibility hardly matters.

Not so with this topic, apparently.

Who said Mahomes was no good? I was talking about your "jordanesque" domination prediction in and era where Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have won one SB each.

"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:

Who said Mahomes was no good? I was talking about your "jordanesque" domination prediction in and era where Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have won one SB each.

You didn't say that -- I raised that point only to show that the more ambiguous something is, the more people's opinions about it matter, and by extension the more that people's credibility comes into play. If something is open-and-shut -- like Mahomes's ability -- then anybody with a highly deviant opinion in the obviously wrong direction can just be called delusional, and their credibility (or the lack thereof) has no real effect on the discussion.

"cbrad wrote:

He might have blocked you. Try logging out and coming back to the site without logging in and see if you see his posts. I see them.

He absolutely blocked Etrius. He pretty much blocks anyone who disputes his ridiculous theories. He wants to post in an echo chamber.

Maybe it's worth asking The Guy the question: why the tremendous fixation on Tannehill?

There's clearly more to this than just QB evaluation per se because you (The Guy) don't focus on any other QB where you might have similar arguments (you said Jackson for example) like you do Tannehill. And this doesn't feel to me like someone just "trying to be right" either. I've seen that before and it looks (feels) different. There's something else going on here that's causing the tremendous focus on Tannehill and I would really be interested in knowing what that is.

"cbrad wrote:

Maybe it's worth asking The Guy the question: why the tremendous fixation on Tannehill?

There's clearly more to this than just QB evaluation per se because you (The Guy) don't focus on any other QB where you might have similar arguments (you said Jackson for example) like you do Tannehill. And this doesn't feel to me like someone just "trying to be right" either. I've seen that before and it looks (feels) different. There's something else going on here that's causing the tremendous focus on Tannehill and I would really be interested in knowing what that is.

I tend to get overinvolved in things in which I'm a "voice in the wilderness" by calling people's attention to confirmation bias.

I went through this when Nick Saban was the coach of the Dolphins. I saw some things in his personality I wasn't too fond of, and early in his tenure with the team I went round and round with folks about how those things would interfere with his successful coaching of the team. Boy was I unpopular.

Then later on Saban became totally unpopular with about the entire fan base in one fell swoop, due to what I thought were many of the things I'd been perceiving about him all along. All of the sudden the same opinion about him that had gotten me in endless wrangles with people had shifted to being the prevailing one.

Tannehill, same deal. Like Saban, he was at one time viewed as the savior of the franchise, and so I think he got a benefit of the doubt that was wholly undeserved. The confirmation bias with regard to him was at an extreme in my view. And again I'm not a big fan of confirmation bias.

"cbrad wrote:

Maybe it's worth asking The Guy the question: why the tremendous fixation on Tannehill?

There's clearly more to this than just QB evaluation per se because you (The Guy) don't focus on any other QB where you might have similar arguments (you said Jackson for example) like you do Tannehill. And this doesn't feel to me like someone just "trying to be right" either. I've seen that before and it looks (feels) different. There's something else going on here that's causing the tremendous focus on Tannehill and I would really be interested in knowing what that is.

CBrad,

I guess for me it is looking at Tannehill for years and seeing him grow as a player.... To see him trust his legs more and to know when to use them... To see him throw on the run... to bootleg to extend plays.... To see him get deadly accurate on deeper throws to the point where he was one of the best in football at it.

So we see the growth... He is in his mid 20's and we have reason to be excited. He gets hurt we get Adam Gase and the next couple of seasons are flushed down the toilet to his terrible coaching ( And the roster was threadbare. )

So Tannehill gets shipped away... and the first chance he gets to play he is playing close to an elite level... It is not like the Titans were a powerhouse when Tannehill took over... They were 2-4!

So they start winning... Tannehill shines... They even beat Mahomes and the Chiefs. He suddenly is their leader on offense and the team MVP... (Everything we hoped he would become here. ) Someone pointed out that his QB rating last season was the 4th highest in the history of the NFL...

I honestly think at this point there are half a dozen members here that come to this thread to see what the next argument against Tannehill will be! One by one they get debunked only to be swapped out for a set of new ones with lightning speed.

It could easily have gone a different direction.... Tannehill shines... We all say that we knew he was a great QB... and wish he was still here... and move on. We are fascinated now as to how people can continue to diminish Tannehill and try to deny what he just accomplished.

Just my take on it.

Despite all of that Guy comes up with half a dozen theories as to why Tannehill was not that good... Why it was all due to Henry... Why Tannehill was just lucky etc...

"The Guy wrote:

I tend to get overinvolved in things in which I'm a "voice in the wilderness" by calling people's attention to confirmation bias.

I went through this when Nick Saban was the coach of the Dolphins. I saw some things in his personality I wasn't too fond of, and early in his tenure with the team I went round and round with folks about how those things would interfere with his successful coaching of the team. Boy was I unpopular.

Then later on Saban became totally unpopular with about the entire fan base in one fell swoop, due to what I thought were many of the things I'd been perceiving about him all along. All of the sudden the same opinion about him that had gotten me in endless wrangles with people had shifted to being the prevailing one.

Tannehill, same deal. Like Saban, he was at one time viewed as the savior of the franchise, and so I think he got a benefit of the doubt that was wholly undeserved. The confirmation bias with regard to him was at an extreme in my view. And again I'm not a big fan of confirmation bias.

Pot, meet kettle.

"The Guy wrote:

I tend to get overinvolved in things in which I'm a "voice in the wilderness" by calling people's attention to confirmation bias.

I went through this when Nick Saban was the coach of the Dolphins. I saw some things in his personality I wasn't too fond of, and early in his tenure with the team I went round and round with folks about how those things would interfere with his successful coaching of the team. Boy was I unpopular.

Then later on Saban became totally unpopular with about the entire fan base in one fell swoop, due to what I thought were many of the things I'd been perceiving about him all along. All of a sudden the same opinion about him that had gotten me in endless wrangles with people had shifted to being the prevailing one.

Tannehill, same deal. Like Saban, he was at one time viewed as the savior of the franchise, and so I think he got a benefit of the doubt that was wholly undeserved. The confirmation bias with regard to him was at an extreme in my view. And again I'm not a big fan of confirmation bias.

Guy

Nobody that I ever recall said Tannehill had to be Aaron Rodgers to be great. No Dolphin fan I know of was expecting him to be the best QB in football or even close. What we saw in him or hoped to see was a QB that could lead a team and be capable of winning playoff games.

Tannehill has shown he is that QB

"Etrius24 wrote:

CBrad,

I guess for me it is looking at Tannehill for years and seeing him grow as a player.... To see him trust his legs more and to know when to use them... To see him throw on the run... to bootleg to extend plays.... To see him get deadly accurate on deeper throws to the point where he was one of the best in football at it.

So we see the growth... He is in his mid 20's and we have reason to be excited. He gets hurt we get Adam Gase and the next couple of seasons are flushed down the toilet to his terrible coaching ( And the roster was threadbare. )

So Tannehill gets shipped away... and the first chance he gets to play he is playing close to an elite level... It is not like the Titans were a powerhouse when Tannehill took over... They were 2-4!

So they start winning... Tannehill shines... They even beat Mahomes and the Chiefs. He suddenly is their leader on offense and the team MVP... (Everything we hoped he would become here. ) Someone pointed out that his QB rating last season was the 4th highest in the history of the NFL...

I honestly think at this point there are half a dozen members here that come to this thread to see what the next argument against Tannehill will be! One by one they get debunked only to be swapped out for a set of new ones with lightning speed.

It could easily have gone a different direction.... Tannehill shines... We all say that we knew he was a great QB... and wish he was still here... and move on. We are fascinated now as to how people can continue to diminish Tannehill and try to deny what he just accomplished.

Just my take on it.

Despite all of that Guy comes up with half a dozen theories as to why Tannehill was not that good... Why it was all due to Henry... Why Tannehill was just lucky etc...

This is 100% correct.

"Etrius24 wrote:

Guy

Nobody that I ever recall said Tannehill had to be Aaron Rodgers to be great. No Dolphin fan I know of was expecting him to be the best QB in football or even close. What we saw in him or hoped to see was a QB that could lead a team and be capable of winning playoff games.

Tannehill has shown he is that QB

Not even the biggest Tannehill supporters have ever referred to Tannehill as an elite QB. He was in constant battles over Tannehill on another site (that he was banned from twice) and for a long time his pet stats revolved around sacks. He argued and argued that Tannehill was responsible for the sacks in 2013 despite all the evidence to the contrary (including a film review of every sack by an independent football site).

"Etrius24 wrote:

Guy

Nobody that I ever recall said Tannehill had to be Aaron Rodgers to be great. No Dolphin fan I know of was expecting him to be the best QB in football or even close. What we saw in him or hoped to see was a QB that could lead a team and be capable of winning playoff games.

Tannehill has shown he is that QB

The thing that I railed against was not the perception that Tannehill would be the next Aaron Rodgers -- it was that his high number of sacks was attributable to his surroundings and not to him. That I thought reflected confirmation bias, and that has been proven correct over time and with variation in his surroundings. He clearly has a penchant for sacks for which he is responsible, primarily, and from 2012 to 2014 very few people wanted to hear that.

"The Guy wrote:

The thing that I railed against was not the perception that Tannehill would be the next Aaron Rodgers -- it was that his high number of sacks was attributable to his surroundings and not to him. That I thought reflected confirmation bias, and that has been proven correct over time and with variation in his surroundings. He clearly has a penchant for sacks for which he is responsible, primarily, and from 2012 to 2014 very few people wanted to hear that.

You were wrong then and you are still wrong. It was proven over and over again to you.

"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:

You were wrong then and you are still wrong. It was proven over and over again to you.

Tannehill just had the second-highest sack rate in the league in 2019 -- behind only the rookie Dwayne Haskins -- while leading the league in passer rating.

I'd say the sacks issue is open-and-shut by now. He has a problem with sacks.

"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:

Not even the biggest Tannehill supporters have ever referred to Tannehill as an elite QB. He was in constant battles over Tannehill on another site (that he was banned from twice) and for a long time his pet stats revolved around sacks. He argued and argued that Tannehill was responsible for the sacks in 2013 despite all the evidence to the contrary (including a film review of every sack by an independent football site).

Actually, I found one of the threads. Two independent sites reviewed the sacks and agreed that the OL was the problem. This quote was from an article on Football Outsiders at the time:

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 17 times (53.1 percent) on short sacks, 12 times (37.5 percent) on medium sacks and three times (9.4 percent) on long sacks. It’s a pretty clear sign that the Dolphins sack problems (and they are significant problems) are the line’s fault, and not the fault of wide receivers failing to get open or a quarterback who holds the ball too long.

"The Guy wrote:

Tannehill just had the second-highest sack rate in the league in 2019 -- behind only the rookie Dwayne Haskins -- while leading the league in passer rating.

I'd say the sacks issue is open-and-shut by now. He has a problem with sacks.

You ignore the fact that after a sack rate of 9% in 2013, it dropped to a very Aaron Rodgers like 7.1%, 7.2%, and 6.9% the next three years. Hmmm.....

Sacks are only a problem when you are not getting a commensurate benefit. Many teams trade sacks for big plays. Seattle does it every year. The Titans did it last year.

Okay guys

I will say this...

In the past Tannehill got sacked a lot... But the O line was shit and we lacked more than one receiver worth throwing the football to. I do not consider Cotton a good receiver.

Now you might say the sack rate was high for the Titans in Tennessee.... But I watched the games and there were times when the coverage was completely blown and Tannehill had more than one pass rusher coming... He tucked the ball and ate it... Took the sack and did not give up the turnover. In those situations that is the best possible outcome... Do not do something like leave the ball unprotected and fumble... do not throw up a flailing duck for an easy interception.

The O Line was decent in Tennessee... but far from elite. Because the O line was not the worst in the league... We saw Tannehill play like he was an artist... That extra split second saw him show poise and touch... screen passes... extending plays.. Things we did not get to see In Miami.

Guy it sounds like you just did not watch the games. Tannehill several times a game turned broken down plays into game changing plays... There is a reason the players there love him and would run through a wall for him... He led... He took hits... He won. He delivered strikes deep taking a pounding that won football games.

So yes he took some sacks still in Tennessee... But he won... and he played at an elite level... Brown averaged over 20 yards per catch.... Henry went from 3.8 yards per carry to almost 6 yards per carry when Tannehill took over. The titans became the #2 scoring offense in football with Tannehill as their QB

You have ignored and refused to address all of these things.

Sacks happen.... Tannehill still played at an elite level in the 2019 season.

When will you admit it?

"Etrius24 wrote:

Okay guys

I will say this...

In the past Tannehill got sacked a lot... But the O line was **** and we lacked more than one receiver worth throwing the football to. I do not consider Cotton a good receiver.

Now you might say the sack rate was high for the Titans in Tennessee.... But I watched the games and there were times when the coverage was completely blown and Tannehill had more than one pass rusher coming... He tucked the ball and ate it... Took the sack and did not give up the turnover. In those situations that is the best possible outcome... Do not do something like leave the ball unprotected and fumble... do not throw up a flailing duck for an easy interception.

The O Line was decent in Tennessee... but far from elite. Because the O line was not the worst in the league... We saw Tannehill play like he was an artist... That extra split second saw him show poise and touch... screen passes... extending plays.. Things we did not get to see In Miami.

Guy it sounds like you just did not watch the games. Tannehill several times a game turned broken down plays into game changing plays... There is a reason the players there love him and would run through a wall for him... He led... He took hits... He won. He delivered strikes deep taking a pounding that won football games.

So yes he took some sacks still in Tennessee... But he won... and he played at an elite level... Brown averaged over 20 yards per catch.... Henry went from 3.8 yards per carry to almost 6 yards per carry when Tannehill took over. The titans became the #2 scoring offense in football with Tannehill as their QB

You have ignored and refused to address all of these things.

Sacks happen.... Tannehill still played at an elite level in the 2019 season.

When will you admit it?

He led the league in YPA and passer rating. They are the two most correlated with winning stats. Most running/scrambling QBs take sacks at a higher rate because they have a tendency to try to escape rather than throw it away. As I said in another post, as long as you are getting a good trade off in chunk plays, sacks are not a big issue.

I agree

When you lead the league in yards per pass and qb rating and you complete over 70% of your passes you are doing a lot of things right... No question... when your team is the #2 scoring team in football... You are doing something right.

"Etrius24 wrote:

I agree

When you lead the league in yards per pass and qb rating and you complete over 70% of your passes you are doing a lot of things right... No question... when your team is the #2 scoring team in football... You are doing something right.

But Derrick Henry.... blah blah blah

It's interesting to note this is one of the more active threads on the forum, even though it concerns a man who wasn't on our team last year and will not be on our team this year.

Every poster here owes Ryan Tannehill a great big "Thank You" for giving us something to talk about.

It seems to be the right time to make this post (4-1-2020). LOL

"Etrius24 wrote:

Guy it sounds like you just did not watch the games. Tannehill several times a game turned broken down plays into game changing plays... There is a reason the players there love him and would run through a wall for him... He led... He took hits... He won. He delivered strikes deep taking a pounding that won football games.

So yes he took some sacks still in Tennessee... But he won... and he played at an elite level... Brown averaged over 20 yards per catch.... Henry went from 3.8 yards per carry to almost 6 yards per carry when Tannehill took over. The titans became the #2 scoring offense in football with Tannehill as their QB

You have ignored and refused to address all of these things.

Sacks happen.... Tannehill still played at an elite level in the 2019 season.

When will you admit it?

Here's the most accurate assessment at this point in my opinion, which "admits" that he played well in 2019, but argues that it says relatively little about his ability in general right now:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-titans-scheme-has-made-ryan-tannehill-a-top-10-quarterback

What Tannehill has done this season is impressive, and it's potentially a turning point, yet it still should only marginally affect our assessment of him as a passer. Incorporating the entirely of Tannehill’s career, our best guess for how Tannehill will perform going forward is roughly in line with an average quarterback.

Bayesian updating not only provides a single, best-guess estimate but also allows you to form a range of potential outcomes that narrows with more evidence.

As you can see there, based on his history -- even when including his performance from the 2019 season -- there is almost no probability that he will consistently perform as one of the best QBs in the league. The probability curve almost completely flattens out around the 85th percentile.

So, is there a chance he can play as well as he did last year for the rest of his career? Certainly. But no one would be wise to bet on that right now. You would be far wiser to view last year as an aberration.

Now, let's say he comes back down to earth for the remainder of his career, which again has the strongest probability associated with it right now. Then how do you view 2019? To what do you attribute the difference in his performance that season?

Obviously then the situational and environmental factors that I've been proposing here (i.e., low-volume games, Derrick Henry, etc.) would have the most merit. And given that the strongest probability right now is that 2019 was an aberration, it certainly makes sense to discuss the possible effects of those situational and environmental factors right now. Doing so doesn't indicate a bias against Tannehill -- it merely represents an appraisal of reality.

Only those biased in favor of Tannehill would think any differently, and there appears to be a few folks here of that nature. I doubt any of them would bet much of their belongings on his continuing at a level non-significantly different from 2019, however.

"The Guy wrote:

Here's the most accurate assessment at this point in my opinion, which "admits" that he played well in 2019, but argues that we need more information to determine what it means about his ability in general:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-titans-scheme-has-made-ryan-tannehill-a-top-10-quarterback

What Tannehill has done this season is impressive, and it's potentially a turning point, yet it still should only marginally affect our assessment of him as a passer. Incorporating the entirely of Tannehill’s career, our best guess for how Tannehill will perform going forward is roughly in line with an average quarterback.

Bayesian updating not only provides a single, best-guess estimate but also allows you to form a range of potential outcomes that narrows with more evidence.

As you can see there, based on his history -- even when including his performance from the 2019 season -- there is almost no probability that he will consistently perform as one of the best QBs in the league. The probability curve flattens out almost totally around the 85th percentile.

So, is there a chance he can play as well as he did last year for the rest of his career? Certainly. But no one would be wise to bet on that right now. You would be far wiser to view last year as an aberration.

And both you and the article author would have bet 2019 wouldn't happen either.... so based on my track record assessing Tannehill's potential versus yours, I'll take mine. All season you predicted it would last despite this (from the article):

Tannehill ranks first among quarterbacks in nearly all of our critical passing factors: clean-pocket, standard dropback and no-play-action passing. These are the more stable measures of passing, which points to continued success.

It also doesn't account for 6 additional games of mostly excellent play. Those games included passer ratings of 92.2, 133.6, 130.8, 61, 109.5, and 108.1. That's a rating of 108.1. That would be third in the league.