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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    2 vote(s)
    4.0%
  3. An average QB

    6 vote(s)
    12.0%
  4. An above average QB

    24 vote(s)
    48.0%
  5. An elite QB

    14 vote(s)
    28.0%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    8.0%
  1. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I know... I admire your tenacity... I only have so much energy and attention I can throw at someone who is never going to listen or admit what they are reading.
     
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  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well, he pissed me off.....
     
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  3. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This!!!!!

    Thank you Thank you Thank you.

    I have tried several times to tell Guy that Tannehill's low passing games came from extreme efficiency where he built a lead and the Head coach decided to let his running back chew some clock control the ball and change the field position. I tried to tell him that these things were not possible if Tannehill did not play great and get his team a lead.

    We both know he ignored it.

    In the games where the offense was not firing on all cylinders early and they did not build a lead.... When they needed Tannehill to abandon the run late and throw he did... And he was still fantastic.

    You will notice that after you made this post he starts referencing the 31 + pass attempts from before this season.

    He keeps moving the goal posts. Every time one of his points gets destroyed.
     
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  4. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am not pissed.... Perplexed.... I mean WTF dude.... Give it up while you are behind.... LOL
     
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  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That was covered in post #8174, 110 posts ago.
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And oddly, you claimed he wasn't in that situation in 2019...... weird.....

    I'm going to respond to every one of your posts with this question until you answer it directly:

    Why was the cause of the lower passer rating in the "high volume" games THE LOW VOLUME FIRST HALVES.

    Stop deflecting and explain it. It is very simple. There are only four games. You should be able to handle it.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That was covered in post #8260, 26 posts ago.
     
  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    2019, Tenn v LAC
    Tenn
    1st 10; 24 yard pass
    1st 10; run -1 yard
    2nd 11; 4 yard pass (5 yard penalty)
    2nd 16; 6 yard pass
    3rd 10; 2 yard pass
    4th 8; 11 yard pass
    1st 10; 6 yard run
    2nd 4; -2 yard run
    3rd 6; incomplete pass
    4th 6; FG

    1 series by Tennessee
    6 pass plays, 3 rushes
    Tannehill 4/5 43 yards; 80% completion, QBR 102.5

    Series 2
    1st 10; 5 yard run
    2nd 5; 11 yard pass
    1st 10; 2 yard run
    2nd 8; 16 yard pass
    1st 10; 3 yard run
    2nd 7; 2 yard run
    3rd 5; incomplete pass
    4th 5; punt

    3 pass plays, 4 rushes
    Tannehill 2/3, 27 yards, 66% completion, 95.14 QBR

    Series 3
    1st 10; 16 yard pass
    1st 10; 2 yard run
    2nd 8; 15 yard pass
    1st 10; 18 yard pass
    1st 10; 12 yard run
    1st 10; 4 yard run
    2nd 6; 11 yard pass
    1st 10; 8 yard pass, TD

    5 pass plays, 3 runs
    Tannehill 5/5 68 yards, 100% completion, 158.33 QBR

    Phone is about to die but if you want to evaluate a quarterback, evaluate series by series and his production. These 3 series alone blow away some of the idiotic anti-Tannehill arguments
     
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  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No it wasn’t. I asked you to address what happened in those games specifically. You have not done that.
     
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  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the people like yourself who bop in here from time to time and repeatedly demonstrate a misunderstanding of what's going on don't deserve much of a response in my opinion. If you want to get involved in the topic then follow it better.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There's nothing more I can do for you with regard to that topic than point you back to post #8260. I could simply repeat the post but it's already there for anyone who wants to see it.
     
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I’m done debating with you. Every time your argument gets proven wrong, you simply change your argument to a new, equally wrong, interpretation of some arcane statistics that you’ve painstakingly assembled for the predetermined purpose of finding some reason why Tannehill can’t succeed.
     
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  13. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    LMAO!!!!!

    I thought this was a FOOTBALL forum, not a statistical symposium.

    My analysis is based on football, not just numbers. Numbers alone don’t tell the entire story
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I'm just going to leave your stuff alone from now on. Take care.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No dude. He just blew your theory to ****. First three drives there, were not driven by Henry gashing the defense. In fact, TANNEHILL was the one with success.

    And it's HILARIOUS that you, of all people, are accusing someone of not understanding what's going on.

    Cognitive dissonance is strong with you.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2020
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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The reason you've tried "several times" and failed is because the information you're conveying (highlighted above) is false.

    During Tannehill's starts (games 7 through 16), the Titans entered the fourth quarter with a cumulative scoring margin of -1. During the previous three quarters of those games, Tannehill's passing volume was 1.98 standard deviations below the league average.

    They weren't passing the ball so little because they had a lead.

    Compare that to Baltimore, for example, which had the only lower passing volume in the league in quarters 1 through 3 in games 7 through 16, but which entered the fourth quarter of those games with a cumulative scoring margin of +160.

    They were passing the ball so little because they had a lead.

    This was covered in post #7684, roughly 600 posts ago.

    Are you going to digest this information this time, or are you going to persist in presenting something false and then wondering why it doesn't change someone else's mind?

    Once again, Tannehill's passing volume was extremely low, and it wasn't because of his own efficiency or a lead the team had on the scoreboard.
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The post you're talking about was based on only three consecutive drives. What can we possibly conclude on the basis of a sample size that small?

    Look here:

    Drive 1
    Ryan Tannehill pass short middle intended for A.J. Brown is intercepted by Donte Jackson at TEN-31 and returned for no gain

    Drive 2
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short left intended for Jonnu Smith (defended by Tre Boston)
    Ryan Tannehill up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Kyle Love)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short right intended for A.J. Brown

    Drive 3
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Corey Davis for 11 yards (tackle by Ross Cockrell)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short middle intended for Anthony Firkser (defended by Luke Kuechly)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Adam Humphries for 11 yards (tackle by Shaq Thompson)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Dion Lewis for 24 yards (tackle by Eric Reid). Penalty on Brian Burns: Defensive Offside (Declined)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Dion Lewis for -2 yards (tackle by Shaq Thompson)
    Ryan Tannehill sacked by Marquis Haynes for -7 yards
    Ryan Tannehill spiked the ball

    Three consecutive drives there, with an overall passer rating of 19.9 (yes that's nineteen point nine).

    Now Tannehill's 2019 league-leading passer rating is meaningless, correct? What are we doing here talking about a season passer rating of 117.5 when he had three drives in which his passer rating was 19.9?

    Come on man, you seem smarter than that.

    At this point you're jumping on the bandwagon of people who 1) present false information repeatedly (see the post just above this one), 2) make analytical errors like failing to understand the importance of sample size (the post we're referring to here), or 3) can't simply acknowledge that Tannehill's passing volume was extremely low in 2019 and that it raises a question about whether his performance is replicable (posts throughout the thread).

    I'm spending a little more time with you here because you actually seem redeemable, but I'm about to pack it up and head out given that the only folks who continue to post here are the intransigents who fall into the above categories.
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm going to go ahead and change the focus here, folks, at least from the perspective of the kind of conversation I'm willing to participate in.

    As has been pointed out repeatedly, Andy Dalton in 2015 and Nick Foles in 2013 had great single seasons just like Tannehill did in 2019, and theirs were situated within otherwise unremarkable careers.

    How do you know Tannehill's 2019 season wasn't of the same ilk, and that he won't simply come crashing back down to his previously average level in 2020 and beyond?

    Let's see if anyone can support their perspective on that with objective information, and not just personal opinions about surrounding casts on the Dolphins and Titans or whatever else. I'll sit back and watch and chime in if I get the impulse to. Good luck.
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Many reasons:

    1. Since 1990, 19 different QBs have led the league in passer rating, only 2 (Harbaugh, Griese) have not had similar success in other seasons. 17 have had success in multiple seasons.

    2. Of the top 25 single season passer ratings of all time (16 QBs), only 2 (Foles, Plum) didn't have success in multiple seasons.

    3. Tannehill played similarly (> 100 passer rating) from 2014 through 2016 (totaling more than 16 games) when his starting OL was intact.

    4. Tannehill has a history of play action passing success. From 2015 through 2017, he had the 4th highest QB rating (117.9) on play action passes.

    5. Tannehill excelled in far too many situations (#1 passer from clean pocket, #1 passer under pressure, 6th best against the blitz, #1 play action passer) to be shutdown completely.

    6. He excelled in far too many passing elements (accuracy, depth of throws, difficult throws) to be shutdown completely.

    7. He excelled at far too many types of throws (ranked best at 3-step Drop, Outside the Pocket) to be shutdown completely.

    8. He excelled in passes to far too many areas of the field to be shutdown completely.

    9. He was tied for the best YPC on scrambles also.

    10. The Titans have a multi-year history in this style offense and they are returning nearly all of their players on offense from last year. They are also returning their coaching staff.

    11. Published statistical analysis has shown that passer rating from a clean pocket is one of the most repeatable QB stats.

    12. Play action passing is one of the most easily replicated approaches to successfully throwing the ball. Numerous studies using statistical analysis have shown it does not need an effective running game or a high number of runs to be effective.



    I have shown that:

    1. Being a one hit wonder at this level is far less likely than having additional successful seasons.

    2. Tannehill has had similar success under similar circumstances in the past.

    3. Tannehill showed far more diverse abilities to be easily shutdown.

    4. The Titans have already demonstrated the ability to replicate their offensive system and are returning players and coaches.

    5. The style of offense that was most successful (play action passing) can be replicated whether or not they run the ball with the same success.

    All of this information is objective and comes from independent sites (often multiple for the same facts) with no vested interest in Ryan Tannehill and no known tie to this debate.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2020
  20. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hoping we get some new blood in here... LOL
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude come talk football, don't try to carry on a feud with someone. He's been posting here for awhile, and hasn't been an issue.

    Relax, Sir Lancelot.
     
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  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Also, is this a spam account created to get our favorite thread shut down finally?
     
  23. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is certainly a spam account... guaranteed.

    Thank you for the response.

    Please contact the site administraitor to trace this user's IP address. On the other site I have posted on for over a decade... Someone is creating fake accounts and causing drama... but they never post... they just hand out negatives... ( On that site you can give a positive or a negative to a post. ) Because they never post the owner of the site.... cannot trace their IP...

    Here is hoping that the person running this site can trace the IP and mail that to the person running the other site and he can ban that jackass.

    These games have been going on for months.
     
  24. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Ding Ding Ding. This thread has now become surreal. :sidelol:
     
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  25. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You have no idea....*drama*
     
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  26. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    well the historical instances of a QB having a mediocre early career followed up by a stellar mid to late career are very limited. Depending on high tight or generous you want to be You are looking at as low as 2 or 3 examples or maybe up to a dozen or so.

    The list of QBs who had a one off very good season in an otherwise mediocre career is longer., but it is still a short list.

    I think Tannehill has the all round game that suggests he could be in the first group.
     
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  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The list of QBs that have had a single elite season in an otherwise average career is very very short. I exported the list of all QBs that have played in the NFL since 1970. There are 734 players on the list. If we assume a normal distribution of ability, roughly 500 of those QBs would have "average" ability. The number of those who have put up a single elite statistical season is in the low single digits. Even if there are 5 examples, there is only a 1% chance of that happening.

    I think the odds of him becoming Drew Brees are even lower, but there is plenty of room between Drew Brees and an average QB. There have been many QBs that have had long careers with an occasional top efficiency season, including Ken Anderson, Jim Kelly, Boomer Esiason, Tony Romo, Steve Bartkowski, Ken O'Brien, Alex Smith, and Matt Ryan.

    If I had to guess between Tannehill becoming Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, or Andy Dalton (who I don't hate as a QB), I'd pick Matt Ryan. If the Titans get that, they'll be fine.
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Obviously Vegas odds aren't necessarily accurate predictions of the future, but it's interesting in my opinion that Tannehill's 2020 league MVP odds are so much worse than Matt Ryan's, for example. Right now Tannehill is at +8000 and Matt Ryan +3300. Atop the league are Mahomes +600, Jackson +750, and Wilson +900.

    Derrick Henry: +5000.
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Drew Brees - 1800
    Matt Ryan - 3300
    Tannehill - 6600
    Dalton - Not listed so >30000

    Tannehill is closer to Matt Ryan than Drew Brees or Andy Dalton. Thanks for supporting my case.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What do you think will account for the difference between how he performed in 2019 and how you’re predicting him to perform in 2020? You’re not predicting him to perform at the same level, so there must be a reason why there is a difference.
     
  31. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    If Tannehill helps propel the Titan's to the playoffs again this season there will still be idiots trying to say he's not a good QB.
    Some people just hate to hate.
    Some will just never admit they were wrong.
     
  32. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Someone refusing to admit they were wrong? Nah you must be mistaken... LOL
     
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Already answered
     
  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The short version why I believe Tannehill is more likely to turn his career around than be a one season wonder is coaching.

    Of the QBs who experienced a Drew Brees or Rich Gannon like turnaround in their mid to late careers the common thread is that they escaped from bad/confused coaching.

    Because random distribution is not even distribution we can expect to find one season wonders in all types of sports, especially those with shorter seasons like football. What I believe separates Tannehill from pure random chance one season wonders is
    (a) He demonstrated in Miami that given a Tennessee like situation (i.e. a solid OL and a coach committed to a balanced offense) he could put up very good numbers.
    (b) the track record of his Miami coaches in other environments after leaving Miami indicates they were below average to bad coaches.
    (c) When other offensive skill players moved on from Miami they did not put up improved efficiency stats with other QBs. If they had it would be an indication that Tannehill was part of the problem holding them back.

    Would I bet my house that Tannehill is not a one season wonder who will have a HoF type career in Tennessee? No. However, I think he is more likely to be a Drew Brees type than a Brian Griese type.
     
  35. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 Happy Halloween 2020

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    Well Ryan is in a better position to suit his needs. And really hope he continues to thrive. Heard nothing but class. Tua T hope he can turnout to be under center for the Fins for years. Have not had really a steady QB since Marino or Griese but Ryan comes a pretty good third place despite not being elite. But is thriving with the Titans.
     
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  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No argument here. All good reasons that I have given repeatedly in the past. I just think a HOF career is a bit of a stretch.
     
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  37. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pump the brakes on the hall of fame talk.

    I think Tannehill has 6 or 7 good to great years left... Even on a team that runs the ball and protects leads like the Titans he will throw for 4000 yards in a full season Let's be optimstic and say he throws for another 30,000 yards to add to his career. This means he would end up with about 50,000 passing yards. Playing at a high level he will have a strong QB rating a solid TD to INT ratio.

    But we live in an age where quarterbacks play a long time and this is mostly a passing league... So for the hall of fame unless you have a couple of superbowl rings on your fingers like Eli Manning you are going to get any consideration with anything less than something crazy like 400 touchdowns or 60,000 yards to go along with the QB rating, Td:INT ratio... etc.

    I do not expect Tannehill to have a QB rating of 117 again this season... But I do expect it to be at the triple-digit mark I expect he will complete more than 65% of his passes and be among the top 3 Quarterbacks when it comes to yards per pass.

    With good health Tannehill playing until he is 39 years old would have around 350 touchdowns and between 50,000 and 55,000 yards.

    This puts him right where Eli Manning is. Manning has 57,000 yards and 366 touchdowns. Tannehill throw half as many interceptions have a higher completion percentage and a higher QB rating than Eli by a significant margin. But Eli won two rings playing in New York... So Eli will get in...

    If Tannehill has a couple seasons where he throws 40 touchdowns and still has the wonderful peripherals like he did a season ago... Yeah he probably ekes into the hall. If Tannehill wins a ring... It greatly helps his chances.

    One of the things we should be talking about is this:

    If Tannehill had started game 1 of the season and played at that level for 16 games he would have over 4000 yards and around 35 touchdowns passing and another 7 or 8 running. Where would that place him among NFL QB's? I mean I know we mostly appreciate how much he has grown and how great he was last season. So many people only see that he was 16th in touchdown passes ( Because he only started 10 games )

    So ask yourself, The Titans go 12-4 last year with 16 games from Tannehill. He throws 35 touchdowns runs another 8 in.. and has 4250 yards passing.

    By the way these numbers would equate to

    Yards passing 6th overall ahead of Wilson
    Touchdowns 2nd overall

    Where would that put him in the MVP voting?

    Not denying the absolute incredible athletic ability of Lamar Jackson... Mahomes is amazing also

    But A full season of Tannehill at that level he would have to be a legit MVP candidate

    I say you would have to give him legit consideration When the peripherals get thrown in

    #1 red zone offense
    #2 scoring team in football
    Stats like he made the most difficult throw
    #1 qb with a clean pocket.
    1st in yards per pass
    4th highest QB rating ever recorded
    70% pass completion level
    etc...

    I am not saying that is enough to unseat a guy like Mahomes or beat Jackson for the MVP... But I would say Tannehill in that situation would have to be considered one of the candidates... easily top 5 and possibly top 3

    What is so crazy to me is the length that Guy has gone to diminish what would be a MVP worthy full season
     
  38. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    ^^^THIS^^^

    In this day and age in the NFL, all of the focus goes to players and while player performance and while player performance is instrumental, it is not key. The KEY to perineal success is coaching.

    Look at teams that have had perineal success and objectively ask yourself, what’s the one common factor they’ve had. If you say a great quarterback, you’re wrong. They’ve had great coaching.

    Now while they game itself has evolved, the one thing that remains constant is a team’s coaching staff either having the ability to teach, coach and mentor their players to overcome their opponents or the haven’t.

    Don Shula, Chuck Knoll, Marv Levy, Bill Walsh, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Sean Payton just to name a few. These men all coached during different eras but the constant remains; being able to teach, coach and mentor their players to be better than the teams they’ve faced.

    I don’t believe anyone here would argue that Joe Philbin and Adam Gase were/are great coaches. In fact, the complete opposite would be argued. In any sort of team setting, ultimately you’re only going to be as good as your leadership. Does anyone here really truly believe, with our history of mediocre coaches that a Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning would have succeeded here in Miami? While I have great respect for these players, they would have fallen flat on their faces here. I argue the same thing about Tannehill. He was doomed from jump street. Philbin and Gase couldn’t coach their way out of a wet paper bag with a hole in it and as a result, Tannehill AND the entire Dolphins team were doomed.

    Mike Vrabel appears to be an up and coming GOOD all around coach. He’s smartly built a good TEAM and appears to be that great teacher, coach and mentor that all NFL teams seek for their team.

    I personally believe Tannehill is going to have continued success in Tennessee. I’ve already made bold statements asserting my position but his success won’t be his alone, it’ll be due to the coaching staff if the Titans. If they are successful, the team will be successful.

    In the NFL, coaching is everything. If it wasn’t, teams would keep the same coaches year after year and you would see high profile players fired year after year. That obviously isn’t the case.
     
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  39. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Vrabel is pretty clever.... Like when he beat Bellicheck taking those penalties for delay of the game to chew up all of the clock and there was nothing bellicheck could about it.
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    LMAO

    perineal
    [ˌperəˈnēəl]
    DEFINITION
    1. adjective form of perineum

    perineum
    [ˌperəˈnēəm]
    NOUN
    anatomy
    1. the area between the anus and the scrotum or vulva.
     
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