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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.8%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.1%
  4. An above average QB

    38 vote(s)
    55.1%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    23.2%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.8%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I certainly wouldn't exclude Rodgers and Wilson from that group given their career histories and the fact that they just posted passer ratings of 113.7 and 106.5 in a playoff game against each other.

    As for "top ten," that's a meaningless designation when 14 of the last 15 Super Bowls have been won by either the elite QBs, or by non-elite ones who were on their rookie contracts. Top five or six is what's needed, unless you have a QB who's on his rookie contract.

    This is again why the Dolphins were smart to move on from Tannehill and target an elite QB.
     
  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I just rewatched part of the Titans-Ravens game. Many people have mentioned that Tannehill should have had a TD pass before the Henry TD pass but he should have had another two plays before his TD run also. Dropped pass by Smith. He legitimately should have had 4 TD passes.
     
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  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Since 2000, 13 QBs that were either not elite yet, never elite, or no longer elite have won the SB. Out of the remaining 6, 3 were Brady, 1 each for Rodgers, P. Manning, Brees.

    Here is my list:

    2000 Trent Dilfer Never
    2001 Tom Brady Not yet
    2002 Brad Johnson Never
    2003 Tom Brady Not yet
    2004 Tom Brady Not yet
    2005 Ben Roethlisberger Not yet
    2006 Peyton Manning Elite
    2007 Eli Manning Never
    2008 Ben Roethlisberger Not yet
    2009 Drew Brees Elite
    2010 Aaron Rodgers Elite
    2011 Eli Manning Never
    2012 Joe Flacco Never
    2013 Russell Wilson Not yet
    2014 Tom Brady Elite
    2015 Peyton Manning No Longer
    2016 Tom Brady Elite
    2017 Nick Foles Never
    2018 Tom Brady Elite
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The one big disagreement I have there is with Wilson. He's in category 2 at worst IMO. Guy is elite (or right below it depending on definition). Otherwise I mostly agree as long as we're talking about only 2019. Career ratings look very different.
     
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  5. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Guy's logic is completely flawed. He seems to think that the ONLY thing that makes a quarterback "elite" is one that throws a gazillion passes in a game, but the thing is though, the numbers he relies upon fail him. The more a quarterback throws a ball, the lower the quarterback rating it equates. So since it equates to a lower quarterback rating, then the rating system itself is flawed.

    He "looks" at "elite" quarterbacks who have championships...Brady, Brees, Rodgers...those who are up and coming stars such as Mahomes and Jackson....sees the "numbers" but when those same numbers are used against him, in this case Tannehill, he can't make the counter argument, so it turns into a "high volume" versus "low volume".

    What makes a player...a quarterback "elite" isn't his numbers...its whether or not he wins.
     
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  6. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    I believe two were drop TD passes.

    So if those were convered, Tammy would of finished the game with four TDs and one Rushing TD, correct?
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    High- versus low-volume is precisely why Lamar Jackson performed poorly last week, and precisely why apparently few if any people here give Tannehill a chance against Mahomes this weekend. So if what you're talking about is winning Super Bowls with a quarterback, and playoff games hinge on whether they can perform well enough to help their teams win in a high-volume passing game, then that designation has far more meaning than the mere meanderings of a nobody on a message board like myself.

    Is this quarterback elite?

    https://www.pro-football-reference....mp=gte&c1val=0&c5val=1.0&order_by=points_diff
     
  8. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Why do you call him Tammy? Did I miss something?
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There are many flaws with the passer rating formula, but that it doesn't increase with number of passing attempts within a game is not a "flaw". It certainly tends to increase with passing attempts over a career because better QB's last longer. It also tends to increase within a game if you leave out the 4th quarter because you're removing the effect of running out the clock. It's just the nature of the game that passer rating doesn't increase (on average of course!) with more passing attempts in a game. That's not a flaw however.

    You want a true "flaw" in the formula. Try this:
    Completions: 15
    Attempts: 20
    Passing yards: 200
    TD's: 3
    INT's 3
    => passer rating equals 106.25

    Now.. try increasing the number of TD's to 4. Same rating of 106.25. Increase it to 5. Same rating. Increase TD's to 12. Same 106.25 rating. THAT is a true "flaw" in the rating system. Same if you increased INT's instead of TD's. You get 106.25.

    Why does that happen? Because they assumed the relations are all linear (as in each additional TD or INT has the same effect no matter where on the scale it is), and they ran into obvious problems with passer rating going into the 250+ etc.. if they didn't try to artificially correct that mistake. They corrected it by setting maximum thresholds, which is why a "perfect" passer rating is 158.3.

    THAT is a flaw. They should have assumed the relation is sigmoidal not linear and they'd never have to introduce artificial thresholds.
     
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  10. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Its the samething I call Mariota, "Mary"-- it happens when the QBs are fragile, although I dont think RT17 isnt as fragile as Marcus is.
     
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I wouldn't argue. I really like Wilson and IMO it is splitting hairs a bit.
     
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  12. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Tannehill fragile? He’s the opposite of that.

    That’s like calling Brady fragile because he took a helmet to the knee.
     
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  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No still 4 TDs total, just all passing TDs. One of the drops resulting in the Henry TD pass the other resulted in the Tannehill TD run.
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    A little information to back up my claims. I have included the regular season passing yards, TDs, INTs, and rating for each of the QBs for the year they won the SB.


    Yards TDs INTs Rating
    2000 Trent Dilfer Never 1502 12 11 64.3
    2001 Tom Brady Not yet 2843 18 12 86.5
    2002 Brad Johnson Never 3049 22 6 92.9
    2003 Tom Brady Not yet 3620 23 12 85.9
    2004 Tom Brady Not yet 3692 28 14 92.6
    2005 Ben Roethlisberger Not yet 2385 17 9 98.6
    2006 Peyton Manning Elite 4397 31 9 101
    2007 Eli Manning Never 3336 23 20 73.9
    2008 Ben Roethlisberger Not yet 3301 17 15 80.1
    2009 Drew Brees Elite 4388 34 11 109.6
    2010 Aaron Rodgers Elite 3922 28 11 101.2
    2011 Eli Manning Never 4933 29 16 92.9
    2012 Joe Flacco Never 3817 22 10 87.7
    2013 Russell Wilson Not yet 3357 26 9 101.2
    2014 Tom Brady Elite 4109 33 9 97.4
    2015 Peyton Manning No Longer 2249 9 17 67.9
    2016 Tom Brady Elite 3554 28 2 112.2
    2017 Nick Foles Never 537 5 2 79.5
    2018 Tom Brady Elite 4355 29 11 97.7
     
  15. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    W/L is not a QB statistic. It's a team measurement and a stat that should be used for HC's only.
     
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  16. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just because a QB has a weakness does not automatically mean that
    1) Opposing Ds can easily exploit that weakness, or
    2) That the QB is “average”

    Tom Brady has a weakness in that he is susceptible to interior pressure. He is still the GOAT according to many people.
    Brian Griese and Troy Aikman are 2 QBs that needed string running games to thrive. Both are multiple SB winners and in the HOF.

    QBs who are without weaknesses are very few and far between, and even then that does not guarantee Superbowl success.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure how that pertains to the post you quoted. The post you quoted indicated that due to Tannehill's deficiency in performing well in high-volume games, he needs his own pass defense to shut down opposing QBs who have the ability to put lots of points on the board (like Mahomes), thus eliminating Tennessee's run game. That makes him no different from the average QBs in the league who need stellar pass defenses to win at a high level, despite his own very high regular season passer rating.

    Again there's a reason why few if any people here are giving Tennessee a chance this weekend, and that's because the ingredients of the game are such that 1) Tennessee's pass defense can't stop Mahomes, which will cause 2) Derrick Henry's usual role in the game to be vastly diminished, and 3) Tannehill to have to win the game in a high-volume passing duel, where he has nowhere near the ability of Mahomes.

    Those are all issues that, in effect, make Tannehill no different from the average QB in the league.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You should adjust ratings by era if you're going to compare like that. The average passer rating in 2000 was 78.1 while it was 92.9 in 2018. Without going anything complicated, just take the season average ratings here:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    And take the passer rating for a given year, divide by the league average that year and then multiply by league average in a target year. Example: Brady in 2001 had a 86.5 rating. League average according to that link was 78.5. To adjust everything to 2018 where league average is 92.9, just calculate (86.5/78.5)*92.9 = 102.37.

    BIG difference in how "impressive" the ratings look once you take into account league averages. That method of adjusting is more or less accurate from 1978-onwards because the standard deviation in passer rating has remained relatively stable during that time (for teams it's about 11). So that's a quick way of "adjusting" if you don't want to calculate z-scores. Anyway, just saying.. if you're going to post ratings to make a point like that, you need to adjust for league average.

    btw.. same is true for the other stats.
     
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  19. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Vs that's your entire opinion based on nothing but what an algorithm says.
     
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  20. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Did you watch the game? The defense that they played took away the edge run while maintaining middle discipline. That took Jackson out of his run game. The defense also maintained their lanes and got to Jackson causing what 5 sacks. was he even sacked 5 times all year in a game? Also his receivers dropped a lot of balls. Not sure how you adjust for that in your algorithm. Oh that's right, playing a defense that made an adjustment that Harbough couldn't figure out isn't part of the equation because all playoff teams have better defenses so defenses don't matter. Just stats. Did you adjust for dropped balls? And I meant the receivers. LoL.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Because it's not Tannehill vs Mahomes. Further, you making it about a high volume passing game is dishonest. A game can turn into a high volume passing game, but it doesn't have to, if the defense plays well. So essentially, you're arguing that if the defense plays like garbage, and Mahomes throws a ton, then that means that the Chiefs defense will play like garbage too, so then Tannehill should have plenty of opportunity to throw a ton also.

    You cant possibly believe that. So then we have to look at it, and realize that if the Titans defense plays badly, and allows Mahomes to throw and complete a ton of passes, that DOES NOT mean that we can automatically expect to see Tannehill throw a ton of passes. Throwing a ton either means you have many completed passes, allowing you to have extended drives, or you have many possessions, but not many completions per possession, resulting in giving the ball back. Tannehill will still be throwing against the Chiefs defense. If their defense plays well, then there's a good chance that Tannehill doesn't get a ton of throws in. That won't necessarily be his fault. Looking at the box score isn't going to tell you the reasons for things happening.
     
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  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That's fine. I don't think it changes anything. 102 would be Jimmy G this season and nobody is calling him elite. That is my point. When Brady won his first three SBs, he wasn't yet the elite QB. In support of that, Brady was 23rd in attempts that year. Adjusting for the 15 games he played in, he probably moves up a few spots. Jimmy G was 19th. Tom Brady 2001 = Jimmy G 2019.

    Likewise when Peyton won his second SB, he was no longer an elite QB.
     
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  23. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    "I feel like nobody in the NFL can guard any of us," Hill said, according to James Palmer of the NFL Network. "I mean that's no disrespect to nobody. That's just the confidence I got in myself and the wideouts I got around me, including the tight ends and the running backs. I feel like no DB unit, no secondary unit, no linebacker, or any defense can guard any of us. So man to man is just easy for us to beat. And if you just allow us to just run through zone, it's even easier."

    Hill caught just three passes for 41 yards against the Texans, but his running mate Sammy Watkins caught two passes for 76 yards, and tight end Travis Kelce was virtually unstoppable, as he caught 10 passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns.

    In two postseason games, the Titans have allowed an average of 277 yards through the air, which is the most by any team alive in the postseason other than the Chiefs, who gave up 348 passing yards in their one playoff game. The 51 points the Chiefs scored on Sunday are also the most points any team has scored in the postseason this year. The Titans have been great defensively, however, and have allowed just a total of 25 points in the wild-card and divisional rounds.

    In the Chiefs' Week 10, 35-32 loss to the Titans, Mahomes threw for a season-high 446 yards and three touchdowns -- despite the fact that he had missed the previous two games due to injury. Hill caught a career-high 11 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown in Tennessee earlier this year, and while the Chiefs put up 530 yards of total offense, the Titans still found a way to get the win.

    Sunday should be another interesting matchup between these two teams, with a spot in Super Bowl LIV on the line
     
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  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LOL, I'll answer the 2nd question for him.

    1) Mahommes
    2) Wilson
    3) Brees
    4) Rodgers
    5) Anyone but Tannehill.
    6) Anyone but Tannehill.
    7) Anyone but Tannehill.
    8) Anyone but Tannehill.
    9) Anyone but Tannehill.
    10) Tannehill! Oh wait, nope. Anyone but Tannehill.
     
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  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    One comparison that I find interesting and helps make my point, especially since some people have trouble distinguishing between the Brady of 2001 and the Brady starting in 2007. That is comparing Marino in 1984, Brady in 2001, and Mahomes in 2018, both in their stats and in what people were saying about them at the time. All three were in their second year. There is a 17 year gap between Marino and Brady and a 16 year gap between Brady and Mahomes. That is about as even as you can get.

    Marino put together a great season. People were talking about him being a great QB at that time. He won the MVP. He was 1st team all pro. The same is true for Mahomes last season. None of those things were true for Brady in 2001. He was not an elite QB at the time and nobody thought so. BTW, Brady won his first MVP in 2007.

    After looking at the numbers, it is remarkable how similar Marino's numbers in 1984 are to Mahomes' numbers in 2017. Just goes to show how unbelievable that 1984 season was.

    Hey, cbrad, how about adjusting Marino's season to 2019 numbers?
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'll just list for you the z-scores (more accurate than the method I described earlier) for Marino, Brady and Mahomes by year (minimum 150+ passing attempts for each season listed).

    Marino
    1983: 1.8057
    1984: 2.7992
    1985: 1.0655
    1986: 1.6955
    1987: 1.3028
    1988: 0.7186
    1989: 0.1087
    1990: 0.4805
    1991: 0.8622
    1992: 0.8363
    1993: 1.8693
    1994: 1.1211
    1995: 1.0550
    1996: 1.2966
    1997: 0.3289
    1998: 0.1366
    1999: -0.9065

    Brady
    2001: 0.8084
    2002: 0.5665
    2003: 0.6719
    2004: 0.7495
    2005: 1.1214
    2006: 0.7350
    2007: 2.9871
    2009: 0.8857
    2010: 2.3339
    2011: 1.6253
    2012: 1.1388
    2013: 0.1097
    2014: 0.8587
    2015: 1.3585
    2016: 2.0384
    2017: 1.6086
    2018: 0.4004
    2019: -0.2641

    Mahomes
    2018: 1.7433
    2019: 1.3879
     
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  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Marino
    1984: 2.7992

    Brady
    2001: 0.8084

    Mahomes
    2018: 1.7433

    Exactly what I was getting at. No comparison in their seasons, yet Brady gets the ring.
     
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  28. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    ALL of this flies in the face of the Tannehill narrative while he was a Dolphin:

     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    They "found a way" in that they had 225 yards rushing. Since 2014, there have been 171 regular season games in which one of the two teams involved had at least 200 yards rushing. The teams with at least 200 yards rushing won 156 of those games (91%).

    So if Derrick Henry can somehow muster his usual output, the Titans have a chance. Even with his running the ball 23 times for 188 yards in their previous meeting against the Chiefs, and the Titans' as a team running the ball 26 times for 225 yards (over 8.5 yards a carry), they nonetheless beat the Chiefs by only 3 points.
     
  30. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    I would like to see TEN use Tannehill more on some run plays like they did last game vs KC.
     
  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'm fairly certain he'll rack up more rushing yards than the last several games. He's gonna need to be on his game in this one.

    And there's gonna be some trick plays, no doubt.
     
  32. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    :pity:

    Ok, here's what you need to ask yourself Mr Elite Quarterback drum beater...

    What does it say to you when a quarterback throws for 446 yards, 3 touchdowns and 530 total yards offensively against a team that throws only for 181 yards, 2 touchdown passes and RUSHES the ball for 188 yards...with 2 touchdowns...what does that say about the high volume quarterback play?

    Hmmmm, not enough?

    What about the team that threw the ball 48 times for 272 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions against the team that only threw the ball 18 times for 259 yards, 2 touchdowns, ran the ball for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns...oh and the QB also ran for 2 touchdowns?

    Ooooh, how about the team that threw the ball 40 times...for 319 yards!!!only 1 touchdown but 2 interceptions and their starting running back only ran the ball 11 times against the opposing teams offense that only threw the ball 22 times for only 182 yards BUT had 2 touchdowns and no interception and a running back that ran for 149 yards and 1 touchdown.

    I could keep going and going and going to illustrate this simple point and that simple point is this...when teams throw the ball THAT many times in a game...and you can't RUN the ball...against a team like Tennessee, you're going to LOSE!!!!

    Oh and just for S & G's...."if Henry can somehow muster..." :sidelol:
    So now Derrick Henry's performance this season is some kind of aberration?!?!?!?!?!?!? :sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol:
     
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  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I see that The Guy didn't ANSWER the question. Don't hold your breath Cash...you'll pass out first.
     
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  34. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    The bold.

    One of those years were NE vs Carolina in the SB, correct? Brady HAD a huge game and was solely the reason why they won.

    I think he became elite in year 03-04
     
  35. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    In football terms:

    top physical skills + rapid mental processing + longevity = elite.
     
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  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Still high 80s low 90s passer rating. Less than 2:1 TD to INT ratio. 3600 yards passing. Still not the elite QB. 2007 was the year.
     
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  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    cbrad has gone over with you many times the correlations between rushing efficiency and winning, and between passing efficiency and winning, in the NFL.

    If Henry "can somehow muster," meaning that he's had over 30 carries in three consecutive weeks, and he led the league in regular season rushes this year with 303. We'll see what kind of legs he has this weekend.
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That would be a good wildcard to throw in there, similar to how Clemson did that with Trevor Lawrence against Ohio State and caught them by surprise with that. They'll likely need some additional source of offense in that game.
     
  39. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    And the teams that run the ball efficiently like Tennessee does, WIN! It's a FACT!
    100 yards against the Falcons; Won 24-10
    188 yards against the Chiefs; Won 35-32
    159 yards against the Jaguars; Won 42-20
    149 yards against the Colts; Won 31-17
    103 yards against the Raiders; Won 42-21
    211 yards against the Texans; Won 35-14
    182 yards against the Patriots; Won 20-13
    195 yards against the Ravens; Won 28-12

    Oh, and these rushing yards...that's JUST Henry and not Tannehill's rushes or rushes by any other player on the Titans team. Effectively running the ball wins virtually every time!

    3 games in a row of over 100 yards...8 games this season rushing over 100 yards and he's somehow going to lose his legs? :001_rolleyes:
     
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  40. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    This is the best post in this thread, but there really isn't that much competition.
     
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