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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    NextGenStats on #Titans ' Tannehill:
    -- 2nd-highest QB rating of weekend (133.9)
    -- Longest in-air pass completion of weekend (57 yds)
    -- Threw 31.6% of pass attempts into a tight window (defender within 1 yd or less), 2nd-highest pctg. of weekend


    *Ryan Tannehill's 133.9 passer rating today vs @Chiefs gave him his third passer rating over 100 in four games since taking over the starting QB role for the @Titans.

    Tannehill was credited with his 16th career game-winning drive, including his 3rd in four starts with #Titans .

    *In his last 16 starts, Ryan Tannehill has thrown for:
    3191 passing yards
    28 TD's
    13 INT's
    & 9-7 team record.


    * Titans have made 10 trips to the red zone since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting quarterback in Week 7. They’ve scored touchdowns all 10 times.

    Tennessee now leads the NFL with 72% of red-zone trips resulting in a TD.

    perMCM
    • Passer Rating: 107.7 (7th in the NFL)
    • Completion Percentage: 70.2% (5th in the NFL)
    • Net Yards Per Pass Attempt*: 6.99 (10th in the NFL)
    • Pass Success Rate: 50% (11th in the NFL)
    • Yards Per Offensive Play: 6.3 (5th in the NFL)
    • Yards Per Rush Attempt: 5.31 (3rd in the NFL)
    • Points Per Game: 26.3 (10th in the NFL)
     
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I ****ing love it.

    Love. It.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It turns out Tannehill actually performs slightly better than average against better defenses and slightly worse than average against weaker defenses, though the effect is truly marginal. In fact, the best description of Tannehill is that he's just average.

    Below I plotted passer ratings adjusted to 2019 (I did not include Tannehill's games this year.. so this is only Miami games) against the year end passer ratings allowed for each team he faced. The dotted line is the identity line, meaning that's what you'd expect a perfectly average QB to perform like. The purple line is Tannehill.
    [​IMG]

    So, there are two things that have to be noted when looking at this kind of plot:
    1) Where do the lines intersect
    2) How do the slopes of the lines compare

    The intersection of those two lines is at 92.17 which is almost exactly at the 2019 league average (so far) of 92.3. So the intersection point tells you that on average Tannehill is.. average.. against pass defenses (it's no surprise.. Tannehill is statistically very close to a truly average QB no matter how you look at things). That is, it's not like most of the time he's playing above average or below average.

    The reason the slope is important is because it tells you whether the QB performs better against better pass defenses or against weaker pass defenses. And you can see that Tannehill actually performs very slightly better against stronger pass defenses.

    So while this says nothing about your "clutch" statement (there you can use evidence with his splits that he was really bad in Miami when trailing late in the game for example) it does show that he wasn't making his living against weak pass defenses while here in Miami.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2019
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Me too, but I love that this six-week Tannehill thread actually started talking about Tannehill again even more!
     
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  5. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I could care less about stats or what a game winning drive constitutes. Despite these numbers backing up his level of play. I’ve seen all 4 starts and watched every snap even and he’s played a plus qb in Tennessee thru 4 games on tape. I don’t care what anyone cherry picks numbers wise etc. the tape says as much and Tennessee’s happy to have him.

    could that change yep it could. But it’s probably gonna revolve around the level of o line play he gets the last half the season.

    Cause his timing witb the ball out of hand is back to pre injury form.
     
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  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    People generally make their opinion and then manipulate the stats to back it up.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Interestingly enough, he’s experiencing the highest sack percentage of his career this season.
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Remember when some of us were arguing that sack% is not the data you want? You need to look at how much pressure is coming and from where.
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What do we know about that for this season?
     
  10. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Just to add to this, he has been a fun QB to watch this season as well. That might have more to do with the lack of stress since the end result doesn't matter as much to me. But, to me, it feels like he is loose and he is throwing darts. He is actually having fun challenging the defenses he plays. I'm no QB guru, nor am I anywhere near as football smart as some of these coaches, but it feels like the coaches here got in his head, and he needed to get to a team that would be willing to let him play his ball. IF this is Tannehill ball this is what we should have wanted the entire time here.
     
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  11. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    We dont and we would need to watch the games and plot the data as far as I know.

    However, it's not a big or bad jump in logic to assume more pressure = worse decisions and ability to improvise. In other words...it is tougher to deal with two free rushers than just one. Every play with major pressure doesnt have to be a sack to impact the final result.

    If hes being sacked at the same rate but performing better, either there is a reason for that or he just randomly improved. I'd lean towards there being a reason....but what is that reason?

    Granted it could still just be a good stretch of games.
     
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  12. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    The eye test says that he is taking some extra sacks trying to push the ball. This and his pocket awareness is the one thing I have had to agree with the anti Tannehill crowd on. What isn't happening is train wreck jail breaks that he often got here. Those type of pressures change the game, causing him to check down quickly and take the 3yd pass when we needed 15yds. Now he is getting more consistent line play(NOT GOOD LINE PLAY, just consistent), so he is willing to take the occasional sack to play a more competitive/aggressive game.

    I also believe that his pocket awareness has looked better this year. Its still probably a bit below average, but he has been making up for it with quick release and good WR anticipation.

    I completely understand people wanting him to do more to prove that this isn't a fluke, but here are some things that we can say right now:

    He has given the Titans 1/4 a season of great QB play.
    He took a Titans offense that was horrible, and has them playing like a top 10 unit right now.
    His redzone efficency is off the charts right now, and even if he comes back down to earth its still crazy what he has done.
    He is doing all of this surrounded by good not great pieces. Henry is a monster running back, but they have mostly unproven WRs, and average line play. Also Henry seems like he is benefiting as much from Tannehill as Tannehill is from him.
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again it'll take a while to make any definitive meaning of what's happening.

    In 2014 he had a four-game stretch in which his passer ratings were 125.6, 81.8, 114.8, and 104.9.

    At the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, he had a four-game stretch in which his passer ratings were 124, 89.9, 123.1, and 155.3.

    Compare the above with his past four games in which his passer ratings were 120.1, 109.8, 82.3, and 133.9.
     
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  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I (and a few others like resnor and danmarino) took an inordinate amount of **** for years, because we said Thill was behind a terrible oline but given no help from coaches to combat it.

    - There was no commitment to the run game. (That is different than a successful run game.)
    - He wasn't allowed to audible.

    He had awful OCs and mostly awful olines and mostly awful WRs.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion, the most definitive objective information we're going to get about his performance in Miami in that area is here:

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

    What the table on that page shows is that Tannehill had the worst decrement in performance of the 18 quarterbacks measured between 2012 and 2016, as a function of experiencing pressure.

    What the table also shows is that the Dolphins during that period didn't surrender a significantly greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks than the other teams measured.

    So to believe that the Dolphins were surrendering a "type" of pressure that was especially detrimental to Tannehill, one would also have to believe that the Dolphins' offensive line was no worse than average at surrendering pressure in general, but significantly worse than average at surrendering that particular "type" of pressure.

    It simply isn't logical to believe that an offensive line is average in one way that reflects its ability, and at the same time significantly below average in another way that reflects the same ability. A team that surrenders a particularly overwhelming "type" of pressure is also going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general.

    The far more logical explanation for what we see in the table is that Tannehill just simply isn't good at managing pressure.
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    And what we've always said is that pressure is marked the same whether there was one rusher breaking through or 3. Thill had a lot of jailbreak pressure and he didn't have the outlets to combat the pressure like most others did.

    You're not bringing a new argument here.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again, however, a team that surrenders a greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure is going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general. The offensive line isn't going to be terrible in one way that reflects its ability ("jailbreak" pressure surrendered), and yet average in another way that reflects the same ability (pressure in general surrendered).

    Again the far more logical explanation is that Tannehill simply wasn't good at managing pressure, which easily explains the decrement in his performance when under pressure and comports with what many people in this thread have opined about their observations of him. There isn't an internal inconsistency involved in that explanation.
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Your first sentence isn’t true. That is an assumption.

    Again, people act like the only way to combat pressure is to scramble. It isn’t. Keeping defenses honest is the best way to combat pressure. You do that with a commitment to the running game and being able to audible. Thill never had a commitment from the running game and wasn’t allowed to audible until Gases first year.

    I’m not saying he had great pocket presence, I’m saying he didn’t have the avenues available to him that were afforded to most of those other QBs he’s being compared against.

    I mean, my god, Sherman has him yelling “go” for run and “go go” for a pass, for crying out loud.
     
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  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again QB pressure is not graded looking at how many people were putting pressure. One guy putting pressure is different than 3 guys putting pressure. If you have one guy on your line who's a problem, you can plan for that, and be aware. When 3 guys are allowing pressure, you can't plan on it...you don't know play to play where the pressure could be coming from.

    This isn't rocket science, and your precious stats don't distinguish this information.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You'll both have to help me understand how an offensive line that, according to you, was so bad that it surrendered a significantly greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure -- over the course of five consecutive NFL seasons -- was at the same time no worse than the average team in the league at surrendering pressure in general.

    See if you can put together an explanation for that that's internally consistent.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's been explained ad nauseum. At this point if you don't understand the point, there's no way to explain it. But I'll try with a simple example.

    QB 1 takes pressure on one snap, from one defender, resulting in a sack. QB 2 takes simultaneous pressure from 3 defenders, resulting in a sack. Stats would tell us that both QBs faced the same percent of pressure on dropbacks, and had a similar sack%. But in reality, they did not have the same pressure, despite your stats not showing that.
     
  22. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is ridiculous. If Ross should fire Grier over anything it’s for not drafting Lamar Jackson.
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You're answering the question of whether "jailbreak" pressure on the quarterback simply exists. I don't dispute that it exists.

    The question, however, is how an offensive line, over a five consecutive year span, can surrender that kind of "jailbreak" pressure at a significantly greater rate than the average team, while at the same time keeping its quarterback's pocket clean just as often as the average team.

    How exactly does that happen?
     
  24. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Add me to that mix Tony. I was beating that same drum and blasted for it.

    We had a GOOD quarterback in Tannehill and never gave him the support he needed to be successful
     
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  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I disagree. The MOST logical explanation is our coaching staff wasn’t able to adjust and left Tannehill as the sacrificial lamb led to the slaughter.

    Tennessee seems to be adjusting just fine.
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    He was just as successful for the Dolphins during the two, four-game stretches in 2014 and 2016/2017 I mentioned above. The statistics in the post you quoted don't meaningfully distinguish Tannehill's past four games from those other two stretches of four games.
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, any OL that surrenders more "jailbreak" pressure will also surrender more pressure in general. There's no plausible mechanism for that not to be the case. Furthermore, you could probably model the percent of "jailbreak" pressure fairly well by treating the probability that any player on the OL makes a mistake as independent of the probability that any other player will make a mistake, since mistakes are made by individuals. And that would mean the probability of "jailbreak" pressure is just a calculation of joint probability, which means you could probably infer the distribution of pressure due to 1, 2 or 3 players from the overall pressure statistic.

    Can't test that directly yet, but I bet it's a good approximation.

    Which brings us to another important point: people claiming Tannehill had more "jailbreak" pressure than most other teams aren't actually providing any evidence for it. It's all assumption based on watching primarily the Dolphins OL, which I agree was bad. But this season has been interesting for me regarding OL play because I am watching more games by other teams, and man.. there are a LOT of teams that allow tons of this "jailbreak" pressure. Dolphins don't look at all special with regards to the percent of "jailbreak" pressure when you watch the rest of the league. Lots of QB's have to keep scrambling around to avoid it.
     
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  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's that as much as a combination of two things-

    #1- Tannehill wouldn't hear/see pressure coming from his sides like a typical QB should. He stays laser-focused downfield.

    #2- The biggest problems we faced in terms of pressure was a LB coming through the B gap untouched. The line didn't block it and RT didn't see/hear it coming.

    I would believe that the pressures were at an average rate, but Tannehill can't sense that pressure and when someone comes untouched through that B gap...it's going to be bad news all around. He doesn't step up in the pocket because he doesn't know he's about to be leveled...so to correct that either you don't play him or you get faster, more agile guards that are solid in pass protection. We didn't do either
     
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  29. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    We had it in 2016 before he got injured. Then the Tanny haters went on a full blast get rid of him campaign before he's recovered from his injury because once he recovers we'll never be able to get rid of him. Even though he played last year it always takes two years to fully recover from his type of injury
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    He played no differently, statistically speaking, during that period of time in 2016 than he did in the same number of games (4 through 16) in 2014.
     
  31. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    It's not just for that. But being told we need to tank for Tua or some other QB and then winning games and destroying the tank, being told to get rid of young budding superstars like Minkah and tunsil and then not tanking for number one pick again. The tanking of the season was grier's idea from what I understand. Getting rid of Tannehill because we need a franchise hall of fame QB was Griers idea also. If TaNnehill gets the Titans into the playoffs the whole reason for tanking in the first is shot to **** and then why would you keep the Moron That can't identify Qb talent on his very own roster?! This is the moron you're going to allow to pick our franchise savior next gen QB?! No you fire him and get someone who won't waive a tannehill, won't blow a 2nd on a Rosen bust and might actually be able to identify QB talent
     
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill's getting the Titans into the playoffs won't mean much if he continues to play the way he has throughout his career, because that pattern of play doesn't readily translate to a playoff run. Lots of average QBs can get their teams to the playoffs -- and you can argue that he largely got the Dolphins there in 2016 -- but only a fairly small percentage of playoff runs and Super Bowl wins are commandeered by average QBs.

    Now, if he continues playing for the rest of the year like he has during the past four games, and gets the Titans through the playoffs and to the Super Bowl with that caliber of play, well then you'll certainly have a strong argument for what you're saying.
     
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  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Actually they do. We drafted Tannehill and expected a lot from him...and he did indeed produce. Tannehill owns 9 Miami Dolphins franchise records, eclipsing the great Dan Marino and yet he is still the fall guy for the team rather than placing the fault on oh say...Joe Philbin, Adam Gase or any of the other members of the coaching staff that made STUPID calls and when they didn’t pan out, blame Tannehill instead.

    I’m about to make a prediction...Tennessee is going to the playoffs, Tannehill will be named the Comeback Player of the Year and Dolphins fans are going to be crying that we lost him
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Let's say the average %of pressure on dropbacks in the league is 10%. Three dolphins could have the same % of pressure or drop back, but that doesn't tell you if it is one defender, or multiple defenders. That's the point. You guys act like the stats tell you that, but they don't. I remember seeing Tannehill being pressured from both ends and up the middle more often than not. I don't regularly see the same thing when I watch other teams.
     
  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Adam, I truly believe that the main reason Tannehill was traded was due to the salary cap. Miami paid him a HUGE sum of money and if you’re going to rebuild, you have to trim the fat
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    A case study in what happens when you don't adjust stats for era. I mean.. Tannehill's career passer rating is 87.8 while Marino's is 86.4, so if you don't adjust for era it's pretty clear: Tannehill > Marino using stats right?

    Yeah.. adjust for era and Tannehill is average while Marino is one of the best ever, which IMO is a far more accurate representation.
     
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  37. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Fair enough but he was coming off the books after this season so it wasn't going to help us anyway. Saving money this year is to the benefit of Ross not the Dolphins.

    Maybe we're going to try to build a SB team while having a QB under a rookie contract like Seattle did way back when. Build a crazy defense, good running game and simple but effective passing game and do it quickly before the rookie QB can negotiate his first contract
     
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  38. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Fair enough. Let's say he has to win in the playoffs. At least get to the AFC Championship. LOTS OF GOOD QBs haven't been to the SB (rivers, stafford, etc). This way it proves he can win in the playoffs and if you can win in the playoffs you can win a SB
     
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  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    My best answer is teams attack weaknesses at opportune times. Having three weak offensive linemen may not result in regular pressure at an insane rate, but the inability to deal with the defense attacking that spot in certain situations absolutely creates increased chaos in times where you need to convert.

    Teams also have different weaknesses along the line. Having just a bad RT may result in the same pressure % as an average LG and RT but the pressure would be less predictable and thus harder to deal with generally in the second case.

    When the pressure can come from any and all angles you lose that small bit of predictability the QB has.

    Its also not addressing the fact that the ability of the OL often dictates how many additional blockers you leave in at RB/TE which also reduces the amount of outlets a QB has to dump the ball off. So there is hidden data here about how each team attempted to protect their QB that makes it slightly incomplete.

    Maybe some of the teams close to us used Max Protect schemes which improved their overall %. Maybe we used Max Protect schemes more and gave up the same %. See what I'm saying?

    In other words...the data isnt wrong, it's just incomplete and not taking things into account that youd see watching each game. It's more of a starting point than a finished product.

    If I needed an overview of the ability of each QB to deal with pressure I'd absolutely use that list as a starting point. I'd just go further into detail when looking at specific players and teams situations.
    Basically what you're doing is saying "This is the rule and there cant be exceptions" but we all know there are tons of exceptions and possible circumstances.

    Also I dont think your logic is wrong, its a strong logical argument actually and it holds up when looking at the league overall.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2019
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  40. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You have a very narrow view of things. Your take is binary.

    You are arguing as if pass blocking is one single action that never differs so a person is either always good or always bad at it.

    I mean I legit don’t even know how to explain the concept to you.

    Let’s say X team has a terrible left guard. He gets beat a lot. When he gets beat that means pressure is coming through his space. But let’s say the left tackle is decent and keep his guy engaged while also helping the guard. Even if that little bit of effort delays the pressure by a single second or gets the rusher off balance, then the QB has a chance to escape or sidestep.

    OR

    Let’s say the team runs the ball more so the defense can’t tee up.

    OR

    Let’s say the QB is allowed to audible based on defensive looks.

    I mean there’s numerous ways these numbers can happen.
     
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