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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.8%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.1%
  4. An above average QB

    38 vote(s)
    55.1%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    23.2%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.8%
  1. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I remember the Pats coming back against the Falcons with that dominate running game. I'm not sure Brady even threw a pass in the second half of that game. :smile:


    A run game and defense has been a staple of winning in football for a very, very long time. It's only slightly less effective due to the hitting and passing rules that make defense harder to play.

    Building the rest of the team is important, but getting the right QB is THE MOST important decision. Unless you build the 2000 Ravens roster or even the 2015 Broncos. Then you can get by with average at QB. That is a rare feat and it falls apart very quickly in the salary cap era.

    So, find your QB. Protect your QB with a good OL. Get after the other QB with a good DL. Running game and good secondary. That's a path to sustained success.

    BTW, the Packers won versus Seattle due to some great throws by Rodgers to close out the game. It wasn't their run game or defense that won it for them at the end. The Packers are trying to win with Rodgers doing less though. The Chefs are all about Mahomes and he will carry that team or they lose. The Titans and 9ers are more about the run game and defense with good enough QB play. Either way can win it all for you.
     
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  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Amazing, isn't it?

    Derrick Henry facts:

    2016 - 12th in yards per carry. 4.5 YPC
    2017 - 19th in yards per carry. 4.2 YPC
    2018 - 13th in yards per carry. 4.9 YPC
    2019 - Games - 6 - 3.7 YPC
    2019 - Games 7 - 18 - 1st in yards per carry. 5.9 YPC

    2016 - 32.7 yards per game
    2017 - 46.5 yards per game
    2018 - 66.2 yards per game
    2019 weeks 1 - 6 - 62.7 yards per game
    2019 weeks 7 - 18 - 136.5 yards per game

    Yet, people still want to argue.......
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Sounds like Marino-itis.

    No, I don't want a QB that is solely dependent upon to "carry his team." I want a GOOD TEAM, starting with the HC and staff...#1. Having a great defense isn't one injury away from everything falling apart. Having a very good overall team doesn't go away when one player has a bad game. What happens to Baltimore / KC / Houston if their QB has a bad day? The '80s/'90s Dolphins did how well when Marino had bad days (and he had plenty)?

    Miami ditched an outstanding team QB that this year alone has:

    - Immediately transformed his team's offense and led them to numerous #1-#3 statistical standings across the entire NFL, as a unit.
    - Taken his team's rookie WR from being an afterthought, to leading for OROY.
    - Made 2nd/3rd string role-players a factor in the passing game.
    - Led 3 game-winning-drives and 2 4th-quarter-comebacks on the way to a 9-3 record.
    - Allowed the team's rushing-title-winning RB to fully break out and reach that achievement.
    - Attained multiple top rankings in numerous QB statistics.

    Go after a QB, yes, if you get lucky and snag a Marino/Mahomes, awesome, but that is not a reliable strategy to bank everything on. If you have a QB that is very reliable, can occasionally carry the team himself when needed, very efficient, and is a hell of a teammate and role model, chasing him away because you think you'll suddenly find next Wilson to carry your ****ty team through the post-season is plain stupid and Cleveland Browns'ish.

    If you had to choose between a Wilson or a Patriots team minus-Brady, who would you pick?
     
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  4. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Yeah. I'm not saying you don't need a QB just that he's no longer the end all he was in the 2000s when peyton, Brees, brady, big Ben and Rodgers were winning. In the 2010s you needed more than just a QB
     
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  5. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    But how does that correlate to the winning percentage of teams named after an animal after a full moon has occurred?
     
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  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I will put it in my computertron so I can get the T score
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Apparently you're failing to see how the point you're making revolves around Tannehill's very low number of pass attempts in the playoffs, and how that has never resulted in a Super Bowl appearance during exactly the era you're talking about (2010 on).

    So you're taking information that's highly relevant to your point (which is mistaken by the way) and caricaturing it as irrelevant.
     
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  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    If the Chiefs, Saints, Packers had Derrick Henry, you can bet your *** those QBs wouldn't be carrying their team to multiple wins.

    Tannehill has made throws THIS YEAR with a level of difficulty that those guys didn't make...and that was backed up by Next-Gen Stats...but there's still inference here that he's "average." Some people's kids...
     
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  9. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    How so. A run first team can't be forced to throw? That's usually what happens in your playoff run. A defense forces you out of your tendencies.
     
  10. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Everyone talks about Henry but that second TD throw by Tannehill killed the Ravens. Game was literally over at that point
     
  11. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Grier seems to be going for the better QB. That is the approach he has chosen since he got complete control of the roster. You might want to find another hobby to enjoy for the next 3-4 years, as Miami tries to build around Tua, who they view as elite and is the first real piece of the roster rebuild Grier will put in place.

    Let's be clear that the Titan approach won't work all that long. Henry will get hurt or worn down in a couple years from all the hits. Your window is 3-4 years, while a great QB gives you a chance for 10+ years. The Titans window is now though and if they win it all, no one will mind it can't be sustained for very long.

    The Packers are finally trying to give more help to Rodgers, who is no longer in his prime. Good move, but they've been relevant for how long thanks to his elite QB skills?

    The Chiefs live and die by Mahomes, but they'll be in the playoff mix as long as he is playing at an elite level. If they manage to give him a run game and better defense then they are looking at multiple Super Bowl appearances.

    The 9ers are enjoying the high draft picks and rookie contracts that years of losing brought them. They have a nice window, but once they DL has to be paid and if the run game falters they can't rely on Jimmy G to carry them. He looks better than he really is thanks to the team around him.

    As for your Wilson or Patriots minus Brady? I don't want either team. Wilson needs a good defense to pair with his ability to carry the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots could plug in an average QB and win 10-11 games but won't be a serious playoff contender. Give that average QB more offensive weapons and then they have a shot at a deep playoff run or even Super Bowl. That's team and coaching making up for the lacking QB play though.

    Let me add this; The Tua move is a swing for the fence. If he works out Miami is in the playoff mix most every year and if Grier can get a run game and defense in place we can get back to the Super Bowl and even win it. This success should last for 10 years or so. It might not if the hip injury comes back to haunt Tua, but getting the best QB you can and building around him is the way I want to see it done. I'm tired of the Jake Long/Chad Henne good enough QB and better players around him approach to building a team.
     
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  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I made this exact point earlier, and it was ignored.
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Maybe I misunderstood your point then. What I thought you were saying is that a team can get to the Super Bowl by emphasizing the run game, and deemphasizing the passing game, to the extent the Titans have.
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Titans had a 65% probability of winning at that point, but without a running back the caliber of Henry, how much can they control the game from then on? The degree to which an early lead is effective is a function of how dominant your run game can be, even when the opposing team knows it's coming.

    In other words, even when Tannehill's performance helps the team get out to an early lead, his ability to be on the backburner from then on is a function of Henry. Put Patrick Laird in there and see how much Tannehill has to perform from then on, even with a 14-0 lead.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Of course it's possible...the Titans are one game away. The REASON is that opposing defenses haven't been able to stop the run. I don't think the Patriots wanted to stop the run. I think they were perfectly happy to let Henry run rampant, and work to stop Tannehill from hitting bombs on them. And frankly, it worked. Their offense needed to only score more than 15 points. Henry only scored 7.
     
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  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    AAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Wrong. They're not just going after a QB. Where did the build start? How is the build progressing?

    Through coaching. EVERYTHING starts with coaching.

    They already tried getting a QB that could carry everybody, including the coach, and that's just a lose recipe...and they finally figured that out...AFTER they wasted 7 years of an excellent QBs career.

    Yes they're going after a QB...that's what you do. That's what every team HAS to do. Are you saying Tua's going to carry the team? You really believe that? Nobody knows, we'll see.

    But IDC if you throw a Rodgers or Mahomes into a crap team without good coaching...they aren't going anywhere. Look at the Packers, with arguably the best passer at QB in history (definitely top 3), for the last several years. I'll pass.
     
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  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Its historically documented that Belichick takes away your #1 weapon, particularly in the playoffs. What did he take away in the Titans game? Should tell you all you need to know.
     
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  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Still no breakdown of Tannehill's 15 passes, I've noticed.
     
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  20. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Na. I don't think you can be too one sided. You want balance or near balance. With Tennessee it's near balance. The passing game has to be good enough to move the team when the run game is shut down but ideally you want to run because that's where the strength is. Tennessee still need some receivers
     
  21. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That lone play made the Ravens completely shift their offensive game plan. You could see it as clear as night and day. And that fed into what the Titans wanted.

    Edit: The 2019 Ravens allowed a passer rating against them of 77 on the year, and they were BY FAR the top NFL defense 2nd half of the season. Tannehill was over 100.
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    He acts like overemphasizing something automatically means you're de-emphasizing something else...that's not inherently true, and that line of thinking is pretty ignorant.
     
  23. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I said, "roster rebuild" as there are really only a handful of players that will be on the team three years from now. :smile: We can credit Grier with getting the coaching right (though I had my doubts at times this season) but my comment was regarding how the roster is going to be built.

    I'm also not saying Grier expects Tua to carry the team. At least I hope that isn't the plan. Having a QB that can win you a game you should have lost is pretty awesome though. I'd love for Tua to be at that level, but let's stack the deck in his favor with a great run game and defense. I think Grier understands that.

    Totally agree with you that the coaching has been severely lacking for a very long time. Give a bad coach a great roster and he'll drag them down to average-good and waste the best years of talented players.
     
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  24. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    It's way more detailed than that and a common media and fan misconception. Yes, he'll lock up your top weapon, but that's the simple starting strategy of every defensive gameplan.

    What Belichick strives to do is take away the offense's top targets in specific down and distance situations. He has a plethora of ways to do so, though mostly with double teams he employs which can be applied to any offensive position with traditional doubles (top to bottom), and brackets (inside-out).
     
  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I hope he's elite too. They've given up so much to get him, I REALLY hope it works out the best way it can. I'm just not convinced yet. I don't see the guy making it through too many 16 game seasons in one piece. But if it does work out and the CAN build a capable team around him (which is all many of us ever wanted for Tannehill), totally worth all the trashing of the roster, shipping away of talent, and the risk taken.
     
  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya its an oversimplification, but it was obvious he was worried about the PA game, at the forefront.
     
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  27. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    This thread had me in a tizzy a few weeks ago but now it's safe to say that we've entered analysis paralysis.

    Tannehill is the ONE AND ONLY reason why the Titans are where they are. Without Tannehill the Titans likely finish 6-10. He stabilized the offense over the inept Mariota. Even if his usage drops in the playoffs he's still the primary reason for their success. There is no Henry playoff beast mode without Tannehill.
     
  28. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    NE took away AJ Brown who was coming off that 124 yard game the week before. NE has been a very good pass defense team all year but struggled to stop the run. Tenn was just a bad match-up for their defense. If NE could have scored enough to make Tenn abandon the run then they probably could have pulled out the win, but their offense wasn't good enough to allow their defense to play to their strength.
     
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  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    "Average QB."

     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Over NFL history (SB era) it's -0.2744, meaning that winning teams tend to have fewer passing attempts. If you look at the distribution of rushing attempts or passing attempts, you'll see that the discrepancy is on average (not every game of course) due to the 4th quarter when the winning team is running out the clock and the losing team has to pass more.

    Anyway.. in general I wouldn't use passing attempts to evaluate QB's because of two factors:
    1) You pass more when you're behind, especially late in the game
    2) You pass more if you have a better QB and rely on that QB to win

    The problem is that #1 outweighs #2 on average, and unless you're going into some more detailed analysis to separate the two (one could do that by looking at passer rating over just quarters 1-3) I wouldn't use passing attempts on its own to study QB's. Same reason you don't want to use rushing attempts to study RB's because of the "kill the clock" confound.

    Efficiency measures are better in both cases: passer rating for QB's and Y/A for RB's, though I have to say there's no a priori reason why we can't create a "rusher rating" similar to passer rating. Where attempts comes into play with efficiency stats is reliability. Fewer attempts = less reliability in the measure.
     
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  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Exactly my point.
     
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  32. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    You only feel that way cause we are Dolphins fan. When you have an organization that doesn't suck at finding FA talent, and constantly screws up the draft then what the Titans do is very sustainable. Before Tannehill started bringing the Titans players into the spotlight how many of their team was considered elite? Maybe Henry? They sent a total of 2 guys to the pro bowl, they aren't loaded with tons of FA cap eating veterans.

    People WANT to say that Tannehill is doing all of this cause he is surrounded by AMAZING talent, but the truth is, most of that talent needed Tannehill to pull them out of obscurity. Nobody was talking about the elite team Tennessee put together at the beginning of the year, now cause Tannehill is playing great we are pretending they are the 85 chicago bears, and Tannehill is just lucky enough to have fallen into the QB seat???

    None of this is a shot at Tennessee, they are building a team the right way, which makes this all the more impressive. They are going to be good and competitive for awhile. It also helps that the Dolphins picked up most of the tab for Tanny this year. It is going to go down as the most lopsided trade since Dallas/Walker trade.
     
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  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Your question is irrelevant. Gee, I'm Robert Kraft. Do I keep Brady or Belichick? That's a REAL possible scenario, but your silliness isn't.

    But I'll entertain your continued dumb statements with this simple observation.

    Week 1-6, Tennessee Titans:
    Starting quarterback; Marcus Mariotta...Heisman Trophy winner, 1st round draft pick
    Starting running back; Derrick Henry
    Record; 2-4

    Week 7- Present
    Starting quarterback; Ryan Tannehill
    Starting running back; Derrick Henry
    Record; 7-3
    Wildcard Playoff Victory; 8-3
    Divisional Playoff Victory; 9-3

    Now would you PLEASE...I'm almost BEGGING you to STOP THE NONSENSE!!!!! Ryan Tannehill is playing ***ELITE*** football.

    Done...over...end of discussion.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Nobody would measure QBs' individual performance on the basis of pass attempts, but when you're trying to determine the degree to which a team's performance is due to the QB or to other factors, then the portion highlighted above becomes relevant given that the passing game is so much more strongly correlated with winning than is any other part of the game in the NFL.

    In other words, given that the passing game makes teams win in the NFL, when a team is winning while getting an exceptionally small contribution from its quarterback in terms of quantity, it becomes very difficult to say the team is winning because of its quarterback.

    What's happening, rather, is that the team is putting its quarterback in a game manager role, the quarterback is playing well enough not to lose the game himself, and some other part(s) of the team is making the team win.

    And that's all well and good if it works, because winning is what matters, but again there remains the question of how well that team can perform if and when its quarterback has to take a larger role.

    And that applies to any team and any quarterback, not just Tannehill and the 2019-2020 Titans.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
  35. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    If Belichick did indeed take away AJ, he was dumb. He should of game planned for Henry.

    Henry is match up proof right now. Im not sure how you game plan for him...
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    1. If a QB threw only 5 passes in the game, and they all were TDs, would you be claiming that he didn't throw enough to be considered for credit for the win?

    2. What if a QB threw only 10 passes. But they were all on 3rd down and 7 went for first downs?

    Honestly, you are trying so hard to discredit Tannehill, acting like his play didn't impact the game. But you're, AGAIN, or more rightly, STILL, wrong. He threw a TD and ran one in right? Tannehill had twice as many TDs as Henry (see what I did there? ;) ). But I guess you're right...Henry had a better passer rating on the game, so next game they should start Tannehill at RB and roll with Henry at QB.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Completely disagree. Henry scored one TD against the Pats. The Patriots only needed to score more than 15 points to win that game. It was absolutely the right game plan, but their **** offense couldn't function. Last game, Henry only scored one TD. The numbers he's putting up are insane, but he's not scoring tons of tds. Henry running a ton and eating clock doesn't matter, as long as your offense doesn't suck.
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's not just for that reason. It's because there has been only one Super Bowl win in the past 15 years by a team with an average quarterback who wasn't on his rookie (i.e., cheap) contract. That gives you an idea of how difficult it is to assemble championship-caliber talent around an average quarterback and sustain it long enough under the salary cap to win a Super Bowl.
     
  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Neither of those things necessarily have to be true- he likely just felt that it was time for a change and they could do better building through the draft. Regardless of who the QB is, you need that line and that running game anyway, and the biggest mistake we've made in recent years is not prioritizing that. And if Grier can't build those pieces then the rest doesn't matter...just look at the playoff teams remaining and how they're successful. None of their QB's are getting laid out at frequent intervals.

    Honestly though, Fitzpatrick could lead us on a deep playoff run...but we need those bodies in the trenches, the secondary, the offensive weapons, etc. for that to happen.

    Some people here love to say, "Well look at Russell Wilson and how he does it all himself." Yet they're ignoring that fierce defense, that great run game they had, etc and just focusing on the QB throwing passes. As we've seen from Tennessee, you don't want to have to ask your QB to throw 50+ times a game...you only pass that much when the rest of the team is forcing the QB to put the entire team on their shoulders. We did that with Tannehill for far too long and it's why we were a perennial 8-8 team.

    In other words, the problem never was the QB...not even under Osweiller. It was always the team in general, the defense giving up a billion yards, etc.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
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  40. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I haven't watched a Chiefs game in quite a few years. Thier disgusting choices and turning a blind eye to bring in pieces of dung like Kareem Hunt, Justin Cox, Frank Clark, Tyreek Hill, etc.are unacceptable to me.
     
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