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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    2 vote(s)
    7.1%
  3. An average QB

    1 vote(s)
    3.6%
  4. An above average QB

    13 vote(s)
    46.4%
  5. An elite QB

    9 vote(s)
    32.1%
  6. The GOAT.

    3 vote(s)
    10.7%
  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Who is claiming that the Tennessee was "exceptionally good" surroundings? You are putting words into many people mouths.
     
  2. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    To me the biggest ball and chain in Ryan’s Dolphins tenure was Adam Gase.

    I wouldn’t dispute that his ineptitude made the surroundings that much more crappy.

    I will say his surroundings in TN with that offense and that staff are pretty ideal for any QB. I mean, look at Ryan’s numbers in two playoff wins? You don’t win those games with your Qb playing like that with just an average supporting offensive cast.

    I hope they win the SB next year however. They need another WR and DE and they are as dangerous as any AFC team not names KC.
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We can't test that, and like I said above, I'm comfortable saying we don't know the degree to which Tannehill's surroundings changed from 2012-2018 to 2019.

    What I'm not comfortable saying is that we know his surroundings 2012-2018 were exceptionally bad only because a bunch of people on a message board agreed about it.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The noteworthy thing there is that his percentage of pass dropbacks in the first two playoff games was 6.3 standard deviations below the regular season league average in 2019. In the regular season he had the second-lowest percentage of pass dropbacks in the league (only Lamar Jackson was lower, for obvious reasons).

    So yeah, if your team has the luxury (provided by Derrick Henry) of essentially having you drop back to pass the ball only when the circumstances are highly favorable, then of course you're going to perform well!

    Now, let's see if that situation is sustainable or replicable in future seasons. I suspect not.
     
  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Why would you use less descriptive data?
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Their 2-4 record and 16 points per game said so. You are proof that people on message boards are often wrong.
     
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  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Prove that they were highly favorable, objectively. I have proof they weren't.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But Guy, literally NO ONE says Miami was bad simply because we think they were bad. That's a strawman argument you've created. We've given tons of stats and facts about the oline, about the coaching, etc, to demonstrate why they were bad.

    My issue is, you're saying there's things that can't be proven, but then you discount that by saying that they were average.
     
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  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why do you assume that the Tennessee opponents weren't willing to let Henry run, and instead were focusing on stopping Tannehill and the passing game? I mean, I'm sure teams know what we know, that rushing isn't nearly as important as passing when it comes to wins, so it would make sense to stop the guy that took a 2-4 team averaging 16 points a game, and lead them to the playoffs, and not worry about Henry.
     
  10. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Here is some proof of what you say. Here is a summary of the OL turnover in Miami from 2012 to 2019. It is a lot to take in but two things are striking. First the average number of seasons that a lineman played 30% or more of the snaps was 1.9. Second, a staggering 13 players never played another down in the NFL after playing 30% or more of the snaps for Miami in their final season. Finally, the average change in snap count year over year for the top 5 linemen was 50% and for all the linemen playing 30% or more of the snaps was 47%.

    In 2013, they had four players that played 40% or more of the snaps THAT NEVER PLAYED ANOTHER DOWN IN THE NFL!!!!!

    Amazingly, the following year, they had three more (all fixes to the OL according to the Guy) that played 30% or more of the snaps, then never played again. From 2013 to 2016, they averaged 2.75 linemen PER YEAR that never played another down in the NFL. If you add Jamil Douglas (who was out of football for 2 years and came back last year as a backup), a ridiculous 3 players per year weren't good enough to play anywhere else in the league AFTER PLAYING a significant number of snaps for the Dolphins.

    8 times from 2013 to 2018 they brought in or promoted a player to start on the line and that player lasted one season and was out of the NFL. The number of "no hit blunders" is unbelievable.

    This is the crap that the Guy has tried to defend for 7 years.

    upload_2020-4-14_9-44-33.png
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    pfffff...

    You guys aren't presenting any facts, your just using confirmation his and an echo chamber to determine that Miami was bad.

    Also, I don't care if Miami was average...all that would mean to me is that the majority of teams are bad. Probably why you see the same basic teams in the playoffs year after year.
     
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  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    What is ignored is that while the surroundings in TN were very good, they have been equally good for many many QBs. How many of them have had a passer rating of 117.5 and a YPA of 9.6?

    Finally, regarding Tannehill's peformance in the playoffs. NE was the #1 pass defense in the league and used a game plan designed to stop the passing game. Tannehill and TN responded by playing strong defense and running the ball.

    Against Baltimore, Tannehill was responsible for 3 of the 4 TDs and punished the Ravens early to create the big lead.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2020
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    You don’t have to convince me. I was in this thread defending the stats vs hidden stats.

    My stance however hasn’t changed that his surroundings were/are pretty damn good
     
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  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I agree 100%
     
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Weird fact that might interest only me. Tom Brady made the playoffs 17 times with the Patriots (damn that hurt to type). In 13 of those playoff series he had 1 or more games with a passer rating below 80. He has passer ratings of 57.5, 57.6, 66.4, 68.6, 70.4, 71.4, 73.3, 76.1, 77.1, and 78.4 in playoff wins.
     
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  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But but but... YOU HAVE YOU ADJUST!!

    /sarcasm
     
  17. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You are assuming it HAS to be one of those things... And you speak of Bias? You WANT it to be one of those things because that is what you are framing argument #137 why you were right all of those years ago when you said Tannehill would never be a Good QB

    The 2012 to 2018 teams were BAD... and the 2019 Titans team is AVERAGE

    But those were not on the list for your little survey. For someone wanting to ignore Bias and explore the data... You sure have a odd way of conducting your experients in the name of being non biased.
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Be warned. He is laying low for a day or two. He will come back later to try to get in the last word, probably by reiterating some old nonsense. Pretty normal behavior for him.
     
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  19. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I wouldnt say they were good surroundings, they just fit his game well.

    They basically have 1 WR and Henry. Their line is average but I cant give plus or minus points for average.
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What more is there to say? There is no definitive way of determining who is right and wrong with regard to the topic. The only thing that could possibly do that is more information, and none will be forthcoming until another NFL season has started.

    Topics like these become nothing but snarky sniping at this point (the quoted post above being an example, as likely will be any responses to this post). I'll pass. You all take care. Let's move on to the draft, where there is something of real value happening.
     
  21. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I agree 100% with this. I've been snarky myself and I apologize for that.

    Your posts on other subjects raise no similar debates or concerns and at the end of the day, even with statistics, it boils down to unquantifiable things, but I absolutely do respect your attempts to use certain stats to tell your view.

    Is it really the end of the world if we all agree to disagree on a fan forum?

    I'd like to see you post this much on other subjects honestly. I think people may have a more sympathetic view point if they saw they agreed on other things.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'd add a caveat. I don't think things turn snarky for no reason. I think things turn snarky when people feel you aren't actually considering the responses you get. I think many feel that you just ignore what they write, and push on with your belief. It isn't a conversation. It's a constant defense of positions.
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't bother me that things get snarky -- I'm not saying I want that to change. It's just a sign for me that the topic has been exhausted.
     
  24. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sidenote

    If you have to change the basis of your argument and cling to statistical data only to abandon it once disproven... after 137 unsuccessful attempts at this, you might want to avoid saying things like: " I come here with facts. "

    Because, dude...
     
  25. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Even though I disagree with him in the end, the statistics he uses are factual and not something he is making up or pulling from his ***.

    The interpretation of what they mean is entirely up for debate IMO but I wouldnt say his argument isnt factual on some level.
     
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  26. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Alex

    I appreciate his tenacity in some ways... But you lose a lot of credibility if you have to make so many different arguments... and one by one they get easily defeated....

    Guy's problem in this regard is that every time his "Facts and Stats" got shot down by people better at looking at data than him... There was no admission of his bias... He just abandoned the stats and facts that he once held so dear and changed gears looking for something else to prove he was right.

    This is the opposite of unbias. When you are unbias you look at the data and then form conclusions based on what the data shows you. He did the opposite... He combs through the data trying to find anything to back up his Bias.

    And we are 180 pages of a thread and we have burned through countless claims by him before he even makes a point that is partially defensible. And through all of that... Still no admission he was wrong. No admission he was biased.
     
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  27. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think we should also consider the fact that he doesnt like to accept "logic" without statistical evidence to back up the logic. Also, just playing devils advocate there are certain times we may feel like we have disproven something but that can be subjective, maybe he doesnt see the refute the same way you or I do or consider it to be disproven.

    I dont know, to me an argument or debate is going back and forth with new information. Unfortunately for the thread I think we ran out of relevant new material a while back which has lead to us all talking in circles for tens of pages.
     
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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well yeah...I mean there hasn't been a football game in months. How long can we talk about like 11 games from Tannehill? Hahaha

    I'm impressed we made it this far.
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you follow the discussion well enough to comment on it in that way.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You're confusing "bias" with a sensible attempt to explore situational explanations for the change in a player's performance for one year, following significantly different performance for six years.

    It would be biased not to explore the situational advantages a player may have been experiencing when that has been his pattern of performance.

    Imagine that someone on the Cincinnati Bengals message board spent part of the offseason between 2015 and 2016 exploring the possible situational advantages afforded Andy Dalton, after he finished second in the league with a passer rating of 105.2, 15 points above the league average that year. Dalton has never had another season like that in his career, and so he must've been experiencing situational advantages that year.

    Likewise, Tannehill may have been experiencing situational advantages in 2019. With regard to whether that was the case, and because of my efforts in this thread, you now know the following:

    1) The correlation between Tannehill's passer rating and Derrick Henry's yards per rush, game-by-game, was astronomically high when compared to the league norm.

    2) Tannehill's percentage of pass dropbacks was the second-lowest in the league in the regular season, behind only Lamar Jackson, and that percentage plummeted even further in the first two games of the playoffs, when it was 6.3 standard deviations below the league average in 2019. That percentage of pass dropbacks (regular season 2019) was significantly lower than the percentage of them he had in his six years in Miami.

    3) Tannehill's performance in high-volume passing games -- i.e., when his percentage of pass dropbacks wasn't so low and was above the league average -- involved a decrement in performance similar to that he exhibited previously in his career, and which isn't seen among the top QBs in the league, ones who exhibit comparatively high season passer ratings on a more consistent basis.

    Now, the meaning of all of those things is up for debate, and again I think we've exhausted the debate and should end it. But it isn't "biased" to have explored those things and reported them here, any more than it would've been "biased" to do the same thing with regard to Andy Dalton after 2015.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2020
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Show me one time where you seriously explored the possibility that the surroundings were crap in Miami and sought out the statistics to demonstrate it. You've never seriously explored that possibility.
     
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  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you understand football well enough to comment, but here we are.
     
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  33. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Guy

    Even if you want to put an asterisk next to it Go ahead...

    4th highest QB rating of all time.

    Higher than Brady when he had Welker and Moss in their prime.

    #1 red zone QB

    #2 scoring offense when he took over as the starter.

    over 70% completion rate ( I am waiting for you to argue that Henry ran after hour practices and also taught Tannehill how to throw a football. )

    Led the NFL in yards per pass.

    Nobody here has suggested that Henry is not a good player. When will you admit that the numbers from Tannehill were special... Completion percentage QB rating Yards per pass... all elite levels... Numbers you see from HOF qb's

    So when will you put on your big boy pants and openly say that Henry or no.... Tannehill f*cking killed it as the QB of the Titans

    When Guy?

    It is time
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Everything you said above is no different from what Nick Foles did in 2013, only his passer rating was actually better than Tannehill's, both in an absolute sense and when adjusting to a common year.

    In fact if you adjust Foles's 2013 passer rating to 2019, it becomes 125.3, 7.8 points higher than Tannehill's in 2019.

    So sure, we can say both Tannehill and Foles "killed it" in 2019 and 2013, respectively, using your words. But why did that happen? That's the question.

    Do you know the answer definitively? No, you don't. And neither does anyone else here.
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I've been exploring the relationship between NFL offensive line performance and passing game statistics since 2012. The issues there are that 1) offensive lines don't vary greatly across the league, and 2) their performance isn't strongly associated with passing game statistics. So the notion that Tannehill's offensive lines were crap and were somehow responsible for his performance doesn't hold, at least in terms of the objective evidence available.

    Now, that's what I did way back when, because the issue then was that Tannehill's sacks were supposedly the fault of his offensive lines. I was willing to explore a Dolphins-related explanation at that point.

    At this point, however, it makes little sense in my opinion to make a case for how seven straight years of surroundings, across many combinations of players and coaches, were somehow "crap." The probability of that is so low that it makes more sense to explore how 2019 may have been a unique situation, and await additional information from future seasons to provide certainty about the matter.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is just wrong. I don't care what "stats" you made up. The logic of it makes no sense and runs completely against how every team in the NFL acts.

    You did it wrong. You misrepresented stats back then (I was involved in the debates) and you continue to misrepresent them now.

    This is where you REPEATEDLY get yourself in trouble. Probability of a past event is IRRELEVANT. It has already happened. This the point in the conversation that I say you are standing in the rain insisting that the weather forecast called for no rain.

    I SHOWED you the OL turnover and the incredible number of players that were out of the NFL after playing significant snaps for the Dolphins in their final year. It didn't happed just one year. It happened every year from 2013 - 2016, which is the exact time frame that was so problematic. Once again, you IGNORE facts that don't fit your narrative.

    Thank you for confirming that you have no idea what you are talking about.
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We already went over this. Personnel turnover along the offensive line is meaningless if the variable that mediates its relationship with quarterback play -- that being actual offensive line play -- 1) doesn't vary a great deal across the league, and 2) weakly predicts performance in the passing game, including sacks.

    One swallow doesn't make a summer, and one data point doesn't make a correlation. But one data point can represent a larger finding.

    Take a look for example at the 2019 Dolphins' offensive line. Lots of turnover, supposedly horrendous personnel, worst in the league in pass block win rate. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick's performance wasn't predicted by the Dolphins' offensive line performance for precisely the reasons I mentioned above, those being 1) the worst team in the league in pass block win rate isn't all that much worse than the average one, again because offensive lines don't vary a great deal, and 2) offensive line performance doesn't strongly predict performance in the passing game.

    Consequently Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to play in a way that was far better than you would predict on the basis of your reasoning. Likewise, Tannehill's performance 2012-2018 had little to do with his offensive lines.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't agree, and never will agree, for adjusting every passer rating from every year, to compare. It's one thing to adjust a 1973 passer rating to compare to today. It's another thing to adjust when there isn't a significant rules change to account for.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It makes every bit of sense when you realize how many of those coaches and players completely washed out of the league.
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You're also coloring stuff a bit. Tannehill was a very raw rookie, playing on absolute **** teams. I'd hope an established veteran would play better, in similar circumstances. And they're is no comparing Flores coaching and results with anyone before him that Tannehill played for.
     

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