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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

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    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

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  3. An average QB

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  4. An above average QB

    5 vote(s)
    41.7%
  5. An elite QB

    5 vote(s)
    41.7%
  6. The GOAT.

    2 vote(s)
    16.7%
  1. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I disagree when you add the fact that Brees was playing with HOF players on offense and defense. Don’t care what the stats in a vacuum say.

    what you are missing is that it is highly unusual for a team to fail to put together a decent OL for 8 years and have a QB still play well enough to earn the trust of the franchise despite getting pummeled game after game without being “David Carr’d”.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2020
    resnor likes this.
  2. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    watching tannehill lose bc he sucks is so fun. dude is awful if he can't play action. IE when he has to win a game without a RB carrying his ***.
     
  3. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    That was an interesting game to say the least.. safe to say gostkowski will be without a team tomorrow morning

    some of those kicks yea theyre not easy but to miss all the deep ones and a extra point.. i dont even think cody parkey would have been that bad.

    its too bad because he has a hall of fame resume.


    Tannehill made some good throws but he also missed on some giant plays, two of them to aj brown that could have been touchdowns.

    I expected a lot more from Drew Lock. Honest to god i thought this was going to be the game where he shows the world that hes the next top guy.. i kept thinking all offseason they keep talking about Chiefs and Ravens but the Broncos will be in play for the division.. They cant sleep on the broncos.. eh, im not so sure anymore about that prediction.

    i saw a lot of issues with Lock’s mechanics and his vision.. he missed out on a lot of big plays himself.. hes throwing the balls like bullets.. his deep pass needs more air under them.. the footballs are dropping like javelins..

    Maybe i was wrong about Lock... we will see if he gets better..

    i honestly had lock at 30 touchdown passes this year.. but he cant even complete a simple 2 yard crossing route for a touchdown to someone who had no one within 6 feet..
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'll ascribe some credibility to your view when you can first demonstrate the ability to accurately predict such outcomes. Until then, it's better to view the stats as is (otherwise whose view should one trust?), and there's never been a QB with sustained Drew Brees like stats after having 6 statistically average seasons.

    Regardless, Tannehill looked fairly pedestrian today. He did enough to win, but he did not look like the next Drew Brees.

    On another note: an update on the probability that Tannehill's ratings in Tennessee "come from the same QB" as his ratings in Miami. It's now a tad higher after his 97.9 rating today, but still utterly tiny: 0.0741% from 0.0298% prior to this game. That figure has to go to 5% to no longer be statistically significant so you can see he has a tremendous head start from last year. We'll see how it ends up at the end of the year (taking the stats "as is").

    Biggest take home message from today though is that the Titans need a new kicker!
     
    The Guy likes this.
  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Don't give up on Lock yet. It's clear he's still learning the game. He shows potential but then is blind to stuff, and the entire Denver offense is young so give them some time. Hard to predict how he'll turn out. After today it seems like 50/50.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Interestingly, his YPA was but 5.8. He had only one regular season game last year with YPA below 7.75. In the playoffs his YPA plummeted to figures of 6.3, 6.74, and 4.8.

    Naturally we can't change what actually happened in a game, but just for the sake of observation and comparison, if you replace the two 1-yard touchdown passes in this game with touchdown runs, Tannehill's passer rating plummets to 82.1, primarily because his YPA was so low. EPA for those TD passes was probably almost nil.

    Neither he nor Henry looked anywhere near as lethal in terms of big plays in this game. Of course one swallow doesn't make a summer, but both of them were in contract years last year and both of them got paid handsomely, so it'll be interesting to see what happens in terms of their "explosiveness" from here on out.
     
  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL @ pedestrian..... solid performance, on the road, against a good defense, with a running game that struggled to produce yards and a kicker that tried to give the game away.

    Henry's 3.7 YPC was close to his production (3.6 YPC) with Mariota at QB last season. That offense produced squat.

    With Tannehill, they had drives of 9, 12, 14, 15, and 12 plays. He was accurate the whole night and led the team. on an 83 yard, 12 play, late 4th quarter, game winning drive, that killed the clock also. In the middle of that drive there was a completely blown block by Saffold. A LB came as a free runner smacked Tannehill right in the face. He had a big smile on his face at the LOS on the next play and threw a beautiful 16 yard out to Brown that resulted in a PI penalty. That set them up to win the game a few plays later.

    This performance shows that Tannehill can lead the team to wins, on the road, when everything is not clicking. They should have scored 26 points. All in all, a very good performance.

    Meanwhile the current Drew Brees was 18 of 30 for 160 yards, 2 TDs, and a passer rating of 96.5 at home..... LOL....
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's about the definition of "fairly pedestrian." Solid but nothing special. The question at hand for 2020 is whether his performance will be consistent with what he did in Miami, or consistent with what he did in 2019.

    For Tannehill's passer rating last night to have been similar to his level of performance in 2019, with all else equal, he would've needed to throw for around 452 yards, as opposed to the 249 he actually did throw for.

    Guess how many times he's thrown for about that many yards in a game in his career? One. The highest number of yards he's ever passed for in a game is 431, and that was the only 400+ yard game of his career. His career average number of yards per game is 236 (SD = 69.5) -- 452 yards would be 3.1 standard deviations above that. Based on his career he stands a 0.09% chance of performing in that manner.

    So again, a solid game, yes, but not consistent with his 2019 performance. His performance last night was a good bit more consistent with his career with the Dolphins than it was with his performance in 2019. His passer rating last night was 0.41 z-scores above his career average (adjusted to 2019) in Miami, yet 0.87 z-scores below his average in 2019.

    So if the question for 2020 is whether he's going to perform in a way more consistent with his performance with the Dolphins or with his performance in 2019, chalk game one up to the former.
     
  9. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    If was building a team today from scratch there is no question that I'd take Drew Lock over Ryan.

    He's going to be a very good QB.
    I love his instincts and see a high ceiling for Lock. Ryan looked pretty pedestrian to me yesterday.
     
  10. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Also have to factor in that it was week-1 of 2020 thus there was limited practice and no preseason to get going.

    A few QBs came out in mid-season form, Tannehill was one of them. Great performance and I agree with your take here, he really was the difference for the Titans. That's no easy W and he led them when it counted.
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Actually it's interesting to look at what the effects of COVID-19 were in week 1, at least statistically. It looks like offenses performed better than usual, with league average passer rating for week 1 at 96.0 when it was at 90.4 for all of last year (understanding that this could just be random variation), and that fewer turnovers and penalties were committed by both the offense and defense.

    In other words, it looked like COVID-19 led to safer play by teams, which is kind of the opposite of what people predicted.

    I only watched a few games, but in every game I watched I did not see any extra rust or slop than usual, and statistically there was apparently less slop in general.

    The key stat to watch out for — IMO the real effect of COVID-19 over the season — will be home field advantage (or lack thereof). Anyway, this is an interesting "natural experiment" on the effect of crowd noise on players (not the irritating artificial stuff they're piping through on TV).
     
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  12. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    But just for the sake of comparison, if my Auntie replaced her lady parts With meat and 2 veg, she’d be my uncle.
     
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  13. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Just finished watching last's night's game. LOVE my U-Verse DVR lol!!! Looking at the "statistics", it looks like the Titans played well last night but watching the actual game itself, it seemed as if the Titans were far from sharp. Henry was slow hitting the holes and didn't have the explosive and breakaway power we were accustomed to last season. Tannehill made some poor throws, missing some wide open targets and choosing the wrong receiver.

    Bottom line, it looked more like a preseason game, much like we saw with every team this week.
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    A solid performance is not pedestrian if the context of that performance is difficult. Again...... for the people who don't understand football context..... Good game, on the road, against a good defense, when the OL and the running game were off....... You know, the kind of game you claim he CAN'T win. No, its one for proving you wrong, again.....
     
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  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL @ suggesting he needed 452 passing yards....... could you twist things any more?

    there were at least 4 drops, and a missed TD at the end. Bump his stats to 33 of 43, 300 yards, 3 TDs and his passer rating is 118.4....... He threw with the same anticipation, with mostly the same accuracy, into the same tight windows, under similar duress as last season. One game samples are pointless to compare passer rating. Too little data. Hell if Brown catches that last TD, his passer rating is 108 with no other changes..... literally one pass changes the passer rating by 11 points......
     
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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I guess there's always one guy who has to say something like that, even though I made the disclaimer....
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There was also an INT that was nullified due to penalty. Or do you count only the "would haves" that are positive?

    As I said, chalk game one up to being more "Miami" than "Tennessee," in terms of passer rating, which is what we've been going on all along here. Whether the remaining games will be more consistent with Miami than with Tennessee remains to be seen.
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If he played an entire career of games like that, his career would be non-significantly different from average.
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Who plays an entire career on the road against good defenses? Since when is 32 TDs and 0 INTs on the season average? And if Brown doesn't drop the last TD, it would be 48 TDs and 0 INTs.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another detraction from Tannehill's performance last night.
     
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I still predict he will have a passer rating of around 105 this season. Last night changes nothing.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    32 TDs and 0 INTs would most certainly be average in terms of passer rating if the league average passer rating was 96, as it was this past week, and those TDs and INTs were accompanied by 464 completions on 688 pass attempts (Tannehill's values last night X 16).
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Based on how the league functions due to the modern-day rules of the game, every QB on every team has to be "the difference" the majority of the time, or they won't be in the league long. If they're "the difference" almost all the time, then they're one of the best QBs in the league. Being the difference in a single-game scenario isn't anything extraordinary or meaningful.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    He's been in one contract year in his career, and that was last year. We'll have to see if that was responsible in large part for the positive difference in his performance, and if so, how that in turn affects Tannehill's performance in 2020. Based on the correlation between Henry and Tannehill's performance in 2019, a "deflated" Derrick Henry would have quite an effect on Tannehill.
     
  25. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    97.9 rating 2TDs 0 Turnovers, multiple 10+ play drives, and a game winning drive at the end. The dude was 6 inches from having a 3rd TD right before the game winning drive.




    Tannehill was not perfect but this idea he wasn't good last night is pure bull****.
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Where do you see anybody saying he "wasn't good"?
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    When his performance is referred to as "pedestrian."
     
  28. Hexonx

    Hexonx Active Member

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    Not sure what game you watched but he won, 29-43 2 TDs 0 - INT, yeah he sucks. God amazing how much hate people have.
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    OK, so let's just forget about adjectives, then. His performance in terms of passer rating -- which is the measure used throughout the thread to make so much meaning of his performance in 2019 -- was statistically no different from league average this past week.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The percentage of offensive plays that were pass dropbacks for Tannehill last night was 56.4%

    Here were the regular season data from last year in that regard:

    Passer Rating ; % Pass Dropbacks
    130.8 ; 33.33
    155.8 ; 36.54
    140.4 ; 45.76
    133.9 ; 46.94
    131.2 ; 48.28
    120.1 ; 51.67
    133.6 ; 55.17
    92.2 ; 56.72
    109.8 ; 63.16
    82.3 ; 67.19
    78.1 ; 66.67

    Notice what happened to his passer rating when his percentage of pass dropbacks reached 56% and above.
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    First game with an extremely limited off-season, and you're chomping at the bit to make it mean something? I mean, come on man. I hate playing the "if" game, but he was one pass away from being like 108.

    Let the season play out.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Wait a second. If you're looking for statistical significance for a single game passer rating, then you need to compare to the distribution of single game passer ratings. That's different than the distribution of team passer ratings we've been comparing "QB season" passer ratings to. In 2019 the standard deviation of all single game passer ratings by starting QB's was 28.59, which is about 2.5 times the standard deviation for team passer ratings.

    In other words, a single game passer rating would be "statistically significant" at approximately 1.96*28.59 = 56 passer rating points above or below league average (that 1.96 comes from assuming a normal distribution). That means that statistical significance occurs at 146 or above, or 34 or below, and not achieving that isn't really that meaningful IMO.

    If however you want to compare to "season" passer ratings, a good rule is minimum 150 trials. Fewer attempts than that and it's very unlikely any difference you see will be statistically significant. So as far as I'm concerned, until you get to around 150 attempts, I'd actually stick with the adjectives lol.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No what I meant in that response is that we don't yet know what the league average passer rating for 2020 will be. All we know at this point is that in week one it was 96. So Tannehill's performance to date -- his "season" passer rating -- isn't deviating significantly from league average for the season.

    Obviously there can be little if any meaning made of that right now, but if the league average passer rating in 2020 ends up being 96 and Tannehill puts up 97s all year, that'll be highly noteworthy.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK.. in that case let's wait until 150 attempts before making that kind of comparison because at this point there is no "provisional season passer rating" that would be statistically significant given sample size. Can't ignore sample size when talking about statistical significance.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If it's meaningless, why bring it up though? And then to tack a hypothetical situation on top of a meaningless stat seems to serve no purpose.
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The fact that the league average passer rating in week one was roughly six points higher than the league average for the season last year merely highlights the fact that there has been variation in that statistic from year to year, and so the 97 Tannehill posted last night doesn't yet have meaning. The point is more about how we can't say the 97 is significantly different from league average, because we don't yet know what league average will be. On the other hand the league average could plummet to 86 and finish the season there, and if Tannehill continues posting 97s he'll be quite distinctive.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well as Cash pointed out...Tannehill played well...not GREAT....but quite well in a high volume, essentially preseason game.
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That actually wasn't a high-volume passing game by league standards, if you define "high-volume" as above the league average percentage of offensive plays that are pass dropbacks. That game was merely high-volume for Tannehill, in comparison to his own performance in 2019. Obviously when his volume is nearly two standard deviations below the league average, high-volume for him will be different than high-volume for the average QB.
     
  39. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    You would have to know the play and the progression of the read to really say Tannehill missed him. If Tannehills first read was open that’s just how the play was drawn up. Or if AJB was on the backside of a play where Tannehill was only working half the field it would be nearly impossible for AJB to get the ball unless the play breaks down. AJB didn’t appear to be the focal point of the game plan last night. There isn’t anything wrong with that as long as the other produce.
     
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  40. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    AM I in Bizarro land here? WHY is this thread even in the Dolphins forum still can a mod move it please? Hes not been a dolphin for over two years!!! Who care how good / bad he is compared to anything. HES NOT A DOLPHIN!!! Lets discuss how we can get our team better instead of constantly talking about ryan. Pretty please I asked nicely!
     
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