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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If multiple defenders are reaching the quarterback significantly more often than for the average team, that suggests a team has significantly weaker pass protection than the average team. How then does such a team keep its quarterback's pocket clean just as often as the average team?
     
  2. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    First you found one stat that makes it look like the O-line was average here and now you keep hanging your arguments off of that concept. However if you go to footballoutsiders website here is there rankings for pass protection:

    2018 - 31
    2016 - 21
    2015 - 24
    2014 - 19
    2013 - 30


    If the line was keeping the pocket clean as much as an average line, then I would expect their ranking to gravitate towards center of the pack in ranking. That is not what you get from the average of his line play.

    So how does a team give up the same amount of pressures as an average team but the pass protection is ranked so poorly? Well one way is that you give up pressure to teams that are rushing fewer defenders. So if the opponent rushes 4 and gets to the QB in the same amount of time as a team that rushes 6, what would be the expected result on QB? I mean in this scenario you have the same outcome you are looking at, both teams are getting pressure, but one of those pressures is much much worse.

    I'm sure there are other metrics that can effect the overall rating of the Pass protection, but my point is they aren't average, so making any claim that Tannehill had an average anything from that line here is flat out wrong.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You can't determine deviation from the mean with league ranks.

    cbrad did a good job of explaining that here:

    https://www.thephins.com/posts/3217584/
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2019
  4. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    But you can determine average based on a single stat picked out of all of the available stats? Damn it, I suck at statistics...
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Certainly if you have the frequency of pressure experienced by every quarterback in the league for whom there is five consecutive years of data, you can easily determine an average frequency of pressure experienced by those quarterbacks and then calculate how much, if at all, any single quarterback deviates from that average.
     
  6. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    So you don't care if a team has to use 4 players, 6 players, 11 players, 11 plus the mascot to get to the QB and cause that pressure. As long as its pressure you have figured out average? So you actually believe all the other things collected about the O-line can just be thrown out?

    Statistically speaking if we were a truly average offensive line what is the likely hood that we would constantly end that far out of deviation from the ranking of pass protection, and not have that ranking actually mean anything? Seems like flip of the coin if we were 15-17 but it would get WAY more unlikely as we landed further and further away from it, but always on the same side.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The more players an opposing team needs to apply pressure on the quarterback, the better a team's frequency of pressure surrendered should be.

    By the same token, the fewer players an opposing team needs to apply pressure on the quarterback, the worse a team's frequency of pressure surrendered should be.

    If a team is often surrendering pressure on its quarterback in the face of a mere four rushers, then that team should be among the league's worst in overall frequency of pressure surrendered. Yet that isn't what we see with the 2012-2016 Dolphins.
     
  8. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Bold prediction, all things considered. Tannehill's sack percentage is better than Mariota's and he's certainly an upgrade as a passer, but Mariota knee-capped them with loses leading them to a 2-4 record to start the season.

    The Titans are currently 5-5 after going 3-1 since the QB change, but still have to play the Colts with Brissett back, Jags with Foles back, Saints, Raiders, and the Texans twice. Have to find 4 or 5 wins in there.

    Certainly doable, but they only have a slim margin for losses.

    If the OL get's its act together and stops the bone headed plays (Lewan had three stupid penalties alone against the Chiefs), the receivers stop the drops, and they continue to feed Henry, then they could do it as long as Henry stays healthy and the defense holds up.
     
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  9. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    If you can average the same level of pressure rushing 4 as you can against most teams rushing 6 you might rush 4 all day long and feast on the QB having to make quick decisions. IF on the other hand you can't get pressure on a QB with 4 you will implement schemes and blitzes that makes it possible to still maintain an average number of pressures on the QB in a game, while trying to disguise the 5th and 6th man of pressure.

    My point is you are drawing absolutes that aren't absolutes, its up to the defensive coach in that scenario.

    I'm not sure why we are going back and fourth on this point. You don't actually believe that the O-line was average/good while Tannehill was here do you?
     
  10. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Franchise records... not stats or passer rating.

    No one said he was a better QB than Marino, just that he has a large number of franchise records.

    Dolphins franchise records
    Most passing completions in a single season 392 (2014)
    Most passing completions in a rookie season 282 (2012)
    Highest completion percentage, career 62.2% (2012-2016)
    Highest completion percentage in a single season 66.4% (2014)
    Most passing yards in a rookie season 3,294 (2012)
    Most passing attempts in a rookie season 484 (2012)
    Longest rush by a quarterback 48 yards (2013)
    Longest rush by a rookie quarterback 31 yards (2012)
    Most consecutive pass completions 25 (2015)

     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Those are stats. And most of those need to be adjusted for era.

    For example, the average number of passing completions per season has increased from 285.5 in 1983 to 358.2 in 2018 (25% increase). Average completion percentage has increased from 56.9% in 1983 to 64.9% in 2018 (14% increase). Average passing yards has increased from 3274 in 1983 to 3804.3 in 2018 (16% increase). etc...

    You absolutely have to adjust most of those stats by era to get any kind of realistic comparison among QB's.
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What I believe is that none of us will find an objective measure of quarterback pressure surrendered league-wide that indicates the Dolphins were significantly worse than the average team during Tannehill's time with the team.

    And if the line was truly so much worse than that of the average team, that shouldn't be difficult to find.
     
  13. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    For some percentages, I agree, but you're discounting everything in blanket statements.

    Marino never ran for any of those records, nor did he complete 25 consecutive passes, even if adjusted. Same with passing yards as a rookie.

    I do think it'd be interesting to compare those nine records to former Fin QBs though.

    https://www.profootballhof.com/players/dan-marino/highlights/
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. let's remember that the context of all this was to show that Tannehill is actually a very good QB that was being held back by others. In that context, what matters are the overall volume and efficiency passing stats, all of which need to be adjusted by era.

    You're right that the rushing records stand, but that's not showing Tannehill is a very good QB. And the rookie record is only because Marino started 9 games while Tannehill started all 16. The 25 consecutive passes also stands but that doesn't show Tannehill is a very good QB being held back by his surroundings. So in the context in which these records were brought up, you need to adjust stats for era.
     
  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Have you watched any Jets’ games this season?

    Adam Gase has their OL doing the same as what he had our OL doing - blocking well one play then allowing complete whiffs the next. I read the Gang Green forums for the comedy gold, but there was one poster there who started a thread about how Gase’s emphasis on non contact drills in the off season was causing this problem for them. Some other posters who played college ball agreed with his analysis.
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The simple fact of the matter is that no one is tracking how much (ie number of people) pressure a QB gets. Acting like that doesn't matter is exactly like saying a damn with a pin hole leak is as compromised as a damn with a massive leak, because in both cases water comes through it.

    Maybe the perception of of some of us is wrong and Thill didn't face more rushers at once then most other of his contemporaries, but what isn't wrong is how handicapped Thill was by his coaches in dealing with the pass rush. No one can deny that being allowed to audible and committing to the run are tools QBs have to combat the pass rush, that Thill didn't have.

    Again, people have this weird binary notion that the pass rush is all individual effort by rushers and stopping it is all individual effort by the oline or all individual effort to scramble by the QB.
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm not acting like it doesn't matter. What I'm saying is that a team that surrenders pressure from a greater number of players than average should also surrender a greater frequency of pressure than average, but that isn't what happened with the 2012-2016 Dolphins.
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    How does that comport with the fact that Tannehill played the best football of his career under Gase?
     
  19. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    I didn't say anything about them proving he's a good QB, great QB, Elite, or any other nonsense.

    You're so busy trying to trump every thing said to prove that Tannehill is a bad QB that you're taking things out of the context in which they were meant. I could care less about these arguments, I just post in this thread for amusement because you had guys celebrating him being traded and stating that he'd never do anything anywhere else, be any better than he was here, nor able to compete for a starting gig, etc., and now he's taken Mariota's job and has the Titans still relevant after a rough 2-4 start and led them to a 3-1 record.

    As for the discounting his team records, you can beat up half of the guys in the HOF with such stuff when the bottom line is that either a guy did something and got the record, or he didn't. Not that some other guy might've done the same or more or better IF he'd played during the same time period or game.
     
  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    But there's no basis for saying that.

    You're making standing by an assumption that has nothing in the way of facts behind it.
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Gase let him audible and committed to the run.

    2016: Miami was 16th in rushing attempts. (Ajayi's breakout year)
    2015: 32nd
    2014: 22nd
    2013: 29th
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    For the team that surrenders pressure from a greater number of players than average, what variable(s) cause that? If the same team keeps its quarterback's pocket clean as often as does the average team, what variable(s) cause that?
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    lol.. dude if you're going to criticize something I said in response to a post then don't take the original post or my response out of context. And no I'm not hell bent on bashing Tannehill. I go with what the data say which is that he is average. My only argument regarding his performance in Tennessee is that it's too small sample size to determine if there's anything statistically different.
     
  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I've given examples already. Here's more....

    - Defenses can commit more or less guys to the pass rush based on how good or bad the oline is.
    - Defenses can commit less guys to the pass rush based on how bad the oline is and have more guys in coverage, making it even harder to get rid of the ball.
    - A QB not being able to audible out of a play means the defense can sell out and jailbreak there pass rush.
    - Bad play calling. Long developing plays, for example, (like Lazor loved) meant there was less outlets when pressure got there.
    - Rarely running the ball, means the defenses can just tee up on the oline and are less likely to have substitution mismatches to exploit.

    The list can go on and on...
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Did Bill Lazor let him audible? Because he played just as well for Lazor in 2014 as he did for Gase in 2016.

    The correlation between the Dolphins' season rushing attempts and Tannehill's season passer rating between 2012 and 2018 is -0.26, meaning that the more the team ran the ball, the lower his passer rating was.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    None of those things explains how the same team is able to keep its quarterback's pocket clean just as often as that of the average team.
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No he didn't. He had good games, but it wasn't;t as many or to the degree that is was in 2016.

    You are straight up muddying the water with over analysis and an importer use of the stats.

    You have said previously his best year was 2016. Since then, you claim it was the same as 2014, then ignore that actual evidence and instead dilute it by averaging in worse years.
     
  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Yes it does. I legit don't know how else to explain this to you.
     
  29. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    No, I was criticizing your criticizing TDK's post about the records. I posted the actual records because he actually "owns" those records. IIWII.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Right and like I said before, since TDK was trying to use those records as an example of why Tannehill was a good QB being held back by others, I pointed out you need to adjust stats for era. I agreed with you after you posted the records that Tannehill would still own some of those records after adjustment, but the key stats (for the argument TDK was making) need adjustment.
     
  31. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  32. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Almost certainly. PFN is following in ESPN and Football Outsider's footsteps by "explaining" their metric without ever actually explaining it. It's what people do when they don't want you to see why what they're selling is flawed. Here's their "explanation":
    https://www.profootballnetwork.com/pfn-offensive-share-metric-nfl/

    Note that the section "How is OSM calculated" gives you absolutely no idea how it's calculated.
     
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  34. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    12 pages on a Tannehill thread lol.
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You also still have the sample size issue here, despite that the author attributes the performance to coaching.
     
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  36. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Tannehill’s best statistical year was his first year under Lazor.
     
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  37. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Titans have the 26th ranked run blocking o line and 31st ranked pass pro one this year according to pro football outsiders. Whether or not you buy into that ranking in full or not doesn’t much matter. It hasn’t been a carry tbe qb group lets put it that way.

    Is it possible that Ryan’s just now getting back to pre injury in 2016 form when he was playing a plus qb and having missed what 2.5 years of game action 2018 can be chalked up to rust and concern about the stability of his knee? I think the rust thing in terms of timing played out on tape in 18. He was a tick late with the ball out of hand relative to route concept a lot in 18. He’s not this year. Maybe the knee thing is a reach maybe it’s not. I just know it doesn’t seem to be a concern this year. No knee brace and moving free and easy pre injury like.

    Also he doesn’t have a utter eye sore in his lead leg in Dallas thomas anymore either. Another plus. Just about every time he dropped back thru 2016 week 5 after which thomas was cut by gase that dude was in his lead leg or throwing arm even.

    And don’t get me started on tbe cutting billy turner after being in a dire left tackle situation for one week and throwing him in there witb little to no reps even. That was just overreaction by gase. He’s playing a decent athletic right guard in Green Bay these days. Which is where he should have been in Miami all along but I digress.

    there’s been a lot of dumpster fire o line play in Miami in tannehills tenure. O lines that just about to a man graded out bottom level at their position. Be it run or pass pro.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  38. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    It shouldn't matter, we were never going to keep him here. He had six years to show us something. Last season....maybe call that a rehab season after the knee injury, but the point being...He had his opportunities. Sure, playing under Philbin and Adam F Gase stunted him, but his best season coincidentally was the 2016 one under Adam Gase...Right before the knee injury. I think the knee injury changed a lot more than we all think. It was a major setback for a player that was finally peaking at the right time of his career.
    I've noticed a trend with players that have knee injuries or basically any injuries where they miss a ton of time. That trend being the first year back healthy, they spend most of that year shaking off the rust and gaining confidence back (unless you're Adrian Peterson). We saw it last year with Dalvin Cook and Deshaun Watson. Both came off of knee injuries that required a lot of time to rehab and both looked a step off. This year Cook leads the league in rushing and Watson is in the running for MVP.
    It's no surprise to me that a change of scenery, with better coaching, better running game, better O line, and a year of rehabilitation under his belt that Tannehill is flourishing in Tennessee. I'm happy for the guy.
     
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  39. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Actually there is a plausible mechanism for what's being described. If you are a coach and you know your team is going to give up pressure fairly quickly you can game plan around it ie bubble screens, RB and TE left in for extra blockers, run heavy game plan, move the QB from position. You do all of these accepting that it will make your offense more and more anemic, but keeps the pressure relatively low.

    What you can't do is game plan around it when you have no choice but to go for the win in the game or make a serious effort to pick up 3rd and longs. At that time the defense will have the ability to bring extra pressure giving more jailbreak pressure opportunity. thus you can have more jail break pressures without a noticeable uptick in number of pressures across the average of the game.

    I'm actually not saying that's what happened in Miami cause I didn't research that, I just wanted to bring up that its not out of the realm of possibility to see that discrepancy.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I noticed that too and immediately discarded OSM as a thing. With that said though, Tannehill has looked good this season and he is playing well. I really don't need an advanced metric or a fancy algorithm to show me that.
     
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