Ryan Tannehill

"danmarino wrote:

In regards to rushing attempts, over the last 19 years, the Patriots have averaged 10th best in the league. In 10 of those 19 seasons, they finished better than 10th.

In regards to total rushing yards, over the last 19 years, the Patriots averaged 14th best in the league. In 8 of those 19 seasons they finished 10th or best eight times.

Those who believe the Pats haven't had good rushing teams, RB's, etc. are just flat wrong.

Almost the entire difference in rushing attempts between winning and losing teams is due to the 4th quarter when the winning team is trying to run out the clock, so it's best not to use rushing yards and rushing attempts as measures of team rushing ability.

Rushing Y/A is the best measure among the ones listed, and NE has not been good there. Since 2001-2019 their average z-score is -0.4 which corresponds to bottom 35th percentile.

So while I agree that Brady has had some good offensive weapons, and definitely a good OL, he's generally not had a good rushing game in terms of rushing efficiency. The stats you list are more due to NE having a lead so often rather than the other way around.

"cbrad wrote:

Almost the entire difference in rushing attempts between winning and losing teams is due to the 4th quarter when the winning team is trying to run out the clock, so it's best not to use rushing yards and rushing attempts as measures of team rushing ability.

Rushing Y/A is the best measure among the ones listed, and NE has not been good there. Since 2001-2019 their average z-score is -0.4 which corresponds to bottom 35th percentile.

So while I agree that Brady has had some good offensive weapons, and definitely a good OL, he's generally not had a good rushing game in terms of rushing efficiency. The stats you list are more due to NE having a lead so often rather than the other way around.

Being able to run the ball efficiently in the 4th quarter, when other teams know that's what you're doing, means a team has a good running game.

I found an article I read years ago...it's an interesting read.

"danmarino wrote:

Being able to run the ball efficiently in the 4th quarter, when other teams know that's what you're doing, means a team has a good running game.

Right, and that's rushing efficiency (Y/A), not rushing attempts or rushing yards per se (yards goes up with attempts). And by rushing efficiency NE was not that good.

"The Guy wrote:

Just list all the offensive players from the Brady era who will make the Hall of Fame.

If Brady is being carried by his surrounding cast to the tune of a dynasty, league MVP awards, several Super Bowl wins, and his own first-ballot HoF induction, there must be a ton of 'em....

Or is he somehow being carried to those heights by non-exceptional surrounding talent?

IMO There is a difference between stating Brady has had good talent around him and saying the talent was HOF caliber and carried him. If the first statement is the debate we are having I'd back that. If it's the second statement that is far less true.

Hes always had solid professional WR who do their job regardless of Brady himself. Doesnt mean they are HOF players.

"texanphinatic wrote:

So you have nothing. Good to know.

Randy Moss for about 2 seasons, Gronk for about 7 (he missed about 2 seasons worth of games due to various injuries), Welker/Edelman if you want to count them as a HOF type I guess? Best RB Brady had was Kevin Faulk and he never even made a pro-bowl.

Meanwhile Manning had: Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders. Not even going to mention the TEs.

Is this a joke? Whenever Brady had comparable talent on offense he won MVP awards just like buddy boy Peyton lol.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Randy Moss for about 2 seasons, Gronk for about 7 (he missed about 2 seasons worth of games due to various injuries), Welker/Edelman if you want to count them as a HOF type I guess? Best RB Brady had was Kevin Faulk and he never even made a pro-bowl.

Meanwhile Manning had: Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders. Not even going to mention the TEs.

Is this a joke? Whenever Brady had comparable talent on offense he won MVP awards just like buddy boy Peyton lol.

You're still hung up on Brady vs. Manning? lol..

I agree with you that Peyton probably had better offensive weapons than Brady, but Brady's defense was on average FAR better. And the influence of the entire defense is a LOT bigger than that of the offense minus QB (so just surrounding cast of the QB on offense).

By points allowed (all that matters), Peyton's defenses were on average ranked 14.6 while Brady's defenses were on average ranked 7.1.

So since you're so hung up on SB wins, ask yourself this: how many SB's would Peyton have won had he played with Brady's defense? Maybe the difference becomes negligible between the two?

"cbrad wrote:

Right, and that's rushing efficiency (Y/A), not rushing attempts or rushing yards per se (yards goes up with attempts). And by rushing efficiency NE was not that good.

Are you including rushes by the QB, WR's, and/or any other garbage time player? This will skew the results. The Pats have definitely been able to run very effectively and above average during the overwhelming majority of Brady's career.

"danmarino wrote:

Are you including rushes by the QB, WR's, and/or any other garbage time player? This will skew the results. The Pats have definitely been able to run very effectively and above average during the overwhelming majority of Brady's career.

Rushes by all. Yes, it will skew things a bit but bottom 35th percentile isn't going to turn into a "good rushing offense" with that small bias.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Randy Moss for about 2 seasons, Gronk for about 7 (he missed about 2 seasons worth of games due to various injuries), Welker/Edelman if you want to count them as a HOF type I guess? Best RB Brady had was Kevin Faulk and he never even made a pro-bowl.

Meanwhile Manning had: Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders. Not even going to mention the TEs.

Is this a joke? Whenever Brady had comparable talent on offense he won MVP awards just like buddy boy Peyton lol.

Point to where I said Manning had a worse supporting cast than Brady please, thanks and lol.

You asked for a list of "good" running backs and pass catchers, you got one, stop crying.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

IMO There is a difference between stating Brady has had good talent around him and saying the talent was HOF caliber and carried him. If the first statement is the debate we are having I'd back that. If it's the second statement that is far less true.

Hes always had solid professional WR who do their job regardless of Brady himself. Doesnt mean they are HOF players.

How often does a team not have that?

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Randy Moss for about 2 seasons, Gronk for about 7 (he missed about 2 seasons worth of games due to various injuries), Welker/Edelman if you want to count them as a HOF type I guess? Best RB Brady had was Kevin Faulk and he never even made a pro-bowl.

Meanwhile Manning had: Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders. Not even going to mention the TEs.

Is this a joke? Whenever Brady had comparable talent on offense he won MVP awards just like buddy boy Peyton lol.

You're using a lot of subjectivity and ignorance when you leave out players the Pats have had and also refuse to look at the team as a whole. I mean, isn't that what the Pats are known for?

2001- Smith- 1157 yards- 4.0 y/a
2002- Smith + Faulk- 1253 yards- 4.1 y/a
2003- Smith + Faulk- 1280 yards- 3.6 y/a
2004- Dillion (Who you left out) + Faulk- 1990 yards- 4.7 y/a
2005- Dillion + Pass- 978 yards- 3.7 y/a
2006- Dillion- Maroney- 1557 yards- 4.2 y/a
2007- Maroney + Morris- 1219 yards- 4.5 y/a
2008- Morris + Faulk- 1234 yards- 5.2 y/a
2009- Morris + Maroney- 1076 yards- 4.0 y/a
2010- GreenEllis + Woodhead- 1555 yards- 4.8 y/a
2011- GreenEllis + Rodley- 1108 yards- 4.1 y/a
2012- Ridley + Woodhead- 1564 yards- 4.3 y/a
2013- Ridley + Blount- 1545 yards- 4.7 y/a
2014- Vareen + Ridley + Blount + Gray- 1424 yards- 4.2 y/a
2015- Blount + Lewis- 937 yards- 4.4 y/a
2016- Blount + Lewis- 1444 yards- 4.1 y/a
2017- Lewis + Gillisee- 1279 yards- 4.5 y/a
2018- Michel + White- 1356 yards- 4.5 y/a
2019- Michel + White- 1175 yards- 3.7 y/a

Over 19 seasons the Pats have average 4.3 yards per carry if you just include their top 2 RB's.

Here is the Colts with Manning:

1998- Faulk + Warren- 1380 yards- 3.9 y/a
1999- James- 1553- 4.2 y/a
2000- James- 1709- 4.4 y/a
2001- Rhodes + James- 1768 yards- 4.6 y/a
2002- James + Mungro- 1325 yards- 3.5 y/a
2003- James + Williams- 1414 yards- 3.9 y/a
2004- James + Rhodes- 1802 yards- 4.6 y/a
2005- James + Rhodes- 1624 yards- 4.0 y/a
2006- Addai + Rhodes- 1722 yards- 4.1 y/a
2007- Addai + Kieth- 1605 yards- 4.2 y/a
2008- Addai + Rhodes- 1084 yards- 3.5 y/a
2009- Addai + Brown- 1109 yards- 3.7 y/a
2010- Brown + Addai- 992 yards- 4.0 y/a

In 13 seasons with Manning, the Colts averaged 4.0 y/a

"cbrad wrote:

Rushes by all. Yes, it will skew things a bit but bottom 35th percentile isn't going to turn into a "good rushing offense" with that small bias.

It seems to show that they were better than the Colts were?

"danmarino wrote:

It seems to show that they were better than the Colts were?

The average z-score for rushing Y/A for the 13 years Manning was with the Colts is -0.495 so worse than the -0.4 Brady had in 18 years with NE. The average z-score for rushing Y/A for the 4 years Manning was in Denver is -0.268 so better than Brady at NE.

Overall, Manning's teams' rushing Y/A z-score is -0.4415 so a bit worse than Brady.

Relative to the league however, both are pretty bad: Brady's is bottom 35th percentile while Manning's is bottom 32nd percentile.

That's of course including all rushing. I know you looked at the top 2 RB's and came to a similar result. I think in principle you want to look at all rushing but without kneels, or something like that, but the results are probably no different.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

So splitting hairs basically, just like their regular season passer ratings. Him consistently having better receivers is undeniable by most sane people.

I'm sorry most people don't consider Manning top 2 all-time but he's probably got that #3 spot locked down for a little while if it makes you feel any better.

You love to make claims without any proof.

"danmarino wrote:

You're using a lot of subjectivity and ignorance when you leave out players the Pats have had and also refuse to look at the team as a whole. I mean, isn't that what the Pats are known for?

2001- Smith- 1157 yards- 4.0 y/a
2002- Smith + Faulk- 1253 yards- 4.1 y/a
2003- Smith + Faulk- 1280 yards- 3.6 y/a
2004- Dillion (Who you left out) + Faulk- 1990 yards- 4.7 y/a
2005- Dillion + Pass- 978 yards- 3.7 y/a
2006- Dillion- Maroney- 1557 yards- 4.2 y/a
2007- Maroney + Morris- 1219 yards- 4.5 y/a
2008- Morris + Faulk- 1234 yards- 5.2 y/a
2009- Morris + Maroney- 1076 yards- 4.0 y/a
2010- GreenEllis + Woodhead- 1555 yards- 4.8 y/a
2011- GreenEllis + Rodley- 1108 yards- 4.1 y/a
2012- Ridley + Woodhead- 1564 yards- 4.3 y/a
2013- Ridley + Blount- 1545 yards- 4.7 y/a
2014- Vareen + Ridley + Blount + Gray- 1424 yards- 4.2 y/a
2015- Blount + Lewis- 937 yards- 4.4 y/a
2016- Blount + Lewis- 1444 yards- 4.1 y/a
2017- Lewis + Gillisee- 1279 yards- 4.5 y/a
2018- Michel + White- 1356 yards- 4.5 y/a
2019- Michel + White- 1175 yards- 3.7 y/a

Over 19 seasons the Pats have average 4.3 yards per carry if you just include their top 2 RB's.

Here is the Colts with Manning:

1998- Faulk + Warren- 1380 yards- 3.9 y/a
1999- James- 1553- 4.2 y/a
2000- James- 1709- 4.4 y/a
2001- Rhodes + James- 1768 yards- 4.6 y/a
2002- James + Mungro- 1325 yards- 3.5 y/a
2003- James + Williams- 1414 yards- 3.9 y/a
2004- James + Rhodes- 1802 yards- 4.6 y/a
2005- James + Rhodes- 1624 yards- 4.0 y/a
2006- Addai + Rhodes- 1722 yards- 4.1 y/a
2007- Addai + Kieth- 1605 yards- 4.2 y/a
2008- Addai + Rhodes- 1084 yards- 3.5 y/a
2009- Addai + Brown- 1109 yards- 3.7 y/a
2010- Brown + Addai- 992 yards- 4.0 y/a

In 13 seasons with Manning, the Colts averaged 4.0 y/a

And you're trying to do that by comparing YPC? That's the stat you're going to hang your hat on?

First of all, Manning had a HOF RB across the first 8 years of his career. M.Faulk in 1998 and E.James from 1999--2005.

And beyond that, using the stats that you provided (minus 2008 for NE, which makes no sense to have been included, since Brady only played 1 game; you didn't include INDY'S stats in 2011 when Peyton was injured, so let's keep the criteria level).
--NE RB's: 1327 yards per season
--INDY RB's: 1468 yards per season

So Manning's RB's ran for more yards on average, than Brady's RB's did. But it's easy to ignore that when you're trying to grasp at straws to knock Brady.

Oh, and I also realize why you did include 2008 when Brady was out after Week 1. Looking at your stats, that happens to be a 5.2 YPC season for NE RB's (which is by far the best number they had according to your stats).

So let's sum up...
--You used YPC of all stats to try and prove Brady had better RB's.
--You ignored that Manning had 2 HOF RB's across the majority of his INDY career.
--You ignored that INDY RB's averaged more rushing yards per season than NE RB's.
--You included a season Brady played just 1 game in, to try and boost the NE YPC numbers to make it look like they were better than INDY RB's.

Wow.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

And you're trying to do that by comparing YPC? That's the stat you're going to hang your hat on?

As danmarino said, you should look at team rushing ability, not just individual RB's.

YPC is the correct stat to use for team rushing ability because of what I said earlier (post #5899): almost the entire difference in rushing attempts between winning and losing teams is due to the 4th quarter. Here are the stats:

You can see that point differential affects rushing attempts in an important way only in the 4th quarter. That's the leading team trying to run out the clock. So you don't want to use rushing attempts or rushing yards (which go up as a function of rushing attempts) to measure how good a team is at running the ball. YPC is the best stat among the ones we have.

Now, that changes if you're talking about individual running backs because only the better ones keep starting and getting carries, so both rushing attempts and rushing yards will strongly correlate with who the best running backs are, but that's only over a career and ONLY for individuals, not teams. So you want to argue which RB's are likely HoF's, rushing yards is probably the best measure.

But danmarino's post was about the team, and as I pointed out earlier (post #5911) the z-scores for BOTH Brady's and Manning's teams' rushing efficiencies are well below average, with it being slightly better for Brady.

"cbrad wrote:

As danmarino said, you should look at team rushing ability, not just individual RB's.

YPC is the correct stat to use for team rushing ability because of what I said earlier (post #5899): almost the entire difference in rushing attempts between winning and losing teams is due to the 4th quarter. Here are the stats:

You can see that point differential affects rushing attempts in an important way only in the 4th quarter. That's the leading team trying to run out the clock. So you don't want to use rushing attempts or rushing yards (which go up as a function of rushing attempts) to measure how good a team is at running the ball. YPC is the best stat among the ones we have.

Now, that changes if you're talking about individual running backs because only the better ones keep starting and getting carries, so both rushing attempts and rushing yards will strongly correlate with who the best running backs are, but that's only over a career and ONLY for individuals, not teams. So you want to argue which RB's are likely HoF's, rushing yards is probably the best measure.

But danmarino's post was about the team, and as I pointed out earlier (post #5911) the z-scores for BOTH Brady's and Manning's teams' rushing efficiencies are well below average, with it being slightly better for Brady.

Not just the leading team running out the clock, but the trailing team abandons the run too.

Out of interest is it possible to do a similar graph on interception% based on quarter and points difference?

"Pauly wrote:

Not just the leading team running out the clock, but the trailing team abandons the run too.

Out of interest is it possible to do a similar graph on interception% based on quarter and points difference?

Yeah.. results are as expected (for reference, I'm just dividing INT's by pass attempts and not counting sacks as pass attempts):

Manning is the greatest regular reason QB of all time.

Problem is, in every sport your legacy is made in the playoffs. He’s choked so many times in the playoffs. No thanks.

"cbrad wrote:

Yeah.. results are as expected (for reference, I'm just dividing INT's by pass attempts and not counting sacks as pass attempts):

Brady has been sacked 100 plus more than Manning.

But Brady has top rbs, wrs, olines. Lol.

It is funny that those "good rbs and wrs" failed when Brady wasnt their QB any longer. Just an example: Deoin Lewis. The dude is a scrub.

"cbrad wrote:

The average z-score for rushing Y/A for the 13 years Manning was with the Colts is -0.495 so worse than the -0.4 Brady had in 18 years with NE. The average z-score for rushing Y/A for the 4 years Manning was in Denver is -0.268 so better than Brady at NE.

Overall, Manning's teams' rushing Y/A z-score is -0.4415 so a bit worse than Brady.

Relative to the league however, both are pretty bad: Brady's is bottom 35th percentile while Manning's is bottom 32nd percentile.

That's of course including all rushing. I know you looked at the top 2 RB's and came to a similar result. I think in principle you want to look at all rushing but without kneels, or something like that, but the results are probably no different.

Most teams run the ball with either 1 main guy or split the carries with 2 guys. Of course there are those plays where a WR may run a reverse, or the QB tries to avoid a sack and as you know those count as rushes.

I think what I did tells a little more of the true story. I've never watched the Pats over the past 20 years and thought they couldn't pick up that 3rd and 4...even if they run the ball.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

And you're trying to do that by comparing YPC? That's the stat you're going to hang your hat on?

First of all, Manning had a HOF RB across the first 8 years of his career. M.Faulk in 1998 and E.James from 1999--2005.

And beyond that, using the stats that you provided (minus 2008 for NE, which makes no sense to have been included, since Brady only played 1 game; you didn't include INDY'S stats in 2011 when Peyton was injured, so let's keep the criteria level).
--NE RB's: 1327 yards per season
--INDY RB's: 1468 yards per season

So Manning's RB's ran for more yards on average, than Brady's RB's did. But it's easy to ignore that when you're trying to grasp at straws to knock Brady.

Oh, and I also realize why you did include 2008 when Brady was out after Week 1. Looking at your stats, that happens to be a 5.2 YPC season for NE RB's (which is by far the best number they had according to your stats).

So let's sum up...
--You used YPC of all stats to try and prove Brady had better RB's.
--You ignored that Manning had 2 HOF RB's across the majority of his INDY career.
--You ignored that INDY RB's averaged more rushing yards per season than NE RB's.
--You included a season Brady played just 1 game in, to try and boost the NE YPC numbers to make it look like they were better than INDY RB's.

Wow.

You're lost and have no idea what you're talking about.

Let's talk about your summary:

Yes, I used YPC. I see that cbrad already explained why.
I didn't ignore anything in regards to Manning's RB's. Did you miss their names in the stats?
I clearly showed that Indy's RB's were not as effective as the Pat's RB's.
I was comparing the Pats and Indy. How you think I tried to "boost" NE's YPC is beyond me.

Wow is right.

Why would it matter what the Colts backs did without Peyton, if we're looking at what actually occurred with Peyton?

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Brady has been sacked 100 plus more than Manning.

But Brady has top rbs, wrs, olines. Lol.

It is funny that those "good rbs and wrs" failed when Brady wasnt their QB any longer. Just an example: Deoin Lewis. The dude is a scrub.

So the only thing that changed for Lewis was not having Brady?

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Manning is the greatest regular reason QB of all time.

Problem is, in every sport your legacy is made in the playoffs. He’s choked so many times in the playoffs. No thanks.

And yet Manning and Brady have played very similarly in the post season.

Just stop. You're not able to understand what's going on. Nearly everything you've written has been debunked.

You have a preconceived notion about Brady, probably because you're fairly ignorant about football and you were 8 years old when he came into the league. No one here is claiming that Brady isn't a HoF QB. Hell, no one here is even saying that there isn't an argument for Brady being better than Manning (I don't believe that). However, there is no way that Manning was a "choker" in the post season. There is also no way to show that Brady was better by any measurable way than Manning in the post season unless you look at wins. And wins are TEAM accomplishments.

"danmarino wrote:

Hell, no one here is even saying that there isn't an argument for Brady being better than Manning (I don't believe that).

I've tried to stay out of this sillyness as long as possible, but I think it's time to share the average Miami fan's opinion.

Brady + Belichek + Adams= the best football trio of all time. And because they got caught cheating over and over and over again, they're all losers in my book. I wouldn't put Brady in my top-100 quarterbacks because of deflated footballs and stolen signals/playbooks alone.